J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,840 
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Post by J.G.Harston on Jan 5, 2021 13:57:34 GMT
2023 Review - Scotland
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piperdave
SNP
Dalkeith; Midlothian/North & Musselburgh
Posts: 911
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Post by piperdave on Jan 5, 2021 14:44:19 GMT
The Boundary Commission for Scotland has announced that Scotland is entitled to 57 seats under the review, two less than in 2005 when the existing boundaries came into effect. The review will therefore be concerned with the 55 'mainland' seats as the constituencies of Orkney & Shetland and Na h-Eileanan an Iar (the Western Isles) are preserved by the legislation. The electoral quota for the new constituencies is 73,393, with an upper limit of 77,062 and a lower limit of 69,724. However, a smaller electorate can be proposed if the geographical size of a constituency is between 12,000 and 13,000 square kilometers. I expect at least one constituency will be recommended using this derogation. |
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Post by greatkingrat on Jan 5, 2021 15:24:09 GMT
The electoral quota for the new constituencies is 73,393, with an upper limit of 77,062 and a lower limit of 69,724. However, a smaller electorate can be proposed if the geographical size of a constituency is between 12,000 and 13,000 square kilometers. I expect at least one constituency will be recommended using this derogation. Any reason why? They didn't need to use the derogation when it was 600 seats, so 650 should be easier? |
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piperdave
SNP
Dalkeith; Midlothian/North & Musselburgh
Posts: 911
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Post by piperdave on Jan 5, 2021 21:44:55 GMT
The proposed Highland North was only just within the geographical limit but would have been nearly spot on the quota for this review. However, It looks unlikely that the Nairn and Cawdor ward could be part of a Moray & Nairn constituency this time round so that has to go with Inverness meaning a more compact seat there and more geography to absorb in the west of the Highlands (perhaps just the area west of the Ness in Aird & Loch Ness ward compared to the current INB&S constituency).
Having looked at the electorate figures (though will someone please publish parliamentary electorate by ward!!), RSL and CSER have both grown in electorate but have fallen slightly as a share of the Scottish electorate overall. Argyll & Bute has also increased in electorate but reduced as a percentage of the Scottish electorate.
I'm sure the BComm will work hard to find a configuration that doesn't invoke the geographical limit but it could be harder this time around.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jan 5, 2021 22:01:35 GMT
I'm just looking forward to the names they come up with. "Caithness, Sutherland, Ross, Skye & Lochaber" for 5 places mentioned anyone?
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Post by MacShimidh on Jan 5, 2021 22:23:05 GMT
I'm just looking forward to the names they come up with. "Caithness, Sutherland, Ross, Skye & Lochaber" for 5 places mentioned anyone? Gallaibh, Cataibh, Ros, Eilean a' Cheò agus Loch Abar has a better ring to it  |
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piperdave
SNP
Dalkeith; Midlothian/North & Musselburgh
Posts: 911
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Post by piperdave on Jan 5, 2021 22:26:49 GMT
I'm just looking forward to the names they come up with. "Caithness, Sutherland, Ross, Skye & Lochaber" for 5 places mentioned anyone? Gallaibh, Cataibh, Ros, Eilean a' Cheò agus Loch Abar has a better ring to it Or will it be Argyll, Bute, Lochaber, Skye & Lochalsh? (sans Helensburgh) |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,832
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Post by john07 on Jan 5, 2021 22:27:03 GMT
I'm just looking forward to the names they come up with. "Caithness, Sutherland, Ross, Skye & Lochaber" for 5 places mentioned anyone? Gallaibh, Cataibh, Ros, Eilean a' Cheò agus Loch Abar has a better ring to it Why not ‘Here be Dragons’ or the suitable Gaelic translation? |
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,474
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Post by peterl on Jan 5, 2021 22:28:17 GMT
Highlands North.
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Post by loderingo on Jan 5, 2021 22:45:39 GMT
The Scottish commission has published electorates for existing seats so I have had a go at working out entitlements using existing groupings
Group 1
Argyll - 0.92
Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire - 4.77
Moray - 0.97
Highland - 2.45
Total 9.11 - 9 seats (down 1). Aberdeen City can likely stand alone. Moray could stand alone but might have to change due to the small border between Abs and Highland
Group 2
Dundee and Angus - 2.70
Perthshire + Clacks - 2.10
Fife - 3.79
Stirling - 0.95
Falkirk + W lothian - 3.52
Total - 13.05 - 13 seats (unchanged)
Stirling could stand alone but will likely have to change due to the Forth estuary.
Group 3
Edinburgh - 4.94
E Lothian - 1.12
Total - 6.06 - 6 seats (no change)
Group 4
S, N, E Ayrshire - 3.95 - 4 seats (no change)
Group 5
Inverclyde - 0.83
Renfrewshire - 1.87
Glasgow - 6.09
Total 8.8 - 9 seats (down 1)
Group 6
W Dunbarts - 0.92
E Dunbarts + N Lanark - 4.67
Dumfries.S Lanark, Borders - 6.29
Total - 11.88 - 12 seats unchanged
It might be possible to split out E + W Dunbarts as a pair
Standalone
Midlothian - 0.97 - 1 seat
E renfs - 0.99 - 1 seat
2 special seats
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Post by No Offence Alan on Jan 5, 2021 22:55:54 GMT
Group 5 Inverclyde - 0.83 Renfrewshire - 1.87 Glasgow - 6.09 Total 8.8 - 9 seats (down 1) My neck of the woods. If Inverclyde and Renfrewshire only total 2.70 quotas, then the Glasgow boundary will have to be crossed to make 3 seats. I expect the commission will resist this, and take some electorate from North Ayrshire instead. |
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piperdave
SNP
Dalkeith; Midlothian/North & Musselburgh
Posts: 911
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Post by piperdave on Jan 5, 2021 22:59:18 GMT
Group 5 Inverclyde - 0.83 Renfrewshire - 1.87 Glasgow - 6.09 Total 8.8 - 9 seats (down 1) My neck of the woods. If Inverclyde and Renfrewshire only total 2.70 quotas, then the Glasgow boundary will have to be crossed to make 3 seats. I expect the commission will resist this, and take some electorate from North Ayrshire instead. I wouldn't be surprised to see a Clyde Coast constituency. The other way to go of course is over the Erskine Bridge (Clyde Banks?) but I desperately need those ward data! |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Jan 5, 2021 23:03:15 GMT
My neck of the woods. If Inverclyde and Renfrewshire only total 2.70 quotas, then the Glasgow boundary will have to be crossed to make 3 seats. I expect the commission will resist this, and take some electorate from North Ayrshire instead. I wouldn't be surprised to see a Clyde Coast constituency. The other way to go of course is over the Erskine Bridge (Clyde Banks?) but I desperately need those ward data! I wouldn't be surprised if a "domino effect" resulted in a Girvan and Galloway seat. |
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piperdave
SNP
Dalkeith; Midlothian/North & Musselburgh
Posts: 911
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Post by piperdave on Jan 5, 2021 23:10:25 GMT
The south of Scotland looks awkward at the minute if you keep the current groupings but I look forward to working out how to kill off DCT.
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obsie
Non-Aligned
Posts: 866
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Post by obsie on Jan 6, 2021 4:55:20 GMT
Gallaibh, Cataibh, Ros, Eilean a' Cheò agus Loch Abar has a better ring to it Why not ‘Here be Dragons’ or the suitable Gaelic translation? Uile-Bheistean An-Seo.
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Post by Richard Gadsden on Jan 6, 2021 17:40:33 GMT
I'm just looking forward to the names they come up with. "Caithness, Sutherland, Ross, Skye & Lochaber" for 5 places mentioned anyone? Pretty sure that would be over the area limit. I was having a play and I think the only way to get Caithness and Sutherland up to the quota without breaking the area rules is "Caithness, Sutherland and Inverness East" (yes, East - you come down through the Black Isle and over Kessock Bridge to pick up two urban wards of Inverness Central and Inverness Millburn). Then you have "Ross, Skye, Lochaber and Inverness West" and the Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey region either goes with most of Moray, or with all of rural Perthshire. If you're allowed a vast rural seat from Skye to John O'Groats ("Caithness, Sutherland, Ross and Skye", probably), then you have "Inverness and Fort William" (or "Caledonian Canal") and you have a similar three-ward remnant around Aviemore to tack on. Numerically it works better with Perthshire ("North Perthshire, Badenoch, Nairn and Strathspey") (leaving the rest of the local authority as "Perth and Kinross"), but geographically, going into Moray is a much more sensible approach. I had a look at the boundary crossing with Aberdeenshire (geographically an atrocity) and with Argyll and Bute (this inevitably goes way over the area limit). Here's the Perthshire crossing, just to show why the only reasonable option is to cross into Moray (this is the least-worst of Perthshire, Aberdeenshire and Argyll and Bute):  |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jan 6, 2021 18:26:58 GMT
I'm just looking forward to the names they come up with. "Caithness, Sutherland, Ross, Skye & Lochaber" for 5 places mentioned anyone? Gallaibh, Cataibh, Ros, Eilean a' Cheò agus Loch Abar has a better ring to it Although if we're going for the local language, Caithness and Sutherland should be named in Norse |
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Post by loderingo on Jan 9, 2021 23:11:20 GMT
The south of Scotland looks awkward at the minute if you keep the current groupings but I look forward to working out how to kill off DCT. I can see why you want to kill off DCT but I think you will be out of luck. The issue is that D&G needs a partner as it is entitled to about 1.5 seats. If you are not going to pair D&G with S Lanark or Borders then the only other partner is E or S Ayrshire. The issue here is that the 3 Ayrshire councils are entitled to pretty much 4 seats exactly. In fact all 4 seats are in quota and can be left alone if you don't mind split wards (I assume from the last aborted review that the Scottish commission will be quite liberal with ward splits). The D&G and BRS seats are both within quota. DCT is slightly below while Lanark is slightly above so transferring the rest of the split Clydesdale East ward would fix both of them. |
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piperdave
SNP
Dalkeith; Midlothian/North & Musselburgh
Posts: 911
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Post by piperdave on Jan 10, 2021 16:15:43 GMT
The south of Scotland looks awkward at the minute if you keep the current groupings but I look forward to working out how to kill off DCT. I can see why you want to kill off DCT but I think you will be out of luck. The issue is that D&G needs a partner as it is entitled to about 1.5 seats. If you are not going to pair D&G with S Lanark or Borders then the only other partner is E or S Ayrshire. The issue here is that the 3 Ayrshire councils are entitled to pretty much 4 seats exactly. In fact all 4 seats are in quota and can be left alone if you don't mind split wards (I assume from the last aborted review that the Scottish commission will be quite liberal with ward splits). The D&G and BRS seats are both within quota. DCT is slightly below while Lanark is slightly above so transferring the rest of the split Clydesdale East ward would fix both of them. All valid points. But if you look more widely, there have to be some changes around Renfrewshire and Inverclyde, East Lothian needs to lose electorate as well, and all the other South Lanarkshire seats are far too large. I would want to keep the Ayrshires intact as a review region ideally but it might have to be sacrificed for the greater good. |
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Post by chrisscot1988 on Jan 10, 2021 17:07:04 GMT
Group 5 Inverclyde - 0.83 Renfrewshire - 1.87 Glasgow - 6.09 Total 8.8 - 9 seats (down 1) My neck of the woods. If Inverclyde and Renfrewshire only total 2.70 quotas, then the Glasgow boundary will have to be crossed to make 3 seats. I expect the commission will resist this, and take some electorate from North Ayrshire instead. I wonder if East Renfrewshire might not survive intact. It makes sense to keep it as it's within quota though. |
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