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Post by minionofmidas on Jan 6, 2021 17:48:40 GMT
You can avoid the massive rounding constraints in Devon and Wiltshire and hurting the feelings of Stroud area leftists by pairing Gloucestershire with Wiltshire ot1h and Bristol, Somerset and Devon on the other.
No, I don't think that's likely to be preferrable, like, at all. But it is a possibility.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 6, 2021 18:11:06 GMT
A first go at Gloucestershire (and Bristol, though I'm not super happy with my boundaries there): Forest of Dean - unchanged Tewkesbury - loses Longlevens, Winchcombe and Isbourne; gains Up Hatherley and Benhall & the Reddings Gloucester - gains Longlevens, loses both Quedgeley wards plus Kingsway Cheltenham - loses Up Hatherley and Benhall & the Reddings Cotswold - gains Winchcombe and Isbourne; loses the three Tetbury wards, Grumbolds Ash and the parts of Stroud District Stroud - gains the 3 wards from Gloucester and Minchinhampton; loses Nailsworth, Coaley & Uley, Berkeley Vale, Dursley, Cam East and Cam West Dursley & Yate - the leftover parts of Stroud and Cotswold Districts, plus Charfield, Chipping Sodbury, Dodington, Yate North and Yate Central Thornbury & Bradley Stoke - Thornbury, Severn Vale, Frampton Cotterell, Pilning, Winterbourne, Charlton & Cribbs, Patchway, Bradley Stoke x2, Stoke Gifford Kingswood - gains Boyd Valley Bristol North West - loses Stoke Bishop, gains Filton Bristol West - loses Ashley, Lawrence Hill, Easton; gains Stoke Bishop Bristol East - loses Brislington x2, Stockwood; gains Stoke Park & Cheswick, Frenchay & Downend, Staple Hill & Mangotsfield Bristol South - loses Knowle Bristol South East - Ashley, Brislington East, Brislington West, Easton, Knowle, Lawrence Hill, Stockwood I took the liberty of mapping this   Looks very reasonable to me - I wouldn't change anything in the seats wholly or partly in the Glos CC area. Bristol SE doesn't look as bad as it sounded (althoguh it is a bit weird for St Paul's to be in a seat called that). Can't see EL's objection really - true the Dursley/Cam area looks to link better with Thornbury than with Yate but so too does Bradley Stoke. I think the objection is him not being in a winnable Labour seat which is understandable from his pov but I don't see any reason to pander to that. It seems to me inescabable that Cam and Dursley have to go into a 'cross-county' seat with South Gloucestershire and can't remain linked with Stroud. I shall away and have a play with the Bristol area. As I say I wouldn't change anything in Gloucestershire (except maybe choose a different pair of Cheltenham wards to remove) |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 6, 2021 19:33:41 GMT
Here's an alternative plan for the Bristol area. Not sure if its any improvement beyond tidying up the compass points (it's not even the effective gerrymander it might have been in the past) Bristol Central and Bristol West are very close to the lower and upper limits (69,919 and 77,028 respectively)  |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,915
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Post by YL on Jan 6, 2021 22:00:36 GMT
Here's my Bristol/Gloucestershire mapped.   1. Forest of Dean 2. Tewkesbury 3. Cheltenham 4. Gloucester 5. The Cotswolds 6. Stroud 7. Thornbury, Dursley & Tetbury 8. Bristol Kingswood 9. Filton & Bradley Stoke 10. Yate & Hanham 11. Bristol North West 12. Bristol West 13. Bristol East 14. Bristol South |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,915
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Post by YL on Jan 7, 2021 18:08:38 GMT
13 seats for Devon. I spent far too much time on this.  1. Honiton (70,285). The numbers in Exeter and East Devon allow three small seats, which is helpful. 2. Tiverton (70,310). However, annoyingly Mid Devon and North Devon combined are 10 electors short for two seats. So as well as three rural wards in the south of North Devon, this grabs Winkleigh ward from Torridge. 3. Exeter (71,713) (number not on map). Loses another ward; it can be either Priory or Pinhoe. 4. Exmouth & Exeter East (70,055). Here's the rest of Exeter and East Devon. 5. North Devon (70,895). If crossing the county boundary it could remain coterminous with the district, but needing such small seats across the county it's not really on. 6. Newton Abbot (70,834). Not a great deal going on here. 7. Tavistock & Dartmoor (71,063). OK, this is pretty ugly, but unlike its (sort of) predecessor Central Devon it only goes into three districts. 8. Torquay (69,873). Loses one ward to Totnes and just stays above the lower limit. Paignton is split, but the western edge was already in Totnes. 9. Totnes (70,873). A few shuffles around the edges. 10. Plymouth North & Yealm (72,091). Plymouth shifts from having a bite taken out to the east to one to the north; this was key to making the map work. The name "South West Devon" could perhaps be retained, but this is substantially a different seat; the largest part of it comes from Plymouth Moor View. 11. North West Devon (70,491). Successor to Torridge & West Devon, but takes more from the east of the latter district. 12. Plymouth Sutton (70,735). Incorporates Plympton and Plymstock, and effectively the successor to South West Devon. 13. Plymouth Devonport (70,326). The arrangement in central Plymouth is just to make the numbers work. You might be able to have a less radical rearrangement in the Plymouth area with a split ward in the city. Anyway, I'll be interested to see if anyone can improve on this. |
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Jan 7, 2021 23:08:13 GMT
Cornwall looks like it should be fairly easy:
St Ives: gains the remainder of Gwinear Gwithian and both Hayle wards.
Camborne & Redruth: gains the remainder of Crowan & Wendron, Mabe etc, Carharrack etc, St Agnes plus all of Perranporth.
Truro & Falmouth: gains St Enoder and the remainder of Newlyn etc, Probus etc, Roseland.
St Austell & Newquay: gains remainder of Bugle.
North Cornwall: unchanged.
South East Cornwall: loses part of Bugle.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 10, 2021 9:49:48 GMT
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 10, 2021 9:55:43 GMT
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 10, 2021 10:23:03 GMT
Dorset and BCP are amongst the very few principle authorities that work and are located on the boundary of the region, so I would leave well alone. Your proposal would increase the number of cross boundary constituencies If you want to limit the number of cross-boundaries, then leave Somerset out of it completely and only use Dorset to mediate Wiltshire and Devon's problems – Somerset's numbers work without needing anything from Wiltshire, and crossing the Somerset/Devon boundary is just very, very bad. Dorset looked like it would be straightforward, but again the larger (CC division) boundaries cause problems. In the BCP area things are fine either way. If you select the four current constituencies (Christchurch/Bournemouth East & West/Poole, realigned with new ward boundaries) they are all in quota. If you take the new BCP local authority area you can easily draw four seats in quote also (though it involved what seems to me a lot of unnecessary disruption). The problem lies in the rest of the county, particularly in trying to sort out the oversized West Dorset (and being constrained by the fact Dorset South cannot be changed other than drastically ie. unnecessarily). The simple expedient of moving Lyme Regis into an East Devon seat solves the problem in Dorset and will significantly help in Devon as well |
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Post by andrewp on Jan 10, 2021 10:33:23 GMT
Thanks Pete. Those are roughly the only 2 feasible options I get. They are both awful in places on the ground. You have to put either Wellington or Bridgwater with West Somerset. Option 1 has bits of Taunton in the West Somerset seat. Both options have bits of Bridgwater not in the same seat as the majority of the town as they, stupidly, are in North Petherton ward. I think option 2 is the more likely personally as it is less change.
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Jan 10, 2021 12:03:52 GMT
If you want to limit the number of cross-boundaries, then leave Somerset out of it completely and only use Dorset to mediate Wiltshire and Devon's problems – Somerset's numbers work without needing anything from Wiltshire, and crossing the Somerset/Devon boundary is just very, very bad. Dorset looked like it would be straightforward, but again the larger (CC division) boundaries cause problems. In the BCP area things are fine either way. If you select the four current constituencies (Christchurch/Bournemouth East & West/Poole, realigned with new ward boundaries) they are all in quota. If you take the new BCP local authority area you can easily draw four seats in quote also (though it involved what seems to me a lot of unnecessary disruption). The problem lies in the rest of the county, particularly in trying to sort out the oversized West Dorset (and being constrained by the fact Dorset South cannot be changed other than drastically ie. unnecessarily). The simple expedient of moving Lyme Regis into an East Devon seat solves the problem in Dorset and will significantly help in Devon as well I've got a reasonably okay Dorset, Putting Sherborne into North Dorset (where it really belongs) makes the county fall into place (although I must admit I don't like Upwey being in West Dorset!). The conurbation I found more of a problem, because Redhill and Northbourne ward is irritatingly just on the small side. Why the Local Government Commission can't draw ward boundaries straight along the former Bournemouth/Kinson parish boundary...  1 South Dorset 76155 Yes 2 West Dorset 74320 Yes 3 North Dorset 72476 Yes 4 East Dorset 76761 Yes 5 Poole 72162 Yes 6 Bournemouth and Poole North 72084 Yes 7 Bournemouth Central 73379 Yes 8 Bournemouth East and Christchurch 70134 Yes |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 10, 2021 12:26:38 GMT
It hadn't occurred to me to break into Weymouth. I guess now Weymouth & Portland is no longer a thing it matters less than it might have done in the past. And that ward is so peripheral it's almost less a part of the Weymoouth conurbation than Chickerell which was outside the borough and constituency before. Still not ideal but it works. I do think though you may be right that hiving off a bit of West Dorset to help out Devon would then enable North Dorset to solve the Wiltshire problem (loath as I am to see a cross county constituency). I can't see how you're going to get Wiltshire to work without splitting wards unless we're extremely lucky with the way the numbers fall on the new ward boundaries
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Jan 10, 2021 12:44:47 GMT
Somerset. Quite happy with this one except for the orphan ward from Taunton in my Somerton constituency.  1 Bath 73241 Yes (no longer a doughnut!) 2 Stanton Drew 73059 Yes (trying to think of a more elegant name for Rural North and North East Somerset – went for the megalithic monument from 2019's most monumental election broadcast) 3 Portbury 70267 Yes (this would probably continue to be called North Somerset, but the reduced boundaries match the Hundred of Portbury almost perfectly; changing the name would free up "North Somerset" for the former, for those who don't like megalithic monuments) 4 Weston-super-Mare 70722 Yes 5 Wells 74280 Yes 6 Frome 70432 Yes (gaining Shepton Mallet – which brings Wells within range – and Norton-Radstock – which sorts out the unitaries – means that Frome no longer needs any wards from South Somerset and can lose its "Somerton and") 7 Yeovil 71523 Yes 8 Taunton Deane 76175 Yes 9 Bridgwater and West Somerset 76432 Yes 10 Somerton 75169 Yes (the "new" constituency – the Somerton half of Somerton and Frome with obvious additions to bring Yeovil, Bridgwater, and Taunton down to size) |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jan 10, 2021 12:47:55 GMT
I'm not sure there is a Wiltshire problem (unless this is one where the numbers currently on Boundary Assistant aren't what the BCE will actually be using?) If you remove Ridgeway ward from Swindon and then swap Shaw and Lydiard & Freshbrook for Covingham & Dorcan, St Margaret & South Marston and Blunsdon & Highworth then the two Swindon seats works, and the Wiltshire wards are small enough and with a big enough range of electorates to get five seats right at the top of the quota. You may have to swap a town or two between seats, but none of them need to be split.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 10, 2021 12:57:54 GMT
I'm not sure there is a Wiltshire problem (unless this is one where the numbers currently on Boundary Assistant aren't what the BCE will actually be using?) If you remove Ridgeway ward from Swindon and then swap Shaw and Lydiard & Freshbrook for Covingham & Dorcan, St Margaret & South Marston and Blunsdon & Highworth then the two Swindon seats works, and the Wiltshire wards are small enough and with a big enough range of electorates to get five seats right at the top of the quota. You may have to swap a town or two between seats, but none of them need to be split. That is the case yes. As I say we may be lucky but the average seat size is 76,216 so its inevitably tight ( I assume that whatever the numbers are for the new wards, the total is the same) |
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Post by greenhert on Jan 10, 2021 12:58:07 GMT
Somerset. Quite happy with this one except for the orphan ward from Taunton in my Somerton constituency. 1 Bath 73241 Yes (no longer a doughnut!) 2 Stanton Drew 73059 Yes (trying to think of a more elegant name for Rural North and North East Somerset – went for the megalithic monument from 2019's most monumental election broadcast) 3 Portbury 70267 Yes (this would probably continue to be called North Somerset, but the reduced boundaries match the Hundred of Portbury almost perfectly; changing the name would free up "North Somerset" for the former, for those who don't like megalithic monuments) 4 Weston-super-Mare 70722 Yes 5 Wells 74280 Yes 6 Frome 70432 Yes (gaining Shepton Mallet – which brings Wells within range – and Norton-Radstock – which sorts out the unitaries – means that Frome no longer needs any wards from South Somerset and can lose its "Somerton and") 7 Yeovil 71523 Yes 8 Taunton Deane 76175 Yes 9 Bridgwater and West Somerset 76432 Yes 10 Somerton 75169 Yes (the "new" constituency – the Somerton half of Somerton and Frome with obvious additions to bring Yeovil, Bridgwater, and Taunton down to size) Very similar to my own plan for Somerset. Keynsham would be a more elegant name for the successor to North East Somerset, given that it will be central to the constituency and also its largest settlement. It is better to just split Yeovil into Yeovil and Chard, especially when the Somerton part from Somerton & Frome is added to both and distributed according to electoral quota requirements; the rural eastern parts of Taunton Deane can then be added to get Chard into quota. As for west Somerset and large constituencies there, simply add the westernmost parts around Exmoor National Park to most of North Devon to create Barnstaple & Exmoor, which at the same time also means less unnecessary change for Dorset and neatens up the redrawn Devon seats. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jan 10, 2021 13:08:05 GMT
I'm not sure there is a Wiltshire problem (unless this is one where the numbers currently on Boundary Assistant aren't what the BCE will actually be using?) If you remove Ridgeway ward from Swindon and then swap Shaw and Lydiard & Freshbrook for Covingham & Dorcan, St Margaret & South Marston and Blunsdon & Highworth then the two Swindon seats works, and the Wiltshire wards are small enough and with a big enough range of electorates to get five seats right at the top of the quota. You may have to swap a town or two between seats, but none of them need to be split. That is the case yes. As I say we may be lucky but the average seat size is 76,216 so its inevitably tight ( I assume that whatever the numbers are for the new wards, the total is the same) OK, that may be an issue, as most solutions I've found rest of putting Warminster Rural (which contains none of the eponymous town) in with Salisbury, but the new boundaries combine that with Warminster proper. That said, it looks like there are also significant changes round Amesbury which create some rural wards that look pretty small to me, so they might do as replacements. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 10, 2021 13:35:06 GMT
A first go at Gloucestershire (and Bristol, though I'm not super happy with my boundaries there): Forest of Dean - unchanged Tewkesbury - loses Longlevens, Winchcombe and Isbourne; gains Up Hatherley and Benhall & the Reddings Gloucester - gains Longlevens, loses both Quedgeley wards plus Kingsway Cheltenham - loses Up Hatherley and Benhall & the Reddings Cotswold - gains Winchcombe and Isbourne; loses the three Tetbury wards, Grumbolds Ash and the parts of Stroud District Stroud - gains the 3 wards from Gloucester and Minchinhampton; loses Nailsworth, Coaley & Uley, Berkeley Vale, Dursley, Cam East and Cam West Dursley & Yate - the leftover parts of Stroud and Cotswold Districts, plus Charfield, Chipping Sodbury, Dodington, Yate North and Yate Central Thornbury & Bradley Stoke - Thornbury, Severn Vale, Frampton Cotterell, Pilning, Winterbourne, Charlton & Cribbs, Patchway, Bradley Stoke x2, Stoke Gifford Kingswood - gains Boyd Valley Bristol North West - loses Stoke Bishop, gains Filton Bristol West - loses Ashley, Lawrence Hill, Easton; gains Stoke Bishop Bristol East - loses Brislington x2, Stockwood; gains Stoke Park & Cheswick, Frenchay & Downend, Staple Hill & Mangotsfield Bristol South - loses Knowle Bristol South East - Ashley, Brislington East, Brislington West, Easton, Knowle, Lawrence Hill, Stockwood Much better version of Bristol West than the current "West". |
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Jan 10, 2021 14:10:35 GMT
Somerset. Quite happy with this one except for the orphan ward from Taunton in my Somerton constituency. 1 Bath 73241 Yes (no longer a doughnut!) 2 Stanton Drew 73059 Yes (trying to think of a more elegant name for Rural North and North East Somerset – went for the megalithic monument from 2019's most monumental election broadcast) 3 Portbury 70267 Yes (this would probably continue to be called North Somerset, but the reduced boundaries match the Hundred of Portbury almost perfectly; changing the name would free up "North Somerset" for the former, for those who don't like megalithic monuments) 4 Weston-super-Mare 70722 Yes 5 Wells 74280 Yes 6 Frome 70432 Yes (gaining Shepton Mallet – which brings Wells within range – and Norton-Radstock – which sorts out the unitaries – means that Frome no longer needs any wards from South Somerset and can lose its "Somerton and") 7 Yeovil 71523 Yes 8 Taunton Deane 76175 Yes 9 Bridgwater and West Somerset 76432 Yes 10 Somerton 75169 Yes (the "new" constituency – the Somerton half of Somerton and Frome with obvious additions to bring Yeovil, Bridgwater, and Taunton down to size) Very similar to my own plan for Somerset. Keynsham would be a more elegant name for the successor to North East Somerset, given that it will be central to the constituency and also its largest settlement. It is better to just split Yeovil into Yeovil and Chard, especially when the Somerton part from Somerton & Frome is added to both and distributed according to electoral quota requirements; the rural eastern parts of Taunton Deane can then be added to get Chard into quota. As for west Somerset and large constituencies there, simply add the westernmost parts around Exmoor National Park to most of North Devon to create Barnstaple & Exmoor, which at the same time also means less unnecessary change for Dorset and neatens up the redrawn Devon seats. 1) Keynsham is peripheral and very North *East* Somerset. That would be very, very pitchforky. 2) Yes, an east-west split of South Somerset is an interesting idea. I just went for minimum change. 3) I suggest you try putting bits of West Somerset into North Devon (which is already on the large side) – it isn't pretty. |
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Post by greenhert on Jan 10, 2021 15:01:03 GMT
I have, and removed the area around South Molton to put Barnstaple & Exmoor into quota; South Molton slots nicely into a Tiverton-based constituency (alternatively it can be moved in with Torridge and Okehampton to recreate the historic South Molton constituency of 1918-1950).
This in turn allows Honiton to have its own constituency (the rest of East Devon still goes into Exeter East & Exmouth as with the 2019 electoral figures) without having to add any outlying areas of Dorset.
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