|
|
Post by No Offence Alan on Apr 5, 2021 10:01:43 GMT
Sorry, you've lost me there. Its what is says when I click on your link. You need to change the sharing settings. Any better? linkHow do I just display the image in the post? |
|
iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,453 
|
Post by iain on Apr 5, 2021 10:03:41 GMT
Yep that works now
|
|
|
|
Post by islington on Apr 5, 2021 11:23:21 GMT
Well, you've split Paisley, which is not necessary but I suppose can be justified on the grounds that the current map does the same (although on a different alignment). But my main comment would be that the seats tend to be rather big, meaning that you end up having to borrow a Rutherglen ward and, as a consequence of that, to split Hamilton.
I'd point out that the Renfrewshires plus Inverclyde plus Glasgow south of the Clyde form a logical area that totals to 441085 = 6.01 so I'd try to give it six seats to itself, and this will then make life easier in S Lanarks as well.
|
|
|
|
Post by islington on Apr 5, 2021 11:34:51 GMT
Its what is says when I click on your link. You need to change the sharing settings. Any better? linkHow do I just display the image in the post? Take a screenshot of your map and upload it to an image hosting site. Imgbb is easy to use and free.
When you've uploaded your image, ImgBB offers a range of 'Embed codes' options. The one you want is 'BBCode full linked'. This should consist of about three lines of programming and when it comes up a 'copy' tile should appear. Click this. (If no such tile appears, I imagine it would also work if you simply copied the programming.) Then, in the Forum, go to 'Reply' (not 'Quick reply') and it comes up with a reply box with two tabs at the bottom: 'Preview' (the default) and 'BBCode'. What I generally do is type my reply in 'Preview' mode but leave a few blank lines at the point where I want to insert the map. Then I switch to 'BBCode' and paste the computer programming at the appropriate point. Et voila! If you then switch back to 'Preview' the map should appear, and if you're happy with it you can then post in the usual way. I found this a bit of a rigmarole at first and not very intuitive, but once I'd done it a few times it was a doddle. PS: It was minionofmidas that kindly walked me through this, so kudos to him. |
|
|
|
Post by kevinlarkin on Apr 5, 2021 13:12:21 GMT
Any better? linkHow do I just display the image in the post? Take a screenshot of your map and upload it to an image hosting site. Imgbb is easy to use and free.
When you've uploaded your image, ImgBB offers a range of 'Embed codes' options. The one you want is 'BBCode full linked'. This should consist of about three lines of programming and when it comes up a 'copy' tile should appear. Click this. (If no such tile appears, I imagine it would also work if you simply copied the programming.) Then, in the Forum, go to 'Reply' (not 'Quick reply') and it comes up with a reply box with two tabs at the bottom: 'Preview' (the default) and 'BBCode'. What I generally do is type my reply in 'Preview' mode but leave a few blank lines at the point where I want to insert the map. Then I switch to 'BBCode' and paste the computer programming at the appropriate point. Et voila! If you then switch back to 'Preview' the map should appear, and if you're happy with it you can then post in the usual way. I found this a bit of a rigmarole at first and not very intuitive, but once I'd done it a few times it was a doddle. PS: It was minionofmidas that kindly walked me through this, so kudos to him. There is a way to embed an image directly from Google Drive, although it is a bit fiddly as you have to manually edit the URL you get when you share a link. Plus it is Google so it is largely undocumented and although it works today might not do so tomorrow. You can also do it from Microsoft OneDrive which is a lot easier as you don't have to edit the URL and it handles the sharing for you, just select the View Online option and then choose Embed to get the link. See the BBCode behind the images in this post vote-2012.proboards.com/post/979210/thread for examples of both. |
|
|
|
Post by islington on Apr 5, 2021 14:25:41 GMT
Reflecting further on how to get quorate seats in the Highlands without breaching the 13000 sq km limit, I note the suggestion someone made above of splitting the immense Wester Ross ward rather than extracting the Beauly area from Aird. Looking at the map below of boundaries in Scotland in 1947 - thus, essentially the pre-1975 arrangement - the former districts of Gairloch, Lochcarron and South West suggest themselves as a possible area. And I see on a map of Community Council areas the the boundary of these three former districts is reflected pretty well exactly by current Community Council boundaries.
Now, I have taken a wild guess and estimated, just by looking at the map, that these three districts amount to roughly half of the surface area of Wester Ross: that is, about 2500 sq km. And I am also taking an even wilder guess that they might amount to maybe about 3000-3500 electors. If so, the split would work fine and both seats would be legal in terms of both electorate and surface area.
But there are some fairly heroic assumptions involved so I am asking whether any kind person can direct me to an online source of data about Community Councils: the land area that they cover, their population, and (ideally) their electorate.
 |
|
|
|
Post by kevinlarkin on Apr 5, 2021 16:17:39 GMT
Reflecting further on how to get quorate seats in the Highlands without breaching the 13000 sq km limit, I note the suggestion someone made above of splitting the immense Wester Ross ward rather than extracting the Beauly area from Aird. Looking at the map below of boundaries in Scotland in 1947 - thus, essentially the pre-1975 arrangement - the former districts of Gairloch, Lochcarron and South West suggest themselves as a possible area. And I see on a map of Community Council areas the the boundary of these three former districts is reflected pretty well exactly by current Community Council boundaries. Now, I have taken a wild guess and estimated, just by looking at the map, that these three districts amount to roughly half of the surface area of Wester Ross: that is, about 2500 sq km. And I am also taking an even wilder guess that they might amount to maybe about 3000-3500 electors. If so, the split would work fine and both seats would be legal in terms of both electorate and surface area. But there are some fairly heroic assumptions involved so I am asking whether any kind person can direct me to an online source of data about Community Councils: the land area that they cover, their population, and (ideally) their electorate.
Here are the polling districts (blue borders) and unit postcodes (green) for the Wester Ross etc. ward. If the BCS do the same as they did in the first zombie review they will release electorates by unit postcode, but this is too small a unit to use as a sub-ward building block. The next step up in the postcode hierarchy is postal sector but this is too large (more than 8000 voters in some Edinburgh and Glasgow sectors) and cuts across ward boundaries. The best thing to do might be a best fit of unit post codes to polling districts. The polling district file for Scotland does not contain an area attribute but this can be calculated.  |
|
|
|
Post by islington on Apr 5, 2021 17:03:59 GMT
Fascinating. The area I have in mind comprises RO5E to RO5N inclusive, plus RO5U to RO5ZD inclusive. (It all makes sense if you trace it on the map.) This area coincides very closely with the six civil parishes of Applecross, Gairloch, Glenshiel, Kintail, Lochalsh and Lochcarron, which according to the wikipedia list linked below have a collective area of 284943 Ha = 2849 sq km and a population of 6214 in 2011. The latter represents 2.68% of the population of Highland at the 2011 census, so if we assume (riskily) that they represent the same proportion of the current electorate they come out at 4805 or thereabouts.
So long as it is at least 2516 and no more than 5307, everything works out perfectly; but it would be nice to have more authoritative numbers. (Please note in the wikipedia list the area of Kintail is given as 3195 Ha but this is clearly an error so I have assumed (yes, yet another assumption) that it is a typo for 31950 Ha, which looks about right given its size on the map.) en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_parishes_in_Scotland |
|
|
|
Post by No Offence Alan on Apr 6, 2021 18:12:19 GMT
Any better? linkHow do I just display the image in the post? Take a screenshot of your map and upload it to an image hosting site. Imgbb is easy to use and free.
When you've uploaded your image, ImgBB offers a range of 'Embed codes' options. The one you want is 'BBCode full linked'. This should consist of about three lines of programming and when it comes up a 'copy' tile should appear. Click this. (If no such tile appears, I imagine it would also work if you simply copied the programming.) Then, in the Forum, go to 'Reply' (not 'Quick reply') and it comes up with a reply box with two tabs at the bottom: 'Preview' (the default) and 'BBCode'. What I generally do is type my reply in 'Preview' mode but leave a few blank lines at the point where I want to insert the map. Then I switch to 'BBCode' and paste the computer programming at the appropriate point. Et voila! If you then switch back to 'Preview' the map should appear, and if you're happy with it you can then post in the usual way. I found this a bit of a rigmarole at first and not very intuitive, but once I'd done it a few times it was a doddle. PS: It was minionofmidas that kindly walked me through this, so kudos to him. Here we go:  |
|
|
|
Post by No Offence Alan on Apr 6, 2021 18:34:03 GMT
Well, you've split Paisley, which is not necessary but I suppose can be justified on the grounds that the current map does the same (although on a different alignment). But my main comment would be that the seats tend to be rather big, meaning that you end up having to borrow a Rutherglen ward and, as a consequence of that, to split Hamilton. I'd point out that the Renfrewshires plus Inverclyde plus Glasgow south of the Clyde form a logical area that totals to 441085 = 6.01 so I'd try to give it six seats to itself, and this will then make life easier in S Lanarks as well.
OK, the Renfrewshires + Inverclyde + Glasgow South of the Clyde as six seats. One Glasgow ward is split but they are so big I think it is unavoidable. My Glasgow SE and Glasgow SW are just about 2 quotas between them so you would take 6,000+ voters from Newlands/Auldburn out of SW into SE to bring them both into quota.  Paisley is still split, but Johnstone and Renfrew aren't. |
|
|
|
Post by No Offence Alan on Apr 6, 2021 19:00:24 GMT
Four seats for Ayrshire  |
|
|
|
Post by afleitch on Apr 6, 2021 21:55:24 GMT
It's worth remembering that in the last aborted Review the commission were happy to carve up wards in part because the Multi Member Wards aren't useful units for this purpose. So without the sub data it makes this a bit flat for now.  |
|
|
|
Post by islington on Apr 7, 2021 9:08:34 GMT
It's worth remembering that in the last aborted Review the commission were happy to carve up wards in part because the Multi Member Wards aren't useful units for this purpose. So without the sub data it makes this a bit flat for now. I can understand why you say that, but I hope it won't stop you from sharing the rest of your plan, to which I was looking forward. Regarding the sub-ward data issue, it depends what you're trying to do. If you are seeking to emulate BCS approach, then obviously you can't really produce detailed plans until those data are available. On the other hand, the BCS plans must be a source of deep embarrassment to all ward-split advocates because, even though they split wards all over Scotland, the overall results are terrible. I thought the whole point of ward-splitting was to avoid problems like the unnecessary division of towns, yet look at the treatment, in the 2018 review, of Dunfermline, Motherwell, Hamilton, Bearsden, Stirling ... (there are probably others). So I'd advocate an approach of keeping ward splits to a minimum, and in this spirit I currently have only five in the whole of Scotland (but for the 13000 sq km rule it would be four); and far from eviscerating towns with boundaries right through the middle the worst I have to apologize for is a severe haircut for Dumfries and Helensburgh.
Incidentally, does anyone know why the BCS sub-ward data is based on postcodes rather than PDs? I'd have though PD information would be relatively easy to gather and would make a lot more sense than postcodes, which are really messy and don't coincide with ward and district boundaries. While I'm on this subject, I'd like to ask kevinlarkin where he got that splendid map of PDs and postcodes in Wester Ross. Is this mapping available on line and if so, where? I'd be keen to look at the PD boundaries in the other wards I have a mind to split (namely: the Ferry (Dundee); Barrhead, &c (E Renfs); Leith Walk (Edinburgh); Carse, &c (Falkirk)). |
|
|
|
Post by islington on Apr 7, 2021 11:35:16 GMT
Well, you've split Paisley, which is not necessary but I suppose can be justified on the grounds that the current map does the same (although on a different alignment). But my main comment would be that the seats tend to be rather big, meaning that you end up having to borrow a Rutherglen ward and, as a consequence of that, to split Hamilton. I'd point out that the Renfrewshires plus Inverclyde plus Glasgow south of the Clyde form a logical area that totals to 441085 = 6.01 so I'd try to give it six seats to itself, and this will then make life easier in S Lanarks as well.
OK, the Renfrewshires + Inverclyde + Glasgow South of the Clyde as six seats. One Glasgow ward is split but they are so big I think it is unavoidable.My Glasgow SE and Glasgow SW are just about 2 quotas between them so you would take 6,000+ voters from Newlands/Auldburn out of SW into SE to bring them both into quota. Paisley is still split, but Johnstone and Renfrew aren't. You can do the whole of Glasgow and environs without a single ward split, on the sole condition that you really, really dislike Paisley.
Apart from the three seats covering the SW Glasgow / Newton Mearns / Paisley area, this is actually my preferred plan for the Glasgow area. The Glasgow Central, North and East seats all seem to work reasonably well and, in response to someone's comment upthread regarding North West, I'm sure Bearsden and Drumchapel will learn to love each other (and it has to be better than the evisceration of Bearsden proposed by the BCS in the 2018 review).
 |
|
YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,915
|
Post by YL on Apr 7, 2021 12:52:59 GMT
Thinking about the Highlands... A starting point is the following groupings of wards, which would provide three seats within the electorate range if it weren't for the fact that one of them has too large an area: Caithness, Sutherland & Ross (electorate 75,031, area 14,142 km 2): all Caithness and Sutherland wards; Dingwall & Seaforth, Cromarty Firth, Black Isle, Tain & Easter Ross; Wester Ross, Strathpeffer & Lochalsh. Inverness, Skye & Lochaber (electorate 75,534, area 9,470 km 2): all Inverness wards; Aird & Loch Ness, Eilean a' Cheò (i.e. Skye), Fort William & Ardnamurchan, Caol & Mallaig. Elgin, Nairn & Strathspey (electorate 69,750, area obviously small enough): remaining three Highland wards; four Moray wards). What I want to do is to trim the southern part of Wester Ross, Strathpeffer & Lochalsh and add it to Inverness, Skye & Lochaber, while hopefully not sending the latter over the electorate limit by too much that I can't trim it by removing only more the rural parts of Inverness South ward. I found polling station electorates for Highland in the 2019 European election; I couldn't find the General Election ones, but the ward electorates are only a little bigger, so these should be usable for approximations. (NB a couple of polling stations serve polling districts in two wards, but fortunately the numbers in these cases are not big.) If you take polling districts R05U and onwards from Wester Ross et al (Achmore, Plockton, Auchtertyre, Dornie, Inverinate, Glenelg, Kyle of Lochalsh, Glengarry) then the approximate electorate is 2,426. This area, basically a "greater Lochalsh", looks to me like it's about a quarter of the area of the ward, so it may be enough. Meanwhile the Strathnairn, Strathdearn and Balloch polling districts of Inverness South come to an approximate electorate of 1,268. Adding the former to Inverness, Skye & Lochaber while removing the latter gives it an electorate of approx. 76,692, which is within range by enough that I think this should work if I've judged the area correctly. It might be worth thinking about Argyll & Bute as well. I don't really want to add the whole of Fort William & Ardnamurchan ward to that seat; it splits the Lochaber area in an odd way and in particular splits the Fort William urban area. But the south-east part of the ward -- Nether Lochaber, Kinlochleven, Ballachulish, Glencoe, Duror -- might just be enough to get Argyll & Bute in range (the numbers look touch and go) and putting them there would avoid any need to hack at Inverness's urban area. Much of that area is historically Argyll anyway. |
|
|
|
Post by aidanthomson on Apr 7, 2021 21:04:19 GMT
I've had some success in locating polling district electorates (from relatively recent – meaning 2015 or later – elections, or polling district reviews) for a number of councils: Highland, Moray, Aberdeen, Perth & Kinross, Glasgow, Falkirk, Edinburgh, Renfrewshire, South Lanarkshire and Dumfries & Galloway. I've searched in vain for any that cover Fife, West Lothian, North Lanarkshire, East Dunbartonshire, East Renfrewshire and Argyll and Bute. I downloaded and saved the relevant files, but will try to find the links. I had to assume that the split of electors within the districts of each ward for a given election on a given date was the same as for the BCS's figures this time, but the chances are that they will be pretty close to that in most cases. Anyway, I think I've got a plan (or plans) for Scotland, which I'll post shortly. It's based on piperdave's suggested grouping of councils earlier on this thread, though I've also acted on (I think) YL's suggestion of linking the Renfrewshire authorities with Lanarkshire and Dunbartonshire. |
|
|
|
Post by kevinlarkin on Apr 7, 2021 21:12:19 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by aidanthomson on Apr 7, 2021 21:13:24 GMT
 Highlands seats: Caithness, Sutherland and Ross-shire: 71,559 Inverness and Skye: 76,750 Argyll, Bute and Lochaber: 75,891 Moray, Nairn and Strathspey: 75,768 Ward splits are: Wester Ross, Strathpeffer and Lochalsh (Torridon and Lochalsh go into Inverness, the rest to Caithness) Culloden and Ardersier (Ardersier goes into Moray, Culloden to Inverness) Lhanbryde and Fochabers (boundary is the River Spey; Lhanbryde goes to Moray, Fochabers to Banff and Buchan) I have no problem with Ardnamurchan going into Argyll and Bute, as it was part of the old Argyll seat before 1983. But I would prefer Caol to be added as well. This would have the added benefit of meaning that the whole of Culloden and Ardersier could go into Inverness, and the whole of Lhanbryde and Fochabers to Moray. For Caol to be added to Argyll, Bute would need to be removed, perhaps to Inverclyde – though that would mean a tri-council seat. |
|
|
|
Post by aidanthomson on Apr 7, 2021 21:23:07 GMT
 Grampian seats: Banff and Buchan: 75,472 Gordon: 75,497 Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine: 76,034 Aberdeen North: 71,619 Aberdeen South: 69,896 Ward splits: Lhanbryde and Fochabers: east of the Spey is in Banff and Buchan, west of the Spey is in Moray George Street/Harbour: a couple of PDs (Sunnybank and Pittodrie North) are in Aberdeen North, the rest is in Aberdeen South (Incidentally, once or twice there may be irregularities in my figures between those that I quote here and those that are in the left-hand column. That's down to finding polling district data at a later stage, rather than having to make an educated guess. But there isn't anything that is outside the permitted range.) |
|
|
|
Post by aidanthomson on Apr 7, 2021 21:35:28 GMT
 Mid Scotland and Fife seats: Angus and East Perthshire: 76,763 Perth and West Perthshire: 74,589 Dundee West: 74,014 Dundee East: 75,751 Fife North East and Kinross: 69,810 Glenrothes: 71,448 Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath: 72,808 Dunfermline and West Fife: 75,189 Split wards: Strathmore: Alyth and Meigle go into Angus, the rest into Dundee West Leven, Kennoway, Largo: Largo goes into Fife NE, the rest into Glenrothes Lochgelly, Cardenden, Benarty: Lochgelly goes into Kirkcaldy, the rest into Glenrothes Inverkeithing and Dalgety Bay: Inverkeithing goes into Dunfermline, the rest into Kirkcaldy (as per the current seats) There are no up-to-date PD electorates for Fife, so I've had to guess somewhat here. I've treated Largo as approximately 20% of the Leven ward electorate, Lochgelly as about 40% of its eponymous ward, and split I&DB 50/50. Given that the Largo figure is, I would say, at the lower end of likelihoods, there should be enough wiggle room even if these guesses are a bit out. Kinross can be added to Glenrothes and the whole of Leven to Fife NE, and the numbers would also work. I've always assumed that the main communication routes around Kinross are north-south (the M90) and east-west (A91), which is why I didn't link it with Glenrothes. But I don't really know the area. The arrangement around Dundee isn't ideal, as the western part of Sidlaw/Monifieth is currently in Dundee West and ideally would remain there, but that would result in a tri-council seat. |
|
