Icelandic Parliamentary Election 2021

[nelson]

New Gallup with difference from the previous poll. Disastrous poll for LG and the government's majority is gone. Looks like Inga Sæland might have saved her People's Party once more with her emotional appeal.

Going to be incredibly hard to form a government with that level of fragmentation and all three populist parties getting in. But PP's leader Sigurður Ingi Jóhannsson would be the most likely PM.  

Government: 44.6 (-2.1)
IP 21.2 (-0.8)
PP 13.2 (+0.3)
LG 10.2 (-1.6)

"Liberal" opposition: 34.4 (+2.5)
SDA 12.7 (+1.7)
Pirates 11.5 (+0.5)
Reform 10.2 (+0.3)

Populist opposition: 20.5 (+0.2)
Socialists 7.3 (-0.5)
Centre 6.2 (-1.4)
People's 7.0 (+2.1)

Others 1.1 (-0.6)

[nelson]

Sept 21, 2021 11:16:36 GMT nelson said:

Government: 44.6 (-2.1)
IP 21.2 (-0.8)
PP 13.2 (+0.3)
LG 10.2 (-1.6)

"Liberal" opposition: 34.4 (+2.5)
SDA 12.7 (+1.7)
Pirates 11.5 (+0.5)
Reform 10.2 (+0.3)

Populist opposition: 20.5 (+0.2)
Socialists 7.3 (-0.5)
Centre 6.2 (-1.4)
People's 7.0 (+2.1)

Another way of putting it:

Socioeconomic left: 48.7 
Socioeconomic centre: 13.2
Socioeconomic right: 37.6

Protectionists: 65.1
Liberals: 34.4

So there's a clear protectionist majority, but since the non-populist part of it (the current government) is in the minority there's no realistic way to form a government based solely on protectionist parties. So PP have to decide whether they want to go left or right, but the narrow socioeconomic centre/centre-right majority includes well known loose canon and egomaniac SDG and the liberals in Reform, which is one of the truly impossible combinations. So it seems overwhelmingly likely that PP will view working with the centre-left and Reform as the only realistic option on those numbers. 

The joker is whether the People's Party, despite all of their campaign promises pointing left, will after all be more comfortable with a centre-right government for cultural reasons, but it's very hard to see IP being willing to accept the sort of welfare spending necessary to placate the People's Party, and if Inga Sæland goes into government without getting serious concessions she's going to doom her party, and the PP leadership will be very reluctant to accept a government dependent on Centre or People's, and even less so one dependent on both. 

[nelson]

Icelandic Magazine Kjarnan's weighed average of the last polls from the five organizations polling the election show that 41% want Katrín Jakobsdottir to continue as PM, but that includes 45.2% of IP voters (more than prefer IP leader Bjarni Benediktsson..), so part of the answer to why Katrín's personal popularity doesn't result in more support for her party is that a lot of it comes from centre-right voters who'd never vote for the Left Greens.

The general trend is that LG is heading for disaster and may loose a third of their 2017 support and that IP is on track to get their worst result ever (below the 23.7% they received in the post-crash election in 2009), while the centrist parties Progress, Reform and SDA will gain, it's a bit more unclear how the Pirates will fare (and their voters are also notoriously unreliable). IP tends to overperform the polls a bit, but I'd still expect them to end up in the lower third of their post-crash 23-29% tier at best, and since younger voters are less likely to view IP as the default option when uncertain they may end up on 22% (but I'd still be surprised if they drop to the 20-21% they're at in several polls).

It's ironic that a government supported by a clear majority of the electorate is on track to be ousted, but a lot of centrist voters who are broadly content with the current government still have issues where they align better with one of the opposition parties and Icelandic voters are generally unwilling to vote tactically.

LG have committed two big tactical blunders since min-August when they were polling around 14%. First, Katrín Jakobsdottir declared that talks about continuation of the current government would be a "natural" first step following the election costing them a couple of points among leftist voters and she then recently said that it was not a given that she'd be leading the next government costing them support among centrists prepared to vote LG to keep her as PM.

[nelson]

42,700 had voted early by noon today, so the early vote will end up being at least 10% higher than the 39,000 who voted early last time (with a 202k total vote). The way the campaign has gone I'd expect the early vote to be better for LG and probably also IP than the day vote. 

[nelson]

It doesn't look like we'll get a final Gallup poll, which has been the most accurate in the previous elections. Unless they release it on election day, but there is no tradition of doing that. Gallup hasn't been hired by any of the major media, so that's probably the reason.

Below is Kjarninn's final weighed polling average made by a political scientist, which is probably the next best thing to a Gallup poll from the final days with the share of the polls in parenthesis. It includes the latest poll from the University of Iceland (usually with a small left wing bias) conducted 13-22 Sept­em­ber (14.1%). Pró­sent's poll for free tabloid Frétta­blaðið 17-21 Sept­em­ber (15.0%). The Frétta­blaðið polls have traditionally been garbage, but I dont' know who's behind Pró­sent and the poll may be legit, and MMR for the conservative daily Morg­un­blaðið (the mouthpiece of the IP right wing and the big fishing companies) from 20-21 Sept­em­ber (19.7%). MMR is a serious pollster and there's no reason to think they're biased but their polling tends to be quite volatile and I suspect their weighing is substandard, Gallup's poll from 13-19 Sept­em­ber (22.3%) and Mask­ína's poll for the private tv-station Stöðvar 2 and online media Vísir from 15-22 Sept­em­ber (28.9%). Maskína use very big samples (6,000 for this one), but their weighing is usually not as good as Gallup's.

Government: 45.1%
IP 21.2
PP 13.1
LG 10.8

"Liberal" opposition: 34.9%
SDA 12.9
Pirates 11.9
Reform 10.1

Populist opposition: 19.4%
Socialists 6.5
People's Party 6.5
Centre Party 6.4

Others: 0.6%

[nelson]

Well, we did get a final Gallup poll - and it shows the government being reelected with 35 seats and IP above 23%. 

Government: 50.3
IP 23.4
PP 14.9
LG 12.0

"Liberal" opposition: 30.6
SDA 12.6
Reform 9.2
Pirates 8.8

Populist opposition: 18.5
Centre 6.8
People's 6.4
Socialists 5.3

Others: 0.6
Liberal Democracy Party 0.5
Responsible Future 0.1

It had a response rate of 51.9% out of 4,839 contacted. So a big poll by Icelandic standards. Will be interesting to see how close they get. Maskína has adjusted their numbers for the government upwards based on additional interviews from the final days, so they're not alone in predicting a late surge for IP/PP and a slight improvement for LG. 

Those number would give a PP/LG/SDA plus Reform or Pirates majority, so not 100% certain it would result in a new grand coalition. It would be hard for LG to continue in government after dropping nearly five points. If the Socialist drop below the threshold there'd also be an IP/PP/Reform majority, but hard to see Reform go for that - their 2016-17 coalition with IP wasn't a success. 

[nelson]

47,600 have voted early, up from 39,300 last time. 

[nelson]

The polls are open from 9am to 10pm GMT and the constituency results will be in between 5.30am and 7am GMT tomorrow, probably closer to the latter given the huge number of early votes which take more time to count.

[jamie]

nelson Could you explain a bit more what the People’s Party are about? Are they more focused on left leaning economics or cultural conservatism? Same question for their voters.

[nelson]

Sept 25, 2021 10:25:41 GMT jamie said:

nelson Could you explain a bit more what the People’s Party are about? Are they more focused on left leaning economics or cultural conservatism? Same question for their voters.

I've written about them earlier in this thread and there was a discussion about the whole "cultural conservatism" aspect, but it's basically a party for people with "tough" lives, who are stuck in low income/low status jobs often precarious ones, the long term ill or disabled and poor pensioners. They want better welfare and housing and a more "just" and equitable society but dislike and distrust the well-educated "progressive elite" and are firmly on the protectionist (in Icelandic "conservative") side of the protectionist-liberal divide, some of them are mildly xenophobic but most aren't overly bothered. A lot of the people that had more right wing populist leanings have defected to the Centre Party. It's a "globalization loser" party so they dislike free trade, the EU, mass tourism, shop assistents and co-workers that don't speak Icelandic, and wokeness, but they'd like higher capital gains taxes and think the big fishing companies should "contribute more to society", and they don't want the state owned banks privatized. So it's a party for people who want leftist policies, but dislike the sort of people leading or speaking on behalf of the left. 

Nobody knows what Inga Sæland will do if she has the decisive votes and actually has to deliver on her promises, last time she "flirted" with both SDG and SDA's leader Logi Már Einarsson (they're both affable, folksy Northerners and get on well) but essentially played coy about what she wanted to do and relished in all the media attention it gave her. LG used the fear of a "reactionary" IP/PP/Centre/People's coalition as their argument for entering the grand coalition, but I doubt PP would have been up for a coalition with Centre back then and certainly not now where SDG has become more unhinged and unpredictable. 

I think the easiest government for Sæland to support is a PP led government with SDA and a third party, which can't be Reform (too elitist and liberal) or the Pirates (too weird and "radical"). Since SDA has sworn never to go into coalition with IP that only leaves LG. LG used to consider People's "semi-racist", but there isn't much basis for that now (if there ever was). So that's really the only situation where I could see them going into government, but they've used entire campaign attacking Katrín Jakobsdottir as an untrustworthy hypocrite who has betrayed the poor, and broken her promises, and I'm not sure their base would accept it. In the end it all depends on whether Inga Sæland is content to be a media figure or if she wants actual influence. 

[nelson]

Kjarninn's final weighed polling average incl. the final Gallup and Maskína polls with the share of the polls in parenthesis. Let's see if it ends up being more accurate than the Gallup poll.

It includes the latest poll from the University of Iceland conducted 13-22 Sept­em­ber (12.2%). Pró­sent's poll for free tabloid Frétta­blaðið 17-21 Sept­em­ber (11.6%) and MMR's for the conservative daily Morg­un­blaðið from 20-21 Sept­em­ber (18.3%). Plus Gallup's final poll from 20-24 Sept­em­ber (28.8%) and Mask­ína's poll for the private tv-station Stöðvar 2 and online media Vísir from 22-24 Sept­em­ber (29.1%).

Government: 47.6%
IP 22.2
PP 14.4
LG 11.0

"Liberal" opposition 33.6%
SDA 13.0
Pirates 10.7
Reform 9.9

Populist opposition: 18.2%
Socialists 5.8
People's Party 6.2
Centre Party 6.2

Others: 0.6%

[redvers]

Sept 25, 2021 20:41:13 GMT Andrew_S said:

What time do results start coming through, and is there usually an exit poll?

Sept 25, 2021 10:08:16 GMT nelson said:

The polls are open from 9am to 10pm GMT and the constituency results will be in between 5.30am and 7am GMT tomorrow, probably closer to the latter given the huge number of early votes which take more time to count.

[ibfc]

[nelson]

I'll wait until we get the final numbers to comment in-depth, but PP and People's are the big winners and LG may have lost too much to be able to defend continuing the current government and then there is the issue of who would lead it. LG can't sit in an IP led government, and IP may be reluctant to let PP get the PM as the two parties are direct rivals and Sigurður Ingi Jóhannsson could become a popular PM with a personal vote.  

There is a big protectionist majority and a clear majority for status quo on the Constitution. 

PP/LG/People's and SDA have a majority if PP wants to "go left" in a coalition with only one "liberal" party. SDA would have to sacrifice all European dreams and fishing/agriculture reforms, but could get a public housing system (the main element missing in Iceland having a Nordic model welfare state) and welfare improvements.

In the end it'll be up to the PP leadership to decide what they want (and Sigurður Ingi Jóhannsson and his more right-leaning deputy Lilja Dögg Alfreðsdóttir - who has a strong base within the party - may not agree on that). A centre-right government including liberals (Reform), a coalition with the left or a continuation of the grand coalition if that's a possibility (which will depend on LG). The first option is unlikely imo, there is no reason for PP to give concessions to liberals and lower taxes have not been a priority in their mostly left leaning campaign. Besides IP would demand to lead a centre-right government.

On current numbers no less than 34 of the 63 PMs will be women, which would be the first time the Althing has a female majority. 

[nelson]

Final result for Reykjavík South:

IP 22.8
PP 11.5
LG 14.7

SDA 13.3
Reform 8.6
Pirates 10.9

People's 8.9
Socialists 4.8
Centre

IP's group chairman Birg­ir Ármanns­son who looked likely to lose throughout most of the night is elected due to his party gaining a seat (he had switched from North to South). 

[nelson]

IP on 23.8% in the latest update. Will be interesting to see if they stay above their "worst ever" result from 2009, which was 23.7%. 

[nelson]

Final result for North West:

PP 25.8
IP 22.5
LG 11.5

SDA 6.9
Pirates 6.3
Reform 6.2

People's 8.8
Centre 7.4
Socialists 4.2
Liberal Democracy 0.4

As usual the worst constituency for the "liberal" parties.

[nelson]

LG anti-government defector Andrés Ingi Jónsson elected for the Pirates in Reykjavík North. 

[nelson]

Final result for South, one of the two most rural constituencies (along with the NW) and People's leader Inga Sæland's constituency. A traditional IP stronghold (not much coop tradition down there) and impressive PP got that close to overtaking them, but it's PP leader Sigurður Ingi Jóhannsson's home constituency and he has a personal vote.

IP 24.6
PP 23.9
LG 7.4

SDA 7.6
Reform 6.2
Pirates 5.6

People's 12.9
Centre 7.4
Socialists 3.7

Liberal Democracy 0.7

[nelson]

Final result for the inner city + inner suburbs constituency Reykjavík North:

IP 20.6
LG 15.7
PP 12.1

Pirates 12.6
SDA 12.4
Reform 7.6

People's 7.5
Socialists 5.5
Centre 3.5
Liberal Democracy 0.4
Anti-vaxers 0.4

The only constituency where the anti-vaxer party were on the ballot.