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Post by andrew111 on May 19, 2021 7:46:36 GMT
Or, as I saw some people post on Twitter at the time "The seats where turkeys voted for Christmas". Has it ever been completely established that education is a driver of election results (for instance "uneducated seats" will vote in an opposite manner to "educated" seats?) Given that 10 of those seats voted Conservative, 9 Labour and 1 SNP, who are the alleged turkeys according to this 'analysis'? (and given the seats listed range from the very safest Conservative (Castle Point, Clacton, Boston) to the very safest Labour (Rhondda, Knowsley, Walton, Hodge Hill) it is even more unclear what point is being made) I guess the question is whether any of them were Conservative 10 or 20 years ago? There was certainly a correlation between highest educational level and Brexit vote (largely related to joining a cultural group, not intelligence, imo) |
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Post by Merseymike on May 19, 2021 7:55:10 GMT
Given that 10 of those seats voted Conservative, 9 Labour and 1 SNP, who are the alleged turkeys according to this 'analysis'? (and given the seats listed range from the very safest Conservative (Castle Point, Clacton, Boston) to the very safest Labour (Rhondda, Knowsley, Walton, Hodge Hill) it is even more unclear what point is being made) I guess the question is whether any of them were Conservative 10 or 20 years ago? There was certainly a correlation between highest educational level and Brexit vote (largely related to joining a cultural group, not intelligence, imo) Well, some have always been Conservative, such as those mentioned above. There are some seats listed there which only recently went Conservative - the Midlands seats - or which have been represented by both parties like Blackpool S. |
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Post by andrew111 on May 19, 2021 9:24:40 GMT
I guess the question is whether any of them were Conservative 10 or 20 years ago? There was certainly a correlation between highest educational level and Brexit vote (largely related to joining a cultural group, not intelligence, imo) Well, some have always been Conservative, such as those mentioned above. There are some seats listed there which only recently went Conservative - the Midlands seats - or which have been represented by both parties like Blackpool S. Castle Point was Labour in 1997, and now the Tories get 77%. Harwich (predecessor of Clacton) was also more marginal in the past. But it is interesting that Labour in the UK have never been as popular with some parts of the working class as you might expect. Now Labour is becoming increasingly a middle class Party, fishing in the same pool as Lib Dems and Greens in England. With the SNP taking away most of the Scottish seats and the Tories doing better in the North and Midlands it is hard to see Labour getting an absolute majority again. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on May 19, 2021 10:19:40 GMT
Well, some have always been Conservative, such as those mentioned above. There are some seats listed there which only recently went Conservative - the Midlands seats - or which have been represented by both parties like Blackpool S. Castle Point was Labour in 1997, and now the Tories get 77%. Harwich (predecessor of Clacton) was also more marginal in the past. But it is interesting that Labour in the UK have never been as popular with some parts of the working class as you might expect. Now Labour is becoming increasingly a middle class Party, fishing in the same pool as Lib Dems and Greens in England. With the SNP taking away most of the Scottish seats and the Tories doing better in the North and Midlands it is hard to see Labour getting an absolute majority again. Without wanting to litigate this again, it depends on what you mean by "class". If you look at how people vote by *income*, its still much more along "traditional" lines. |
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Post by andrew111 on May 19, 2021 10:23:11 GMT
Castle Point was Labour in 1997, and now the Tories get 77%. Harwich (predecessor of Clacton) was also more marginal in the past. But it is interesting that Labour in the UK have never been as popular with some parts of the working class as you might expect. Now Labour is becoming increasingly a middle class Party, fishing in the same pool as Lib Dems and Greens in England. With the SNP taking away most of the Scottish seats and the Tories doing better in the North and Midlands it is hard to see Labour getting an absolute majority again. Without wanting to litigate this again, it depends on what you mean by "class". If you look at how people vote by *income*, its still much more along "traditional" lines. Are there a lot of high income people in Clacton? Edit: no, Tendring, Castle Point and Boston are all near the bottom of the 2020 median income table |
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Post by Deleted on May 19, 2021 10:24:22 GMT
Well, some have always been Conservative, such as those mentioned above. There are some seats listed there which only recently went Conservative - the Midlands seats - or which have been represented by both parties like Blackpool S. Castle Point was Labour in 1997, and now the Tories get 77%. Harwich (predecessor of Clacton) was also more marginal in the past. But it is interesting that Labour in the UK have never been as popular with some parts of the working class as you might expect. Now Labour is becoming increasingly a middle class Party, fishing in the same pool as Lib Dems and Greens in England. With the SNP taking away most of the Scottish seats and the Tories doing better in the North and Midlands it is hard to see Labour getting an absolute majority again. FFS I thought we'd killed this idea off already |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on May 19, 2021 10:30:12 GMT
Without wanting to litigate this again, it depends on what you mean by "class". If you look at how people vote by *income*, its still much more along "traditional" lines. Are there a lot of high income people in Clacton? Quite a few who are fairly comfortably off, certainly. Its not all like Jaywick you know. (anyway, there are exceptions to every rule - the general point certainly stands; as does the fact the ABC1C2DE definitions of "class" are no longer fit for purpose) |
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Post by andrew111 on May 19, 2021 16:36:53 GMT
Castle Point was Labour in 1997, and now the Tories get 77%. Harwich (predecessor of Clacton) was also more marginal in the past. But it is interesting that Labour in the UK have never been as popular with some parts of the working class as you might expect. Now Labour is becoming increasingly a middle class Party, fishing in the same pool as Lib Dems and Greens in England. With the SNP taking away most of the Scottish seats and the Tories doing better in the North and Midlands it is hard to see Labour getting an absolute majority again. FFS I thought we'd killed this idea off already No problems for Labour Party then |
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Post by elinorhelyn on Jul 12, 2021 7:09:57 GMT
So will the 2021 census constituency stats be based on the old boundaries or will they be updated and modified for the new boundaries.
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Post by bjornhattan on Jul 12, 2021 7:19:44 GMT
So will the 2021 census constituency stats be based on the old boundaries or will they be updated and modified for the new boundaries. When the full census data comes out (at an Output Area level), it will be possible to calculate stats for any boundaries you like - whether that be the old boundaries or the new boundaries. Both will be useful. The 2021 census data should be a much better predictor of 2019 behaviour than the 2011 data (and could be a better predictor for 2017 too). However, the statistics for the new boundaries will be more useful going forwards. |
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Post by John Chanin on Jul 12, 2021 7:50:19 GMT
So will the 2021 census constituency stats be based on the old boundaries or will they be updated and modified for the new boundaries. They will be based on the current constituency boundaries. Reanalysis to new boundaries, assuming they are agreed in 2023, probably won’t be done by ONS, but by enthusiasts recrunching the data for “output areas”, although there will be an element of approximation, as census output areas aren’t defined by political units. |
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Post by rcronald on Jul 12, 2021 8:02:45 GMT
20 CONSTITUENCIES WITH HIGHEST PROPORTION OF ASIAN RESIDENTS ............ % ...... Result 2019 Leicester East 58.1 Lab Ilford South 57.2 Lab Bradford West 54.5 Lab
East Ham 53.8 LabBrent North 52.4 Lab Ealing Southall 50.7 Lab Birmingham Hodge Hill 49.8 Lab Birmingham Hall Green 49.5 Lab Harrow East 45.7 C Harrow West 42.9 Lab Poplar and Limehouse 42.2 Lab Feltham and Heston 40.8 Lab Birmingham Ladywood 40.5 Lab Slough 40.3 Lab Bethnal Green and Bow 40.0 Lab Bradford East 39.3 Lab Birmingham Perry Barr 38.8 Lab Blackburn 37.5 Lab Leicester South 37.4 Lab Hayes and Harlington 36.4 Lab I would have excpected Bradford West to have more Asian residents... (Same with the Newham seats) |
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Post by rcronald on Jul 12, 2021 8:14:51 GMT
Are all Top 20 Catholic seats located in the NW,NI And Scotland?
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Post by Merseymike on Jul 12, 2021 8:37:06 GMT
Are all Top 20 Catholic seats located in the NW,NI And Scotland? The problem is that census data doesn't specify Catholic as a separate identity However I know Sefton Central is high, so is Southport and Bootle for that matter, as is Preston, and the St Helens and Liverpool seats. It's a combination of the Irish immigrants plus the old Lancashire Catholicism. As an aside it's also why the Church of England is "Lancashire low" in churchmanship on the whole. |
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Post by bjornhattan on Jul 12, 2021 8:51:03 GMT
20 CONSTITUENCIES WITH HIGHEST PROPORTION OF ASIAN RESIDENTS ............ % ...... Result 2019 Leicester East 58.1 Lab Ilford South 57.2 Lab Bradford West 54.5 Lab
East Ham 53.8 LabBrent North 52.4 Lab Ealing Southall 50.7 Lab Birmingham Hodge Hill 49.8 Lab Birmingham Hall Green 49.5 Lab Harrow East 45.7 C Harrow West 42.9 Lab Poplar and Limehouse 42.2 Lab Feltham and Heston 40.8 Lab Birmingham Ladywood 40.5 Lab Slough 40.3 Lab Bethnal Green and Bow 40.0 Lab Bradford East 39.3 Lab Birmingham Perry Barr 38.8 Lab Blackburn 37.5 Lab Leicester South 37.4 Lab Hayes and Harlington 36.4 Lab I would have excpected Bradford West to have more Asian residents... (Same with the Newham seats) Wards like Toller and Manningham are much more than 53.4% Asian, but Bradford West incorporates suburban areas further out of the city such as Clayton and Fairweather Green (~25% Asian) and Thornton and Allerton (~15% Asian). It also includes the city centre which is very diverse - unlike most of Bradford there are significant numbers of residents there who are neither White British nor Asian. With Newham, it's more than the area is extremely diverse in general. Parts of the borough such as Custom House still have a lot of white working class residents. Black people are also a large proportion of the population, and many people come under the Other category. While West Ham is the more diverse of the two constituencies (which is why it doesn't even make the list), some of this diversity extends into East Ham as well. |
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Post by rcronald on Jul 12, 2021 9:37:35 GMT
I would have excpected Bradford West to have more Asian residents... (Same with the Newham seats) Wards like Toller and Manningham are much more than 53.4% Asian, but Bradford West incorporates suburban areas further out of the city such as Clayton and Fairweather Green (~25% Asian) and Thornton and Allerton (~15% Asian). It also includes the city centre which is very diverse - unlike most of Bradford there are significant numbers of residents there who are neither White British nor Asian. With Newham, it's more than the area is extremely diverse in general. Parts of the borough such as Custom House still have a lot of white working class residents. Black people are also a large proportion of the population, and many people come under the Other category. While West Ham is the more diverse of the two constituencies (which is why it doesn't even make the list), some of this diversity extends into East Ham as well. The Demographics of the new seats in Newham & Tower Helmets would be v.intersting to look at. |
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Post by peterl on Jul 12, 2021 10:47:34 GMT
Are all Top 20 Catholic seats located in the NW,NI And Scotland? The problem is that census data doesn't specify Catholic as a separate identity However I know Sefton Central is high, so is Southport and Bootle for that matter, as is Preston, and the St Helens and Liverpool seats. It's a combination of the Irish immigrants plus the old Lancashire Catholicism. As an aside it's also why the Church of England is "Lancashire low" in churchmanship on the whole. This is a good case in point for why the Census should have asked about denomination and not only religion. Data like this would be useful. |
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Post by rcronald on Jul 12, 2021 11:10:48 GMT
The problem is that census data doesn't specify Catholic as a separate identity However I know Sefton Central is high, so is Southport and Bootle for that matter, as is Preston, and the St Helens and Liverpool seats. It's a combination of the Irish immigrants plus the old Lancashire Catholicism. As an aside it's also why the Church of England is "Lancashire low" in churchmanship on the whole. This is a good case in point for why the Census should have asked about denomination and not only religion. Data like this would be useful. My guess that it also a partial explenation for the "Merseyside Effect". |
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Post by Merseymike on Jul 12, 2021 11:19:08 GMT
This is a good case in point for why the Census should have asked about denomination and not only religion. Data like this would be useful. My guess that it also a partial explenation for the "Merseyside Effect". Not sure. A constituency like the old Crosby seat was both very Catholic and until Shirley Williams a very safe Tory seat. It wasn't won by Labour until 1997. Labour only won their first Southport seats locally in the past 3 years. However, the old working class Orange vote in Liverpool certainly helped to maintain it as a Tory city, but that was finished off by Thatcherism. |
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Post by Robert Waller on Nov 25, 2022 15:26:56 GMT
2023 BOUNDARY REVIEW – UNCHANGED CONSTITUENCIES
(Also entered on the Boundaries board)
Research by Pete Whitehead
Additional assistance: John Chanin, YL, Islington
After revised recommendations
This list will be adjusted if there are any changes in the final report.
South West
Forest of Dean
North Devon
Greater London
Hayes and Harlington
Islington North
Tooting
Walthamstow
South East
Crawley
Gillingham & Rainham
Gosport
Gravesham
Havant
Hove
New Forest East
New Forest West
Portsmouth North
Portsmouth South
Southampton Itchen
Southampton Test
Worthing East & Shoreham
East
Epping Forest
Great Yarmouth
Ipswich
NE Herts
Stevenage
East Midlands
Chesterfield
Derby North
Derby South
Erewash
High Peak
Lincoln
South Holland & The Deepings
West Midlands
Bromsgrove
Burton
Cannock Chase
Newcastle under Lyme
North Warwickshire
Nuneaton
Sutton Coldfield
Worcester
Worcestershire West
Wyre Forest
North West
Altrincham & Sale West
Cheadle
Hyndburn
Macclesfield
Oldham East & Saddleworth
Oldham West & Royton
St Helens North
Stalybridge & Hyde
Stretford & Urmston
West Lancashire, ,
Wigan
Wythenshawe & Sale East
Yorkshire & Humberside
Bradford West
Penistone & Stocksbridge
Scarborough & Whitby
(there looks to be no meaningful change between Keighley and Shipley but there is a small shange in the boundary)
North East
Hartlepool
Sunderland Central
Wales
Ynys Mon
Scotland
Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock
Central Ayrshire
East Renfrewshire
Edinburgh SW
Kilmarnock & Loudoun
Midlothian
Na h-Eileanan an Iar
North Ayrshire and Arran
Orkney & Shetland
Stirling
Northern Ireland
None
All corrections/additions welcome.
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