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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 5, 2021 9:46:33 GMT
Formal announcement by the PBCW: bcomm-wales.gov.uk/reviews/01-21/2023-reviewFor the purposes of the 2023 Review, the total UK electorate to be used by the four UK Boundary Commissions is 47,558,398 and after applying the formula specified in the Act, the allocation of constituencies to each part of the UK is:  * The electorate for England does not contain the electorate of the Isle of Wight. This area is permitted to create constituencies with an electorate that is more than 5% outside the UK electoral quota. The number of constituencies allocated to England includes the additional constituencies for the Isle of Wight. ** The electorate for Scotland does not contain the electorate of the two preserved constituencies which are a) Orkney and Shetland and b) Na h-Eileanan an Iar. These constituencies are permitted to have an electorate that is more than 5% outside the UK electoral quota. The number of constituencies allocated to Scotland includes the additional constituencies of Orkney and Shetland, and Na h-Eileanan an Iar. *** The electorate for Wales does not contain the electorate of the Isle of Anglesey. This area is permitted to create a constituency with an electorate that is more than 5% outside the UK electoral quota. The number of constituencies allocated to Wales includes the additional constituency for the Isle of Anglesey. The UK electoral quota is to the nearest whole number is 73,393. Each proposed constituency must therefore have an electorate that is between 69,724 and 77,062. |
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Crimson King
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Post by Crimson King on Jan 5, 2021 9:53:23 GMT
Woo hoo!
Can I make sure I am reading right - the electorate for eg scotland is for the mainland(ish)only but the allocation is all seats so the qota for ‘mainland’ seats is 4079612/(57-2)
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Jan 5, 2021 9:56:52 GMT
Probably worth noting that it appears the head of the review in Wales this time was in charge of the English review last time, which may be why they're ahead of the curve on this occasion.
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greenhert
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Post by greenhert on Jan 5, 2021 10:22:07 GMT
Formal announcement by the PBCW: bcomm-wales.gov.uk/reviews/01-21/2023-reviewFor the purposes of the 2023 Review, the total UK electorate to be used by the four UK Boundary Commissions is 47,558,398 and after applying the formula specified in the Act, the allocation of constituencies to each part of the UK is: * The electorate for England does not contain the electorate of the Isle of Wight. This area is permitted to create constituencies with an electorate that is more than 5% outside the UK electoral quota. The number of constituencies allocated to England includes the additional constituencies for the Isle of Wight. ** The electorate for Scotland does not contain the electorate of the two preserved constituencies which are a) Orkney and Shetland and b) Na h-Eileanan an Iar. These constituencies are permitted to have an electorate that is more than 5% outside the UK electoral quota. The number of constituencies allocated to Scotland includes the additional constituencies of Orkney and Shetland, and Na h-Eileanan an Iar. *** The electorate for Wales does not contain the electorate of the Isle of Anglesey. This area is permitted to create a constituency with an electorate that is more than 5% outside the UK electoral quota. The number of constituencies allocated to Wales includes the additional constituency for the Isle of Anglesey. The UK electoral quota is to the nearest whole number is 73,393. Each proposed constituency must therefore have an electorate that is between 69,724 and 77,062. Constituency entitlements by Welsh local authority (rounded to the nearest two decimal places; Ynys Mon is excluded from this list as it is a protected constituency): Blaenau Gwent: 0.69 Bridgend: 1.48 Caerphilly: 1.81 Cardiff: 3.43 Carmarthenshire: 1.94 Ceredigion: 0.77 Conwy: 1.23 Denbighshire: 1.01 Flintshire: 1.60 Gwynedd: 1.19 Merthyr Tydfil: 0.61 Monmouthshire: 0.99 Neath Port Talbot: 1.47 Newport: 1.53 Pembrokeshire: 1.29 Powys: 1.42 Rhondda Cynon Taff: 2.38 Swansea: 2.44 Torfaen: 0.96 Vale of Glamorgan: 1.35 Wrexham: 1.33 |
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Post by kevinlarkin on Jan 5, 2021 10:32:00 GMT
Looking at the ward data for England and Wales, while it does contain the new wards for places that had elections scheduled for 2020 that were not included in the last BCE release (e.g. Oxford, Pendle, Rotherham) it still has the current wards for authorities where an electoral change order was made before December 2019 for elections scheduled in 2021 and 2022 (15 London Boroughs and 3 Unitaries).
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Jan 5, 2021 10:34:15 GMT
Constituency entitlements by Welsh local authority (rounded to the nearest two decimal places; Ynys Mon is excluded from this list as it is a protected constituency): Blaenau Gwent: 0.69 Bridgend: 1.48 Caerphilly: 1.81 Cardiff: 3.43 Carmarthenshire: 1.94 Ceredigion: 0.77 Conwy: 1.23 Denbighshire: 1.01 Flintshire: 1.60 Gwynedd: 1.19 Merthyr Tydfil: 0.61 Monmouthshire: 0.99 Neath Port Talbot: 1.47 Newport: 1.53 Pembrokeshire: 1.29 Powys: 1.42 Rhondda Cynon Taff: 2.38 Swansea: 2.44 Torfaen: 0.96 Vale of Glamorgan: 1.35 Wrexham: 1.33 Thanks for these. My initial reaction is "eek"! For every authority that seems to divide neatly, there are some next to it that are a long way from a whole number of quotas. Whichever boundaries emerge are unlikely to look pretty, either on the ground or on a map. |
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Post by newsouthender on Jan 5, 2021 10:43:47 GMT
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jan 5, 2021 10:44:20 GMT
Looking through the figures, I'm pretty sure the electorate given for Trumpington ward, Cambridge is an error - it's already 3000 higher than it was expected to be in 2024, which makes me wonder if they've accidentally used data from the old wards by mistake.
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Post by John Chanin on Jan 5, 2021 10:44:21 GMT
Looking at the ward data for England and Wales, while it does contain the new wards for places that had elections scheduled for 2020 that were not included in the last BCE release (e.g. Oxford, Pendle, Rotherham) it still has the current wards for authorities where an electoral change order was made before December 2019 for elections scheduled in 2021 and 2022 (15 London Boroughs and 3 Unitaries). That is really annoying, but not totally unexpected. This is something that is genuinely worth querying ONS about. Edit: I see this is addressed on the BCE site - see newsouthender ‘s post. No timescale though. |
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Post by evergreenadam on Jan 5, 2021 10:49:15 GMT
It also has the regional allocation of seats in England. |
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Post by John Chanin on Jan 5, 2021 10:55:19 GMT
It also has the regional allocation of seats in England. Yes looks like any chance of persuading the BCE to ignore the “regions” is hopeless. So no chance of linking Cleveland with North Yorkshire, or Milton Keynes with Northamptonshire, or north Lincolnshire with south Lincolnshire, all of which would be sensible. |
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Post by evergreenadam on Jan 5, 2021 10:57:18 GMT
It also has the regional allocation of seats in England. Yes looks like any chance of persuading the BCE to ignore the “regions” is hopeless. So no chance of linking Cleveland with North Yorkshire, or Milton Keynes with Northamptonshire, or north Lincolnshire with south Lincolnshire, all of which would be sensible. Am trying to remember if the regional allocations have changed at all since we calculated them for the Dec 2019 register. |
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Jan 5, 2021 11:01:06 GMT
Formal announcement by the PBCW: bcomm-wales.gov.uk/reviews/01-21/2023-reviewFor the purposes of the 2023 Review, the total UK electorate to be used by the four UK Boundary Commissions is 47,558,398 and after applying the formula specified in the Act, the allocation of constituencies to each part of the UK is: * The electorate for England does not contain the electorate of the Isle of Wight. This area is permitted to create constituencies with an electorate that is more than 5% outside the UK electoral quota. The number of constituencies allocated to England includes the additional constituencies for the Isle of Wight. ** The electorate for Scotland does not contain the electorate of the two preserved constituencies which are a) Orkney and Shetland and b) Na h-Eileanan an Iar. These constituencies are permitted to have an electorate that is more than 5% outside the UK electoral quota. The number of constituencies allocated to Scotland includes the additional constituencies of Orkney and Shetland, and Na h-Eileanan an Iar. *** The electorate for Wales does not contain the electorate of the Isle of Anglesey. This area is permitted to create a constituency with an electorate that is more than 5% outside the UK electoral quota. The number of constituencies allocated to Wales includes the additional constituency for the Isle of Anglesey. The UK electoral quota is to the nearest whole number is 73,393. Each proposed constituency must therefore have an electorate that is between 69,724 and 77,062. Constituency entitlements by Welsh local authority (rounded to the nearest two decimal places; Ynys Mon is excluded from this list as it is a protected constituency): Blaenau Gwent: 0.69 Bridgend: 1.48 Caerphilly: 1.81 Cardiff: 3.43 Carmarthenshire: 1.94 Ceredigion: 0.77 Conwy: 1.23 Denbighshire: 1.01 Flintshire: 1.60 Gwynedd: 1.19 Merthyr Tydfil: 0.61 Monmouthshire: 0.99 Neath Port Talbot: 1.47 Newport: 1.53 Pembrokeshire: 1.29 Powys: 1.42 Rhondda Cynon Taff: 2.38 Swansea: 2.44 Torfaen: 0.96 Vale of Glamorgan: 1.35 Wrexham: 1.33 So that gives Monmouthshire (1), Torfaen (1), BG+Caerphilly+Newport (4.03→4), MT+RCT (2.99→3), Carmarthenshire (2), Ceredigion+Pembrokeshire (2.06→2), Flintshire+Wrexham (2.93→3), Denbighshire (1), and everything else (14.01→14). |
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Post by kevinlarkin on Jan 5, 2021 11:05:23 GMT
Yes looks like any chance of persuading the BCE to ignore the “regions” is hopeless. So no chance of linking Cleveland with North Yorkshire, or Milton Keynes with Northamptonshire, or north Lincolnshire with south Lincolnshire, all of which would be sensible. Am trying to remember if the regional allocations have changed at all since we calculated them for the Dec 2019 register. Eastern = 61 (increase of three) -1 on Dec 2019 East Midlands = 47 (increase of one) -1 London = 75 (increase of two) no change North East = 27 (decrease of two) +1 North West = 73 (decrease of two) -1 South East = 91 (increase of seven) no change South West = 58 (increase of three) no change West Midlands = 57 (decrease of two) no change Yorkshire and the Humber = 54 (no change) +1 |
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ilerda
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Post by ilerda on Jan 5, 2021 11:08:58 GMT
Very relieved that Yorkshire & Humber has managed to get to the 54 seats. It was so close based on the December 2019 data but 54 makes it so much easier to create a workable set of constituencies.
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greenhert
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Post by greenhert on Jan 5, 2021 11:11:53 GMT
Looking at the ward data for England and Wales, while it does contain the new wards for places that had elections scheduled for 2020 that were not included in the last BCE release (e.g. Oxford, Pendle, Rotherham) it still has the current wards for authorities where an electoral change order was made before December 2019 for elections scheduled in 2021 and 2022 (15 London Boroughs and 3 Unitaries). That is really annoying, but not totally unexpected. This is something that is genuinely worth querying ONS about. Edit: I see this is addressed on the BCE site - see newsouthender ‘s post. No timescale though. Speaking of which, I cannot seem to access said ward data for March 2020 even though it has been published-why not? I looked in the relevant link and the dataset was not present for me to download. |
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Post by John Chanin on Jan 5, 2021 11:17:20 GMT
That is really annoying, but not totally unexpected. This is something that is genuinely worth querying ONS about. Edit: I see this is addressed on the BCE site - see newsouthender ‘s post. No timescale though. Speaking of which, I cannot seem to access said ward data for March 2020 even though it has been published-why not? I looked in the relevant link and the dataset was not present for me to download. As stated on the other thread you may need to clear your cache, if refresh doesn’t work, or force a refresh from the server. The data is definitely there. |
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Post by islington on Jan 5, 2021 11:43:12 GMT
Constituency entitlements by Welsh local authority (rounded to the nearest two decimal places; Ynys Mon is excluded from this list as it is a protected constituency): Blaenau Gwent: 0.69 Bridgend: 1.48 Caerphilly: 1.81 Cardiff: 3.43 Carmarthenshire: 1.94 Ceredigion: 0.77 Conwy: 1.23 Denbighshire: 1.01 Flintshire: 1.60 Gwynedd: 1.19 Merthyr Tydfil: 0.61 Monmouthshire: 0.99 Neath Port Talbot: 1.47 Newport: 1.53 Pembrokeshire: 1.29 Powys: 1.42 Rhondda Cynon Taff: 2.38 Swansea: 2.44 Torfaen: 0.96 Vale of Glamorgan: 1.35 Wrexham: 1.33 So that gives Monmouthshire (1), Torfaen (1), BG+Caerphilly+Newport (4.03→4), MT+RCT (2.99→3), Carmarthenshire (2), Ceredigion+Pembrokeshire (2.06→2), and everything else (17.95→18). Can you not break down the 'everything else'?
Cardiff + Vale + Bridgend + NPT + Swansea = 10.17 = 10 Flint + Wrexham = 2.93 = 3 Denbigh = 1.01 = 1
That leaves Conwy + Gwynedd + Powys = 3.84 = 4. This would normally be too tight, since the seats would average out at 0.96. But given the exceptionally small wards in this area it might just be possible.
Alternatively, maybe bolster this combination by 'borrowing' the Swansea Valley wards that currently sit rather awkwardly in NPT. This would even up the numbers and leave you with a sprawling 'everything else' with 14.01 = 14.
Edited to add: Sorry, this crossed with Neath West's edit of his post.
10.17 should be perfectly feasible for the 'Rest of Glamorgan' grouping, but is 3.84 really out of the question for Conwy-Gwynedd-Powys?
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greenhert
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Post by greenhert on Jan 5, 2021 11:44:11 GMT
I found it-it turns out you must enable cookies.
Looking at the March 2020 data, the first thing I noticed was that it will no longer be necessary to have a Devon/Dorset cross-county constituency.
Other good points include (inter alia): Brighton & Hove being entitled to 3 constituencies without having to add any wards from Lewes, Peterborough being able to have two constituencies to itself (North East and South West), Oxfordshire no longer having to be paired with Berkshire, Sheffield being able to have six constituencies to itself.
Bad points include (inter alia): Buckinghamshire will realistically have to be paired with another county since Milton Keynes cannot stand on its own, Lambeth now having too many electors for three whole constituencies (however Inner London authorities notoriously have problems with keeping electoral registers accurate), and the redrawing of Merseyside's constituencies will be a real mess.
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J.G.Harston
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Post by J.G.Harston on Jan 5, 2021 11:56:18 GMT
It also has the regional allocation of seats in England. Yes looks like any chance of persuading the BCE to ignore the “regions” is hopeless. So no chance of linking Cleveland with North Yorkshire, or Milton Keynes with Northamptonshire, or north Lincolnshire with south Lincolnshire, all of which would be sensible. But, do (N/n)orth Lincolnshire and Cleveland come to a whole number of seats so they can be sort-of grouped off with their neighbour? |
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