YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,905
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Post by YL on Dec 23, 2022 10:58:01 GMT
I'd quite like to see that broken down into "managerial" and "professional". Take these maps of Bristol (originally posted in the Bristol South thread): OG stuff...   Note how there's a large swathe of the city which is in the top quintile for "professional" much of which is basically a Tory dead zone, but there are areas like Stoke Bishop which show up as high on "managerial" too, and these remain more Tory (at least at local level). And I don't think Bristol is particularly a special case here, even if the politics of some parts of the city are outlying in certain respects. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Dec 23, 2022 11:18:01 GMT
If you go back to the 1970s and before, the Conservative vote in almost every constituency could be predicted with almost perfect accuracy just knowing the percentage of professional and managerial workers and the proportion of owner-occupiers.
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Post by bjornhattan on Dec 23, 2022 11:18:33 GMT
It's definitely true that similar patterns can be seen in other cities. In Newcastle, there is a similar swathe of professional neighbourhoods extending north and east from the city centre to Jesmond, Heaton, and Gosforth. But only the latter has a significant managerial presence (and like your Bristol example, retains more of a Conservative vote locally, though not quite enough to win the ward). In London there is quite a clear distinction between places like Islington and Camden (professional) and Richmond and Kensington (managerial) that shows up in political patterns; Wandsworth is intermediate between these groups both demographically and politically.
I should be able to come up with some figures for constituencies - the online census maps only show occupation data at higher levels of geography but the spreadsheets seem to have it all the way down to output area level.
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Post by John Chanin on Dec 23, 2022 11:39:59 GMT
If you go back to the 1970s and before, the Conservative vote in almost every constituency could be predicted with almost perfect accuracy just knowing the percentage of professional and managerial workers and the proportion of owner-occupiers. There was a high correlation, but it wasn't quite as simple as that. There was a 'local culture' bias, which meant that in the urban north, middling groups (not I agree professional and managerial workers) were more likely to vote Labour, whereas in the south middling groups were more likely to vote Conservative. I'd also prefer to express it as the proportion of council tenants (who were remarkably solid for Labour) rather than the proportion of owner-occupiers, although it largely amounts to the same thing as the proportion of private tenants was very low in the 1970s. What my neighbours and work colleagues do remains a big factor in voting behaviour. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Dec 23, 2022 12:35:41 GMT
The 'managerial' percentage remains one of the most electorally telling statistics the census can give us.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Dec 23, 2022 16:54:07 GMT
It's definitely true that similar patterns can be seen in other cities. In Newcastle, there is a similar swathe of professional neighbourhoods extending north and east from the city centre to Jesmond, Heaton, and Gosforth. But only the latter has a significant managerial presence (and like your Bristol example, retains more of a Conservative vote locally, though not quite enough to win the ward). In London there is quite a clear distinction between places like Islington and Camden (professional) and Richmond and Kensington (managerial) that shows up in political patterns; Wandsworth is intermediate between these groups both demographically and politically. I should be able to come up with some figures for constituencies - the online census maps only show occupation data at higher levels of geography but the spreadsheets seem to have it all the way down to output area level. Any maps you can produce would be great, it is certainly also my impression that the managerial/professional split correlates well with Conservative/Labour support (albeit it may largely just be correlation given this split likely correlates with age, education, housing etc). |
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Dec 23, 2022 17:38:18 GMT
Any maps you can produce would be great, it is certainly also my impression that the managerial/professional split correlates well with Conservative/Labour support (albeit it may largely just be correlation given this split likely correlates with age, education, housing etc). It isn't clear if 'Professional' is a particularly meaningful sociological category or if we just hang onto it out of inertia and habit: are all of those jobs really so closely akin to each other now? A question worth asking. But that is very much not the case with the 'Managerial' bracket which has a very clear relationship with social reality. |
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Post by bjornhattan on Dec 23, 2022 18:03:04 GMT
The 'managerial' percentage remains one of the most electorally telling statistics the census can give us. An even more telling one seems to be the ratio between the number in managerial occupations and the number in professional occupations. There's a correlation of 72% between that and Conservative vote - one of the highest figures I've ever seen (multiple car ownership and owner occupation are both c. 65-70% for reference).
And for comparison, the correlation between managerial occupations and Conservative vote is about 40%.
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
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Post by J.G.Harston on Dec 23, 2022 21:38:39 GMT
Any maps you can produce would be great, it is certainly also my impression that the managerial/professional split correlates well with Conservative/Labour support (albeit it may largely just be correlation given this split likely correlates with age, education, housing etc). It isn't clear if 'Professional' is a particularly meaningful sociological category or if we just hang onto it out of inertia and habit: are all of those jobs really so closely akin to each other now? A question worth asking. But that is very much not the case with the 'Managerial' bracket which has a very clear relationship with social reality. Certainly things like teaching and healthcare is no longer "professional". When my grandparents became teachers in the 1940s, they were top-strata, they'd made it, along with the local doctor, solicitor, bank manager. Teaching and healthcare are very firmly "jobs" nowadays. |
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Post by Robert Waller on Dec 24, 2022 11:05:30 GMT
20 CONSTITUENCIES WITH HIGHEST PROPORTION OF FULL TIME STUDENTS 16+ ........................ % ........ Result 2019 Sheffield Central 38.1 Lab Nottingham South 34.5 Lab Cardiff Central 33.9 Lab Newcastle upon Tyne East 31.4 Lab Liverpool Riverside 30.9 Lab Manchester Central 29.1 Lab Leeds North West 28.6 Lab Oxford East 27.7 Lab Cambridge 27.5 Lab Manchester Gorton 26.3 Lab Glasgow Central 25.2 SNP Glasgow North 25.0 SNP Leeds Central 24.9 Lab Leicester South 24.8 Lab Swansea West 24.7 Lab Bristol West 24.3 Lab Portsmouth South 24.2 Lab Coventry South 24.2 Lab Canterbury 24.0 Lab Birmingham Ladywood 23.3 Lab 20 CONSTITUENCIES WITH HIGHEST PROPORTION OF FULL TIME STUDENTS (16+)
ENGLAND and WALES
2021 CENSUS % ...... Result 2019 1. Nottingham South 34.5 Lab 2. Cardiff Central 33.6 Lab 3. Sheffield Central 32.6 Lab 4. Newcastle upon Tyne East 29.7 Lab 5. Liverpool Riverside 29.3 Lab 6. Oxford East 26.8 Lab 7. Cambridge 27.5 Lab 8. Coventry South 25.2 Lab 9. Bristol West 25.0 Lab 10. Leeds Central 24.8 Lab 11. Manchester Central 23.8 Lab 12. Nottingham East 23.5 Lab 13. Leeds North West 23.0 Lab 14. Bath 22.6 LD 15. Leicester South 24.8 Lab 16. Birmingham Ladywood 22.3 Lab 17. Manchester Gorton 22.1 Lab 18. Exeter 22.0 Lab 19. Birmingham Selly Oak 21.7 Lab 20. City of Durham 21.1 Lab Note that this 2021 table is at present for England and Wales only. I have noted various points made on this thread, but for the sake of continuity and comparison, I myself shall be updating 'Almanac' stats here and on the profiles to be comparable as far as possible with those I have used from the 2011 Census. However, others are very welcome to include other statistics and tables, it all increases the sum of knowledge and (festive and non-festive) fun! Data as before calculated by bjornhattan |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 24, 2022 11:29:57 GMT
Thats a big drop in Sheffield Central while the other top 5 seats are incredibly stable. Further down the list, Leeds NW and Manchster Central see bigger drops too. Is this down to the location of new halls of residence in these cities?
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Post by spinach on Dec 24, 2022 12:28:45 GMT
20 CONSTITUENCIES WITH LOWEST PROPORTION OF WHITE RESIDENTS .............. % ...... 2019 result East Ham 23.1 Lab Ilford South 24.2 Lab Brent North 26.6 Lab Birmingham Ladywood 27.3 Lab Ealing Southall 30.4 Lab Leicester East 31.4 Lab West Ham 34.5 Lab Croydon North 35.2 Lab Birmingham Hall Green 35.5 Lab Birmingham Hodge Hill 35.7 Lab Bradford West 37.1 Lab Brent Central 38.8 Lab Harrow East 39.2 C Birmingham Perry Barr 39.7 Lab Harrow West 40.1 Lab Hayes and Harlington 43.4 Lab Poplar and Limehouse 43.5 Lab Camberwell and Peckham 44.8 Lab Feltham and Heston 44.9 Lab Slough 45.1 Lab %// Winner 2019// Change since 2011 Ilford South 19.8 Lab -4.6 Leicester East 20.3 Lab -11.1 Birmingham Ladywood 23.4 Lab -3.9 East Ham 25.3 Lab +2.2 Ealing Southall 25.8 Lab -4.6 Birmingham Hodge Hill 25.8 Lab -9.9 Brent North 27.4 Lab +0.8 Birmingham Hall Green 27.9 Lab -7.6 Bradford West 29.5 Lab -7.6 Birmingham Perry Barr 31.9 Lab -7.8 Hayes and Harlington 32.0 Lab -11.4 Croydon North 34.1 Lab` -1.1 Harrow West 34.6 Lab -5.5 Slough 35.5 Lab -9.6 West Ham 35.7 Lab +1.2 Brent Central 36.0 Lab -2.8 Feltham and Heston 36.1 Lab -8.8 Harrow East 36.4 C -2.8 Poplar and Limehouse 38.2 Lab -5.3 Bethnal Green and Bow 40.9 Lab -6.0 Thank you for providing all this interesting data. Do you have a list of the constituencies with the highest white and white British portion of residents. Also what constituencies or local authorities have seen the largest decrease or increases in their white and white British populations? |
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Post by Robert Waller on Dec 24, 2022 13:16:56 GMT
Thats a big drop in Sheffield Central while the other top 5 seats are incredibly stable. Further down the list, Leeds NW and Manchster Central see bigger drops too. Is this down to the location of new halls of residence in these cities? Yes, I noticed that ... was wondering also if it might be to do with new non-student developments, I believe that is true of Manchester Central? Also, Nottingham seems to have become 'Student Central'. |
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
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Post by J.G.Harston on Dec 24, 2022 15:50:33 GMT
Thats a big drop in Sheffield Central while the other top 5 seats are incredibly stable. Further down the list, Leeds NW and Manchster Central see bigger drops too. Is this down to the location of new halls of residence in these cities? Sheffield Central could be because the population has increased significantly with huge numbers of Chinese students, but the electorate has remained stable, Chinese citizens not being electors. |
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Post by greatkingrat on Dec 24, 2022 16:01:00 GMT
Thats a big drop in Sheffield Central while the other top 5 seats are incredibly stable. Further down the list, Leeds NW and Manchster Central see bigger drops too. Is this down to the location of new halls of residence in these cities? Sheffield Central could be because the population has increased significantly with huge numbers of Chinese students, but the electorate has remained stable, Chinese citizens not being electors. Whether they are on the electoral roll or not has nothing to do with who is counted in the Census. |
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Post by bjornhattan on Dec 24, 2022 18:09:39 GMT
Sheffield Central could be because the population has increased significantly with huge numbers of Chinese students, but the electorate has remained stable, Chinese citizens not being electors. Whether they are on the electoral roll or not has nothing to do with who is counted in the Census. But if the students all went home for that term, meaning their accommodation was empty? |
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
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Post by J.G.Harston on Dec 24, 2022 21:19:02 GMT
Sheffield Central could be because the population has increased significantly with huge numbers of Chinese students, but the electorate has remained stable, Chinese citizens not being electors. Whether they are on the electoral roll or not has nothing to do with who is counted in the Census. Exactly. The population is the same, but the proportion of the population eligible to be electors drops. Eg: 100,000 population, 71,000 adults, 30,000 students, 1,000 Chinese students, 70,000 electors, students 30% of population 100,000 population, 71,000 adults, 30,000 students ,20,000 Chinese students, 50,000 electors Boundary review to equalise the number of electors 129,000 population, 90,000 adults, 30,000 students ,20,000 Chinese students, 70,000 electors, students 23% of pupulation |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 24, 2022 22:16:23 GMT
Whether they are on the electoral roll or not has nothing to do with who is counted in the Census. Exactly. The population is the same, but the proportion of the population eligible to be electors drops. Eg: 100,000 population, 71,000 adults, 30,000 students, 1,000 Chinese students, 70,000 electors, students 30% of population 100,000 population, 71,000 adults, 30,000 students ,20,000 Chinese students, 50,000 electors Boundary review to equalise the number of electors 129,000 population, 90,000 adults, 30,000 students ,20,000 Chinese students, 70,000 electors, students 23% of pupulation This has nothing to do with the electorate. |
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Post by bjornhattan on Dec 27, 2022 11:10:36 GMT
This may not be the most useful list for long term trends, but does give an interesting snapshot as to our society during the pandemic...
TOP 20 CONSTITUENCIES WITH THE HIGHEST PROPORTION OF WORKERS WORKING FROM HOME | Rank | Constituency | WFH %
| 2019 Result
| 1
| Richmond Park
| 60.1
| LD gain from Con
| 2
| Cities of London and Westminster
| 59.2
| Con hold
| 3
| Battersea
| 59.0
| Lab hold
| 4
| Chelsea and Fulham
| 58.8
| Con hold
| 5
| Hampstead and Kilburn
| 57.6
| Lab hold
| 6
| Islington South and Finsbury
| 56.9
| Lab hold
| 7
| Kensington
| 56.6
| Con gain from Lab
| 8
| Wimbledon
| 56.6
| Con hold
| 9
| Tooting
| 56.3
| Lab hold
| 10
| Twickenham
| 55.6
| LD hold
| 11
| Islington North
| 55.4
| Lab hold
| 12
| Westminster North
| 53.6
| Lab hold
| 13
| Putney
| 53.5
| Lab gain from Con
| 14
| Esher and Walton
| 53.0
| Con hold
| 15
| Holborn and St Pancras
| 52.4
| Lab hold
| 16
| Poplar and Limehouse
| 52.0
| Lab hold
| 17
| Hornsey and Wood Green
| 51.7
| Lab hold
| 18
| Dulwich and West Norwood
| 51.7
| Lab hold
| 19
| Vauxhall
| 51.1
| Lab hold
| 20
| Hitchin and Harpenden
| 51.0
| Con hold
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Post by bjornhattan on Dec 27, 2022 11:15:46 GMT
And in stark contrast to those seats...
TOP 20 CONSTITUENCIES WITH THE LOWEST PROPORTION OF WORKERS WORKING FROM HOME | Rank | Constituency | WFH %
| 2019 Result
| 1
| Great Grimsby
| 11.8
| Con gain from Lab
| 2
| Boston and Skegness
| 12.1
| Con hold
| 3
| Kingston upon Hull East
| 12.3
| Lab hold
| 4
| Scunthorpe
| 13.7
| Con gain from Lab
| 5
| Kingston upon Hull West and Hessle
| 13.8
| Lab hold
| 6
| Blaenau Gwent
| 14.0
| Lab hold
| 7
| Walsall North
| 14.4
| Con hold
| 8
| Kingston upon Hull North
| 15.1
| Lab hold
| 9
| Birmingham Hodge Hill
| 15.1
| Lab hold
| 10
| Stoke on Trent North
| 15.2
| Con gain from Lab
| 11
| Stoke on Trent Central
| 15.3
| Con gain from Lab
| 12
| Wolverhampton North East
| 15.4
| Con gain from Lab
| 13
| Middlesbrough
| 15.4
| Lab hold
| 14
| Wolverhampton South East
| 15.6
| Lab hold
| 15
| Rhondda
| 15.9
| Lab hold
| 16
| Leicester West
| 16.0
| Lab hold
| 17
| Stoke on Trent South
| 16.1
| Con hold
| 18
| Great Yarmouth
| 16.5
| Con hold
| 19
| Burnley
| 16.8
| Con gain from Lab
| 20
| Carlisle
| 16.9
| Con hold
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