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Post by michaelarden on Mar 29, 2024 0:47:32 GMT
Not disagreeing that the labour vote could go up, but when the seat is both one of the more likely for the Tories to hold and the obvious top target for the Lib Dems in the whole of Wales (this seat is not in the South East of England and people campaigning here are not likely to be affected by any goings on there), Labour are not going to come close to winning without even running a campaign. The Lib Dem vote distribution has never been remotely close to a normal distribution. What makes you think it will become one now? For the record I also don't think that we are going to win 45% in 50 plus constituencies and have not seen anyone suggest that we will. Some people are arguing the Lib Dems are set to win 40+ seats - some are excitedly punching numbers into election calculators showing the Lib Dems becoming the opposition. If any of that would happen (or even a less excited version) then the party couldn't poll 9% - it's not statistically possible. |
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Mar 29, 2024 0:51:07 GMT
In the last local election, the Liberal Democrats got 0 votes in the part transferred from Neath (so did Conservatives). This is a Labour/Plaid Cymru swing area, it seems. That must be an exaggeration - there will have been some LD and Tory votes in those wards! No candidates in any of those wards! |
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graham
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Post by graham on Mar 29, 2024 12:18:14 GMT
That must be an exaggeration - there will have been some LD and Tory votes in those wards! No candidates in any of those wards! But there will still have been LD and Tory voters there who would have candidates available to support at a GE. |
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Mar 29, 2024 12:25:16 GMT
No candidates in any of those wards! But there will still have been LD and Tory voters there who would have candidates available to support at a GE. For sure, but I would assume there is not many. |
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Post by nobodyimportant on Mar 29, 2024 15:03:13 GMT
Not disagreeing that the labour vote could go up, but when the seat is both one of the more likely for the Tories to hold and the obvious top target for the Lib Dems in the whole of Wales (this seat is not in the South East of England and people campaigning here are not likely to be affected by any goings on there), Labour are not going to come close to winning without even running a campaign. The Lib Dem vote distribution has never been remotely close to a normal distribution. What makes you think it will become one now? For the record I also don't think that we are going to win 45% in 50 plus constituencies and have not seen anyone suggest that we will. Some people are arguing the Lib Dems are set to win 40+ seats - some are excitedly punching numbers into election calculators showing the Lib Dems becoming the opposition. If any of that would happen (or even a less excited version) then the party couldn't poll 9% - it's not statistically possible. It definitely is statistically possible if that vote is concentrated enough. Also bear in mind that 9 percent is the lower end of our polling vote share - most polls are putting us in the low double digits, with 10 percent being the most common polling share. Which may not sound like much of a difference but it really is - if, say, we had won 1/9 more votes than we did in every constituency in 2019 we would have won 21 seats rather than 11. Also, the polls that would predict a Lib Dem official opposition are the ones that are putting the Tories on extremely low vote shares and do so more because of their collapse than our growth. That said Electoral Calculus predictions are clearly nonsense and while it's perfectly possible I think it is very unlikely that we get >30 seats unless we do better in the GE than we are currently polling, while even in the very worst polls for the Tories I, unlike electoral calculus, would expect them to do better than that. However none of this is remotely relevant to whether or not Labour would get 500 votes away from winning Brecon etc. without putting in any effort. |
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Post by kevinf on Mar 30, 2024 18:14:26 GMT
I thought those in favour of Welsh Independence on 30% was very high (Redfield Wilton). Weirdly Political Betting are running it as basically being insignificant.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Apr 24, 2024 16:37:33 GMT
Hmmβ¦
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 25, 2024 12:17:15 GMT
I was just thinking that it was a while since R&W had produced one of their once trademark wacky polls  |
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Post by andrewp on Jun 8, 2024 9:49:42 GMT
π΄σ §σ ’σ ·σ ¬σ ³σ Ώ Welsh Westminster Voting Intention (5-7 June):Redfield Wilton
Labour 45% (+2)
Reform UK 18% (+3)
Conservative 18% (-1)
Plaid Cymru 11% (-3)
Liberal Democrat 5% (+2)
Green 4% (-2)
Other 0% (-1)
Changes +/- 18-19 May
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
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Post by cibwr on Jun 14, 2024 7:44:52 GMT
OK posted elsewhere, but for discussions on the Welsh elements of this poll:
redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-welsh-westminster-and-senedd-voting-intention-5-7-june-2024/?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTAAAR2PLuhNeb71dWWMFqbhI8TmQIB83jyO0IpozsE5GBytrCkWxhA1UdL4xis_aem_AUsFPobNwe0j8eymNKLgfnOnSO6FF7SERgDasP4ofElcjjp5qb6FTcCvUV0rrJdmJMO_EJhH4ZBvksNRTCxP__QG
For their latest voting intentions...
For the Senedd
Labour 36% (-1)
Plaid Cymru 22% (+2)
Conservative 18% (-2)
Reform UK 11% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 6% (+3)
Green 6% (+1)
Abolish the Welsh Assembly 2% (-3)
Other 0% (β)
and on independence if don't know are excluded 37% say yes....
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jun 28, 2024 12:36:25 GMT
Redfield and Wilton (Westminster) Labour 46% (+1) Reform UK 17% (-1) Conservatives 15% (-3) Plaid Cymru 10% (-1) Liberal Democrat 7% (+2) Green 4% (β) Other 1% (+1) (changes from 5-7 June) No indication on when the poll was conducted or how big the sample was. 79% of those who voted Labour in the last General Election say they will vote Labour again. 38% of those who voted Tory in Wales in 2019 will now vote Conservative again. nation.cymru/news/rhun-ap-iorwerth-and-andrew-rt-davies-would-make-better-fm-than-gething-poll/ |
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Post by hullenedge on Jul 1, 2024 11:02:51 GMT
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jul 2, 2024 14:24:08 GMT
Westminster voting intention (YouGov MRP Model): Labour β 40% (-5) Conservative β 16% (-2) Reform UK β 16% (+3) Plaid Cymru β 14% (+2) Lib Dem β 7% (+2) Green β 5% (+1) Other β 2% (+1) Senedd voting intention: Labour β 27% (-3) Plaid Cymru β 23% (N/C) Conservative β 18% (-1) Reform UK β 18% (+6) Lib Dem β 6% (N/C) Green β 5% (-1) Other β 3% (-1) Changes from 30 May β 3 Jun 2024 nation.cymru/news/new-poll-points-to-tory-wipeout-in-wales/
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binky
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Post by binky on Jul 2, 2024 14:26:14 GMT
Westminster voting intention (YouGov MRP Model): Labour β 40% (-5)) Conservative β 16% (-2) Reform UK β 16% (+3) Plaid Cymru β 14% (+2) Lib Dem β 7% (+2) Green β 5% (+1) Other β 2% (+1) Senedd voting intention: Labour β 27% (-3) Plaid Cymru β 23% (N/C) Conservative β 18% (-1) Reform UK β 18% (+6) Lib Dem β 6% Green β 5% (-1) Other β 3% (-1) Changes from 30 May β 3 Jun 2024 nation.cymru/news/new-poll-points-to-tory-wipeout-in-wales/ On #s like that, the new Senedd could get very interesting under the new electoral system. |
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Post by Penddu on Jul 29, 2024 9:52:12 GMT
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jul 29, 2024 11:25:41 GMT
Poll/Survey following the GE asking how people voted earlier this month and how they will vote next time.
Key lines:
No news yet of who conducted it and if it met British Polling Council standards etc. This sounds like Iβm making excuses I know.
Itβs clear that Labour are struggling and Plaid are on the up, it will be interesting of course to see any regional breakdowns.
One thing Iβm very intrigued on is that on this projection theTories would be on 15 seats, meaning thereβll be one seat where they donβt return a member I was working on the assumption that it was almost a given that they and Reform would win one everywhere and there would be a handful of seats where the Tories would pick up a second.
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Sibboleth
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Posts: 16,044
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Post by Sibboleth on Jul 29, 2024 11:48:40 GMT
It's quite literally not a poll.
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Post by Penddu on Jul 30, 2024 0:59:23 GMT
It's quite literally not a poll. True - more a Study of a Poll. But it still makes for interesting reading - it looks like next Senedd election is heading towards a three way tie, with Labour, Plaid & Conservatives/Reform (assuming they would try to work together) all getting around 30 seats each, with another half a dozen seats shared between LDs, Greens & Abolish. Even with minor party support, none of the three major parties/groups could reach a majority. The only stable coalition would seem to be a Labour/Plaid or Plaid/Labour grouping. |
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Post by hullenedge on Nov 8, 2024 13:46:36 GMT
Welsh Senedd Voting Intention:
LAB: 30% (-6)
PLC: 21% (=)
REF: 20% (+19)
CON: 17% (-8)
LDM: 6% (+2)
GRN: 5% (+1)
(Survation)
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Post by Penddu on Nov 8, 2024 19:14:03 GMT
Welsh Senedd Voting Intention: LAB: 30% (-6) PLC: 21% (=) REF: 20% (+19) CON: 17% (-8) LDM: 6% (+2) GRN: 5% (+1) (Survation) Poor performance from Plaid. Reform are taking votes from Labour that Plaid would hope for. |
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