Icelandic Parliamentary Election 2021

[nelson]

Final result for South-West (Reykjavik's satellite towns and exurbs). The Socialists' vote is so low here it's listed under "Others", I'll at it when I find the exact number.

IP 30.2
PP 14.5
LG 12.1

Reform 11.4
Pirates 8.3
SDA 8.1

People's 7.6
Centre 4.5
Socialists 3.0
Liberal Democracy 0.4

[nelson]

It's the first post-crash election without a new party entering parliament, and the "four old parties" (IP, PP, SDA and LG, the latter two are considered "old" because they're viewed as the direct heirs to older parties) will get around 65% combined. So hopefully the fragmentation of the Icelandic party system has peaked. 

[nelson]

Final result:

IP 24.4 (16)
PP 17.3 (13)
LG 12.6 (8)

SDA 9.9 (6)
Pirates 8.9 (6)
Reform 8.3 (5)

People's 8.9 (6)
Centre 5.5 (3)
Socialists 4.1 (0)

Liberal Democracy 0.4
Responsbile Future 0.1

[nelson]

Sept 26, 2021 6:48:46 GMT nelson said:

On current numbers no less than 34 of the 63 PMs will be women, which would be the first time the Althing has a female majority. 

Ended up being 33. 

[nelson]

Sept 26, 2021 9:47:55 GMT nelson said:

Final result:

IP 24.4 (16)

Second worst result ever, 0.7 points better the post-crash election in 2009. Better than the polls, but given Centre lost more than half its support and that almost certainly mainly went to IP it must still be disappointing. 

[jamie]

Europe Elects has decided that the People’s Party would be part of Renew, which is probably their worst designation since continually insisting the Swiss People’s Party (SVP) would be part of Renew as well.

[Andrew_S]

How are the current governing parties doing? I'm too tired to work it out for myself.

[nelson]

The last constituency result, the North-East which is mostly rural but also includes the country's "second town" Akureyri. 

PP 25.6
IP 18.5
LG 12.9

SDA 10.5
Reform 5.4
Pirates 5.3

Centre 8.9
People's 8.6
Socialists 4.1
Liberal Democracy 0.3

[nelson]

Sept 26, 2021 10:11:50 GMT Andrew_S said:

How are the current governing parties doing? I'm too tired to work it out for myself.

They got 37 seats combined - a clear majority. The Progress Party is the big winner, the other two lost support, though Independence kept their seats.

[Andrew_S]

Just seen this.

[nelson]

It seems like PP got the "Middle Iceland" vote, people who want better welfare without caring about whether it's supplied by private companies or public entities, and more housing, but no big tax hikes and please talk about "real problems" rather than endless bickering about the EU and the Constitution.

People's clearly got some leftist votes as well - and destroyed the Socialists' chances - with a clear anti-poverty and marginalization protest campaign.

The "liberal" opposition parties killed their chances by ultimate demands that meant they couldn't work with PP and/or LG. Both the Pirates doubling down on wanting the Constitution Council's 2012 draft put to a vote in parliament (even if it abolishes rural overrepresentation which PP and IP ofc can't accept and allows 15% of the electorate to put an issue to a referendum, which would equal EU and anti-protectionist referenda ad nauseam (which is why LG has also become status quo/minor twerks only on the Constitution). And SDA and Reform insisting that there should be a referendum on whether to resume EU membership talks (which the 2013-16 IP/PP coalition promised to put the matter to rest and placate IP's pro-EU wing (which is now in Reform), but ofc never did) basically meant there was no realistic alternative to the government, and rewarding the "middle party" in the coalition for a pragmatic pro-welfare campaign then probably seemed like a reasonable choice. Reform won a seat, but still finished well below their best polls and given that both SDA and the Pirates lost ground they must be disappointed. 

LG's dream from 2017 (where they ended up on 16.9% after a campaign where they'd touched 30% in their best polls) of finally becoming a big party by getting Katrín Jakobsdottir established as leader of the country failed, she has objectively performed well and kept most of her personal popularity, but it still doesn't rub off on her party and the government was viewed as an IP government in disguise by most left and centre-left swing voters and by a non-insignificant number of the party faithful. LG avoided disaster - and crucially remained ahead of the SDA - and they lucked out of getting a party to their left in parliament, but I doubt they can survive four more years in coalition with IP without splintering or collapsing in the polls. Especially because IP members, representatives and donors keep getting involved in scandals like fishing "giant" (by Icelandic standards) Samherji bribing their way to contracts and quotas from Namibia to the Faroe Islands. To a significant number of Icelandic voters (both leftists and centrists) getting the "corrupt" IP and their cronies out of office is their number one political priority, which is also why Bright Future collapsed after their participation in Bjarni Benediktsson's 2016-17 government. LG has much stronger roots than BF, but there is still a limit to how long they can "work with the enemy", and they've already lost their trade union base. 

[The Bishop]

Sept 26, 2021 9:47:55 GMT nelson said:

Final result:

IP 24.4 (16)
PP 17.3 (13)
LG 12.6 (8)

SDA 9.9 (6)
Pirates 8.9 (6)
Reform 8.3 (5)

People's 8.9 (6)
Centre 5.5 (3)
Socialists 4.1 (0)

Liberal Democracy 0.4
Responsbile Future 0.1

So what are the changes since last time?

[nelson]

Support for each side of the main political cleavages:

Protectionists: 46 (nc)
Liberals: 17 (nc)

Economic left: 26 (-2)
Economic centre: 13 (+5)
Economic right: 24 (-3)

Given that PP had a left-leaning campaign and the Socialists wasted 4 pp leftist votes it must be viewed as the electorate moving to the left despite both of the traditional left wing parties (LG and SDA) losing support.

[nelson]

Sept 26, 2021 11:00:41 GMT The Bishop said:

Sept 26, 2021 9:47:55 GMT nelson said:

Final result:

IP 24.4 (16)
PP 17.3 (13)
LG 12.6 (8)

SDA 9.9 (6)
Pirates 8.9 (6)
Reform 8.3 (5)

People's 8.9 (6)
Centre 5.5 (3)
Socialists 4.1 (0)

Liberal Democracy 0.4
Responsbile Future 0.1

So what are the changes since last time?

In seats:

IP nc
PP +5
LG -3

SDA -1
Pirates nc
Reform +1

People's +2
Centre -4

[Georg Ebner]

Gallup was best, i.e. had the lowest DeViation per party:

[nelson]

A recount in the NW constituency makes the election a lot less historic as it moves three levelling seats from female to male candidates (given that different parties get them), one of the female candidates is the youngest and first Muslim MP Lenya Rún Taha Karim (21).

So 33 male and 30 female MPs. 

Reykja­vík­ North

Jó­hann Páll Jó­hanns­son (SDA) gets in instead of Lenya Rún Taha Karim (Pirates).

Reykja­vík­ South

Orri Páll Jó­hanns­son (LG) gets in instead of Rósa Björk Brynj­ólfs­dótt­ur (SDA).

SW: 

Gísli Rafn Ólafs­son (Pirates) gets in instead of Karl Gauti Hjalta­son (Centre, former People's Party MP and ex-police chief).

NW: 

Bergþór Ólason (Centre) - of Klaustur scandal (in-)fame - gets in instead of Guðmund Gunn­ars­son (Reform). 


South: 

Guðbrand­ur Ein­ars­son (Reform) gets in instead of Hólm­fríður Árna­dótt­ir (LG).

[Georg Ebner]

The SeatMap at wikipedia must be incorrect - orange (=Vidreisn/C) are only 3 instead of 5 aso. Here is my try:

[nelson]

Looks like we may see more changes in the levelling seats. LG and the Pirates demand a recount in the South where Centre is ahead of LG by a mere seven votes.

Also, the ballots in the NW were left unsealed on the tables in a hotel hall, the hall was locked but several people could in principle havd tampered with the ballots before the recount, and the changes from the first count where relatively large. It doesn't look likely there'll be a revote, but given that it changed five levelling seats the criticism has been harsh.

Another of the losers from the recount Centre's lead candidate in South Karl Gauti Hjaltason wants a national recount.

...

PP had a genuine breakthrough in Reykjavík where they got double digits in both constituencies (12.3% in North and 11.5% in South) and became almost as big as the SDA (12.6%) and the Pirates (12.8%) in left-leaning Reykjavík North, it's notable that they got a better result in North, which includes the Inner City and some traditional working class suburbs than in the more "middle class-y" and wealthier South (11.5%) though rising rents and gentrification probably plays into this (IP got nearly 21% in North, not far off the 22.8% they got in South). They also beat the Pirates (10.9%) in South.

[nelson]

Sept 27, 2021 11:04:02 GMT nelson said:

Looks like we may see more changes in the levelling seats. LG and the Pirates demand a recount in the South where Centre is ahead of LG by a mere seven votes.

Also, the ballots in the NW were left unsealed on the tables in a hotel hall, the hall was locked but several people could in principle havd tampered with the ballots before the recount, and the changes from the first count where relatively large. It doesn't look likely there'll be a revote, but given that it changed five levelling seats the criticism has been harsh.

Another of the losers from the recount Centre's lead candidate in South Karl Gauti Hjaltason wants a national recount.

Karl Gauti Hjaltason (a former police chief) has now reported the recount of the votes and the handling of the ballots by the electoral commission in the NW constituency to the police, demanding a full investigation. He also says the results aren't credible. Looks like he's hoping for a revote. There's newer been a revote in a national election in Iceland, so I doubt he'll succeed. 

[nelson]

The Pirate Party in the NW constituency has appealed to the Althing's ballot committee and requested a new vote in the NW constituency, and they also consider reporting the constituency's Central Electoral Committee to the police. In addition to the ballots not being sealed they say that their representatives where not notified about the recount and that the electoral committee didn't wait for them to arrive after they found out about it.  

The National Electoral Commission is meeting today, but their chairman says the conduct was a clear breach of the electoral law, but that only the Althing (the old one as the new one hasn't been seated) can call a revote. 

Seems that the total number of ballots changed between the initial count and the recount, and if so that's obviously dodgy.