2023 Review - Wales

[J.G.Harston]

2023 Review - Wales

[🏴‍☠️ Neath West 🏴‍☠️]

Let's cross-post my reply to ian48 in the main thread:

Something like this:

1. Ynys Môn 52,415 (unchanged)
2. Wrexham 72,371
3. Hawarden 72,518
4. Flint 70,592 (would probably end up being called "Delyn", despite that being an awful name)
5. Denbigh 74,078 (coterminous with LA)
6. Conwy 75,590
7. Caernarfon 76,378
8. Montgomeryshire and Meirionnydd 74,901
9. Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire 76,269
10. Pembroke 74,614
11. Carmarthen 70,869
12. Llanelli 71,709
13. Brecon and Radnorshire 70,599 (includes Pontardawe as islington suggested)
14. Gower 76,801 (really don't like that I've had to stick Cockett into this – the effect of putting Pontardawe into Brecon and Radnorshire is that the Swansea/Neath constituencies need to be relatively large) (from this point onwards, the blown-up version below will help!)
15. Swansea Central 74,612
16. Neath and Swansea East 77,155 (really don't like that I had to move the Pelenna ward out to get under the upper limit of 77,420)
17. Aberavon and Maesteg 72,554
18. Bridgend 70,890 (the existing constituency, plus Sarn etc)
19. Rhondda and Aberdare 76,235
20. Merthyr Tydfil and Mountain Ash 70,255
21. Pontypridd 74,677 (there's a four-way shuffle available here to avoid the LA boundary crossing (the 3 Pencoed wards, Pontyclun, Riverside, Cadoc), but it ends up splitting Barry town and generally looks a bit odd)
22. Vale of Glamorgan 70,426 (loses Dinas Powys)
23. Cardiff South and Penarth 72,809
24. Cardiff West 70,318
25. Cardiff North 70,771
26. Cardiff East 73,069
27. Blaenau Gwent 73,114
28. Islwyn and Gelligaer 72,263
29. Torfaen 70,591 (coterminous with LA)
30. Monmouth 72,681 (coterminous with LA)
31. Newport West and Caerphilly 74,394
32. Newport East 76,159

[LDCaerdydd]

Wales to go from 40 seats to 32 with Ynys Mon preserved due to unique geographical characteristics, voting Conservative once more.

So 'mainland' Wales goes from 39 to 31 seats. Looking at those 21 Loacal authorities as a start we get the following quotas:

Blaenau Gwent: 0.69
Bridgend: 1.48
Caerphilly: 1.81
Cardiff: 3.43
Carmarthenshire: 1.94
Ceredigion: 0.77
Conwy: 1.23
Denbighshire: 1.01
Flintshire: 1.60
Gwynedd: 1.19
Merthyr Tydfil: 0.61
Monmouthshire: 0.99
Neath Port Talbot: 1.47
Newport: 1.53
Pembrokeshire: 1.29
Powys: 1.42
Rhondda Cynon Taff: 2.38
Swansea: 2.44
Torfaen: 0.96
Vale of Glamorgan: 1.35
Wrexham: 1.33

Thanks to greenhert for the figures


Monmouthshire is 0.01% under quota as it is, so there's every chance that seat will remain as it is. And being located in a 'corner' of Wales the South East would be a good place to start redrawing the map.

[Harry Hayfield]

I have spotted a small problem with Wales, namely there are wards are being mis numbered, for instance Broughton North East from Flintshire (currently in Alyn and Deeside) is listed as W05001004, however on Boundary Assistant (for which I believe kevinlarkin deserves at least an OBE for and would be happy to give him a donate for, if he tells me how) it is listed as W05000184. Therefore could I ask what is going on in that regard?

[🏴‍☠️ Neath West 🏴‍☠️]

Jan 5, 2021 14:24:29 GMT LDCaerdydd said:

Wales to go from 40 seats to 32 with Ynys Mon preserved due to unique geographical characteristics, voting Conservative once more.

So 'mainland' Wales goes from 39 to 31 seats. Looking at those 21 Loacal authorities as a start we get the following quotas:

Blaenau Gwent: 0.69
Bridgend: 1.48
Caerphilly: 1.81
Cardiff: 3.43
Carmarthenshire: 1.94
Ceredigion: 0.77
Conwy: 1.23
Denbighshire: 1.01
Flintshire: 1.60
Gwynedd: 1.19
Merthyr Tydfil: 0.61
Monmouthshire: 0.99
Neath Port Talbot: 1.47
Newport: 1.53
Pembrokeshire: 1.29
Powys: 1.42
Rhondda Cynon Taff: 2.38
Swansea: 2.44
Torfaen: 0.96
Vale of Glamorgan: 1.35
Wrexham: 1.33

Thanks to greenhert for the figures


Monmouthshire is 0.01% under quota as it is, so there's every chance that seat will remain as it is. And being located in a 'corner' of Wales the South East would be a good place to start redrawing the map.

On a point of pedantry, the existing Monmouth constituency does not include all of Monmouthshire, but does include part of Torfaen.

[johnloony]

Jan 5, 2021 14:24:29 GMT LDCaerdydd said:

Wales to go from 40 seats to 32 with Ynys Mon preserved due to unique geographical characteristics, voting Conservative once more.

So 'mainland' Wales goes from 39 to 31 seats. Looking at those 21 Loacal authorities as a start we get the following quotas:

Blaenau Gwent: 0.69
Bridgend: 1.48
Caerphilly: 1.81
Cardiff: 3.43
Carmarthenshire: 1.94
Ceredigion: 0.77
Conwy: 1.23
Denbighshire: 1.01
Flintshire: 1.60
Gwynedd: 1.19
Merthyr Tydfil: 0.61
Monmouthshire: 0.99
Neath Port Talbot: 1.47
Newport: 1.53
Pembrokeshire: 1.29
Powys: 1.42
Rhondda Cynon Taff: 2.38
Swansea: 2.44
Torfaen: 0.96
Vale of Glamorgan: 1.35
Wrexham: 1.33

Thanks to greenhert for the figures


Monmouthshire is 0.01% under quota as it is, so there's every chance that seat will remain as it is. And being located in a 'corner' of Wales the South East would be a good place to start redrawing the map.

And the south-west corner is a nice round 4.00

[LDCaerdydd]

Jan 5, 2021 14:37:02 GMT 🏴‍☠️ Neath West 🏴‍☠️ said:

On a point of pedantry, the existing Monmouth constituency does not include all of Monmouthshire, but does include part of Torfaen.

I bow to both your superior knowledge and pedantry.

[Pete Whitehead]

Jan 5, 2021 14:31:53 GMT Harry Hayfield said:

I have spotted a small problem with Wales, namely there are wards are being mis numbered, for instance Broughton North East from Flintshire (currently in Alyn and Deeside) is listed as W05001004, however on Boundary Assistant (for which I believe kevinlarkin deserves at least an OBE for and would be happy to give him a donate for, if he tells me how) it is listed as W05000184. Therefore could I ask what is going on in that regard?

There's a link at the bottom of the site

[ian48]

Jan 5, 2021 14:23:38 GMT 🏴‍☠️ Neath West 🏴‍☠️ said:

Let's cross-post my reply to ian48 in the main thread:

Something like this:

1. Ynys Môn 52,415 (unchanged)
2. Wrexham 72,371
3. Hawarden 72,518
4. Flint 70,592 (would probably end up being called "Delyn", despite that being an awful name)
5. Denbigh 74,078 (coterminous with LA)
6. Conwy 75,590
7. Caernarfon 76,378
8. Montgomeryshire and Meirionnydd 74,901
9. Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire 76,269
10. Pembroke 74,614
11. Carmarthen 70,869
12. Llanelli 71,709
13. Brecon and Radnorshire 70,599 (includes Pontardawe as islington suggested)
14. Gower 76,801 (really don't like that I've had to stick Cockett into this – the effect of putting Pontardawe into Brecon and Radnorshire is that the Swansea/Neath constituencies need to be relatively large) (from this point onwards, the blown-up version below will help!)
15. Swansea Central 74,612
16. Neath and Swansea East 77,155 (really don't like that I had to move the Pelenna ward out to get under the upper limit of 77,420)
17. Aberavon and Maesteg 72,554
18. Bridgend 70,890 (the existing constituency, plus Sarn etc)
19. Rhondda and Aberdare 76,235
20. Merthyr Tydfil and Mountain Ash 70,255
21. Pontypridd 74,677 (there's a four-way shuffle available here to avoid the LA boundary crossing (the 3 Pencoed wards, Pontyclun, Riverside, Cadoc), but it ends up splitting Barry town and generally looks a bit odd)
22. Vale of Glamorgan 70,426 (loses Dinas Powys)
23. Cardiff South and Penarth 72,809
24. Cardiff West 70,318
25. Cardiff North 70,771
26. Cardiff East 73,069
27. Blaenau Gwent 73,114
28. Islwyn and Gelligaer 72,263
29. Torfaen 70,591 (coterminous with LA)
30. Monmouth 72,681 (coterminous with LA)
31. Newport West and Caerphilly 74,394
32. Newport East 76,159

This is a great attempt, fair play! I am not too familiar with boundaries in the South Wales valleys and nearby, so am surprised that Pontardawe would fit with Brecon and Rads. I guess it's not to far from Ystradgynlais and of course, there's little leeway these days. Interested to hear from a local if that's a more natural fit on the ground than it might appear to the external observer.

I think your North Wales seats are very good. The Arfon Dwyfor seat is a natural unit and those areas in it from Conwy are either a natural fit in being rural and Welsh speaking (Betws y Coed etc) or look to Bangor (Llanfairfechan). The ward bounaries around Conwy town are very tightly drawn so some areas of Caerhun ward are very much suburbs on Conwy town, but guess that can't be helped. Conwy, Llandudno & Colwyn Bay is a natural unit. so that seat works - Uwchaled is a bit out on a limb far up in the hills but that's ok. The Denbighshire seat is nice and co-terminous with the county which is helpful.

Mark Tami will be thankful for a seat like that in Flint East/Wrexham North. He will be a lot safer. On the other hand Wrexham I think would be stronger for the Tories. The Montgomery/Meirionydd seat is interesting. Montgomery was always classed as North Wales before Mid wales started to be seen as a separate unit, so it works pretty well and many parts of the western area of Montgomery are a natural fit with Meirionydd.

Overall in the North I guess East Flint would be Labour, Dwyfor/Arfon Plaid and the others Tory at 2019, so Tories lose two overall.

[kevinlarkin]

Jan 5, 2021 14:31:53 GMT Harry Hayfield said:

I have spotted a small problem with Wales, namely there are wards are being mis numbered, for instance Broughton North East from Flintshire (currently in Alyn and Deeside) is listed as W05001004, however on Boundary Assistant (for which I believe kevinlarkin deserves at least an OBE for and would be happy to give him a donate for, if he tells me how) it is listed as W05000184. Therefore could I ask what is going on in that regard?

For Wales Boundary Assistant is currently based on 2015 wards and electorates. It looks like there have been minor boundary changes in 2017 affecting 47 wards in 7 unitary counties. I will include these changes when I add the March 2020 data to the site.

[robert1]

(Pedant alert and for the benefit of LDCaerdydd) the amendment concerning Ynys Mon was seconded by a Plaid MP and received all Party support. But he probably knew that anyway

[Arthur Figgis]

Jan 5, 2021 16:50:34 GMT robert1 said:

(Pedant alert and for the benefit of LDCaerdydd) the amendment concerning Ynys Mon was seconded by a Plaid MP and received all Party support. But he probably knew that anyway

It would have been seconded by a Welsh Lib Dem MP, but...

[LDCaerdydd]

Jan 5, 2021 16:50:34 GMT robert1 said:

(Pedant alert and for the benefit of LDCaerdydd) the amendment concerning Ynys Mon was seconded by a Plaid MP and received all Party support. But he probably knew that anyway

I know.

Interesting how Ynys Mon is only protected however after it has elected a Conservative MP isn't it?

There were of course attempts by Labour and Plaid to protect it in the previous two aborted reviews (which were correctly IMO rejected by the government).

[Harry Hayfield]

Using the pre data dump electorates on Boundary Assistant (and then using it with the actual electorates released today), here is my "Wales 31 + Ynys Môn" submission:

1) Blaenau Gwent and the Rhymney Valley: 71,752 electors
2) Bridgend and the Vale of Glamorgan: 76,644 electors
3) Caerleon, Cwmbran and Pontypool: 72,417 electors
4) Caerphilly: 76,680 electors
5) Cardiff, Bute (name to be assessed for slavery connections): 72,475 electors
6) Cardiff, Llanishen: 72,271 electors
7) Cardiff, St. Fagans: 75,082 electors
8) Carmarthenshire: 70,416 electors
9) Ceredigion and the Preseli(s) (Mountains): 73,570 electors
10) Conwy Coast: 72,521 electors
11) Deeside: 70,972 electors
12) Denbighshire North: 71,578 electors
13) Eifionydd: 70,100 electors
14) Glynneath and Skewen: 72,699 electors
15) Gower: 71,240 electors
16) Llanelli: 71,463 electors
17) Merthyr Tydfil and the Northern Rhondda: 71,935 electors
18) Monmouthshire: 74,951 electors
19) Neath and Port Talbot: 71,769 electors
20) Newport: 75,765 electors
21) Ogmore Vale and Porthcawl: 75,699 electors
22) Pembrokeshire Coast: 71,034 electors
23) Penarth and Barry: 76,589 electors
24) Pontypridd: 76,170 electors
25) Senghenydd (named after the mining disaster): 72,050 electors
26) Snowdonia and Montgomeryshire North: 70,481 electors
27) Swansea: 74,949 electors
28) The Brecon Beacons and Montgomeryshire South: 73,718 electors
29) The Southern Rhondda: 71,578 electors
30) The Welsh Marches and Wrexham South: 71,443 electors
31) Wrexham North and Mold: 69,778 electors
32) Ynys Môn (protected): 52,415 electors

[Davıd Boothroyd]

I guess you'd like to rename Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale etc as Quintinshill.

[Penddu]

Jan 5, 2021 14:23:38 GMT 🏴‍☠️ Neath West 🏴‍☠️ said:

Let's cross-post my reply to ian48 in the main thread:

Something like this:

1. Ynys Môn 52,415 (unchanged)
2. Wrexham 72,371
3. Hawarden 72,518
4. Flint 70,592 (would probably end up being called "Delyn", despite that being an awful name)
5. Denbigh 74,078 (coterminous with LA)
6. Conwy 75,590
7. Caernarfon 76,378
8. Montgomeryshire and Meirionnydd 74,901
9. Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire 76,269
10. Pembroke 74,614
11. Carmarthen 70,869
12. Llanelli 71,709
13. Brecon and Radnorshire 70,599 (includes Pontardawe as islington suggested)
14. Gower 76,801 (really don't like that I've had to stick Cockett into this – the effect of putting Pontardawe into Brecon and Radnorshire is that the Swansea/Neath constituencies need to be relatively large) (from this point onwards, the blown-up version below will help!)
15. Swansea Central 74,612
16. Neath and Swansea East 77,155 (really don't like that I had to move the Pelenna ward out to get under the upper limit of 77,420)
17. Aberavon and Maesteg 72,554
18. Bridgend 70,890 (the existing constituency, plus Sarn etc)
19. Rhondda and Aberdare 76,235
20. Merthyr Tydfil and Mountain Ash 70,255
21. Pontypridd 74,677 (there's a four-way shuffle available here to avoid the LA boundary crossing (the 3 Pencoed wards, Pontyclun, Riverside, Cadoc), but it ends up splitting Barry town and generally looks a bit odd)
22. Vale of Glamorgan 70,426 (loses Dinas Powys)
23. Cardiff South and Penarth 72,809
24. Cardiff West 70,318
25. Cardiff North 70,771
26. Cardiff East 73,069
27. Blaenau Gwent 73,114
28. Islwyn and Gelligaer 72,263
29. Torfaen 70,591 (coterminous with LA)
30. Monmouth 72,681 (coterminous with LA)
31. Newport West and Caerphilly 74,394
32. Newport East 76,159

I agree with Dyfed, Gwent, South Glamorgan, East Glamorgan probably ok
But dont like West Glamorgan.

I would change the north by starting with a Gwynedd seat (exc Bangor) and rotating round from there - whuch would result in a North Montgomeryshire South Denbighsire seat. But the South Powys seat would not cross into West Glamorgan.

[minionofmidas]

Jan 5, 2021 19:21:12 GMT Penddu said:

But the South Powys seat would not cross into West Glamorgan.

Where would it cross into, then? Blaenau Gwent? (Somehow I never hear any traditional counties bores complain about that.)

[Penddu]

I will draw up my alternative and share - I am not a 'traditional county bore' and would happily place the Ystradgynlais area into a West Glamorgan seat. But a seat which combines Pontardawe with Radnorshire just doesnt work.

[minionofmidas]

Jan 6, 2021 4:04:02 GMT Penddu said:

I will draw up my alternative and share - I am not a 'traditional county bore' and would happily place the Ystradgynlais area into a West Glamorgan seat. But a seat which combines Pontardawe with Radnorshire just doesnt work.

Yes, of course it would make far more sense that way round but blame Westminster for that.

7.78 across the north plus Radnor/ Brycheiniog? Going to be very tight but perhaps possible given ward sizes.

[Foggy]

Jan 5, 2021 18:36:51 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

I guess you'd like to rename Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale etc as Quintinshill.

How about Lockerbie?