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Post by minionofmidas on Nov 17, 2022 4:13:49 GMT
Opportunity missed to call it "Leftover Bits of Cheltenham and Gloucester" IMO. Isn't it Leftover Bits of Lloyds TSB now? (googles joke) nah, passed on further to Leftover Bits of TSB Bank |
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,634 
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Post by ricmk on Nov 17, 2022 10:17:41 GMT
Cheltenham and Gloucester Banks?
I will also get my coat...
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,455
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Post by iain on Nov 17, 2022 11:18:22 GMT
If you switched around a couple of Cheltenham wards you could have Up Hatherley and Down Hatherley.
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nyx
Non-Aligned
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Post by nyx on Nov 17, 2022 15:57:38 GMT
The North Cotswolds seat is a monstrosity in many regards, I take it as one of those things where one bad constituency is meant to facilitate the rest of the sub-region being OK (which I think they largely are.) I think it is going to be interesting to see how things pan out in this constituency, assuming it survives long-term. It should obviously be a pretty safe Tory notional hold but the scrap to establish who the main challenger is could be significant for future elections. If one party emerges strongly I'm not sure how safe it will stay on the basis of current trends and demographics. It'll be interesting to see which seats the current Tory MPs in the area go for given there's a knock on effect with quite a few constituencies. The main knock on effect is pretty much this, ignoring solitary wards going elsewhere: North Cotswolds gains 21k electors from Tewkesbury and 14k from Stroud Cotswolds: 36k electors to North Cotswolds; 40k electors to South Cotswolds Wiltshire North: 33k electors to South Cotswolds; 32k electors to Chippenham Chippenham: 36k electors to Chippenham; 37k electors to Melksham and Devizes Devizes: 27k electors to Melksham and Devizes; 44k electors to East Wiltshire East Wiltshire gains 16k electors from Salisbury and 14k from Swindon South So ultimately you've got a string of four constituencies becoming five, while borrowing wards from a few other constituencies at either end. Hard to predict which way any of the MPs would go. I'm guessing Michelle Donelan, as someone in cabinet, might be more inclined to go for Melksham and Devizes than for Chippenham, given that of the two, the new Chippenham seat looks like it's probably the one more prone to an LD gain. Which I guess would leave James Gray from Wiltshire North going for South Cotswolds as the safer seat, and Geoffrey Clifton-Brown in North Cotswolds, with Chippenham being open? Very speculative though. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Nov 17, 2022 16:22:07 GMT
Joking aside, Cheltenham South & Gloucester North would be the most likely although something like Brockworth or Brockworth & churchdown might work
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ilerda
Conservative
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Post by ilerda on Nov 17, 2022 17:04:52 GMT
Joking aside, Cheltenham South & Gloucester North would be the most likely although something like Brockworth or Brockworth & churchdown might work You could always try to merge the names of the two main component boroughs and call it Chester? |
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Post by andrewp on Nov 17, 2022 17:54:06 GMT
The North Cotswolds seat is a monstrosity in many regards, I take it as one of those things where one bad constituency is meant to facilitate the rest of the sub-region being OK (which I think they largely are.) I think it is going to be interesting to see how things pan out in this constituency, assuming it survives long-term. It should obviously be a pretty safe Tory notional hold but the scrap to establish who the main challenger is could be significant for future elections. If one party emerges strongly I'm not sure how safe it will stay on the basis of current trends and demographics. It'll be interesting to see which seats the current Tory MPs in the area go for given there's a knock on effect with quite a few constituencies. The main knock on effect is pretty much this, ignoring solitary wards going elsewhere: North Cotswolds gains 21k electors from Tewkesbury and 14k from Stroud Cotswolds: 36k electors to North Cotswolds; 40k electors to South Cotswolds Wiltshire North: 33k electors to South Cotswolds; 32k electors to Chippenham Chippenham: 36k electors to Chippenham; 37k electors to Melksham and Devizes Devizes: 27k electors to Melksham and Devizes; 44k electors to East Wiltshire East Wiltshire gains 16k electors from Salisbury and 14k from Swindon South So ultimately you've got a string of four constituencies becoming five, while borrowing wards from a few other constituencies at either end. Hard to predict which way any of the MPs would go. I'm guessing Michelle Donelan, as someone in cabinet, might be more inclined to go for Melksham and Devizes than for Chippenham, given that of the two, the new Chippenham seat looks like it's probably the one more prone to an LD gain. Which I guess would leave James Gray from Wiltshire North going for South Cotswolds as the safer seat, and Geoffrey Clifton-Brown in North Cotswolds, with Chippenham being open? Very speculative though. You’d think Gray ( 69 at next election) and Clifton-Brown (71) are both retirement candidates. But In cases like that where there is an ideal fit if 3 or 4MPs all agree to move one way, does central office intervene and suggest/ order which way everyone should move or is it left to them? I wonder the same thing in North Somerset where Chris Skidmore only has a seat if Jacob Rees Mogg moves one way. |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Nov 17, 2022 18:26:05 GMT
The North Cotswolds seat is a monstrosity in many regards, I take it as one of those things where one bad constituency is meant to facilitate the rest of the sub-region being OK (which I think they largely are.) I think it is going to be interesting to see how things pan out in this constituency, assuming it survives long-term. It should obviously be a pretty safe Tory notional hold but the scrap to establish who the main challenger is could be significant for future elections. If one party emerges strongly I'm not sure how safe it will stay on the basis of current trends and demographics. It'll be interesting to see which seats the current Tory MPs in the area go for given there's a knock on effect with quite a few constituencies. The main knock on effect is pretty much this, ignoring solitary wards going elsewhere: North Cotswolds gains 21k electors from Tewkesbury and 14k from Stroud Cotswolds: 36k electors to North Cotswolds; 40k electors to South Cotswolds Wiltshire North: 33k electors to South Cotswolds; 32k electors to Chippenham Chippenham: 36k electors to Chippenham; 37k electors to Melksham and Devizes Devizes: 27k electors to Melksham and Devizes; 44k electors to East Wiltshire East Wiltshire gains 16k electors from Salisbury and 14k from Swindon South So ultimately you've got a string of four constituencies becoming five, while borrowing wards from a few other constituencies at either end. Hard to predict which way any of the MPs would go. I'm guessing Michelle Donelan, as someone in cabinet, might be more inclined to go for Melksham and Devizes than for Chippenham, given that of the two, the new Chippenham seat looks like it's probably the one more prone to an LD gain. Which I guess would leave James Gray from Wiltshire North going for South Cotswolds as the safer seat, and Geoffrey Clifton-Brown in North Cotswolds, with Chippenham being open? Very speculative though. I think rumour has it that Clifton-Browne intends to retire, but can't recall the source or whether its credible. He will be 70 next year and if he stood again it would have to be for essentially a new seat with quite a few new electors to pitch to, so I wouldn't be that surprised if he can't be bothered. Plus he owns half of East Anglia anyway. |
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Post by minionofmidas on Nov 28, 2022 10:27:32 GMT
I notice they split the town of Calne. The boundary omission states that the ward of Calne South is "very rural in nature, largely separate from the town of Calne" but this is manifestly nonsense:  There are no obvious whole ward fixes - nothing else can be moved from Chippenham to M&D instead and while the ward wd fit into Chippenham anyways, electorates in south Wiltshire are too small for a knock-on transfer. There are no polling district data for Wiltshire in the commission excel file, but if the Calne town portion has no more than 2099 electors out of a ward total of 3533 this seems like an excellent contender for another split ward and worth submitting. Edit: electorate in may 21 was 2604, which goes to show just how wrong the report is but also that the issue can't be fixed this easily. You'd need a second ward split somewhere. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 28, 2022 10:49:16 GMT
The whole set of proposals involving Wiltshire are a pathetic joke. I wouldn't bother tinkering just with a small part of Calne
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Post by minionofmidas on Nov 28, 2022 11:01:59 GMT
The whole set of proposals involving Wiltshire are a pathetic joke. I wouldn't bother tinkering just with a small part of Calne Gloucestershire is a horrible mess that's going to get worse with every review unless precedent is pissed on and then burned at stake (and not coming out too great if you do), but not knowing the place at all I can't see what else is wrong with Wiltshire. Other than "too many people from Cirencester complained about the reasonable name of their constituency" of course. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 28, 2022 11:06:37 GMT
The whole set of proposals involving Wiltshire are a pathetic joke. I wouldn't bother tinkering just with a small part of Calne Gloucestershire is a horrible mess that's going to get worse with every review unless precedent is pissed on and then burned at stake (and not coming out too great if you do), but not knowing the place at all I can't see what else is wrong with Wiltshire. Other than "too many people from Cirencester complained about the reasonable name of their constituency" of course. There was no need to cross the boundary between Wiltshire and Gloucestershire whatsoever. Several members of this forum submitted decent plans which avoided doing that (and also the consequent crossing of the Gloucestershire/Somerset boundary). My own proposals kept all the Wiltishire seats virtually unchanged with just a couple of ward splits. The Cotswold North and Cotswold South formulation is utterly fuckwitted but isn't even the worst part of the proposals for this area. |
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Post by islington on Nov 28, 2022 11:07:26 GMT
I don't think it's worth a ward split, even if it would work. I can't see an easy solution involving just the Melksham and Chippenham seats. The seats are on the small side so there's limited room for manoeuvre.
If you throw S Cotswold in as well, this is possible and not too bad:
Even if the revised scheme is adopted, I want the 'Melksham & Devizes' seat renamed simply 'Devizes'. There has been a constituency of this name, without a break, since 1295. Such hallowed tradition should not lightly be cast aside.
Edited to add: Sorry, I failed to shade in the Kingswood ward of Stroud but I meant that to remain in S Cotsworld. The numbers are: S Cotswold 73370, Chippenham 72078, Devizes 70888.
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Post by islington on Nov 28, 2022 11:09:35 GMT
The whole set of proposals involving Wiltshire are a pathetic joke. I wouldn't bother tinkering just with a small part of Calne Gloucestershire is a horrible mess that's going to get worse with every review unless precedent is pissed on and then burned at stake (and not coming out too great if you do), but not knowing the place at all I can't see what else is wrong with Wiltshire. Other than "too many people from Cirencester complained about the reasonable name of their constituency" of course. I presume they want it called 'Cirencester' in which case I support them, if only because of all the fun we'll have arguing about how it's pronounced. |
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Post by minionofmidas on Nov 28, 2022 11:33:43 GMT
Gloucestershire is a horrible mess that's going to get worse with every review unless precedent is pissed on and then burned at stake (and not coming out too great if you do), but not knowing the place at all I can't see what else is wrong with Wiltshire. Other than "too many people from Cirencester complained about the reasonable name of their constituency" of course. I presume they want it called 'Cirencester' in which case I support them, if only because of all the fun we'll have arguing about how it's pronounced. No, they wanted to keep the Cotswolds name despite being drawn out of the seat, and got what they wanted. I presume it's time for a letter writing campaign from the Wiltshire end next. |
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Post by minionofmidas on Nov 28, 2022 11:43:02 GMT
I don't think it's worth a ward split, even if it would work. That's more to do with your views on ward splits though. Kinda ignores the evidence they received and chose to highlight in the report, though. (Calne should be with Chippenham, Bradford should be with Melksham). [Q On the one hand my aesthetic preferences are similar. I hate it when they rename essentially unchanged seats (W Derbyshire last review comes to mind, a name that's described the area well since 1885), even if the old name was perhaps not too appropriate (they're renaming Sedgefield and Ludlow now  ). Otoh that's not even the successor seat of Devizes. Maybe we could keep the name for E Wiltshire even though the town isn't in it anymore? [/div][/quote] Kotzworld? |
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Post by bjornhattan on Nov 28, 2022 11:43:40 GMT
I don't think it's worth a ward split, even if it would work. I can't see an easy solution involving just the Melksham and Chippenham seats. The seats are on the small side so there's limited room for manoeuvre.
If you throw S Cotswold in as well, this is possible and not too bad:
Even if the revised scheme is adopted, I want the 'Melksham & Devizes' seat renamed simply 'Devizes'. There has been a constituency of this name, without a break, since 1295. Such hallowed tradition should not lightly be cast aside.
The Devizes seat you've drawn is superb - covering the towns of Calne, Devizes, and Melksham and their rural hinterlands very well. The biggest downside is Wootton Bassett ends up rather isolated. Its local ties are to Swindon, Calne, and to a lesser extent Malmesbury; it doesn't really look north to places like Cirencester. It does look like it's out on a limb in the commission’s proposals but there are good links between RWB and Calne and then on to Chippenham. I'm ambivalent about the name change - the change from the current Devizes seat is so radical that you might want to signal that by changing the name - essentially the new East Wiltshire seat is the old Devizes seat just without Devizes itself. Having said that, they've not changed Chippenham's name despite the changes there being almost as radical, and as you point out Devizes is a wonderfully historic name. As an aside, I'm surprised the Lib Dems didn't suggest that arrangement. That Chippenham is just about the best Lib Dem seat you could draw in that corner of Wiltshire, combining Chippenham itself with Malmesbury, Corsham, and Bradford! |
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Post by minionofmidas on Nov 28, 2022 11:52:09 GMT
I don't think it's worth a ward split, even if it would work. I can't see an easy solution involving just the Melksham and Chippenham seats. The seats are on the small side so there's limited room for manoeuvre.
If you throw S Cotswold in as well, this is possible and not too bad:
Even if the revised scheme is adopted, I want the 'Melksham & Devizes' seat renamed simply 'Devizes'. There has been a constituency of this name, without a break, since 1295. Such hallowed tradition should not lightly be cast aside.
The Devizes seat you've drawn is superb - covering the towns of Calne, Devizes, and Melksham and their rural hinterlands very well. The biggest downside is Wootton Bassett ends up rather isolated. Its local ties are to Swindon, Calne, and to a lesser extent Malmesbury; it doesn't really look north to places like Cirencester. It does look like it's out on a limb in the commission’s proposals but there are good links between RWB and Calne and then on to Chippenham. I'm ambivalent about the name change - the change from the current Devizes seat is so radical that you might want to signal that by changing the name - essentially the new East Wiltshire seat is the old Devizes seat just without Devizes itself. Having said that, they've not changed Chippenham's name despite the changes there being almost as radical, and as you point out Devizes is a wonderfully historic name. As an aside, I'm surprised the Lib Dems didn't suggest that arrangement. That Chippenham is just about the best Lib Dem seat you could draw in that corner of Wiltshire, combining Chippenham itself with Malmesbury, Corsham, and Bradford! They didn't? They basically did except for Malmesbury. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Nov 28, 2022 12:38:46 GMT
Gloucestershire is a horrible mess that's going to get worse with every review unless precedent is pissed on and then burned at stake (and not coming out too great if you do), but not knowing the place at all I can't see what else is wrong with Wiltshire. Other than "too many people from Cirencester complained about the reasonable name of their constituency" of course. I presume they want it called 'Cirencester' in which case I support them , if only because of all the fun we'll have arguing about how it's pronounced.Homophonous with "Siren". Nobody bothers with the other bit |
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Post by islington on Nov 28, 2022 12:45:25 GMT
I presume they want it called 'Cirencester' in which case I support them , if only because of all the fun we'll have arguing about how it's pronounced.Homophonous with "Siren". Nobody bothers with the other bit I'm a 'Sissiter' man myself, but this is my whole point. We miss out on all this with boring old 'S Cotswold'.
There was a young lady of Cirencester Whose gentleman friend came to virencester ...
Edited to add: Hope you're feeling better, BTW.
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). Otoh that's not even the successor seat of Devizes. Maybe we could keep the name for E Wiltshire even though the town isn't in it anymore? 