YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
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Post by YL on Oct 19, 2021 15:33:55 GMT
I think these are actually an older version. Peterborough and Sheffield Hallam were both shown flipping in the first NS version and later changed (I think correctly, given how minor the changes are, and at least in the Hallam case the changes marginally favour the incumbent). The map above has both flipping. |
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Post by hullenedge on Oct 19, 2021 15:45:38 GMT
Sadly I can't locate another tweet/calculation that put Con on 378 and overall majority of 106. Think Lab were 195 (including Speaker), LD 8 and PC 2. SNP were unchanged.
These headlines figures are interesting but less important than the Con lead required for an overall majority after the changes are implemented. The Labour lead required will be in the region of 12/13%.
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nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Oct 21, 2021 9:43:18 GMT
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Post by rcronald on Oct 21, 2021 9:55:52 GMT
A bit of leeway with the final figures and according to these calculations Con require a 5% lead for an overall majority. But the NS calculation underestimates the conservative seats in England. |
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Post by hullenedge on Oct 21, 2021 11:42:01 GMT
A bit of leeway with the final figures and according to these calculations Con require a 5% lead for an overall majority. But the NS calculation underestimates the conservative seats in England. It's froth until the final recommendations have been agreed. Being partisan I'd prefer a scenario where we stick around 365ish seats but require a 1% lead for an overall majority rather than 'gain' a dozen seats and require a 5% lead. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 21, 2021 12:03:54 GMT
In practice though a 1% Tory lead likely means their majority has gone. Similarly whilst Labour need a big lead to get one of their own, it would surely be a *bit* less than the 12-13% currently being posited. In both cases, differential swing would be likely to have a significant effect.
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Post by rcronald on Oct 21, 2021 12:14:11 GMT
But the NS calculation underestimates the conservative seats in England. It's froth until the final recommendations have been agreed. Being partisan I'd prefer a scenario where we stick around 365ish seats but require a 1% lead for an overall majority rather than 'gain' a dozen seats and require a 5% lead. Yes, but they put places like Peterborough as Lab-2019 when it has the same boundaries…… |
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Post by hullenedge on Oct 21, 2021 12:22:28 GMT
It's froth until the final recommendations have been agreed. Being partisan I'd prefer a scenario where we stick around 365ish seats but require a 1% lead for an overall majority rather than 'gain' a dozen seats and require a 5% lead. Yes, but they put places like Peterborough as Lab-2019 when it has the same boundaries…… Peterborough Con hold in this batch:- drive.google.com/drive/folders/13CXdlKUZ5hXYWVKC6E5CcJdJo3Ph-Sx2?usp=sharing |
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Post by hullenedge on Oct 21, 2021 12:27:20 GMT
In practice though a 1% Tory lead likely means their majority has gone. Similarly whilst Labour need a big lead to get one of their own, it would surely be a *bit* less than the 12-13% currently being posited. In both cases, differential swing would be likely to have a significant effect. It does at the mo but after the changes who knows? |
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Post by rcronald on Oct 21, 2021 12:32:11 GMT
There is no way Labour won Croydon East by 9%…….. |
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ilerda
Conservative
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Post by ilerda on Oct 21, 2021 13:11:50 GMT
Are these also on the NS website or not? It's not the same results as the ones from early June I don't think. |
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Post by hullenedge on Oct 21, 2021 13:16:30 GMT
Are these also on the NS website or not? It's not the same results as the ones from early June I don't think. The later adjustments. They were on the site behind the paywall. |
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Post by hullenedge on Nov 8, 2021 8:53:47 GMT
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Post by johnloony on Nov 16, 2021 23:00:14 GMT
That says Croydon East has a Conservative win by 7% whereas the other link (above) has Labour winning by 9%. In other words, they are both a load of hippopotamus poo instead of proper serious stuff. |
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Nov 24, 2021 14:23:11 GMT
The BCE have just produced an easy read guide to the boundary changes and in it is this interesting snippet: "This process is called the 2023 Boundary Review, because it will finish by July 2023". This is the first time I believe a date has been mentioned and makes me even more confident that the next election will be held on November 30th 2023
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nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Nov 24, 2021 16:01:59 GMT
The BCE have just produced an easy read guide to the boundary changes and in it is this interesting snippet: "This process is called the 2023 Boundary Review, because it will finish by July 2023". This is the first time I believe a date has been mentioned and makes me even more confident that the next election will be held on November 30th 2023 Well we had our first December election since 1923 2 years ago so that would be first November once since 1935 |
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Post by evergreenadam on Nov 24, 2021 17:14:22 GMT
The BCE have just produced an easy read guide to the boundary changes and in it is this interesting snippet: "This process is called the 2023 Boundary Review, because it will finish by July 2023". This is the first time I believe a date has been mentioned and makes me even more confident that the next election will be held on November 30th 2023 Only two years to wait! |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Nov 24, 2021 17:22:31 GMT
The BCE have just produced an easy read guide to the boundary changes and in it is this interesting snippet: "This process is called the 2023 Boundary Review, because it will finish by July 2023". This is the first time I believe a date has been mentioned and makes me even more confident that the next election will be held on November 30th 2023 Only two years to wait!
And my guess is that there will still be no major party worth voting for.
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Post by carolus on Nov 24, 2021 17:32:33 GMT
The BCE have just produced an easy read guide to the boundary changes and in it is this interesting snippet: "This process is called the 2023 Boundary Review, because it will finish by July 2023". This is the first time I believe a date has been mentioned and makes me even more confident that the next election will be held on November 30th 2023 This was already known - the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 2020 made explicit provision that the boundary comissions must submit their reports before 1 July 2023. www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2020/25/section/1/enacted |
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Post by johnloony on Nov 25, 2021 22:09:15 GMT
The BCE have just produced an easy read guide to the boundary changes and in it is this interesting snippet: "This process is called the 2023 Boundary Review, because it will finish by July 2023". This is the first time I believe a date has been mentioned and makes me even more confident that the next election will be held on November 30th 2023 Why so precise? |
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