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Post by No Offence Alan on Apr 9, 2021 20:00:33 GMT
North Lanarkshire and South Lanarkshire as 7 seats  That is a brilliant plan in itself. It leaves you to get five seats into Glasgow north of the Clyde plus E Duns, and there's at least one non-split way of doing that. But isn't all this going to leave you with Edinburgh/WLothian/Falkirk = 8.45?
I'm not thinking that far ahead! I have a plan up the thread for a 5-seat Glasgow North + East Dunbartonshire. |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Apr 9, 2021 20:43:34 GMT
West Lothian, Falkirk, Stirling and Clackmannanshire as 5 seats. Those of a nervous disposition should look away now.  |
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Post by minionofmidas on Apr 9, 2021 20:55:09 GMT
West Lothian, Falkirk, Stirling and Clackmannanshire as 5 seats. Those of a nervous disposition should look away now. No offence, but no. |
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Eastwood
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Post by Eastwood on Apr 9, 2021 22:01:10 GMT
West Lothian, Falkirk, Stirling and Clackmannanshire as 5 seats. Those of a nervous disposition should look away now. No offence, but no. Burn it with fire! |
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Post by aidanthomson on Apr 9, 2021 22:07:47 GMT
  I've had a rethink about Glasgow/Dunbartonshire/Lanarkshire/Renfrewshire. Having small groups of authorities may be the Commission's preferred option, but not if it results in bad seats. So I've decided to take all eight of these councils together, subdivided into three, rather than as before. This doesn't mean that these seats are good ones, but I think they're better than what I had before. Group 1: Greater Renfrewshire and south Glasgow. As this is an attempt to answer the rhetorical question I asked @no Offence Alan about the knock-on effects of an Inverclyde/Renfrewshire/south Glasgow grouping, I've done the only sensible thing which is to adopt his plan (and thereby consume much humble pie). I've tried to flesh out the details of how Newlands/Auldburn might be split, and have done so along current polling district boundaries, with an estimate of electorates. There are other ways it could be done, of course. 1. Inverclyde: 73,071. 2. Paisley West and Johnstone: 74,952. 3. Paisley East and Cardonald: 72,975. 4. Renfrewshire East: 72,959. 5. Glasgow South West: 75,052. 6. Glasgow South East: 72,076. Group 2: Dunbartonshire, north Glasgow and wards 1–6 of North Lanarkshire. Main things to note: i) Stepps is the extra ward used to get the north side's numbers up to the minimum; ii) I've therefore transferred just the Baljaffray district of Bearsden North into Dunbartonshire West to get its numbers up to the minimum, having assumed that its moving into Argyll and Bute isn't an option (if it were, then Bearsden North wouldn't be split); iii) I've maintained the division of Kirkintilloch between seats more or less as it is. There are several ward splits: a) East Centre (East/North East, along Edinburgh Road), b) Victoria Park (Central/North West, along Crow Road/Balshagray Avenue), c) Canal (North West/North East, mostly along railway line), d) Kirkintilloch North and East (along existing constituency boundary), e) Bearsden North (along Stockiemuir Road and Duntocher Road). 7. Glasgow East: 70,255. 8. Glasgow Central: 69,996. 9. Glasgow North East: 73,050. 10. Glasgow North West: 74,012. 11. Cumbernauld: 70,727. 12. Dunbartonshire East: 72,399. 13. Dunbartonshire West: 70,147. Group 3: the rest of Lanarkshire. There are various ways of doing this, and I suggested one in my previous plan. Something to note is that a large chunk of the town of Wishaw is in Murdostoun ward, and a smaller chunk is in Motherwell South East. Therefore, these wards should ideally be in the same seat. Ward splits include: a) Motherwell North (Newarthill, which isn't part of the town of Motherwell, is in Bellshill/Wishaw, the rest in Hamilton/Motherwell), b) Avondale etc. (Stonehouse is in Lanark, the rest in East Kilbride, as before), c) Hamilton North & East (Ferniegair is in Lanark, the rest in Hamilton/Motherwell). Ideally, I'd split Motherwell South East as well so that the parts of Wishaw in that ward can be moved to Bellshill and Wishaw; this could perhaps be made to work if Bellshill ward were split and Orbiston moved into Hamilton and Motherwell, along the existing constituency boundary. 14. Airdrie and Coatbridge: 76,626. 15. Bellshill and Wishaw: 75,727. 16. Hamilton and Motherwell: 76,239. 17. Rutherglen: 71,612. 18. East Kilbride: 70,353. 19. Lanark: 69,791. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Apr 10, 2021 10:35:48 GMT
Group 4 (E Dunbartonshire, N Glasgow, Lanarkshire, Falkirk, W Lothian) Fifteen constituencies here. The average seat needs an electorate of about 75k, which reduces your room for manouevre. Most of them alright, but a couple are distinctly sub-optimal and are probably best dealt with by a fairly liberal approach to ward-splitting. I've been a bit more willing to cross the Glasgow boundary than some other plans, mostly because in a lot of places it really isn't obvious where it is on the ground. Local snobbery is local snobbery, so some of those might be unpopular. Glasgow NW and Bearsden (75746) - no, this isn't going to be popular, but if Bearsden doesn't like it then may I suggest it stops being a Glasgow suburb? Glasgow Central (76834) - despite the name, Anderston/City is the only ward carried over from the current seat and it's actually the successor to the current North. Glasgow North (67599 before split) - successor to NE. This needs to cross the city boundary to get up to size and I think grabbing Stepps and Cardowan would be the best way to do this. Glasgow East (72384 before split) - will also add a bit of Calton Bishopbriggs, Chryston & Kilsyth (82280 before split) - this is a leftovers constituency but is at least moderately compact Cumbernauld and Falkirk West (68497 before split) - needs to gain Stenhousemuir and possibly a bit more of Carse, Kinnaird and Tryst ward Falkirk (83041 before split) - possibly Falkirk Central, but it contains all of the eponymous town Linlithgow & Falkirk East (68430 before split) - the existing split of Whitburn and Blackburn ward probably works here Livingston (78674 before split) Clydesdale & Shotts (75846) - another leftover Coatbridge & Airdrie (76626) - a very neat way of getting a large seat. If you want to eliminate a crossing of the Glasgow boundary, though, you may end up needing to trim off the non-Airdrie bits of Airdrie North and South wards to let it drift westwards a bit Motherwell & Wishaw (75594) Hamilton & Bellshill (75739) - a decidedly unlovely seat, which I'd definitely look to eliminate if I was utilising more splits East Kilbride (75161) Rutherglen & Calton (78485 before split) - not just an orphan ward, but an orphan ward on the other side of the Clyde from the rest of the seat. In an ideal world I'd split more wards, loop round Blantyre and head for the Bellshill area instead Group 5 (S Glasgow, Renfrewshire and Inverclyde) Glasgow South Central (83037 before split) - a SE/SW split is possible, but this is neater and feels less disruptive Glasgow South (64091 before split) - I'm not sure if Langside or Pollokshields is the best ward to split to get up to size Renfrewshire East & Cardonald (72975) - a north-south split is possible with ward-splitting, though Paisley still gets divided either way Paisley West & Johnstone (74952) Inverclyde & Bishopston (73071)
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Post by islington on Apr 10, 2021 11:01:06 GMT
West Lothian, Falkirk, Stirling and Clackmannanshire as 5 seats. Those of a nervous disposition should look away now. So - Livingston, Falkirk town, Stirling all split, the last of them three ways. This is a real shame because up to this point, there's been so much to admire in the schemes put forward by No Offence Alan - especially the combination of the two Lanarkshires for 7 seats, and the consequent elimination of DCT.
No matter. I see you've left yourself with the rest of Scotland = 18.08, which should be comfortably feasible for 18, so crack on.
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Post by islington on Apr 10, 2021 15:49:29 GMT
Sorry to trespass on No Offence Alan 's turf, but I couldn't resist having a go at it myself. I've indulged myself to the extent of steering clear of ward splits - not a single one, even in Dundee - and in order to do this I had to stray into Lanarks and spoil his Cumbernauld seat (but the rest of his Larnarks plan can remain as he has it). I've also gone for a (perhaps) less horrible non-split division of Livingston. There are some poor arrangements here, including Blairgowrie & Monifieth (or whatever you'd call it), plus I couldn't get rid of the split of Falkirk town. On the other hand, Stirling is now good for a seat identical to the district and I like the Perth and Angus seats too. And this approach helps a lot further north - see the next post.  |
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Post by islington on Apr 10, 2021 16:05:52 GMT
Now, I'm actually very happy with this part of the plan. Note that, although not shown (to keep the map to a reasonable size), Caol as well as Ft William goes in with Argyll. Those two wards plus A&B plus W Duns = 150460, which we already know gives two seats without splits and with the larger seat still less than 12000 sq km - plus the option if we want of popping out Bute to go with Ayrshire. The two seats wholly in Highland sum to 143587, which should yield easily to the kind of split we've discussed upthread in Wester Ross, with both seats within range in terms of electorate and neither exceeding the permitted extent. As for the rest of the map, this is the best I've seen so far: the East Anglian Lefty plan for Aberdeen plus coherent and legal seats of Moray & Nairn; Banff & Buchan; Gordon; Kincardine & Deeside; and Angus as mentioned in the previous post.
This would instantly become my preferred plan if I could think of a way of getting it to work better in central Scotland.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Apr 10, 2021 16:49:52 GMT
Electorate and community-wise, one arrangement that seems like it ought to work is giving 2 seats to Aberdeen, then 10 to Dundee; Angus; Aberdeenshire; Moray; Highland; Argyll & Bute and the three western wards of West Dunbartonshire. Clydebank can then go with Glasgow north of the Clyde, East Dunbartonshire, the Lanarkshires, Falkirk and West Lothian to produce 16 seats, with another 6 for Greater Renfrewshire and southern Glasgow. This allows more variation in seat sizes in the Central Belt and looks like it'd produce neater seats and fewer boundary crossings.
The snag is that the 10 seats in the northern group then need to have an average electorate of about 75k. This isn't a problem in the north-east, but I can't find a way to do it in the Highlands without splitting Inverness or having seats over the maximum hectare limit. Can anybody crack that?
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Post by aidanthomson on Apr 10, 2021 17:41:18 GMT
That is a brilliant plan in itself. It leaves you to get five seats into Glasgow north of the Clyde plus E Duns, and there's at least one non-split way of doing that. But isn't all this going to leave you with Edinburgh/WLothian/Falkirk = 8.45?
I'm not thinking that far ahead! I have a plan up the thread for a 5-seat Glasgow North + East Dunbartonshire. One caveat: having Wishaw and Murdostoun in two separate seats means that the town of Wishaw is split, something that unfortunately isn't clear from the ward name. Indeed, there are parts of the town of Wishaw in the Motherwell South East seat as well, while the majority of the Motherwell North ward isn't in Motherwell itself. The ward boundaries there are a bit curious. As an aside, the historical boundaries for Lanarkshire make for interesting observation. The old Lanark seat consisted of Clydesdale plus parts of what is now North Lanarkshire, including Newmains and Overtown. So there's certainly a precedent for including parts of Murdostoun with Lanark. I'm not sure that Shotts or some of the places in Fortissat just off the M8 would be so keen to be linked thus, though! |
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Post by aidanthomson on Apr 10, 2021 19:00:43 GMT
Group 4 (E Dunbartonshire, N Glasgow, Lanarkshire, Falkirk, W Lothian)Fifteen constituencies here. The average seat needs an electorate of about 75k, which reduces your room for manouevre. Most of them alright, but a couple are distinctly sub-optimal and are probably best dealt with by a fairly liberal approach to ward-splitting. I've been a bit more willing to cross the Glasgow boundary than some other plans, mostly because in a lot of places it really isn't obvious where it is on the ground. Local snobbery is local snobbery, so some of those might be unpopular. Glasgow NW and Bearsden (75746) - no, this isn't going to be popular, but if Bearsden doesn't like it then may I suggest it stops being a Glasgow suburb? It will certainly be interesting to see what local reaction is if this combination gets proposed by the Commission!  Agreed, especially given the fact that a village as small as Millerston is split between Glasgow and North Lanarkshire. From what I remember, Whitburn is about twice the size of Blackburn, so you'd probably have to add Blackburn to Linlithgow to make the numbers work. Alternatively, you can move Whitburn and Blackburn into Linlithgow and Broxburn et al. into Livingston, and split Blackburn by moving Winchburgh into Linlithgow. While it might look less neat, Whitburn has always been with Linlithgow for Westminster since 1983, and Broxburn has always been with Livingston; the ward sizes are similar, and there'd be the benefit of relatively limited change from the current seat. What to do with Clydesdale will be tricky. I'm not sure that Shotts is the answer, though I realise that with your electorates being at the higher end there's relatively little room for manoeuvre. Unlovely, yes, but it's the flip side of having a good Motherwell and Wishaw. I could still see the Commission proposing it, as it's not entirely dissimilar to the Hamilton North and Bellshill that existed prior to 2005. Definite pitchfork territory! My impression is that Rutherglen's resistance to incorporation into Glasgow is up there with Bearsden's. (The 1974–83 Rutherglen seat did go north of the river, to Mount Vernon and Garrowhill, which were then in Lanarkshire, but those areas are more suburban.)
Langside, I'd say: Toryglen, Battlefield and Langside north of the White Cart in South Central (roughly half the ward, so the numbers fit), with Langside south of the White Cart, Holmlea, Mount Florida and King's Park in South. The shape is a little awkward, but I'd say it's better than splitting Pollokshields.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Apr 11, 2021 10:35:47 GMT
I'm not going to bother posting the rest of my groupings, because the arrangements I came up with in Ayrshire and along the border have already been posted and I can't be bothered to calculate ward splits for Edinburgh. Instead I'm going to post my alternative plan, based on having larger seats in northern Scotland, putting Clydebank in with Glasgow and having smaller seats in Lanarkshire. Technically this results in local authorities from the Highlands to South Lanarkshire forming a single group and another from Fife to Aberdeenshire, but in practice there are recognisable sub-groupings within these regions so I'm not overly fussed about that. The Central Belt Glasgow NW & Clydebank (74739) - Clydebank is a contiguous part of Glasgow's built up area, whereas there's several miles of open country between it and Dumbarton, so this is a combination that makes a certain kind of intuitive sense. It probably wouldn't be popular, but it'd get fewer letters from Outraged of Bearsden East Dunbartonshire (70773) - drops Kirkintilloch, adds Kilsyth. Could probably be avoided with ward-splitting, but I'm not sure it's a problem anyway Glasgow North (71697) Glasgow Central (70938) - does take in the northern extremities of the city area. I think the name is still accurate enough given where the population is concentrated, but if it bothers you you could swap Canal ward for Hillhead Glasgow East (72384) - no change after realignment Strathkelvin & Springburn (63869 before splits) - a triborough seat, but quite a cohesive one. Will gain the extra electors from parts of Airdrie North ward outside Airdrie proper Coatbridge & Airdrie (76626 before split) Cumbernauld & Falkirk West (68497 before split) - plus about half of Carse, Kinnaird & Tryst ward Falkirk East (83041 before split) Linlithgow and Bo'ness (68430 before split) - small ward-split required with Livingston Livingston (78674 before split) Motherwell & Bellshill (71424) - you can get Wishaw in with a bit of ward-splitting if you want Lanark and Shotts (77032 before split) - needs to lose a bit of Clydesdale to Hamilton Hamilton (68492 before split) Rutherglen (71612) East Kilbride (75161) Tayside/CentralClacks, Fife and Perthshire work for six seats, but then you can't get whole seats out of NE Scotland without splitting Moray. So instead I've combined this group with Angus and Aberdeenshire.  Dunfermline (68231 before split) - as before Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath (74637 before split) Glenrothes (79547 before split) - minus Largo St Andrews & Kinross (66840 before split) - in addition to Kinross, adds Bridge of Earn and environs Ochil & West Perthshire (80884 before split) - minus Bridge of Earn. Not pretty, but it'll do Perth & Sidlaws (70627 before split) - also takes in the western half of Monifieth & Sidlaw ward Dundee East (81015 before split) - minus about 5000 electors from East End Dundee West & Arbroath (75648 before split)  Angus North & Kincardine (75802) Aberdeen South (74707 before split) - plus Gilcomston from Midstocket/Rosemount Aberdeen North (78748 before split) Gordon & West Aberdeenshire (74432 before split) Banff & Buchan (78945 before split) - minus a couple of thousand electors to the south of Ellon Highland Moray (71537) - unchanged Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey (71094 before split) - exactly how much of Aird & Loch Ness ward it takes will depend upon the size limit, but the change would probably be too small to justify junking the seat's terrible name Caithness, Sutherland & Ross (65239 before split) - as much of Wester Ross as possible to be included Skye, Kintyre & Western Highlands (75185 before split) - getting this down to size whilst keeping the electorate up will be the main challenge here. I think it's doable, but it may require some fairly surgical ward splits.  Dumbarton, Helensburgh & Bute (71291) |
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Post by carlton43 on Apr 11, 2021 10:45:45 GMT
EAL
How far do you think it would be from top to bottom of your proposed Skye, Kintyre and West Highlands? I have done it decades ago and it took more than a day!
And surely it exceeds the area strictures?
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Post by No Offence Alan on Apr 11, 2021 10:48:41 GMT
West Lothian, Falkirk, Stirling and Clackmannanshire as 5 seats. Those of a nervous disposition should look away now. So - Livingston, Falkirk town, Stirling all split, the last of them three ways. This is a real shame because up to this point, there's been so much to admire in the schemes put forward by No Offence Alan - especially the combination of the two Lanarkshires for 7 seats, and the consequent elimination of DCT. No matter. I see you've left yourself with the rest of Scotland = 18.08, which should be comfortably feasible for 18, so crack on.
Another stab at a 5-seat "Central Scotland". I have re-united Falkirk and (most of) Livingston. You could take about 6,000 electors from the Larbert/Stenhousemuir area into Falkirk to make the numbers work.  Sorry, I like my Stirlingshire North/South split using the Forth as a natural boundary. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Apr 11, 2021 11:34:02 GMT
EAL How far do you think it would be from top to bottom of your proposed Skye, Kintyre and West Highlands? I have done it decades ago and it took more than a day! And surely it exceeds the area strictures? With whole wards, it certainly does. My back of the envelope maths suggests that with a few ward splits (Wester Ross into Caithness & Sutherland; bits of Aird & Loch Ness into either Caithness or Inverness) it should be possible to just about ensure all three Highland constituencies are below the maximum allowable size, but it would be a tight squeeze. And yes, it's a big, expansive seat, but that's because not many people live in the Highlands. As you've previously pointed out, getting from one bit of the constituency to another isn't something most electors care about because they almost never have cause to do it. |
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Post by islington on Apr 11, 2021 11:39:11 GMT
Looking at the various plans submitted here, I've been mulling over the question of grouping in Scotland. I know not everyone sees value in this approach, which is fine because we all have our own way of working, but personally I find it a very useful technique for ensuring that we get the right number of seats and don't end up overloaded or underloaded with electors in any particular area. As a preliminary observation, I think the acreage rule means it's effective unavoidable that A&B is linked with Highland; putting Ft William in with Argyll absorbs 2591 sq km that would otherwise have to be accommodated in a Highland seat, and a further 2064 if Caol is shifted as well. And even if both wards are included, the resulting Argyll-based seat is still below 12000 sq km and does not engage the acreage rule. I'd also suggest that WDuns be added to this mix, simply because its boundary with A&B is far more crossable (Helensburgh haircut notwithstanding) that its borders with Stirling, EDuns or Glasgow, or its riverine border with Renfs. All that said, there seem to be two main grouping arrangements (each with variations). SCHEME 1 A: Aberdeen/Abs/A&B/Highland/Moray/WDuns = 736627 = 10.04 = 10 B: Angus/Dundee/Fife/P&K = 590372 = 8.04 = 8 C: Stirling = 70085 = 0.95 = 1 D: Clacks/Falkirk/WLothian = 297661 = 4.06 = 4 E: Lanarks x 2 = 511095 = 6.96 = 7 F: EDuns/ERenfs/Glasgow/Inverclyde/Renfs = 803129 = 10.94 = 11 (and divisible along the Clyde into 4.93 and 6.01) G: Ayrshire x 3 = 290225 = 3.95 = 4 H: D&G/ELothian/Scotborders = 290906 = 3.96 = 4 I: Midlothian = 71210 = 0.97 = 1 J: Edinburgh = 362301 = 4.94 = 5
SCHEME 2 A: Aberdeen/Abs/Angus/A&B/Dundee/Highland/Moray/WDuns = 934544 = 12.73 = 13 B: Clacks/Fife/P&K = 431919 = 5.89 = 6 C: Stirling = 70085 = 0.95 = 1 D: EDuns/ERenfs/Falkirk/Glasgow/Inverclyde/NLanarks/Renfs = 1184332 = 16.14 = 16 (divisible along the Clyde into 10.13 and 6.01) E: Ayrshire x 3 = 290225 = 3.95 = 4 F: D&G/SLanarks = 370615 = 5.05 = 5 G: ELothian/Edinburgh/Midlothian/ScotBorders/WLothian = 741891 = 10.11 = 10 At first glance Scheme 1 is to be preferred as giving a more equitable distribution; and getting down to specifics it works really well in northern Scotland and pretty well in the south, in particular by getting rid of DCT. So it's good at either end but - and it's a big but - it runs into trouble in the middle. You have to cross the border of P&K with either Dundee or Angus, and I may be missing something but I can't see a good way of doing this. And the problem of what to do with Clacks is even worse. Linking it across the Forth with bits of Falkirk can't be a good outcome; but avoiding this by throwing Stirling into the mix just seems to generate a mess. My crude summary of the scheme as a whole would be: excellent in the north; not bad in the south; terrible in the middle.
Scheme 2, on the other hand, it is clearly less good that Scheme 1 in Abs and at the other end of Scotland it also requires the continuation of something akin to DCT (only without the 'T'). A significant drawback is that it concentrates the below-average seats in Stirling and points north (collectively 19.57 = 20) and with the Ayrshires compelling for 3.95 = 4, the rest of Scotland is left with 31.32 = 31. This is not unmanageable but it pretty much rules out the attractive groupings from Scheme 1 in this area, all of which tend to generate seats below average size. On the other hand, it avoids car crashes. Crude summary: so-so, just about everywhere.
Well, in the end you pays your money and you makes your choice. Scheme 1 has a lot to be said for it in the north and south, if you can resolve - or at least live with - the problems it generates in the middle. But on balance, I am lining up with Scheme 2.
Edited to add: And of course, while I was typing all that, East Anglian Lefty only has to go and devise an entirely different grouping arrangement that hadn't even crossed my mind. Such is life. |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Apr 11, 2021 11:55:24 GMT
I have an 8-seat non-ward-split "solution" for Fife, P& K, Dundee and Angus.
But I don't want to start a run on pitchfork supplies by showing it.
The main problem is Monifieth & Sidlaw ward in Angus. It borders 9 other wards and, crucially, the coast.
I came up with a few "good" solutions, to find I had Carnoustie as an exclave of Dundee East.
I think a ward split to close the "Monifieth gap" is necessary.
Oh, and maybe my joining Glenrothes to the West Fife villages via Kinross isn't ideal either ...
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Post by islington on Apr 11, 2021 11:59:58 GMT
EAL How far do you think it would be from top to bottom of your proposed Skye, Kintyre and West Highlands? I have done it decades ago and it took more than a day! And surely it exceeds the area strictures? Ullapool to Mull of Kintyre?
A pleasant afternoon's drive, surely?
Stop half-way for a picnic on top of Ben Nevis.
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Post by carlton43 on Apr 11, 2021 12:05:45 GMT
EAL How far do you think it would be from top to bottom of your proposed Skye, Kintyre and West Highlands? I have done it decades ago and it took more than a day! And surely it exceeds the area strictures? Ullapool to Mull of Kintyre?
A pleasant afternoon's drive, surely?
Stop half-way for a picnic on top of Ben Nevis.
You haven't done it have you? Not the drive, nor the ascent of Nevis? |
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