Vote UK Almanac - constituency tables

[The Bishop]

The same thread in the boundaries section also has a list of "minimal change" seats.

[LDCaerdydd]

Jan 20, 2021 11:23:54 GMT Harry Hayfield said:

Jan 19, 2021 20:16:17 GMT Robert Waller said:

20 CONSTITUENCIES WITH LOWEST PROPORTION OF VOTERS WITH DEGREES

.................

Or, as I saw some people post on Twitter at the time "The seats where turkeys voted for Christmas". Has it ever been completely established that education is a driver of election results (for instance "uneducated seats" will vote in an opposite manner to "educated" seats?)

Eduction is a driver of many things, wealth and health being two important factors, Hopefully it doesn’t need to be spelt out that wealth often leads to home ownership which in turn often leads to prosperous areas. Poor wealth often leads to poor health and pockets of deprivation.

[Robert Waller]

Jan 19, 2021 20:07:00 GMT Robert Waller said:

20 CONSTITUENCIES WITH LOWEST PROPORTION OF WHITE RESIDENTS

.............. % ...... 2019 result

East Ham 23.1 Lab
Ilford South 24.2 Lab
Brent North 26.6 Lab
Birmingham Ladywood 27.3 Lab
Ealing Southall 30.4 Lab
Leicester East 31.4 Lab
West Ham 34.5 Lab
Croydon North 35.2 Lab
Birmingham Hall Green 35.5 Lab
Birmingham Hodge Hill 35.7 Lab
Bradford West 37.1 Lab
Brent Central 38.8 Lab
Harrow East 39.2 C
Birmingham Perry Barr 39.7 Lab
Harrow West 40.1 Lab
Hayes and Harlington 43.4 Lab
Poplar and Limehouse 43.5 Lab
Camberwell and Peckham 44.8 Lab
Feltham and Heston 44.9 Lab
Slough 45.1 Lab

20 CONSTITUENCIES WITH LOWEST PROPORTION OF WHITE RESIDENTS, 2021 CENSUS

%// Winner 2019// Change since 2011

Ilford South 19.8 Lab -4.6
Leicester East 20.3 Lab -11.1
Birmingham Ladywood 23.4 Lab -3.9
East Ham 25.3 Lab +2.2
Ealing Southall 25.8 Lab -4.6
Birmingham Hodge Hill 25.8 Lab -9.9
Brent North 27.4 Lab +0.8
Birmingham Hall Green 27.9 Lab -7.6
Bradford West 29.5 Lab -7.6
Birmingham Perry Barr 31.9 Lab -7.8
Hayes and Harlington 32.0 Lab -11.4
Croydon North 34.1 Lab` -1.1
Harrow West 34.6 Lab -5.5
Slough 35.5 Lab -9.6
West Ham 35.7 Lab +1.2
Brent Central 36.0 Lab -2.8
Feltham and Heston 36.1 Lab -8.8
Harrow East 36.4 C -2.8
Poplar and Limehouse 38.2 Lab -5.3
Bethnal Green and Bow 40.9 Lab -6.0

[John Chanin]

Well those figures for East Ham and West Ham are interesting. Some gentrification, and a lot of new luxury flats in the Olympic Park and around the docks have reversed the usual trend.

[bjornhattan]

Dec 1, 2022 8:07:06 GMT John Chanin said:

Well those figures for East Ham and West Ham are interesting. Some gentrification, and a lot of new luxury flats in the Olympic Park and around the docks have reversed the usual trend.

The biggest factor (which is also very noticeable in parts of Harrow) is actually immigration from Eastern Europe. In both Newham constituencies less than half of residents who identify as white are classed as "White British".

[Robert Waller]

Jan 19, 2021 20:05:37 GMT Robert Waller said:

20 CONSTITUENCIES WITH HIGHEST PROPORTION OF BLACK RESIDENTS 2011 census

.............. % ....... Result 2019

Camberwell and Peckham 37.4 Lab
Croydon North 31.5 Lab
Lewisham Deptford 28.9 Lab
Edmonton 27.3 Lab
Hackney South and Shoreditch 26.9 Lab
Tottenham 26.7 Lab
Lewisham East 25.8 Lab
Erith and Thamesmead 25.7 Lab
Brent Central 25.5 Lab
Dulwich and West Norwood 25.0 Lab
Vauxhall 24.7 Lab
Streatham 24.3 Lab
West Ham 23.1 Lab
Birmingham Ladywood 22.6 Lab
Lewisham West and Penge 22.4 Lab
Barking 20.2 Lab
Bermondsey and Old Southwark 20.1 Lab
Greenwich and Woolwich 20.1 Lab
Hackney N and Stoke Newington 19.6 Lab
Walthamstow 18.9 Lab

20 CONSTITUENCIES WITH HIGHEST PROPORTION OF BLACK RESIDENTS 2021 census

%// Result 2019// Change 2011-21

Camberwell and Peckham 33.5 Lab -3.9
Croydon North 30.9 Lab -0.6
Erith and Thamesmead 29.0 Lab +3.3
Edmonton 27.6 Lab +0.3
Lewisham Deptford 27.1 Lab -1.8
Lewisham East 26.7 Lab +0.9
Birmingham Ladywood 25.9 Lab +3.3
Hackney South and Shoreditch 24.8 Lab -2.1
Vauxhall 24.1 Lab -0.6
Tottenham 24.0 Lab -2.7
Brent Central 23.7 Lab -1.8
Dulwich and West Norwood 23.3 Lab -1.7
Croydon Central 22.6 Lab +4.7
Streatham 21.1 Lab -3.2
Lewisham West and Penge 21.9 Lab -0.5
Barking 21.2 Lab +1.0
Greenwich and Woolwich 21.1 Lab +1.0
Bermondsey and Old Southwark 20.8 Lab +0.7
West Ham 20.2 Lab -2.9
Enfield North 18.6 Lab +3.1

[John Chanin]

Dec 2, 2022 0:54:15 GMT Robert Waller said:

20 CONSTITUENCIES WITH HIGHEST PROPORTION OF BLACK RESIDENTS 2021 census

%// Result 2019// Change 2011-21

Camberwell and Peckham 33.5 Lab -3.9
Croydon North 30.9 Lab -0.6
Erith and Thamesmead 29.0 Lab +3.3
Edmonton 27.6 Lab +0.3
Lewisham Deptford 27.1 Lab -1.8
Lewisham East 26.7 Lab +0.9
Birmingham Ladywood 25.9 Lab +3.3
Hackney South and Shoreditch 24.8 Lab -2.1
Vauxhall 24.1 Lab -0.6
Tottenham 24.0 Lab -2.7
Brent Central 23.7 Lab -1.8
Dulwich and West Norwood 23.3 Lab -1.7
Croydon Central 22.6 Lab +4.7
Streatham 21.1 Lab -3.2
Lewisham West and Penge 21.9 Lab -0.5
Barking 21.2 Lab +1.0
Greenwich and Woolwich 21.1 Lab +1.0
Bermondsey and Old Southwark 20.8 Lab +0.7
West Ham 20.2 Lab -2.9
Enfield North 18.6 Lab +3.1

A number of interesting points here.  Firstly only Birmingham has anything like the concentration of black people that you find in London.  Secondly unlike the Asian figures, these are not going up.  I think this is a combination of the rise of mixed ethnicity (London is well integrated), low birth rates, and low immigration (there’s not the imported spouses you find in Asian communities).  Thirdly, not immediately apparent here, is that those whose ancestry is directly African now outweigh those identifying as Caribbean almost everywhere in London, even making allowance for the sizeable ‘black British’ group.  Birmingham again is an exception here.

I’d add a point I think was made by Pete Whitehead before.  If you live in Washington or Cannock the number of black people seen on TV etc looks like political correctness, and in no way reflects local demographics.  But in London it’s totally normal, and ‘minority’ groups may well feel under-represented.  And of course London has disproportionate weight in popular discourse and the media. It’s no surprise to people here that London is a different world in so many ways, but it does play into anti-London feelings from other parts of the country, and this does have political ramifications.  

London has always been different, but the variation in the demographics -housing tenure, education, age, income, occupation as well as ethnicity - are now probably larger than they have ever been, and this can’t be good for national integration.

[Robert Waller]

Jan 21, 2021 18:10:20 GMT Robert Waller said:

20 CONSTITUENCIES WITH HIGHEST PROPORTION OF JEWISH RESIDENTS

............................... % ........... Result 2019

1.Finchley & Golders Green 21.1 C
2. Hendon 17.0 C
3. Hertsmere 14.3 C
4, Hackney N & Stoke Newington 11.3 Lab
5. Bury South 10.2 C gain from Lab
6. Harrow East 7.3 C
7. Blackley & Broughton 7.2 Lab
8. Chipping Barnet 6.8 C
9. Hampstead and Kilburn 6.5 Lab
10. Ilford North 6.5 Lab
11. Leeds NE 5.3 Lab
12. Epping Forest 3.8 C
13. Westminster N 3.7 Lab
14. Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner 3.7 C
15. Hornsey & Wood Green 3.4 Lab
16. Enfield Southgate 3.3 Lab
17. Gateshead 3.1 Lab
18. Cities of London and Westminster S 2.6 C
19. Tottenham 2.7 Lab
20. East Renfrewshire 2.6 SNP gain from C

Just found this as well
www.jpr.org.uk/documents/JPR.Where_Jewish_votes_may_matter_most.Guide_to_2015_General_Election.pdf

2021 Census

20 CONSTITUENCIES WITH HIGHEST PROPORTION OF JEWISH RESIDENTS

% Result 2019

1.Finchley & Golders Green 20.8 C
2. Hertsmere 17.0 C
3. Hendon 15.4 C
4. Hackney N & Stoke Newington 12.0 Lab
5. Bury South 10.0 C gain from Lab
6. Blackley & Broughton 8.5 Lab
7. Chipping Barnet 6.8 C
8. Hampstead and Kilburn 6.5 Lab
9. Harrow East 4.5 C
10. Leeds NE 4.1 Lab
11. Epping Forest 3.7 C
12. Ilford North 3.6 Lab
13. Hornsey & Wood Green 3.6 Lab
14. Tottenham 3.6 Lab
15. Westminster N 3.1 Lab
16. Gateshead 3.0 Lab
17. Enfield Southgate 2.6 Lab
18. Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner 2.6 C
19. Holborn & St Pancras 2.6 Lab
20. Cities of London and Westminster S 2.6 C

[Robert Waller]

2011 Census

Jan 19, 2021 20:26:35 GMT Robert Waller said:

20 CONSTITUENCIES WITH HIGHEST PROPORTION OF MUSLIMS

......................... % ............ Result 2019

Birmingham Hodge Hill 52.1 Lab
Bradford West 51.3 Lab
Birmingham Hall Green 46.6 Lab
East Ham 37.4 Lab
Bradford East 36.9 Lab
Blackburn 36.3 Lab
Bethnal Green and Bow 35.4 Lab
Birmingham Ladywood 35.2 Lab
Ilford South 34.9 Lab
Poplar and Limehouse 33.6 Lab
Manchester Gorton 28.8 Lab
Leicester South 27.8 Lab
West Ham 26.8 Lab
Walthamstow 25.4 Lab
Luton South 25.3 Lab
Oldham West and Royton 24.6 Lab
Edmonton 24.5 Lab
Slough 23.8 Lab
Rochdale 23.6 Lab
Birmingham Perry Barr 22.7 Lab

20 CONSTITUENCIES WITH HIGHEST PROPORTION OF MUSLIMS
2021 CENSUS

% Result 2019

1. Birmingham Hodge Hill 62.4 Lab
2. Bradford West 58.7 Lab
3. Birmingham Hall Green 55.9 Lab
4. Blackburn 46.0 Lab
5. Bradford East 43.9 Lab
6. Ilford South 43.7 Lab
7. Birmingham Ladywood 43.1 Lab
8. Bethnal Green and Bow 41.2 Lab
9. East Ham 41.2 Lab
10. Manchester Gorton 39.0 Lab
11. Poplar and Limehouse 38.8 Lab
12. Birmingham Yardley 35.4 Lab
13. Luton North 34.2 Lab
14. Oldham West and Royton 32.1 Lab
15. Leicester South 32.0 Lab
16. Birmingham Perry Barr 31.8 Lab
17. Bolton SE 30.7 Lab
18. Rochdale 30.5 Lab
19. Slough 30.1 Lab
20. Luton South 30.1 Lab

[nodealbrexiteer]

Somewhere they'll be a bleeder who wants to know the top 20 constituencies for people claiming to be Jedi

[bjornhattan]

Dec 21, 2022 21:42:16 GMT nodealbrexiteer said:

Somewhere they'll be a bleeder who wants to know the top 20 constituencies for people claiming to be Jedi

They'll be disappointed - the ONS clearly executed Order 66 because figures haven't been published for that (not even in the "detailed" religion tables)...

[nodealbrexiteer]

Dec 21, 2022 21:45:27 GMT bjornhattan said:

Dec 21, 2022 21:42:16 GMT nodealbrexiteer said:

Somewhere they'll be a bleeder who wants to know the top 20 constituencies for people claiming to be Jedi

They'll be disappointed - the ONS clearly executed Order 66 because figures haven't been published for that (not even in the "detailed" religion tables)...

Good-not everyone at the ONS has had their common sense surgically removed

[finsobruce]

Dec 21, 2022 21:45:27 GMT bjornhattan said:

Dec 21, 2022 21:42:16 GMT nodealbrexiteer said:

Somewhere they'll be a bleeder who wants to know the top 20 constituencies for people claiming to be Jedi

They'll be disappointed - the ONS clearly executed Order 66 because figures haven't been published for that (not even in the "detailed" religion tables)...

So they can't Force them to release the Jedi figures?

[Pete Whitehead]

Birmingham Hodge Hill will drop well down the listings on the new boundaries (though may still be in the top 20). Dewsbury & Batley may be a new entrant

[bjornhattan]

Dec 21, 2022 22:03:28 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Birmingham Hodge Hill will drop well down the listings on the new boundaries (though may still be in the top 20). Dewsbury & Batley may be a new entrant

Correct on both counts. Birmingham Hodge Hill falls to 12th; Dewsbury and Batley enters the top ten and Muslims are the largest single group there.

1. Bradford West 58.7%
2. Birmingham Hall Green 54.4%
3. Birmingham Ladywood 49.0%
4. East Ham 47.1%
5. Blackburn 46.8%
6. Bethnal Green and Stepney 46.6%
7. Birmingham Perry Barr 43.9%
8. Dewsbury and Batley 43.7%
9. Bradford East 43.4%
10. Birmingham Yardley 42.6%
11. Ilford South 41.4%
12. Birmingham Hodge Hill 37.5%
13. Poplar and Limehouse 35.9%
14. Leicester South 34.8%
15. Manchester Rusholme 33.7%
16. Luton North 32.5%
17. Stratford and Bow 32.2%
18. Oldham West and Royton 32.1%
19. Slough 31.1%
20. Ilford North 30.6%

[Robert Waller]

The work for this was done by bjornhattan

20 CONSTITUENCIES WITH HIGHEST PROPORTION OF PROFESSIONAL AND MANAGERIAL WORKERS (ENGLAND and WALES)

2021 CENSUS

% Result 2019


1. Battersea 55.6 Lab
2. Richmond Park 55.2 LD gain from C
3. Wimbledon 54.3 C
4. Tooting 52.6 Lab
5. Twickenham 51.8 LD
6. Chelsea and Fulham 50.8 C
7. Hitchin and Harpenden 50.6 C
8. Esher and Walton 49.9 C
9. Putney 49.9 Lab gain from C
10. Hampstead and Kilburn 49.8 Lab
11. St Albans 49.5 LD gain from C
12. Wokingham 49.1 C
13. Cities of London and Westminster 48.8 C
14. Sheffield Hallam 48.4 Lab
15.North East Hampshire 48.4 C
16. Altrincham and Sale West 48.1 C
17.Maidenhead 47.5 C
18. South Cambridgeshire 47.5 C
19. Chesham and Amersham 47.5 C (gained by LD in byelection)
20. Beckenham 47.3 C

I hope to add the stats for all seats (prof / man and routine / semi-routine) to the profiles in due course

[matureleft]

Dec 22, 2022 21:45:48 GMT Robert Waller said:

The work for this was done by bjornhattan

20 CONSTITUENCIES WITH HIGHEST PROPORTION OF PROFESSIONAL AND MANAGERIAL WORKERS (ENGLAND and WALES)

2021 CENSUS

% Result 2019


1. Battersea 55.6 Lab
2. Richmond Park 55.2 LD gain from C
3. Wimbledon 54.3 C
4. Tooting 52.6 Lab
5. Twickenham 51.8 LD
6. Chelsea and Fulham 50.8 C
7. Hitchin and Harpenden 50.6 C
8. Esher and Walton 49.9 C
9. Putney 49.9 Lab gain from C
10. Hampstead and Kilburn 49.8 Lab
11. St Albans 49.5 LD gain from C
12. Wokingham 49.1 C
13. Cities of London and Westminster 48.8 C
14. Sheffield Hallam 48.4 Lab
15.North East Hampshire 48.4 C
16. Altrincham and Sale West 48.1 C
17.Maidenhead 47.5 C
18. South Cambridgeshire 47.5 C
19. Chesham and Amersham 47.5 C (gained by LD in byelection)
20. Beckenham 47.3 C

I hope to add the stats for all seats (prof / man and routine / semi-routine) to the profiles in due course

Interesting. There are a fair few opposition targets among the remaining Tory seats in this list. How that party's core has changed in my political life. 

[Robert Waller]

20 CONSTITUENCIES WITH HIGHEST PROPORTION OF ROUTINE / SEMI ROUTINE WORKERS (England and Wales)

2021 Census

% ........ Party holding seat

1. Great Grimsby 38.0 C gain from Lab
2.Boston and Skegness 37.3 C
3. Hull East 37.2 Lab
4.Leicester E 37.1 Lab
5. Blaenau Gwent 36.9 Lab
6. Scunthorpe 36.1 C gain from Lab
7. Wolverhampton South East 36.0 Lab
8. Stoke on Trent North 35.8 C gain from Lab
9. Walsall North 35.7 C
10. Nottingham North 35.4 Lab
11. Stoke on Trent South 35.2 C
12 Hull West and Hessle 35.1 Lab
13. West Bromwich West 34.9 C gain from Lab
14. Leicester West 34.7 Lab
15. Ashfield 34.6 C gain from Lab
16. Mansfield 34.5 C
17. Stoke on Trent Central 34.5 C gain from Lab
18. Rhondda 34.5 Lab
19. Normanton, Pontefract & Castleford 34.5 Lab
20. Wolverhampton North East 34.1 C gain from Lab

Thanks again to bjornhattan

[John Chanin]

Dec 22, 2022 21:45:48 GMT Robert Waller said:

The work for this was done by bjornhattan

20 CONSTITUENCIES WITH HIGHEST PROPORTION OF PROFESSIONAL AND MANAGERIAL WORKERS (ENGLAND and WALES)

2021 CENSUS

% Result 2019


1. Battersea 55.6 Lab
2. Richmond Park 55.2 LD gain from C
3. Wimbledon 54.3 C
4. Tooting 52.6 Lab
5. Twickenham 51.8 LD
6. Chelsea and Fulham 50.8 C
7. Hitchin and Harpenden 50.6 C
8. Esher and Walton 49.9 C
9. Putney 49.9 Lab gain from C
10. Hampstead and Kilburn 49.8 Lab
11. St Albans 49.5 LD gain from C
12. Wokingham 49.1 C
13. Cities of London and Westminster 48.8 C
14. Sheffield Hallam 48.4 Lab
15.North East Hampshire 48.4 C
16. Altrincham and Sale West 48.1 C
17.Maidenhead 47.5 C
18. South Cambridgeshire 47.5 C
19. Chesham and Amersham 47.5 C (gained by LD in byelection)
20. Beckenham 47.3 C

I hope to add the stats for all seats (prof / man and routine / semi-routine) to the profiles in due course

I will be updating the demographic data on all the profiles I have written once the full set of indicators I have chosen to use are available.  I think I ought to co-ordinate with you, as I have cut the data differently in some cases to the source you have used.

[No Offence Alan]

Dec 22, 2022 21:45:48 GMT Robert Waller said:

The work for this was done by bjornhattan

20 CONSTITUENCIES WITH HIGHEST PROPORTION OF PROFESSIONAL AND MANAGERIAL WORKERS (ENGLAND and WALES)

2021 CENSUS

% Result 2019


1. Battersea 55.6 Lab
2. Richmond Park 55.2 LD gain from C
3. Wimbledon 54.3 C
4. Tooting 52.6 Lab
5. Twickenham 51.8 LD
6. Chelsea and Fulham 50.8 C
7. Hitchin and Harpenden 50.6 C
8. Esher and Walton 49.9 C
9. Putney 49.9 Lab gain from C
10. Hampstead and Kilburn 49.8 Lab
11. St Albans 49.5 LD gain from C
12. Wokingham 49.1 C
13. Cities of London and Westminster 48.8 C
14. Sheffield Hallam 48.4 Lab
15.North East Hampshire 48.4 C
16. Altrincham and Sale West 48.1 C
17.Maidenhead 47.5 C
18. South Cambridgeshire 47.5 C
19. Chesham and Amersham 47.5 C (gained by LD in byelection)
20. Beckenham 47.3 C

I hope to add the stats for all seats (prof / man and routine / semi-routine) to the profiles in due course

That list is as good a definition of the "Blue Wall" as I have seen.