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Post by johnloony on Dec 2, 2024 14:23:56 GMT
For sake of discussion, what if this poll results in say, Plaid 25 seats Labour 23 seats Reform 24 seats Conservative 21 seats LDs 3 seats We could have a Plaid-Lab coalition or a Reform-Conservative-LD coalition, or a Plaid-Ref or Con -LD coalitionQuestion - how much popcorn should I buy... 24 seats out of 96 would be a recipe for a coalition of chaos |
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Post by Penddu on Dec 2, 2024 15:32:14 GMT
For sake of discussion, what if this poll results in say, Plaid 25 seats Labour 23 seats Reform 24 seats Conservative 21 seats LDs 3 seats We could have a Plaid-Lab coalition or a Reform-Conservative-LD coalition, or a Plaid-Ref or Con -LD coalitionQuestion - how much popcorn should I buy... 24 seats out of 96 would be a recipe for a coalition of chaos I meant a Plaid and either Conservative or Reform plus LD. Highly unlikely but an option.. |
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Post by Penddu on Dec 2, 2024 15:34:48 GMT
Some Reform people are saying this puts Reform on 30 seats and Plaid and Labour on 25. Not sure how they calculate that. I think calculate is a strong word... maybe 'wishcast' |
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
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Post by cibwr on Dec 2, 2024 15:50:07 GMT
Of course one other possibility is a minority administration rather than coalition, we have had that before in Wales. Though not one with just over 25% of the seats. Maybe Plaid minority with a confidence and supply with Labour?
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
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Post by Tony Otim on Dec 2, 2024 16:06:58 GMT
I struggle to see the Lib Dems and Reform ending up in the same coalition...
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pl
Non-Aligned
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Post by pl on Dec 2, 2024 16:15:32 GMT
Of course one other possibility is a minority administration rather than coalition, we have had that before in Wales. Though not one with just over 25% of the seats. Maybe Plaid minority with a confidence and supply with Labour? Would Labour ever get being the junior partner (of whatever type) in a Welsh administration through their NEC? |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Dec 2, 2024 16:36:23 GMT
Of course one other possibility is a minority administration rather than coalition, we have had that before in Wales. Though not one with just over 25% of the seats. Maybe Plaid minority with a confidence and supply with Labour? Would Labour ever get being the junior partner (of whatever type) in a Welsh administration through their NEC? A way that Labour could be forced into it would be if there was a credible Con/Reform/Abolish etc coalition as an alternative, which on these numbers and all numbers so far is highly unlikely. It's also far from certain if those two would work with each other.Labour would be far better sitting it out, negotiating something in exchange for abstaining on the budget then trying to annihilate Plaid at the 2030 election. Legislation can be passed on a case by case issue and the Senedd has historically been good at amending legislation both via committee recommendations and with occasional input from opposition parties. For comparison's sake in 2016 Con+UKIP won 31.8% of the list vote and 33.6% of the FFTP vote. This last poll puts Con and Reform on 42%, polls over the summer have put the combined total at between 30 and 37%. |
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nyx
Non-Aligned
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Post by nyx on Dec 2, 2024 16:36:23 GMT
I'd imagine it will be a case of whether Reform+Con gets to 48 seats– if not, "all other parties collaborate" feels likely.
I can't really think of a feasible coalition that isn't a united right or left– Lab-Con? Plaid-Reform?? None of the options seem to work.
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Post by Penddu on Dec 2, 2024 17:23:30 GMT
It is possible that Reform & Con could reach 48 seats..but I doubt they would work together.
The most likely is a Plaid Lab coalition (with possible LD or Green support). But it will be interesting who would be the largest party....if almost the same numbers could we see an alternating FM position ?
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pl
Non-Aligned
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Post by pl on Dec 2, 2024 17:25:17 GMT
Would Labour ever get being the junior partner (of whatever type) in a Welsh administration through their NEC? A way that Labour could be forced into it would be if there was a credible Con/Reform/Abolish etc coalition as an alternative, which on these numbers and all numbers so far is highly unlikely. It's also far from certain if those two would work with each other.Labour would be far better sitting it out, negotiating something in exchange for abstaining on the budget then trying to annihilate Plaid at the 2030 election. Legislation can be passed on a case by case issue and the Senedd has historically been good at amending legislation both via committee recommendations and with occasional input from opposition parties. For comparison's sake in 2016 Con+UKIP won 31.8% of the list vote and 33.6% of the FFTP vote. This last poll puts Con and Reform on 42%, polls over the summer have put the combined total at between 30 and 37%. The stability of any administration that required Reform votes could be comical. I believe that there have been four UKIP members of the London Assembly. Only one as far as I can see managed to see out their term as a member of UKIP. A large number of Reform members in a Welsh administration being whipped to support a coalition agreement would be a sight to behold. Remember most Reform members have now been members of multiple parties. An average activist over the age of 30 or 35 could conceivably have been in the Conservatives, UKIP, Brexit and now Reform. Long term affiliation to one party is not necessarily in their DNA. And if judging by the performance of UKIP in the European Parliament, getting them to turn up could be challenging. Relying on the DUP was bad enough, but Reform? |
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Post by Penddu on Dec 2, 2024 17:27:54 GMT
Plaid need to be open to working with either Con or Reform - for no other reason than to give them a stronger hand in negotiations with Labour.
Labour need to be realistic - a balanced coalition with Plaid - whether as largest or second party - or face opposition if Plaid go with plan B. Things are certainly beginning to look interesting.
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Post by Penddu on Dec 2, 2024 17:30:35 GMT
A way that Labour could be forced into it would be if there was a credible Con/Reform/Abolish etc coalition as an alternative, which on these numbers and all numbers so far is highly unlikely. It's also far from certain if those two would work with each other.Labour would be far better sitting it out, negotiating something in exchange for abstaining on the budget then trying to annihilate Plaid at the 2030 election. Legislation can be passed on a case by case issue and the Senedd has historically been good at amending legislation both via committee recommendations and with occasional input from opposition parties. For comparison's sake in 2016 Con+UKIP won 31.8% of the list vote and 33.6% of the FFTP vote. This last poll puts Con and Reform on 42%, polls over the summer have put the combined total at between 30 and 37%. The stability of any administration that required Reform votes could be comical. I believe that there have been four UKIP members of the London Assembly. Only one as far as I can see managed to see out their term as a member of UKIP. A large number of Reform members in a Welsh administration being whipped to support a coalition agreement would be a sight to behold. Remember most Reform members have now been members of multiple parties. An average activist over the age of 30 or 35 could conceivably have been in the Conservatives, UKIP, Brexit and now Reform. Long term affiliation to one party is not necessarily in their DNA. And if judging by the performance of UKIP in the European Parliament, getting them to turn up could be challenging. Relying on the DUP was bad enough, but Reform? totally agree - at one stage UKIP had 16 AMs - they quickly disolved into competing factions and independents... I suspect Reform will follow suit |
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Dec 2, 2024 21:51:18 GMT
For sake of discussion, what if this poll results in say, Plaid 25 seats Labour 23 seats Reform 24 seats Conservative 21 seats LDs 3 seats We could have a Plaid-Lab coalition or a Reform-Conservative-LD coalition, or a Plaid-Ref or Con -LD coalition Question - how much popcorn should I buy... In all seriousness, could the King dissolve the Welsh Assembly and call fresh elections if it turned out to be impossible to form a stable administration? |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Dec 2, 2024 22:00:02 GMT
For sake of discussion, what if this poll results in say, Plaid 25 seats Labour 23 seats Reform 24 seats Conservative 21 seats LDs 3 seats We could have a Plaid-Lab coalition or a Reform-Conservative-LD coalition, or a Plaid-Ref or Con -LD coalition Question - how much popcorn should I buy... In all seriousness, could the King dissolve the Welsh Assembly and call fresh elections if it turned out to be impossible to form a stable administration? Presumably there are rules for an automatic new election if the parliament can't pass a budget. |
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Post by Penddu on Dec 3, 2024 4:31:45 GMT
For sake of discussion, what if this poll results in say, Plaid 25 seats Labour 23 seats Reform 24 seats Conservative 21 seats LDs 3 seats We could have a Plaid-Lab coalition or a Reform-Conservative-LD coalition, or a Plaid-Ref or Con -LD coalition Question - how much popcorn should I buy... In all seriousness, could the King dissolve the Welsh Assembly and call fresh elections if it turned out to be impossible to form a stable administration? Firstly it is the Senedd or Welsh Parliament - not the Welsh Assembly - as you well know. Secondly the King has no power to dissolve the Senedd. The mechanism for doing so is laid out in the Wales Act |
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Dec 3, 2024 10:29:03 GMT
In all seriousness, could the King dissolve the Welsh Assembly and call fresh elections if it turned out to be impossible to form a stable administration? Firstly it is the Senedd or Welsh Parliament - not the Welsh Assembly - as you well know. Secondly the King has no power to dissolve the Senedd. The mechanism for doing so is laid out in the Wales Act And what is that mechanism? |
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
Posts: 3,598
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Post by cibwr on Dec 3, 2024 10:37:13 GMT
If no government can be formed after 28? days there is an automatic dissolution.
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Post by Penddu on Dec 3, 2024 10:45:35 GMT
The King may sign a proclamation to confirm dissolution, but the decision is not his - decision is made by Llywydd. But as Cibwr says - it is automatic after 28 days.
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