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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 5, 2021 13:33:03 GMT
Because of course the logical boundary between North Humberside and South Humberside is the river Trent... The logical boundary between Lincolnshire and Yorkshire is the river Trent. ...and the Humber. What logic? The West bank of the Trent is Lincolnshire. The boundary is the HUmber and the Ouse |
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J.G.Harston
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Post by J.G.Harston on Jan 5, 2021 13:36:33 GMT
Scarborough minus Filey & Humnanby (the existing S&W) is 1.006 seats, so being on the edge of the map is able to be left unchanged.
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islington
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Post by islington on Jan 5, 2021 13:37:07 GMT
John, I'm not sure what you're saying here.
If you're saying that the legislation should be amended to drop the reference to regions, then I can see a case for that (although I'm still not completely persuaded because the regions help ensure that we get the right number of seats in each part of England and don't end up with, say, larger-than-average seats all over the north and smaller-than-average across the south (or vice versa)).
But as matters stand, the regions are set out in detail in the legislation. Are you proposing that the BCE should use its discretion to ignore them? If so, I disagree: the fact that the regions are specified in statute is a very strong Parliamentary hint to the BCE that they should be used, and I think the BCE would be ill advised to ignore that (although I accept that it would technically be within its rights ).
I thought the reference to the regions had been removed, and the regions have generally no longer a statutory basis. However if they are in the legislation, then yes I agree with you that they will have to be used. Rule 5(2)
"The Boundary Commission for England may take into account, if and to such extent as they think fit, boundaries of the electoral regions specified in Schedule 1 to the European Parliamentary Elections Act 2002 (ignoring paragraph 2(2) of that Schedule and the references to Gibraltar) as it has effect on the most recent ordinary council-election day before the review date."
This is from the 1986 Act, as amended by the 2011 Act. It's been further amended by the 2020 Act, but I think only so as to preserve the regions, with the same boundaries, even though the EU Election Act 2002 is now redundant and has (I presume) been repealed.
The BCE has discretion ("may take into account, if and to such extent as they think fit") so it could theoretically ignore the regions, but I think it would be unwise to do so.
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J.G.Harston
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Post by J.G.Harston on Jan 5, 2021 13:38:36 GMT
The logical boundary between Lincolnshire and Yorkshire is the river Trent. ...and the Humber. What logic? The West bank of the Trent is Lincolnshire. The boundary is the Humber and the Ouse The existing - historical - boundary goes randomly across open fields. The river *is* a logical boundary. |
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Post by andrewteale on Jan 5, 2021 13:39:34 GMT
The North West works out as:
Cumbria 5.31
Lancashire 15.18 including Blackburrn and Blackpool
Lanc Merseyside 10.97
Cheshire and Wirral 14.60
Greater Manchester 27.24
Cumbria can't stand alone and will need to be paired with Lancashire for 20.49 quotas and an allocation of 20. Rounding the other three areas to the nearest whole number gives the required 73.
Lanc Merseyside works out as 3 seats for Sefton and 8 for the rest.
For Greater Manchester, only Manchester (4.89), Stockport (3.02) and Bury (1.95) can theoretically stand alone. Oldham + Rochdale + Tameside is 6.75 quotas, Bolton + Wigan + Salford + Trafford is 10.65 quotas so at least one of Manchester or Bury would need to be disturbed to get the correct allocation of 27. Bury North is under tolerance so you have to do something with it.
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Post by evergreenadam on Jan 5, 2021 13:49:49 GMT
The North West works out as: Cumbria 5.31 Lancashire 15.18 including Blackburrn and Blackpool Lanc Merseyside 10.97 Cheshire and Wirral 14.60 Greater Manchester 27.24 Cumbria can't stand alone and will need to be paired with Lancashire for 20.49 quotas and an allocation of 20. Rounding the other three areas to the nearest whole number gives the required 73. Lanc Merseyside works out as 3 seats for Sefton and 8 for the rest. For Greater Manchester, only Manchester (4.89), Stockport (3.02) and Bury (1.95) can theoretically stand alone. Oldham + Rochdale + Tameside is 6.75 quotas, Bolton + Wigan + Salford + Trafford is 10.65 quotas so at least one of Manchester or Bury would need to be disturbed to get the correct allocation of 27. Bury North is under tolerance so you have to do something with it. Please could these be posted in new regional threads as per Yorks & Humber, then they will be easier to find. |
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J.G.Harston
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Post by J.G.Harston on Jan 5, 2021 14:00:38 GMT
Please could these be posted in new regional threads as per Yorks & Humber, then they will be easier to find. Threads set up. |
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Post by finsobruce on Jan 5, 2021 14:01:42 GMT
There appears to have been an outbreak of Psephology on the Forum. The people who have lived in darkness have seen a great light, or rather a great review.   |
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Post by greenhert on Jan 5, 2021 14:13:46 GMT
I found it-it turns out you must enable cookies. Looking at the March 2020 data, the first thing I noticed was that it will no longer be necessary to have a Devon/Dorset cross-county constituency. Other good points include (inter alia): Brighton & Hove being entitled to 3 constituencies without having to add any wards from Lewes, Peterborough being able to have two constituencies to itself (North East and South West), Oxfordshire no longer having to be paired with Berkshire, Sheffield being able to have six constituencies to itself. Bad points include (inter alia): Buckinghamshire will realistically have to be paired with another county since Milton Keynes cannot stand on its own, Lambeth now having too many electors for three whole constituencies (however Inner London authorities notoriously have problems with keeping electoral registers accurate), and the redrawing of Merseyside's constituencies will be a real mess. are you looking at the local electorates in Table 1 ? You need to use the other tables to get the parliamentary electorates. I was. The parliamentary electorates in tables 3 and 4 were the figures I needed to quote. Sorry about the mistake. This does not however alter the fact that a Devon/Dorset cross-county constituency will no longer be necessary, however (since both BCP and Dorset can have 4 constituencies each without any problems). |
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Jan 5, 2021 14:17:25 GMT
Conwy+Gwynedd+Montgomeryshire (0.67) = 3.09 (3) is quite nice and gets the split in a sensible place in both Powys and Gwynedd (the Meirionnydd/Dwyfor boundary works on the numbers). It then just turns into drawing some sort of line across Conwy to bring Dwyfor and Arfon up to size (all of the former Aberconwy district apart from Conwy town and Llansanffraid?). Swansea being so close to a half number makes things awkward. I'm having a play with this to see if I can come up with something reasonably non-ugly. Trying to work out the seats you're thinking of in Powys/Gwynedd/Conwy. Where would the main towns or districts be in that one? A seat of Caernarfon/Bangor/Dwyfor? Conwy/Llandudno/Colwyn Bay? Then everything else? Just trying to picture it from what you have said there. Something like this:  - Ynys Môn 52,415 (unchanged)
- Wrexham 72,371
- Hawarden 72,518
- Flint 70,592 (would probably end up being called "Delyn", despite that being an awful name)
- Denbigh 74,078 (coterminous with LA)
- Conwy 75,590
- Caernarfon 76,378
- Montgomeryshire and Meirionnydd 74,901
- Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire 76,269
- Pembroke 74,614
- Carmarthen 70,869
- Llanelli 71,709
- Brecon and Radnorshire 70,599 (includes Pontardawe as islington suggested)
- Gower 76,801 (really don't like that I've had to stick Cockett into this – the effect of putting Pontardawe into Brecon and Radnorshire is that the Swansea/Neath constituencies need to be relatively large) (from this point onwards, the blown-up version below will help!)
- Swansea Central 74,612
- Neath and Swansea East 77,155 (really don't like that I had to move the Pelenna ward out to get under the upper limit of 77,420)
- Aberavon and Maesteg 72,554
- Bridgend 70,890 (the existing constituency, plus Sarn etc)
- Rhondda and Aberdare 76,235
- Merthyr Tydfil and Mountain Ash 70,255
- Pontypridd 74,677 (there's a four-way shuffle available here to avoid the LA boundary crossing (the 3 Pencoed wards, Pontyclun, Riverside, Cadoc), but it ends up splitting Barry town and generally looks a bit odd)
- Vale of Glamorgan 70,426 (loses Dinas Powys)
- Cardiff South and Penarth 72,809
- Cardiff West 70,318
- Cardiff North 70,771
- Cardiff East 73,069
- Blaenau Gwent 73,114
- Islwyn and Gelligaer 72,263
- Torfaen 70,591 (coterminous with LA)
- Monmouth 72,681 (coterminous with LA)
- Newport West and Caerphilly 74,394
- Newport East 76,159
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Post by robert1 on Jan 5, 2021 16:19:35 GMT
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Post by johnloony on Jan 5, 2021 16:38:12 GMT
I'm getting confused. I keep seeing different figurers. What are the electorate figures we/the BCE are supposed to be using? Which link (precisely) should I go to? In different places I've already read figures for Croydon saying 3.46 quotas (which is about 254,000 electors), but also 277,515 electors* (which is 3.78 quotas). ? ? ?
*(Table 1, column 3, line 113)
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Jan 5, 2021 16:42:22 GMT
I'm getting confused. I keep seeing different figurers. What are the electorate figures we/the BCE are supposed to be using? Which link (precisely) should I go to? In different places I've already read figures for Croydon saying 3.46 quotas (which is about 254,000 electors), but also 277,515 electors* (which is 3.78 quotas). ? ? ? *(Table 1, column 3, line 113) Could the higher figure be local government electors? |
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Post by carolus on Jan 5, 2021 17:05:48 GMT
I'm getting confused. I keep seeing different figurers. What are the electorate figures we/the BCE are supposed to be using? Which link (precisely) should I go to? In different places I've already read figures for Croydon saying 3.46 quotas (which is about 254,000 electors), but also 277,515 electors* (which is 3.78 quotas). ? ? ? *(Table 1, column 3, line 113) Table 1 is the local govt electors broken down by council. Table 3 is the parliamentary electors broken down by council. |
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Post by greenchristian on Jan 5, 2021 18:22:41 GMT
There seem to be some inconsistencies in the data. Table 2 is supposed to show the electorates by constituency and table 3 by local authority.
However, adding up the 2020 figures for the six constituencies across Sandwell & Dudley in table 2 I get 379,519. Adding up figures for those two boroughs in table 3, I get 458,261. It seems incredibly unlikely that there are 78,742 people on the register there for local elections but not Westminster ones. Am I being an idiot, or is there actually a problem? (feel free to answer yes to both questions)
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YL
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Post by YL on Jan 5, 2021 18:39:54 GMT
There seem to be some inconsistencies in the data. Table 2 is supposed to show the electorates by constituency and table 3 by local authority. However, adding up the 2020 figures for the six constituencies across Sandwell & Dudley in table 2 I get 379,519. Adding up figures for those two boroughs in table 3, I get 458,261. It seems incredibly unlikely that there are 78,742 people on the register there for local elections but not Westminster ones. Am I being an idiot, or is there actually a problem? (feel free to answer yes to both questions)
I think you're missing a constituency: those two boroughs have seven (and one ward in a Wolverhampton seat). West Brom East and West; Warley; Halesowen & RR; Dudley North and South; Stourbridge. |
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Post by greenchristian on Jan 5, 2021 18:46:19 GMT
There seem to be some inconsistencies in the data. Table 2 is supposed to show the electorates by constituency and table 3 by local authority. However, adding up the 2020 figures for the six constituencies across Sandwell & Dudley in table 2 I get 379,519. Adding up figures for those two boroughs in table 3, I get 458,261. It seems incredibly unlikely that there are 78,742 people on the register there for local elections but not Westminster ones. Am I being an idiot, or is there actually a problem? (feel free to answer yes to both questions)
I think you're missing a constituency: those two boroughs have seven (and one ward in a Wolverhampton seat). West Brom East and West; Warley; Halesowen & RR; Dudley North and South; Stourbridge. Ooh. Somehow I'd put Stourbridge in the wrong place. Thanks for confirming that it's me being an idiot. |
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Post by johnloony on Jan 5, 2021 19:43:09 GMT
It would have been helpful if they had given us a single list of the electorates that are going to be used for the review, instead of overwhelming us with multiple kerfuffles of irrelevances.
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Andrew_S
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Post by Andrew_S on Jan 5, 2021 20:46:09 GMT
Hoping this thread will get me through the next 10 weeks. |
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Post by robert1 on Jan 5, 2021 20:55:56 GMT
Hoping this thread will get me through the next 10 weeks. Doddle -US election night super thread reaches 2 month anniversary tomorrow. |
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