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Post by emidsanorak on Jan 21, 2021 22:19:09 GMT
Wales ought to be able to be divided into sub-regions: Blenau Gwent, Caerphilly, Newport (4) Bridgend, Cardiff, Merthyr Tydfil, Rhondda Cynon Taff, Vale of Glamorgan (9) Carmarthenshire (2) Ceredigion, Pembrokeshire (2) Conwy, Gwynedd, Powys (4) Denbighshire (1) Flintshire, Wrexham (3) Monmouthshire (1) Neath Port Talbot, Swansea (4) Torfaen (1) The tightest of these is the Mid/South Glamorgan sub-region for 9 seats with an average of 75471 electors. Nobody, so far, has posted a 9 seat Mid/South Glamorgan. So I thought I’d see if it’s possible. This is what I came up with: ibb.co/zJMjf7WBarry (76531) (Vale of Glamorgan) loses Cowbridge, Llandow/Ewenny, Llantwit Major, Peterston-super-Ely, St Athan, St Bride’s Major; gains all Vale of Glamorgan electors lost by Cardiff South East Bridgend (75327) loses Cornelly, Pyle: gains all electors lost by Barry Cardiff Central (76667) (Cardiff West) loses Cregiau/St Fagans, Fairwater, Pentyrch, Radyr: gains Adamstown, Cathays, Plasnewydd Cardiff North (76763) gains Cyncoed Cardiff South East (76183) (Cardiff South & Penarth) loses all Vale of Glamorgan electors; gains Pentwyn, Penylan Merthyr Tydfil & Mountain Ash (70255) (Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney) loses all Caerphilly electors: gains Abercynon, Cilfynydd, Cwmbach, Glyncoch, Mountain Ash x 2, Penhriwceiber, Ynysybwl Ogmore (76102) gains Cornelly, Pyle, Pont-y-clun, Talbot Green Pontypridd & Cardiff West (75178) (Pontypridd) loses Pont-y-clun, Talbot Green; gains Cregiau/St Fagans, Fairwater, Pentyrch, Radyr Rhondda & Aberdare (76235) (Rhondda) gains Aberaman x 2, Aberdare x 2, Hirwaun, Pen-y-waun, Rhigos I’m not happy about the treatment of the Llantrisant area. And it’s awkward fitting three valleys into two seats. But, otherwise, I’m quite pleased with it. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 21, 2021 23:30:10 GMT
It looks like we can agree on North Wales. I agree with the names of the Flintshire seats. Personally, I can't shake from the fact that Denbighshire is good for 1 seat so we shouldn't divide it.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 21, 2021 23:43:28 GMT
It looks like we can agree on North Wales. I agree with the names of the Flintshire seats. Personally, I can't shake from the fact that Denbighshire is good for 1 seat so we shouldn't divide it. I tried that, but it made too much of a mess elsewhere |
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ian48
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Post by ian48 on Jan 22, 2021 10:26:15 GMT
First draft, Wales 
1 Brecon & Newtown 70,914, safe Con 2 Conwy Coast 71,856 comfortably Con 3 Powys North & Meirionydd 71,011 marginal Con 4 Wrexham 74,852 marginal Con 5 Delyn 70,416 marginal Con 6 Alyn & Deeside 70,651 marginal Con 7 Dwyfor Arfon 70,519 safe PC 8 Conwy & Denbigh 71,063 reasonably safe Con 9 Ceredigion & Fishguard 74,412 hyper marginal PC 10 Pembrokeshire 76,471 marginal Con 11 Llanelli 72,367 safe Lab 12 Carmarthen 70,211 marginal Con 13 Swansea Central 72,581 safe Lab 14 Pontypridd & Aberdare 75,091 safe Lab 15 Bridgend 76,182 marginal Con 16 Afan Valley, Neath & Port Talbot 76,004 safe Lab 17 Swansea West & Gower 71,240 marginal Lab 18 Swansea North & Ystalafera 76,373 safe Lab 19 Llantwit & Vale of Glamorgan 75,536 reasonably safe Con 20 Penarth & Barry 70,735 reasonably safe Lab 21 Ogmore & the Rhondda 75,586 safe Lab 22 Cardiff Central 71,333 hyper safe Lab 23 Newport East & Central 76,159 reasonably safe Lab 24 Cardiff, St Fagans 75,082 marginal Lab 25 Merthyr & Rhymney 76,444 safe Lab 26 Caerphilly 75,102 safe Lab 27 Ebbw Vale 72,708 safe Lab 28 Newport West & Cardiff East reasonably safe 76,155 Lab 29 Cardiff, Rumney 69,936 safe Lab 30 Monmouthshire 72,681 safe Con 31 Torfaen 70,591 marginal Lab An interesting map, certainly. Caernarfon would surely be a better name for "Dwyfor Arfon" which covers most of Caernarfon(shire). And "Pembrokeshire" is really South Pembrokeshire even though your proposed seat is almost identical to the 1983-97 Pembroke constituency. Alyn, Deeside and Delyn no longer exist as districts so the names of Delyn and Alyn & Deeside should be retired and replaced with West Flintshire and East Flintshire. The problem with linking (most of) Montgomeryshire with Meirionydd is that it can be seen as gerrymandering against Plaid Cymru (Montgomeryshire has relatively few Welsh speakers, Meirionydd has many), even though there are at least some usable road and railway links between the two (which there are not between Montgomeryshire and Denbighshire). It is for this reason that the BCE never proposed such a Montgomeryshire-Meirionydd pairing in either the 2013 or 2018 reviews. But surely keeping Meirionydd with Dwyfor and adding Caernarfon for example, is just a gerrymander in favour of Plaid Cymru in that case? It would be a case of creating a special constituency to suit a particular section of the population at the expense of creating problems elsewhere. You could also say that keeping Ynys Mon as a standalone is already a special arrangement that benefits Plaid as the alternative (a link with Bangor) would have produced a fairly secure Labour seat. Whereas Plaid could very well win Ynys Mon in future again as a standalone. Personally I don't think it's that important to have majority Welsh speaking constituencies. My own home seat, Aberconwy, is I guess about a third Welsh speaking, but had a very strongly Welsh-speaking MP in Guto Bebb, same as Conwy, which was 40-odd% Welsh speaking, had Sir Wyn Roberts. It's positive if MPs can speak Welsh and are able to speak to their constituents in their native language, but I think it means very little for your average constituent if they live in a Welsh-speaking constituency and boundaries shouldn't be constructed to inflate numbers. Again in the example of Aberconwy, you have wards like Uwchconwy at 70% Welsh speaking in the same constituency as wards like Mostyn at just over 10%. Are we to ensure wards like that are in separate constituencies due to linguistic difference? |
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YL
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Post by YL on Jan 22, 2021 11:56:56 GMT
The problem with linking (most of) Montgomeryshire with Meirionydd is that it can be seen as gerrymandering against Plaid Cymru (Montgomeryshire has relatively few Welsh speakers, Meirionydd has many), even though there are at least some usable road and railway links between the two (which there are not between Montgomeryshire and Denbighshire). It is for this reason that the BCE never proposed such a Montgomeryshire-Meirionydd pairing in either the 2013 or 2018 reviews. The trouble is that not only are the links between Montgomeryshire and Denbighshire poor but the numbers in north east Wales suggest that the current UAs of Denbighshire, Flintshire and Wrexham can get four seats between them, leaving a Powys/Gwynedd link. I don't like it much but I think it's the obvious outcome. I have a full Wales plan worked out which I'll probably post in a couple of days, once I've fine tuned it in a few places. It contains a Meirionnydd/Montgomeryshire link, with a bit of a twist. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 22, 2021 12:01:05 GMT
"Do the Montgomeryshire Twist, it's all the rage in the gleaming hotspots and swinging nightlife of North Wales."
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Post by minionofmidas on Jan 22, 2021 13:52:28 GMT
"Denbighshire" is what was left over after creating UAs from those parts of Clwyd that were better served by UAs, with a traditionalsounding but frankly inappropriate name slapped on. There's a reason the area includes bits and pieces of several constituencies at current. Nor do the three seats for Flint and Wrexham work all that well. (Even the Conwy - Caernarfon border doesn't work perfectly; this is obviously harmless though.)
Both Denbighshire and Montgomery & Meirionydd will probably happen anyways, the law, the numbers and the alternatives being what they are - indeed with the English commission I'd consider it all but certain. The Boundary Commission for Wales has its own way of implementing the law sometimes. But let's not pretend they're good ideas.
But the logic supporting them stands and falls with following their borders exactly. I don't think anybody relevant will or should give the time of day to propsals based on them that add and detract some wards to solve issues elsewhere in N Wales.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jan 22, 2021 14:32:31 GMT
I can see a case for splitting Denbighshire, but Wrexham and all of Denbighshire south of Prestatyn and Rhyl is just slightly too small to form two seats. You can make it work by putting the very south of Flintshire in with Wrexham, but I'm not convinced a constituency stretching from the English Maelor to the outskirts of Rhyl is any better than just giving Denbighshire a seat and putting villages north of Wrexham in with Flintshire.
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Jan 22, 2021 14:48:40 GMT
"Denbighshire" is what was left over after creating UAs from those parts of Clwyd that were better served by UAs, with a traditionalsounding but frankly inappropriate name slapped on. There's a reason the area includes bits and pieces of several constituencies at current. I think this is unfair on Denbighshire. It's really very coherent, stretching up the Vale of Clwyd, with the A525 road from Rhyl to Wrexham forming a spine. The only places that are a bit left over are Corwen and Llangollen, but they'd look even odder in Wrexham or Gwynedd. Most of the population of Denbighshire live in the Vale of Clwyd constituency, and it makes sense to expand this constituency to cover the whole county now that the numbers allow for it. |
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Jan 22, 2021 14:59:37 GMT
I’m not happy about the treatment of the Llantrisant area. Annoyingly swapping Tonyrefail with Talbot Green, Pontyclun, and Llanharry *just* doesn't work by 34 electors – that would have been much more coherent. |
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Post by minionofmidas on Jan 22, 2021 16:23:13 GMT
I can see a case for splitting Denbighshire, but Wrexham and all of Denbighshire south of Prestatyn and Rhyl is just slightly too small to form two seats. You can make it work by putting the very south of Flintshire in with Wrexham, but I'm not convinced a constituency stretching from the English Maelor to the outskirts of Rhyl is any better than just giving Denbighshire a seat and putting villages north of Wrexham in with Flintshire. Yes. Neither do I. |
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Post by greenhert on Jan 22, 2021 19:51:18 GMT
My full plan for Wales (not counting Ynys Mon of course):
1. Caernarfon (70,556). Succeeds Arfon in practice.
2. Maldwyn a Meirionydd (70,201). Succeeds Montgomeryshire in practice; as well as taking in all of Meirionydd it takes in a small part of Denbighshire.
3. Brecon, Radnor & Newtown (70,914). Succeeds Brecon & Radnorshire, taking in southern Montgomeryshire.
4. Llandudno & Colwyn Bay (70,052). Succeeds Clwyd West, covering the central North Wales coast.
5. Denbighshire (74,078). Succeeds Vale of Clwyd and takes in all of Denbighshire UA.
6. West Flintshire (72,962). Succeeds Delyn. Does not take in all of the historic West Flintshire constituency.
7. Wrexham (69,728). Loses area around Gwersyllt, gains southern area currently in Clwyd South around Ruabon.
8. East Flintshire & Gwersyllt (72,791). Succeeds Alyn & Deeside. Loses area around Buckley, gains Gwersyllt area to the north of Wrexham.
9. Ceredigion & North Pembrokeshire (76,269). Succeeds Ceredigion. Almost identical to 1983-97 constituency of Ceredigion & Pembroke North.
10. South Pembrokeshire (74,614). Succeeds Preseli Pembrokeshire in practice. Almost identical to 1983-97 constituency of Pembroke.
11. Carmarthen (70,211). Succeeds Carmarthen East & Dinefwr. Almost identical to pre-1997 Carmarthen constituency.
12. Llanelli (72,367). Takes in area around Ammanford.
13. Swansea West & Gower (74,581). Succeeds Swansea West in practice. Loses Castle and Townhill wards, gains wards in the south of the Gower constituency.
14. Swansea East (74,486). Gains Castle and Townhill wards.
15. Pontardawe Valley (76,438). Succeeds Neath in practice. Loses town of Neath, gains northern wards of the current Gower constituency plus the wards of Cymner, Glyncorrwg and Gwynfi that are currently in the Aberavon constituency.
16. Neath, Port Talbot & Maesteg (76,785). Succeeds Aberavon. Loses Cymner, Glyncorrwg and Gwynfi wards, gains town of Neath in Neath Port Talbot and town of Maesteg in Bridgend.
17. Bridgend (73,316). Loses Porthcawl, gains area around Ogmore.
18. Barry & Porthcawl (75,872). Succeeds Vale of Glamorgan. Gains Porthcawl in Bridgend, loses wards of Cadoc, Court, Dinas Powys, and Gibbonsdown in Vale of Glamorgan.
19.Cardiff South & Penarth (75,987). Loses Llanrumney, Rumney, Splott, and Trowbridge wards in Cardiff, and gains the Cardiff ward of Canton and the Vale of Glamorgan wards of Cadoc, Court, Dinas Powys, and Gibbonsdown.
20. Cardiff West (75,439). Loses Canton ward, gains Llandaff North and Whitchurch & Tonyglais wards.
21. Cardiff North (70,462). Loses Gabalfa, Llandaff North and Whitchurch & Tonyglais wards, and gains the wards of Cyncoed, Llanrumney and Pentwyn.
22. Cardiff East (73,549). Succeeds Cardiff Central in practice. Loses Cyncoed and Pentwyn wards and gains the wards of Gabalfa, Rumney, Splott, and Trowbridge.
23. Pontypridd (73,002). Gains all wards of Ogmore constituency that are in Rhondda Cynon Taf.
24. Rhondda & Aberdare (76,235). Succeeds Rhondda. Gains Aberdare area of Cynon Valley.
25. Merthyr Tydfil & Mountain Ash (70,255). Succeeds Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney. Loses all Caerphilly wards and gains the Mountain Ash area of Cynon Valley.
26. Torfaen (70,591). Now coterminous with Torfaen UA.
27. Monmouthshire (72,681). Now coterminous with Monmouthshire UA.
28. Newport East (70,503). Loses all wards in Monmouthshire and gains the Newport wards of Caerleon, Malpas, Pillgwenlly, Shaftesbury, and Stow Hill.
29. Newport West & Caerphilly (75,387). Succeeds Newport West. Loses Newport wards of Caerleon, Malpas, Pillgwenlly, Shaftesbury, and Stow Hill, and gains the Caerphilly wards of Aber Valley, Morgan Jones, Llanbradach, Penrhyeol, St James, and St Martins.
30. Blaenau GWent & Rhymney (73,114). Succeeds Blaenau Gwent. Gains the Caerphilly wards of Aberbargoed, Argoed, Bargoed, Darren Valley, Gilfach, Moriah, New Tredegar, Pontlottyn, and Twyn Carno.
31. Blackwood Valley (76,926). Succeeds Islwyn. Loses the wards of Aberbargoed and Argoed and gains the wards of Bedwas, Trethomas & Machen, Hengoed, Nelson, St Cattwg, and Ystrad Mynach.
The eight disappearing seats in this plan are: Aberconwy, Caerphilly, Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire, Clwyd South, Cynon Valley, Dwyfor Meirionydd, Gower, and Ogmore.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jan 22, 2021 21:42:08 GMT
Here's my plan for Wales:   Deeside & Flint 72084 - the least change option would be to drop Connah's Quah and Shotton and add the north of Wrexham borough, but this is neater Alyn Valley 71026 - successor to Delyn, but less than a third of the electorate comes from there and slightly more come from Alyn & Deeside Wrexham 72371 - slight more of the current Wrexham than Clwyd South in this seat Denbighshire 74078 - Valley of Clwyd would also be an acceptable name Colwyn Bay 76847 - or another name of your choice Sir Gaernarfon 76401 - if you want to keep Porthmadog in this seat, then it's hard to find alternative arrangements of wards with Colwyn Bay that are within quota Montgomery & Meirionydd 73621 - it's not lovely, but unless Wales annexes Oswestry then I don't see a better alternative Brecon, Radnor & Upper Tawe 72113 - an ugly name, but I think you want to acknowledge all three elements Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North 76269 - adjust exact arrangement of wards according to taste Pembrokeshire 74614 Carmarthen 69876 Llanelli 72702 - adjust exact boundary depending on how close you're willing to have the boundaries come to Ammanford/Burry Port Gower & Swansea North 76397 - the alternative is to have one seat based on the Gower Peninsula and SW Swansea, and another on Loughor etc. and NW Swansea, but this shifts fewer electors. Either way, Tory hopes of winning a seat in the area suffer Swansea West 75016 - gains the Mumbles and Cwmbwrla Neath & Swansea East 75641 - the worst boundary here is the one that follows an existing constituency boundary Port Talbot & Ogmore 74122 - I don't love the internal connectivity here, but a Port Talbot-Porthcawl seat moves a lot more electors Bridgend 77058 Vale of Glamorgan 70426 - just loses Dinas Powys Cardiff South & Penarth 70627 - Canton isn't a great fit here, but the numbers in Cardiff are extremely tight so options were limited Cardiff West 70025 - again, a sensible map would swap Llandaff North and Radyr, but the numbers don't quite work for that Cardiff East 72463 - optional modification: Pontprennau/Old St. Mellons for Cyncoed. On the one hand, it's neater. On the other, additional change and Cyncoed and Pentwyn ought to stay together Cardiff North 70646 - I cheated and borrowed Taff Wells from Pontypridd Pontypridd 70147 - this is nice and neat Rhondda and Mountain Ash 71685 - this needs an explanation, I know, but I do think it beats the alternatives. There's a recognised road between the two half of the seat via Llanwonno, whereas there isn't a recognised road between Tonyrefail and Llanharan; if you put Aberdare in with Rhondda then you have to split Cwmbach from Aberaman; and I reckon Merthyr has better links to Aberdare than the Rhondda does to Aberdare. YMMV Merthyr & Aberdare 74805 Islwyn 75714 - you can either combine Caerphilly with Blackwood and put the rest of Islwyn in with western Newport, or you can do this. I prefer this option Valleys of Ebbw & Rhymney 71074 - sure, I could give this a sensible name, but I felt like some Sirhowy erasure Torfaen 70591 Caerphill & Newport West 72978 - other splits of Newport are available and I don't have the knowledge to say which is better, but this looks alright on a map Newport East 76159 Monmouthshire 72681 |
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Jan 23, 2021 3:54:45 GMT
2. Faldwyn a Meirionydd (70,201) The first part of that seat's name should read either 'Sir Faldwyn' (the county) or 'Maldwyn' (the town). |
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YL
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Post by YL on Jan 23, 2021 7:33:48 GMT
2. Faldwyn a Meirionydd (70,201) The first part of that seat's name should read either 'Sir Faldwyn' (the county) or 'Maldwyn' (the town). I’d got the impression that “Maldwyn” was used for the county (it’s certainly what the Montgomeryshire Wildlife Trust use) and “Trefaldwyn” for the town. |
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Post by Foggy on Jan 23, 2021 8:05:05 GMT
The first part of that seat's name should read either 'Sir Faldwyn' (the county) or 'Maldwyn' (the town). I’d got the impression that “Maldwyn” was used for the county (it’s certainly what the Montgomeryshire Wildlife Trust use) and “Trefaldwyn” for the town. Ooh, good point. I've definitely seen 'Trefaldwyn' for the town as well. A very slight amendment to my own plan for Wales (which avoids a coast-to-Marches seat) could therefore be in order... |
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YL
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Post by YL on Jan 24, 2021 16:53:38 GMT
OK, here goes. I based this on the same grouping of subregions described by emidsanorak. Three maps, descriptons below.    Dyfed1. Ceredigion a Phreseli (74,412). Extends to take in most of northern Pembrokeshire. 2. Pembroke (76,471). The rest of Pembrokeshire. 3. Caerfyrddin (72,683). Carmarthenshire gets two seats. 4. Llanelli (69,895). I just expanded this a little northwards rather than towards Ammanford. Gwent5. Monmouth (72,681). The council area. 6. Torfaen (70,591). Also the council area. 7. Newport East (74,689). Loses Monmouthshire wards, extends further west in Newport. 8. Newport West & Caerphilly (75,864). 9. Blaenau Gwent (75,553). Extends further south. 10. Rhymney & Risca (69,824). I think there needs to be a seat in this area which jumps from one valley to another. Gwynedd, Conwy and PowysNumbers are tight, but it's possible to allocate four seats here without crossing Powys's southern border. 11. Conwy (70,229). A tightly drawn seat along the urbanised coastline. 12. Caernarfon (70,850). One advantage of the coming monstrosity is that it allows this fairly neat arrangement. 13. Canol Picfforch (69,834). Yes, this contains Meirionnydd, most of Montgomeryshire and the Conwy valley. 14. Brecon, Radnor & Montgomery (70,810). The rest of Powys. The north-east15. Denbigh (74,078). The council area. 16. North Flintshire (72,032). 17. South Flintshire & Maelor (70,578). I couldn't find boundaries I really liked around Wrexham. 18. Wrexham (72,871). Takes on Ruabon, Rhosllanerchrugog etc. Mid and South Glamorgan19. Pontypridd & Radyr (75,216). Takes on some north-western wards of Cardiff, loses Pont-y-Clun and Tonyrefail. 20. Cardiff East (75,461). The arrangement in Cardiff is based on getting largish seats to make the rest of the area work. 21. Cardiff North (76,384). Shifts east a bit. 22. Cardiff South West (74,482). West without the northern bits, plus one ward from South. 23. Barry (76,531). The eastern Vale of Glamorgan. 24. Bridgend (75,327). Loses Pyle, gains the western Vale. 25. Ogmore (74,137). Gains Pyle and Pont-y-Clun. 26. Merthyr Tydfil & Aberdare (74,805). Merthyr and the upper Cynon. 27. Rhondda & Mountain Ash (76,898). Not the best internal connectivity. West Glamorgan28. Neath & Port Talbot (72,135). 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ isn't going to like this, but with this quota and these local government boundaries it seems the obvious arrangement. 29. Pontardawe & Gowerton (70,155). The West Glamorgan leftovers seat. 30. Swansea East (72,693). Gains Clydach and Coed-ffranc. 31. Swansea West & Gower Peninsula (72,093). |
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Post by YL on Jan 24, 2021 17:05:16 GMT
Here's an alternative for North Wales and Powys which instead groups Powys and Wrexham on the one hand and Flintshire, Denbighshire, Conwy and Gwynedd on the other, thus avoiding a seat stretching from the English border to the west coast. Perhaps minionofmidas will prefer this version?  11. Colwyn Bay & Rhyl (72,268). This time the seat based on the coastal resorts is a little further east, crossing into the Denbighshire UA. Llansannan might be better in the following seat. 12. Bangor a Chonwy (70,643). Conwy, Llandudno and rural Conwy together with the Bangor area. 13. Caernarfon a Meirionnydd (69,803). 14. Brecon, Radnor & Newtown (72,566). In this version I oriented the Montgomeryshire part of this more to the south than east. 15. Denbigh & Flint (70,768). Northern Flintshire and the Denbigh area of its UA. 16. Alyn & Deeside (70,652). An expansion of the existing seat. 17. Wrexham (72,977). This does seem to give a neater arrangement for Wrexham, but... 18. Berwyn (71,605). This version's monstrosity: most of Montgomeryshire, Denbighshire as far north as Ruthin, and the Ruabon area. |
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Post by Penddu on Jan 25, 2021 2:02:11 GMT
Here's an alternative for North Wales and Powys which instead groups Powys and Wrexham on the one hand and Flintshire, Denbighshire, Conwy and Gwynedd on the other, thus avoiding a seat stretching from the English border to the west coast. Perhaps minionofmidas will prefer this version? 11. Colwyn Bay & Rhyl (72,268). This time the seat based on the coastal resorts is a little further east, crossing into the Denbighshire UA. Llansannan might be better in the following seat. 12. Bangor a Chonwy (70,643). Conwy, Llandudno and rural Conwy together with the Bangor area. 13. Caernarfon a Meirionnydd (69,803). 14. Brecon, Radnor & Newtown (72,566). In this version I oriented the Montgomeryshire part of this more to the south than east. 15. Denbigh & Flint (70,768). Northern Flintshire and the Denbigh area of its UA. 16. Alyn & Deeside (70,652). An expansion of the existing seat. 17. Wrexham (72,977). This does seem to give a neater arrangement for Wrexham, but... 18. Berwyn (71,605). This version's monstrosity: most of Montgomeryshire, Denbighshire as far north as Ruthin, and the Ruabon area. This is pretty much what I came up with - not ideal but it is never going to be with these rules. There is a clear advantage to giving Monmouthshire and Torfaen seats which match the local council, but it doesnt work for Denbighshire because of the knockon effects elsewhere. I did have the 'Berwyn' seat pushing more into Denbighshire and less into northern Powys, with southern Powys compensating by losing the Ystalyfera area. I need to publish this. |
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Post by Foggy on Jan 25, 2021 7:32:59 GMT
My ideas for North and Mid Wales are similar to what YL posted above, with no thin 'geriatric riviera' seat either:  Meirionydd a Chaernarfon/Merioneth & Carnarvon (69,800) Dips into Cardiganshire and borrows two Powys wards, which will probably meet with some consternation. But needs must as it limps into quota, and at least it doesn't come close to touching Gobowen. Llandudno (71,708) Paradise-on-Menai looks east and south-east back along the A55, A5 and North Wales Coast Line, instead of on the bus route westward. This constituency reflects that. Denbigh/Dinbych (70,400) Not quite the 'all of Denbigshire in one seat' solution, because of the knock-on effects it'd have elsewhere, but a rather neat arrangement all the same. Prestatyn (69,778) Also contains Rhyl, but you'd hardly want to shout about that in the name. Stretches all the way down to the border with Powys. Flint/Y Fflint (74,949) Named after the county town, but not after the county in recognition that it doesn't match up with either its current or historic boundaries. Wrexham/Wrecsam (76,138) Radically shifts north, but still contains all of the town of Wrexham proper. Montgomery/Trefaldwyn (73,608) Northeastern Powys with southern Wrexham County Borough, in terms of local authorities. Brecon/Aberhonddu (70,914) Yes, not 'Brycheiniog'. Most of Powys, basically, but no wards from anywhere else, helpfully. Bae Ceredigion/Cardigan Bay (74,299) Most of Cardiganshire plus the northern part of Pembrokeshire, similar to a previous arrangement. The changes are by necessity so substantial in Wales that I am not even going to try to compare these seats to existing ones. If I had to pinpoint which constituencies are effectively disappearing in this region I'd say Arfon, Clwyd South, Delyn and (off the bottom left of the map) Preseli Pembrokeshire. |
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