J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,840 
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Post by J.G.Harston on Jan 5, 2021 13:54:40 GMT
2023 Review - South West
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,915
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Post by YL on Jan 5, 2021 15:51:01 GMT
58 seats
Quotas by county and unitary:
Cornwall 5.95
Scilly 0.02
Devon (CC area) 8.52
Plymouth 2.60
Torbay 1.40
(Devon total 12.53)
Dorset (unitary) 4.08
BCP 3.92
Somerset (CC area) 5.80
North Somerset 2.24
BANES 1.93
Bristol 4.57
Gloucestershire (CC area) 6.59
South Glos 2.90
Wiltshire 5.15
Swindon 2.12
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,915
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Post by YL on Jan 5, 2021 15:53:02 GMT
A tentative allocation might be
Cornwall (and Scilly) 6
Devon 13
Dorset (unitary) 4
BCP 4
Somerset CC and North Somerset 8
BANES 2
Bristol, South Glos, Glos CC 14
Wiltshire (inc Swindon) 7
The Devon and Wiltshire groups are a bit close to the lower and upper limits respectively for comfort, but I think would be worth trying.
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Foggy
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Yn Ennill Yma
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Post by Foggy on Jan 5, 2021 22:03:26 GMT
A tentative allocation might be Cornwall (and Scilly) 6 Devon 13 Dorset (unitary) 4 BCP 4 Somerset CC and North Somerset 8 BANES 2 Bristol, South Glos, Glos CC 14 Wiltshire (inc Swindon) 7 The Devon and Wiltshire groups are a bit close to the lower and upper limits respectively for comfort, but I think would be worth trying. If Wiltshire still had districts with relatively small wards, then it wouldn't be much of a problem. As it stands, the size of the unitary divisions both there and in Dorset might make things a bit tricky. Still, at least the threat of Devonwall has subsided. Looks like there might not be a cross-county seat covering Shaftesbury and Warminster either, subject to the issue I mentioned above. If BCP and the Dorset UA are considered separately, then Poole North will shed Mid Dorset, but conversely Christchurch will lose its part of East Dorset. Overall, 8 seats for that area ultimately means net no change. Elsewhere it's a straightforward increase of one constituency each for Somerset, Devon and the Bristol area. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 5, 2021 22:12:04 GMT
Gloucestershire is going to be a nightmare whatever they do with it. I just hope they don't try and resurrect "Dursley, Thornbury & Yate"
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Jan 5, 2021 22:20:32 GMT
A tentative allocation might be Cornwall (and Scilly) 6 Devon 13 Dorset (unitary) 4 BCP 4 Somerset CC and North Somerset 8 BANES 2 Bristol, South Glos, Glos CC 14 Wiltshire (inc Swindon) 7 The Devon and Wiltshire groups are a bit close to the lower and upper limits respectively for comfort, but I think would be worth trying. If Wiltshire still had districts with relatively small wards, then it wouldn't be much of a problem. As it stands, the size of the unitary divisions both there and in Dorset might make things a bit tricky. Still, at least the threat of Devonwall has subsided. Looks like there might not be a cross-county seat covering Shaftesbury and Warminster either, subject to the issue I mentioned above. If BCP and the Dorset UA are considered separately, then Poole North will shed Mid Dorset, but conversely Christchurch will lose its part of East Dorset. Overall, 8 seats for that area ultimately means net no change. Elsewhere it's a straightforward increase of one constituency each for Somerset, Devon and the Bristol area. Presumably there’s going to be a new seat in Mid Somerset, possibly around Glastonbury and Street and Langport? Taunton and Bridgwater are a bit awkward as I think you have to draw the boundaries quite tight around Taunton, which makes Bridgwater a bit difficult. |
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Post by swindonlad on Jan 6, 2021 7:42:54 GMT
I can see a few cross boundary constituencies, to get the numbers to work
Need to move 1 ward from Swindon into Wiltshire; can combine the split wards into South Swindon & then move Wroughton into Wiltshire
Then move 2 wards from Wiltshire into Somerset & BANES
Then 3 rural wards around Exmoor into Devon
I can see it not looking pretty or being popular (especially as this would move a cabinet member out of their constituency & make it more marginal)
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Jan 6, 2021 8:46:29 GMT
I can see a few cross boundary constituencies, to get the numbers to work Need to move 1 ward from Swindon into Wiltshire; can combine the split wards into South Swindon & then move Wroughton into Wiltshire Then move 2 wards from Wiltshire into Somerset & BANES Then 3 rural wards around Exmoor into Devon I can see it not looking pretty or being popular (especially as this would move a cabinet member out of their constituency & make it more marginal) It would be better mediating any Somerset/Devon crossing through Dorset – sort of a Yeovil and Dorset hinterland constituency, then put Lyme into Devon. The Somerset/Devon boundary is in a sensible place. |
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Post by swindonlad on Jan 6, 2021 9:02:49 GMT
I can see a few cross boundary constituencies, to get the numbers to work Need to move 1 ward from Swindon into Wiltshire; can combine the split wards into South Swindon & then move Wroughton into Wiltshire Then move 2 wards from Wiltshire into Somerset & BANES Then 3 rural wards around Exmoor into Devon I can see it not looking pretty or being popular (especially as this would move a cabinet member out of their constituency & make it more marginal) It would be better mediating any Somerset/Devon crossing through Dorset – sort of a Yeovil and Dorset hinterland constituency, then put Lyme into Devon. The Somerset/Devon boundary is in a sensible place. Dorset and BCP are amongst the very few principle authorities that work and are located on the boundary of the region, so I would leave well alone. Your proposal would increase the number of cross boundary constituencies |
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Jan 6, 2021 9:08:40 GMT
It would be better mediating any Somerset/Devon crossing through Dorset – sort of a Yeovil and Dorset hinterland constituency, then put Lyme into Devon. The Somerset/Devon boundary is in a sensible place. Dorset and BCP are amongst the very few principle authorities that work and are located on the boundary of the region, so I would leave well alone. Your proposal would increase the number of cross boundary constituencies If you want to limit the number of cross-boundaries, then leave Somerset out of it completely and only use Dorset to mediate Wiltshire and Devon's problems – Somerset's numbers work without needing anything from Wiltshire, and crossing the Somerset/Devon boundary is just very, very bad. |
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,453
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Post by iain on Jan 6, 2021 12:46:11 GMT
A first go at Gloucestershire (and Bristol, though I'm not super happy with my boundaries there):
Forest of Dean - unchanged
Tewkesbury - loses Longlevens, Winchcombe and Isbourne; gains Up Hatherley and Benhall & the Reddings
Gloucester - gains Longlevens, loses both Quedgeley wards plus Kingsway
Cheltenham - loses Up Hatherley and Benhall & the Reddings
Cotswold - gains Winchcombe and Isbourne; loses the three Tetbury wards, Grumbolds Ash and the parts of Stroud District
Stroud - gains the 3 wards from Gloucester and Minchinhampton; loses Nailsworth, Coaley & Uley, Berkeley Vale, Dursley, Cam East and Cam West
Dursley & Yate - the leftover parts of Stroud and Cotswold Districts, plus Charfield, Chipping Sodbury, Dodington, Yate North and Yate Central
Thornbury & Bradley Stoke - Thornbury, Severn Vale, Frampton Cotterell, Pilning, Winterbourne, Charlton & Cribbs, Patchway, Bradley Stoke x2, Stoke Gifford
Kingswood - gains Boyd Valley
Bristol North West - loses Stoke Bishop, gains Filton
Bristol West - loses Ashley, Lawrence Hill, Easton; gains Stoke Bishop
Bristol East - loses Brislington x2, Stockwood; gains Stoke Park & Cheswick, Frenchay & Downend, Staple Hill & Mangotsfield
Bristol South - loses Knowle
Bristol South East - Ashley, Brislington East, Brislington West, Easton, Knowle, Lawrence Hill, Stockwood
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 6, 2021 12:50:22 GMT
A first go at Gloucestershire (and Bristol, though I'm not super happy with my boundaries there): Forest of Dean - unchanged Tewkesbury - loses Longlevens, Winchcombe and Isbourne; gains Up Hatherley and Benhall & the Reddings Gloucester - gains Longlevens, loses both Quedgeley wards plus Kingsway Cheltenham - loses Up Hatherley and Benhall & the Reddings Cotswold - gains Winchcombe and Isbourne; loses the three Tetbury wards, Grumbolds Ash and the parts of Stroud District Stroud - gains the 3 wards from Gloucester and Minchinhampton; loses Nailsworth, Coaley & Uley, Berkeley Vale, Dursley, Cam East and Cam West Dursley & Yate - the leftover parts of Stroud and Cotswold Districts, plus Charfield, Chipping Sodbury, Dodington, Yate North and Yate Central Thornbury & Bradley Stoke - Thornbury, Severn Vale, Frampton Cotterell, Pilning, Winterbourne, Charlton & Cribbs, Patchway, Bradley Stoke x2, Stoke Gifford Kingswood - gains Boyd Valley Bristol North West - loses Stoke Bishop, gains Filton Bristol West - loses Ashley, Lawrence Hill, Easton; gains Stoke Bishop Bristol East - loses Brislington x2, Stockwood; gains Stoke Park & Cheswick, Frenchay & Downend, Staple Hill & Mangotsfield Bristol South - loses Knowle Bristol South East - Ashley, Brislington East, Brislington West, Easton, Knowle, Lawrence Hill, Stockwood Sounds good although as you say Bristol SE sounds a bit messy. Could do with seeing a map to visualise it |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 6, 2021 13:22:27 GMT
The real Bristol South-East which existed up to 1983 was a bit messy.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jan 6, 2021 13:23:55 GMT
A first go at Gloucestershire (and Bristol, though I'm not super happy with my boundaries there): Forest of Dean - unchanged Tewkesbury - loses Longlevens, Winchcombe and Isbourne; gains Up Hatherley and Benhall & the Reddings Gloucester - gains Longlevens, loses both Quedgeley wards plus Kingsway Cheltenham - loses Up Hatherley and Benhall & the Reddings Cotswold - gains Winchcombe and Isbourne; loses the three Tetbury wards, Grumbolds Ash and the parts of Stroud District Stroud - gains the 3 wards from Gloucester and Minchinhampton; loses Nailsworth, Coaley & Uley, Berkeley Vale, Dursley, Cam East and Cam West
Dursley & Yate - the leftover parts of Stroud and Cotswold Districts, plus Charfield, Chipping Sodbury, Dodington, Yate North and Yate CentralThornbury & Bradley Stoke - Thornbury, Severn Vale, Frampton Cotterell, Pilning, Winterbourne, Charlton & Cribbs, Patchway, Bradley Stoke x2, Stoke Gifford Kingswood - gains Boyd Valley Bristol North West - loses Stoke Bishop, gains Filton Bristol West - loses Ashley, Lawrence Hill, Easton; gains Stoke Bishop Bristol East - loses Brislington x2, Stockwood; gains Stoke Park & Cheswick, Frenchay & Downend, Staple Hill & Mangotsfield Bristol South - loses Knowle Bristol South East - Ashley, Brislington East, Brislington West, Easton, Knowle, Lawrence Hill, Stockwood No. |
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,453
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Post by iain on Jan 6, 2021 13:24:41 GMT
A first go at Gloucestershire (and Bristol, though I'm not super happy with my boundaries there): Forest of Dean - unchanged Tewkesbury - loses Longlevens, Winchcombe and Isbourne; gains Up Hatherley and Benhall & the Reddings Gloucester - gains Longlevens, loses both Quedgeley wards plus Kingsway Cheltenham - loses Up Hatherley and Benhall & the Reddings Cotswold - gains Winchcombe and Isbourne; loses the three Tetbury wards, Grumbolds Ash and the parts of Stroud District Stroud - gains the 3 wards from Gloucester and Minchinhampton; loses Nailsworth, Coaley & Uley, Berkeley Vale, Dursley, Cam East and Cam West
Dursley & Yate - the leftover parts of Stroud and Cotswold Districts, plus Charfield, Chipping Sodbury, Dodington, Yate North and Yate CentralThornbury & Bradley Stoke - Thornbury, Severn Vale, Frampton Cotterell, Pilning, Winterbourne, Charlton & Cribbs, Patchway, Bradley Stoke x2, Stoke Gifford Kingswood - gains Boyd Valley Bristol North West - loses Stoke Bishop, gains Filton Bristol West - loses Ashley, Lawrence Hill, Easton; gains Stoke Bishop Bristol East - loses Brislington x2, Stockwood; gains Stoke Park & Cheswick, Frenchay & Downend, Staple Hill & Mangotsfield Bristol South - loses Knowle Bristol South East - Ashley, Brislington East, Brislington West, Easton, Knowle, Lawrence Hill, Stockwood No. It’s not amazing but I don’t see any better alternatives. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 6, 2021 13:26:37 GMT
It’s not amazing but I don’t see any better alternatives. Merging Yate with the southern half of the Cotswolds? It might not look neat but Ciren-Tetbury-Wotton-Yate is more coherent than Nailsworth-Dursley-Yate |
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,453
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Post by iain on Jan 6, 2021 14:00:14 GMT
It’s not amazing but I don’t see any better alternatives. Merging Yate with the southern half of the Cotswolds? It might not look neat but Ciren-Tetbury-Wotton-Yate is more coherent than Nailsworth-Dursley-Yate I would probably rather stick with my original plan, but you could do: The Yate seat keeps Wotton and Kingswood from Stroud and then stretches to take in Cirencester and South Cerney. The current Stroud would have to gain Minchinhampton while losing Bisley, Painswick and Chalford. Gloucester would lose Elmbridge but keep Quedgeley. Tewkesbury would gain Elmbridge and have to lose all of Bishops Cleeve (which might mean some rejigging of which wards are taken from Cheltenham, but doesn’t make any difference to the numbers). You’d then end up with a weird Cotswold seat excluding Cirencester and stretching from Bishops Cleeve to Chalford. Edit: in fact the Cotswold seat would be a bit big, so Yate etc. would also need to take The Ampneys and Hampton |
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Post by greenhert on Jan 6, 2021 16:44:40 GMT
A first go at Gloucestershire (and Bristol, though I'm not super happy with my boundaries there): Forest of Dean - unchanged Tewkesbury - loses Longlevens, Winchcombe and Isbourne; gains Up Hatherley and Benhall & the Reddings Gloucester - gains Longlevens, loses both Quedgeley wards plus Kingsway Cheltenham - loses Up Hatherley and Benhall & the Reddings Cotswold - gains Winchcombe and Isbourne; loses the three Tetbury wards, Grumbolds Ash and the parts of Stroud District Stroud - gains the 3 wards from Gloucester and Minchinhampton; loses Nailsworth, Coaley & Uley, Berkeley Vale, Dursley, Cam East and Cam West Dursley & Yate - the leftover parts of Stroud and Cotswold Districts, plus Charfield, Chipping Sodbury, Dodington, Yate North and Yate Central Thornbury & Bradley Stoke - Thornbury, Severn Vale, Frampton Cotterell, Pilning, Winterbourne, Charlton & Cribbs, Patchway, Bradley Stoke x2, Stoke Gifford Kingswood - gains Boyd Valley Bristol North West - loses Stoke Bishop, gains Filton Bristol West - loses Ashley, Lawrence Hill, Easton; gains Stoke Bishop Bristol East - loses Brislington x2, Stockwood; gains Stoke Park & Cheswick, Frenchay & Downend, Staple Hill & Mangotsfield Bristol South - loses Knowle Bristol South East - Ashley, Brislington East, Brislington West, Easton, Knowle, Lawrence Hill, Stockwood Certainly an interesting plan; it is worth noting that only since 1983 has the area in the Ashley ward been in Bristol West, and combined with the addition of Stoke Bishop the seat can genuinely be called Bristol West (as opposed to Bristol Central). Your Bristol East seat is really Bristol North East; in fact Mangotsfield was in the 1955-74 boundaries of Bristol North East. The Thornbury & Bradley Stoke plan sounds like gerrymandering to me, though, given how marginal Filton & Bradley Stoke still is. Also, Thornbury should not be in South Gloucestershire anyway. Is there no way to keep a Filton & Bradley Stoke seat? (I accept the separation of Thornbury & Yate as inevitable at this point) The 3 wards in Gloucester you are presumably referring to are: Quedgeley Fieldcourt, Quedgeley Severn Vale, and Kingsway. |
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Jan 6, 2021 17:01:17 GMT
A first go at Gloucestershire (and Bristol, though I'm not super happy with my boundaries there): Forest of Dean - unchanged Tewkesbury - loses Longlevens, Winchcombe and Isbourne; gains Up Hatherley and Benhall & the Reddings Gloucester - gains Longlevens, loses both Quedgeley wards plus Kingsway Cheltenham - loses Up Hatherley and Benhall & the Reddings Cotswold - gains Winchcombe and Isbourne; loses the three Tetbury wards, Grumbolds Ash and the parts of Stroud District Stroud - gains the 3 wards from Gloucester and Minchinhampton; loses Nailsworth, Coaley & Uley, Berkeley Vale, Dursley, Cam East and Cam West Dursley & Yate - the leftover parts of Stroud and Cotswold Districts, plus Charfield, Chipping Sodbury, Dodington, Yate North and Yate Central Thornbury & Bradley Stoke - Thornbury, Severn Vale, Frampton Cotterell, Pilning, Winterbourne, Charlton & Cribbs, Patchway, Bradley Stoke x2, Stoke Gifford Kingswood - gains Boyd Valley Bristol North West - loses Stoke Bishop, gains Filton Bristol West - loses Ashley, Lawrence Hill, Easton; gains Stoke Bishop Bristol East - loses Brislington x2, Stockwood; gains Stoke Park & Cheswick, Frenchay & Downend, Staple Hill & Mangotsfield Bristol South - loses Knowle Bristol South East - Ashley, Brislington East, Brislington West, Easton, Knowle, Lawrence Hill, Stockwood Certainly an interesting plan; it is worth noting that only since 1983 has the area in the Ashley ward been in Bristol West, and combined with the addition of Stoke Bishop the seat can genuinely be called Bristol West (as opposed to Bristol Central). Your Bristol East seat is really Bristol North East; in fact Mangotsfield was in the 1955-74 boundaries of Bristol North East. The Thornbury & Bradley Stoke plan sounds like gerrymandering to me, though, given how marginal Filton & Bradley Stoke still is. Also, Thornbury should not be in South Gloucestershire anyway. Is there no way to keep a Filton & Bradley Stoke seat? (I accept the separation of Thornbury & Yate as inevitable at this point) The 3 wards in Gloucester you are presumably referring to are: Quedgeley Fieldcourt, Quedgeley Severn Vale, and Kingsway. Bristol growth means it's going from 4 seats to 4.6 seats, so it needs to had some outside parts to reach 5, and Filton is an obvious choice. |
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YL
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Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
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Post by YL on Jan 6, 2021 17:13:40 GMT
At the moment I have (unless I have a spreadsheet mistake...) Bristol North West (76,783) loses Lockleaze, gains Bishopston & Ashley Down Bristol West (70,227) loses Bishopston & Ashley Down, Easton, Lawrence Hill. Still a crap name but better than it is now. Bristol South (74,696) loses Knowle Bristol East (perhaps South East) (75,936) gains Knowle, Easton, Lawrence Hill; loses Hillfields, Eastville, Frome Vale Bristol Kingswood (69,793) Lockleaze, Hillfields, Eastville, Frome Vale; Kingswood, New Cheltenham, Staple Hill & Mangotsfield, Woodstock Filton & Sadly Broke (73,598) gains Emersons Green; loses Staple Hill & Mangotsfield (part), Pilning & Severn Beach Yate & Hanham (71,317) Yate x 2, Chipping Sodbury, Dodington, Boyd Valley, Bitton & Oldland Common, Parkwell & Warmley, Longwell Green, Hanham Thornbury, Dursley & Tetbury (75,861) In South Glos Frampton Cotterell, Pilning & Severn Beach, Severn Vale, Thornbury, Charfield; the same Cotswold wards as iain has; in Stroud district all the Cam and Dursley wards, Berkeley Vale, Severn, Wooton under Edge, Kingswood, Coaley & Uley. Sorry @europeanlefty Stroud (76,818) the rest of Stroud district plus the two Quedgeley wards and Kingsway in Gloucester (nb retains Nailsworth) The Cotswolds (72,223), Gloucester (76,469) and Forest of Dean (71,510) as iain has them Cheltenham (75,488) the borough except for Benhall & the Reddings, Up Hatherley, Warden Hill Tewkesbury (71,324) as iain except that its Cheltenham component is the three wards named above |
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