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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jan 8, 2021 17:23:46 GMT
Powys Fadog was not tremendously dissimilar in boundaries from the modern district of Wrexham.
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Jan 8, 2021 18:36:08 GMT
Powys Fadog was not tremendously dissimilar in boundaries from the modern district of Wrexham. Indeed (although it also included Yale). And who was Madog? Madog ap Maredudd was a mid-12th century leader who, as well as being King of Powys had also managed to get his hands on the Marcher Lordships of Oswestry and Whittington, seemingly as a result of his suppport of Ranulf (4th) Earl of Chester in the Battle of Lincoln. What seems to have happened is that he was also rewarded by the Earl of Chester with the Cantref of Maelor (the Duddestan Hundred of Cheshire in the Domesday Book), along with the Commotes of Yale, Nanheudwy, and Cynllaith (the latter two a century later being reinvented as the Lordship of Chirkland). Powys Fadog was not so much an historic territory of Powys, but a bargain struck for a land contiguous with Oswestry during the Anarchy. That it was later administered separately was almost inevitable, as it really was a Marcher Lordship in dark glasses. |
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Post by iainbhx on Jan 8, 2021 18:40:56 GMT
‘Blaydon and Raoul Moat South’ has a nice ring to it... Bingley and Ripper Street Muswell Hill Nilsen Crawley Acid Bath. Gloucester Fred West. |
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Post by Merseymike on Jan 8, 2021 18:45:49 GMT
Bingley and Ripper Street Muswell Hill Nilsen Crawley Acid Bath. Gloucester Fred West. Oh, well, if we are going real sicko.. Bootle Bulger Oldham East and Saddleworth Hindley |
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
Posts: 3,589 
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Post by cibwr on Jan 9, 2021 19:02:16 GMT
I have spotted a small problem with Wales, namely there are wards are being mis numbered, for instance Broughton North East from Flintshire (currently in Alyn and Deeside) is listed as W05001004, however on Boundary Assistant (for which I believe kevinlarkin deserves at least an OBE for and would be happy to give him a donate for, if he tells me how) it is listed as W05000184. Therefore could I ask what is going on in that regard? For Wales Boundary Assistant is currently based on 2015 wards and electorates. It looks like there have been minor boundary changes in 2017 affecting 47 wards in 7 unitary counties. I will include these changes when I add the March 2020 data to the site. Interestingly at one time Denbighshire and Montgomeryshire had a combined police force... so there is quite a lot of not too distant linkage between those areas..... |
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Jan 9, 2021 20:04:51 GMT
For Wales Boundary Assistant is currently based on 2015 wards and electorates. It looks like there have been minor boundary changes in 2017 affecting 47 wards in 7 unitary counties. I will include these changes when I add the March 2020 data to the site. Interestingly at one time Denbighshire and Montgomeryshire had a combined police force... so there is quite a lot of not too distant linkage between those areas..... When? As far as I'm aware, the Montgomeryshire Constabulary existed until 1948, until it was merged under section 4 of the Police Act 1946 with Radnorshire and Brecknockshire to form the Mid-Wales Constabulary; in 1968 the Mid-Wales Constabulary was itself amalgamated with Carmarthenshire and Cardiganshire Constabulary and with Pembrokeshire Constabulary to form Dyfed-Powys Police. As for Denbighshire, it had its own force until it and Flintshire were merged into Gwynedd Constabulary (later rebranded as North Wales Police) in 1967. |
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Post by hugh01 on Jan 13, 2021 18:39:39 GMT
 1 Wrexham Wrecsam 72058 Yes 2 Wrexham South and Buckley De Wrecsam a Bwcle 69759 Yes 3 Flintshire North Gogledd y Fflint 73664 Yes 4 Denbighshire Sir Ddinbych74078 Yes 5 Conwy Coast Arfordir Conwy75303 Yes 6 Caernarfonshire Sir Gaernarfon74299 Yes This is quite a good plan in NW Wales (I note that further down you have revised NE Wales and I think what you have done is far better than here). The only change to NW Wales I might make is to put Llansannan in with Denbighshire or Conwy and Uwchaled in with Caernarfon (the latter is on the A5 which runs down to Bangor so at least there is a road connection). I wouldn't call the seat Caernarfonshire, as the 7 wards west of the River Conwy were never in Caerns and that old county's most populous conurbation (Llandudno & Conwy) are not in the seat anyway. I guess Gwynedd could be a contender, but the county named Gwynedd has very different boundaries (though actually it was always a bit contentious that Gwynedd was called Gwynedd in 1974 as large parts of Clwyd, including practically the whole of old Denbighshire and Flintshire were in the old mediaeval kingdom of Gwynedd, which was pretty much co-terminious with what we think of as North Wales) Both Llansannan and Uwchaled are a good fit with Denbighshire. Llansannan is seen as a natural hinterland to Denbigh itself, it shares the LL16 post code, parts of the ward are less than 3 miles from Denbigh itself. People in Llansannan, Llannefydd and the Denbigh Moors go to Denbigh to shop use the library, schools etc. The same can be said for Uwchaled being a hinterland of Ruthin and Corwen, Cerrigydrudion used to have a HSBC branch until a few years ago that was a sub branch of Ruthin. Really on local gov reorganisation in the 1990s both wards should have followed Trefnant from Colwyn into Denbighshire, they have very little in common with Conwy with no affinity with the nearest population centres of Abergele or Llanrwst. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 13, 2021 22:07:58 GMT
Don't @ me - the names are not the issue   1 Caernarvon 74994 Yes 2 Conway & Colwyn Bay 74719 Yes 3 Denbigh 70325 Yes 4 Flintshire West 74725 Yes 5 Flintshire East 75857 Yes 6 Wrexham 74013 Yes 7 Mongomery & Merioneth 71795 Yes 8 Cardigan & Pembrokeshire North 74412 Yes 9 Pembrokeshire South 76471 Yes 10 Carmarthen 70211 Yes 11 Llanelli 72367 Yes 12 Brecon, Radnor & Abergavenny 73828 Yes 13 Monmouth 73700 Yes 14 Pontypool 70591 Yes 15 Newport 73126 Yes 16 Abertillery 70517 Yes 17 Caerphilly 71239 Yes 18 Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney 70839 Yes 19 Islwyn 72812 Yes 20 Aberdare & Pontypridd 76408 Yes 21 Cardiff North 76384 Yes 22 Cardiff West 74482 Yes 23 Cardiff East 75461 Yes 24 Barry 70735 Yes 25 Bridgend 72530 Yes 26 Ogmore 76669 Yes 27 Rhondda 73976 Yes 28 Neath & Port Talbot 70013 Yes 29 Lliw Valley 71937 Yes 30 Swansea East 74486 Yes 31 Swansea West 70640 Yes |
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Jan 13, 2021 23:24:28 GMT
Ouch. Those Neath and Bridgend boundaries would start a good pitchfork contest, but that Caerphilly is just special.
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Post by mattb on Jan 14, 2021 7:51:23 GMT
This was my attempt at the B&R-Abergavenny link:   |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 14, 2021 8:24:16 GMT
Ouch. Those Neath and Bridgend boundaries would start a good pitchfork contest, but that Caerphilly is just special. Would it help if I renamed Lliw Valley as Pontardawe & 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ ? I don't know that area on the ground at all. I guess you could move those wards to the north of Bridgend town into that seat and put Porthcawl into Ogmore but I didn't fancy that for various reasons. My Caerphilly seat is sub-optimal but it seemed to me sensible to reduce Cardiff to three core seats and most of the Cardiff wards included there are semi-rural. I can see others have proposed four Cardiff seats but they seem to be spreading out ever further Belfast style |
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ian48
Non-Aligned
Posts: 58
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Post by ian48 on Jan 14, 2021 10:18:40 GMT
Don't @ me - the names are not the issue 1 Caernarvon 74994 Yes 2 Conway & Colwyn Bay 74719 Yes 3 Denbigh 70325 Yes 4 Flintshire West 74725 Yes 5 Flintshire East 75857 Yes 6 Wrexham 74013 Yes 7 Mongomery & Merioneth 71795 Yes 8 Cardigan & Pembrokeshire North 74412 Yes 9 Pembrokeshire South 76471 Yes 10 Carmarthen 70211 Yes 11 Llanelli 72367 Yes 12 Brecon, Radnor & Abergavenny 73828 Yes 13 Monmouth 73700 Yes 14 Pontypool 70591 Yes 15 Newport 73126 Yes 16 Abertillery 70517 Yes 17 Caerphilly 71239 Yes 18 Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney 70839 Yes 19 Islwyn 72812 Yes 20 Aberdare & Pontypridd 76408 Yes 21 Cardiff North 76384 Yes 22 Cardiff West 74482 Yes 23 Cardiff East 75461 Yes 24 Barry 70735 Yes 25 Bridgend 72530 Yes 26 Ogmore 76669 Yes 27 Rhondda 73976 Yes 28 Neath & Port Talbot 70013 Yes 29 Lliw Valley 71937 Yes 30 Swansea East 74486 Yes 31 Swansea West 70640 Yes Speaking from a North Wales perspective, I think your seats are very good. I would make a few tweaks here and there if they work number-wise. My preference would be to keep Llansanffraid and Caerhun wards in the Conwy and Colwyn Bay seat (though the names grates on me being from Llandudno, which will technically be the largest community - and arguably best known town nationally - in the seat given Colwyn Bay is split into several community council areas and Conwy is quite a lot smaller than Llandudno, but that's my own problem, the Boundary Commission liked Conwy and Colwyn last time). I would lose the Llanfairfechan wards of Pandy and Bryn as they look more to Bangor. A local there summed it up to me once well that when someone from Llanfairfechan says they are going to 'town' everyone knows that means Bangor. In Penmaenmawr over the hill, everyone knows they automatically mean Llandudno. Caerhun and Llansanffraid are basically suburbs of Conwy/Llandudno/Colwyn Bay, so fit better there than in the Caernarvon seat. I would rename the latter Eryri by the way as it's the welsh name for Snowdonia. It's short and represents the area far better as large parts of the proposed seat east of the River Conwy were never in Caernarfonshire at all. I like how you have basically reinvented Clwyd South West. That would be an interesting seat to gauge how politics has changed in North wales over the years. It went Tory in '83 due to a split vote with a large SDP vote (Tom Ellis ex-MP for Wrexham), but then went Labour in '87 and stayed that way. I think it would surely have been Conservative had it existed in 2019 and would probably be quite a bit more Tory in general these days than it was in the 80s. Your Flint East seat would be very good for Labour, but from their perspective would lump in a lot of their best areas in One seat, meaning that the Flint West seat might be more Tory than Delyn is at the moment. Though you gain Rhyl, so that would compensate a lot but also the areas around Prestatyn and St Asaph, which are pretty Tory I think. Wrexham may well be better for the Tories as those areas it gains from Alyn and Deeside are less industrial than the other parts of that seat and the Maelor is very Tory. The Montgomery/Meirionydd seat would be interesting, Plaid would go crazy, it would be funny to see Bala represented by Conservative, which I guess would be the case as Montgomery is quite heavily Tory these days and the Meirionydd part of the current Dwyfor Meirionydd seat probably contains the bulk of the Tory vote within that seat, which seems to be a solid 25-30%. Conversely the Plaid vote in Montgomery when they last stood in 2017 was 5%, so the overall strength across the area of the Tories compared to Plaid should mean they would win pretty comfortably I think. I guess the notional results would be 5 Tory, 1 Lab, 1 Plaid. Tory lose out compared to 2019 but that's because they did so well at the last election in North Wales. |
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Jan 14, 2021 11:53:03 GMT
Ouch. Those Neath and Bridgend boundaries would start a good pitchfork contest, but that Caerphilly is just special. Would it help if I renamed Lliw Valley as Pontardawe & 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ ? I don't know that area on the ground at all. I guess you could move those wards to the north of Bridgend town into that seat and put Porthcawl into Ogmore but I didn't fancy that for various reasons. My Caerphilly seat is sub-optimal but it seemed to me sensible to reduce Cardiff to three core seats and most of the Cardiff wards included there are semi-rural. I can see others have proposed four Cardiff seats but they seem to be spreading out ever further Belfast style The thing that's awkward with that area is that Neath town centre is at the western end of Neath North ward (another of those bad ward names). So Bryncoch South ward in particular looks to normal people like part of Neath town – and really it's pretty nasty removing any of Blaenhonddan and Dyffryn communities. I hadn't actually thought this was serious – putting Ystradgynlais, Brecknockshire's second largest town, into a constituency with parts of Gwent is a bit odd (although not impossibly so, if there were some good reason to do this), even before one gets knock-on awkwardness across South Wales. At least you managed to avoid the other version of this idea so far's moving Porth out of the Rhondda and separating the Talbot Green ward of Llantrisant town from the old town. As for Cardiff, its rural wards are quickly getting built up (you may have seen some news coverage a few years back about the Earl of Plymouth evicting his tenant farmers so that Redrow could cover the area with overpriced little box houses). Yes, there's the issue that the Cardiff Central and West constituencies are undersized this time, but it's not a Belfast-like trajectory. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 14, 2021 12:21:51 GMT
I haven't done anything with Ystradgynlais
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Jan 14, 2021 12:58:29 GMT
I haven't done anything with Ystradgynlais I simply mean that the two largest elements by far in Brecknockshire's population – Brecon and Ystradgynlais (each of these has a population of over 8000; the next largest, Builth Wells, is about 2500) – are in the west of the county, and the latter in particular connects much better to West Glamorgan than to Gwent. Added to this, the internal structure of West Glamorgan is awkward – yes, you can get 4 constituencies out of it, but they'll generally be much happier if Port Talbot can go into Mid Glamorgan and the rest can have a cross-boundary with either Brecknockshire (which is helpful) or Carmarthenshire (which isn't). Once Port Talbot goes into Mid Glamorgan, then you don't end up crossing the Mid Glamorgan/Gwent boundary. If I were forced to draw a 4-constituency West Glamorgan, I would offer this:  1 Swansea North 70126 Yes 2 Gower 72248 Yes 3 Neath 69860 Yes 4 Swansea Bay 74842 Yes |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 14, 2021 13:20:04 GMT
Have you considered moving Ystradgynlais out of Brecon & Radnor, linking it with Pontardawe etc? That would rotate everything round a bit, pushing Monmouth further into Newport and seems to help sort the mess around Caerphilly and Cardiff. Whether that also helps with Neath I don't know
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Post by mattb on Jan 14, 2021 20:57:44 GMT
Have you considered moving Ystradgynlais out of Brecon & Radnor, linking it with Pontardawe etc? That would rotate everything round a bit, pushing Monmouth further into Newport and seems to help sort the mess around Caerphilly and Cardiff. Whether that also helps with Neath I don't know My effort above does this, and thereby creates much neater seats in Cardiff as well as Caerphilly etc - but still has the Neath 'issue' (if it is an issue). In my scheme you could swap the west-of-Neath wards for the upper Neath valley but personally I think that's a bit weird. |
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
Posts: 3,589
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Post by cibwr on Jan 15, 2021 9:37:37 GMT
Interestingly at one time Denbighshire and Montgomeryshire had a combined police force... so there is quite a lot of not too distant linkage between those areas..... When? As far as I'm aware, the Montgomeryshire Constabulary existed until 1948, until it was merged under section 4 of the Police Act 1946 with Radnorshire and Brecknockshire to form the Mid-Wales Constabulary; in 1968 the Mid-Wales Constabulary was itself amalgamated with Carmarthenshire and Cardiganshire Constabulary and with Pembrokeshire Constabulary to form Dyfed-Powys Police. As for Denbighshire, it had its own force until it and Flintshire were merged into Gwynedd Constabulary (later rebranded as North Wales Police) in 1967. You are quite right, my error, I think it was their respective fire brigades.... Ill have to dig up the reference, I am sure there was a badge seen with the arms of both areas on.... |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jan 21, 2021 21:02:13 GMT
First draft, Wales 
1 Brecon & Newtown 70,914, safe Con 2 Conwy Coast 71,856 comfortably Con 3 Powys North & Meirionydd 71,011 marginal Con 4 Wrexham 74,852 marginal Con 5 Delyn 70,416 marginal Con 6 Alyn & Deeside 70,651 marginal Con 7 Dwyfor Arfon 70,519 safe PC 8 Conwy & Denbigh 71,063 reasonably safe Con 9 Ceredigion & Fishguard 74,412 hyper marginal PC 10 Pembrokeshire 76,471 marginal Con 11 Llanelli 72,367 safe Lab 12 Carmarthen 70,211 marginal Con 13 Swansea Central 72,581 safe Lab 14 Pontypridd & Aberdare 75,091 safe Lab 15 Bridgend 76,182 marginal Con 16 Afan Valley, Neath & Port Talbot 76,004 safe Lab 17 Swansea West & Gower 71,240 marginal Lab 18 Swansea North & Ystalafera 76,373 safe Lab 19 Llantwit & Vale of Glamorgan 75,536 reasonably safe Con 20 Penarth & Barry 70,735 reasonably safe Lab 21 Ogmore & the Rhondda 75,586 safe Lab 22 Cardiff Central 71,333 hyper safe Lab 23 Newport East & Central 76,159 reasonably safe Lab 24 Cardiff, St Fagans 75,082 marginal Lab 25 Merthyr & Rhymney 76,444 safe Lab 26 Caerphilly 75,102 safe Lab 27 Ebbw Vale 72,708 safe Lab 28 Newport West & Cardiff East reasonably safe 76,155 Lab 29 Cardiff, Rumney 69,936 safe Lab 30 Monmouthshire 72,681 safe Con 31 Torfaen 70,591 marginal Lab |
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Post by greenhert on Jan 21, 2021 21:54:02 GMT
First draft, Wales
1 Brecon & Newtown 70,914, safe Con 2 Conwy Coast 71,856 comfortably Con 3 Powys North & Meirionydd 71,011 marginal Con 4 Wrexham 74,852 marginal Con 5 Delyn 70,416 marginal Con 6 Alyn & Deeside 70,651 marginal Con 7 Dwyfor Arfon 70,519 safe PC 8 Conwy & Denbigh 71,063 reasonably safe Con 9 Ceredigion & Fishguard 74,412 hyper marginal PC 10 Pembrokeshire 76,471 marginal Con 11 Llanelli 72,367 safe Lab 12 Carmarthen 70,211 marginal Con 13 Swansea Central 72,581 safe Lab 14 Pontypridd & Aberdare 75,091 safe Lab 15 Bridgend 76,182 marginal Con 16 Afan Valley, Neath & Port Talbot 76,004 safe Lab 17 Swansea West & Gower 71,240 marginal Lab 18 Swansea North & Ystalafera 76,373 safe Lab 19 Llantwit & Vale of Glamorgan 75,536 reasonably safe Con 20 Penarth & Barry 70,735 reasonably safe Lab 21 Ogmore & the Rhondda 75,586 safe Lab 22 Cardiff Central 71,333 hyper safe Lab 23 Newport East & Central 76,159 reasonably safe Lab 24 Cardiff, St Fagans 75,082 marginal Lab 25 Merthyr & Rhymney 76,444 safe Lab 26 Caerphilly 75,102 safe Lab 27 Ebbw Vale 72,708 safe Lab 28 Newport West & Cardiff East reasonably safe 76,155 Lab 29 Cardiff, Rumney 69,936 safe Lab 30 Monmouthshire 72,681 safe Con 31 Torfaen 70,591 marginal Lab An interesting map, certainly. Caernarfon would surely be a better name for "Dwyfor Arfon" which covers most of Caernarfon(shire). And "Pembrokeshire" is really South Pembrokeshire even though your proposed seat is almost identical to the 1983-97 Pembroke constituency. Alyn, Deeside and Delyn no longer exist as districts so the names of Delyn and Alyn & Deeside should be retired and replaced with West Flintshire and East Flintshire. The problem with linking (most of) Montgomeryshire with Meirionydd is that it can be seen as gerrymandering against Plaid Cymru (Montgomeryshire has relatively few Welsh speakers, Meirionydd has many), even though there are at least some usable road and railway links between the two (which there are not between Montgomeryshire and Denbighshire). It is for this reason that the BCE never proposed such a Montgomeryshire-Meirionydd pairing in either the 2013 or 2018 reviews. |
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