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Post by michaelarden on Mar 29, 2024 0:47:32 GMT
Not disagreeing that the labour vote could go up, but when the seat is both one of the more likely for the Tories to hold and the obvious top target for the Lib Dems in the whole of Wales (this seat is not in the South East of England and people campaigning here are not likely to be affected by any goings on there), Labour are not going to come close to winning without even running a campaign. The Lib Dem vote distribution has never been remotely close to a normal distribution. What makes you think it will become one now? For the record I also don't think that we are going to win 45% in 50 plus constituencies and have not seen anyone suggest that we will. Some people are arguing the Lib Dems are set to win 40+ seats - some are excitedly punching numbers into election calculators showing the Lib Dems becoming the opposition. If any of that would happen (or even a less excited version) then the party couldn't poll 9% - it's not statistically possible.
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maxque
Non-Aligned
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Post by maxque on Mar 29, 2024 0:51:07 GMT
In the last local election, the Liberal Democrats got 0 votes in the part transferred from Neath (so did Conservatives). This is a Labour/Plaid Cymru swing area, it seems. That must be an exaggeration - there will have been some LD and Tory votes in those wards! No candidates in any of those wards!
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Post by graham on Mar 29, 2024 12:18:14 GMT
That must be an exaggeration - there will have been some LD and Tory votes in those wards! No candidates in any of those wards! But there will still have been LD and Tory voters there who would have candidates available to support at a GE.
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maxque
Non-Aligned
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Post by maxque on Mar 29, 2024 12:25:16 GMT
No candidates in any of those wards! But there will still have been LD and Tory voters there who would have candidates available to support at a GE. For sure, but I would assume there is not many.
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Post by nobodyimportant on Mar 29, 2024 15:03:13 GMT
Not disagreeing that the labour vote could go up, but when the seat is both one of the more likely for the Tories to hold and the obvious top target for the Lib Dems in the whole of Wales (this seat is not in the South East of England and people campaigning here are not likely to be affected by any goings on there), Labour are not going to come close to winning without even running a campaign. The Lib Dem vote distribution has never been remotely close to a normal distribution. What makes you think it will become one now? For the record I also don't think that we are going to win 45% in 50 plus constituencies and have not seen anyone suggest that we will. Some people are arguing the Lib Dems are set to win 40+ seats - some are excitedly punching numbers into election calculators showing the Lib Dems becoming the opposition. If any of that would happen (or even a less excited version) then the party couldn't poll 9% - it's not statistically possible. It definitely is statistically possible if that vote is concentrated enough. Also bear in mind that 9 percent is the lower end of our polling vote share - most polls are putting us in the low double digits, with 10 percent being the most common polling share. Which may not sound like much of a difference but it really is - if, say, we had won 1/9 more votes than we did in every constituency in 2019 we would have won 21 seats rather than 11. Also, the polls that would predict a Lib Dem official opposition are the ones that are putting the Tories on extremely low vote shares and do so more because of their collapse than our growth. That said Electoral Calculus predictions are clearly nonsense and while it's perfectly possible I think it is very unlikely that we get >30 seats unless we do better in the GE than we are currently polling, while even in the very worst polls for the Tories I, unlike electoral calculus, would expect them to do better than that. However none of this is remotely relevant to whether or not Labour would get 500 votes away from winning Brecon etc. without putting in any effort.
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Post by kevinf on Mar 30, 2024 18:14:26 GMT
I thought those in favour of Welsh Independence on 30% was very high (Redfield Wilton). Weirdly Political Betting are running it as basically being insignificant.
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jamie
Top Poster
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Post by jamie on Apr 24, 2024 16:37:33 GMT
Hmm…
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 25, 2024 12:17:15 GMT
I was just thinking that it was a while since R&W had produced one of their once trademark wacky polls
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