Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,044
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Post by Sibboleth on Apr 15, 2015 17:39:51 GMT
The Tories in Wales have a high floor and a low ceiling.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,044
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Post by Sibboleth on Apr 15, 2015 17:47:39 GMT
Incidentally, if the LibDems are wiped out in Wales (which is not entirely out of the question), then it will be the first time that Wales has had no LibDem/Liberal/Whig representation since (he writes after an extremely cursory check) at least the 1710s.
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Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
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Post by Richard Allen on Apr 15, 2015 17:50:37 GMT
The Tories in Wales have a high floor and a low ceiling. True, although in terms of seats they did spectacularly fall through the floor for a while. |
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
Posts: 3,598 
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Post by cibwr on May 2, 2015 15:42:30 GMT
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Post by mrhell on May 6, 2015 14:25:14 GMT
Latest Yougov
Labour 39% (-1)
Con 25% (+2)
PC 13% (+1)
UKIP 12% (-1)
LD 8% (+2)
Green 2% (-2)
Others 2%
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 29, 2015 7:52:35 GMT
The key point in that article is that this needs to be sustained- will it look the same in January? Probably not. A lot of undecideds there as well.
UKIP still look strong.
And another point- if Corbyn is up in Wales, where is he down to reach those nationwide polling
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,015
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 29, 2015 9:52:05 GMT
Polls generally show a slight Labour increase since Corbyn took over.
Not neccessarily inconsistent with these figures given Wales is a fairly small portion of the GB electorate.
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
Posts: 3,598
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Post by cibwr on Dec 9, 2015 9:47:19 GMT
www.clickonwales.org/2015/12/ukip-could-play-big-role-in-next-assembly/For the latest poll For the National Assembly Constituency vote Labour: 35% (-4) Conservatives: 23% (no change) Plaid Cymru: 20% (+2) UKIP: 15% (+2) Liberal Democrats: 5% (-1) Others: 3% (+1) List vote Labour: 34% (no change) Conservatives: 23% (-1) Plaid Cymru: 18% (no change) UKIP: 16% (+2) Liberal Democrats: 4% (-1) Greens: 4% (no change) Others: 2% (no change)
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Feb 15, 2016 7:25:57 GMT
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Feb 15, 2016 9:11:01 GMT
I wonder if Plaid still plan on forming that minority government after May.
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Feb 15, 2016 9:20:10 GMT
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
Posts: 3,598
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Post by cibwr on Feb 16, 2016 10:23:16 GMT
I wonder if Plaid still plan on forming that minority government after May. I wonder if the Lib Dems intend forming a group in the National Assembly after May? |
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
Posts: 3,598
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Post by cibwr on Feb 16, 2016 10:23:53 GMT
Actually seriously though, it does look like UKIP are totally teflon, nothing seems to damage them.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,044
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Post by Sibboleth on Feb 16, 2016 16:22:34 GMT
Or it could just be YouGov's apparent new house effect (visible with UK-wide polling as well). Not that Welsh polling is much good at the best of times (he says like a stuck record, but he's right so he doesn't care).
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Post by afleitch on Feb 16, 2016 20:11:05 GMT
If UKIP end up with a spread of seats in Wales it will just feel very out of a place. Like when you burp and a pit of sick comes up.
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Post by greenchristian on Feb 16, 2016 22:56:44 GMT
If UKIP end up with a spread of seats in Wales it will just feel very out of a place. Like when you burp and a pit of sick comes up. If they do get one or more assembly seats, it will be interesting to see where they are. I suspect (albeit based on no real evidence that they'll be in areas with a significant proportion of people who identify as English rather than Welsh. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,044
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Post by Sibboleth on Feb 17, 2016 0:01:22 GMT
Very unlikely that they win any direct seats.
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Post by greenchristian on Feb 17, 2016 0:03:39 GMT
Very unlikely that they win any direct seats. True. I still expect them to do best in regions that are more culturally English than the average. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,044
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Post by Sibboleth on Feb 17, 2016 0:13:27 GMT
Mostly they'll just suck up the generic protest vote, same as everywhere else. Constitutional/Nationality/Etc issues aren't a big deal for most Welsh people.
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 7,065
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Post by jamie on Feb 17, 2016 13:52:18 GMT
What are the best assembly seat prospects for UKIP i.e. where do they perform best and can win the seat through split vote?
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