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Post by LDCaerdydd on Oct 25, 2023 9:07:43 GMT
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
Posts: 3,598 
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Post by cibwr on Oct 28, 2023 20:12:07 GMT
Indeed we do, Ill post something there....
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Post by andrewp on Nov 15, 2023 18:27:17 GMT
From Redfield Wilton
Wales Westminster VI (12-13 November):
Labour 44% (-2)
Conservatives 24% (-2)
Plaid Cymru 13% (+3)
Reform UK 9% (-1)
Green 5% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 4% (+1)
Other 1% (+1)
Changes +/- 14-15 October
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Post by london(ex)tory on Dec 10, 2023 12:19:13 GMT
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Dec 10, 2023 19:01:45 GMT
These are the Westminster numbers and based on 2019: Lab +1%, Con -16%, Plaid +5%, Reform +7%, Lib Dem +1%, Greens and Others +2% Con to Lab swing: 8.5%, Lab to Plaid swing: 2%, Con to Lib Dem swing: 8.5% |
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Post by andrewp on Dec 13, 2023 17:30:18 GMT
Wales Westminster VI (10-11 December):
Labour 47% (+3)
Conservatives 22% (-2)
Plaid Cymru 11% (-2)
Reform UK 10% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 6% (+2)
Green 3% (-2)
Other 0% (-1)
Changes +/- 12-13 November
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,015
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 14, 2023 13:52:30 GMT
As with Scottish polls, not much sign of herding at the moment.
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Post by andrewp on Jan 30, 2024 17:51:36 GMT
Wales Westminster VI (24-26 January) from Redfield Wilton
Labour 48% (+1)
Conservatives 20% (-2)
Reform 12% (+2)
Plaid Cymru 11% (–)
Liberal Democrat 4% (-2)
Green 4% (+1)
Other 1% (+1)
Changes +/- 10-11 December
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 1, 2024 12:33:27 GMT
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,915
Member is Online
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Post by Tony Otim on Feb 1, 2024 13:09:11 GMT
What's the margin of error on a sample size of 286?
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Post by johnloony on Feb 1, 2024 13:14:42 GMT
What's the margin of error on a sample size of 286? 5.8% if you want 95% confidence level |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,015
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 1, 2024 13:47:19 GMT
That *is* a small sample size, beyond question. Hard to credit Labour actually being down on their 2019 showing as well.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Feb 1, 2024 14:24:04 GMT
And the Carmarthen figures: Full tables for both... Survation conducted a constituency survey of 507 people living in the Ynys Môn constituency on behalf of Plaid Cymru. Fieldwork was conducted between 21st December 2023 and 5th January 2024. Tables are available here. Survation conducted a constituency survey of 520 people living in the new Carmarthen constituency on behalf of Plaid Cymru. Fieldwork was conducted between 2nd and 4th January 2024. Tables are available here. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,015
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 2, 2024 12:57:31 GMT
Some (not all) of Survation's constituency polls for the last GE were quite accurate, but I also think the samples sizes were a *bit* bigger than these two.
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Post by andrewp on Feb 21, 2024 18:16:06 GMT
From Redfield Wilton
Wales Westminster VI (18 February):
Labour 45% (-3)
Conservatives 22% (+2)
Reform UK 13% (+1)
Plaid Cymru 10% (-1)
Liberal Democrat 5% (+1)
Green 5% (+1)
Other 1% (–)
Senedd Constituency VI (18 Feb)
Labour 34% (-5)
Conservative 21% (-4)
Plaid Cymru 19% (+1)
Reform UK 13% (+4)
Abolish 6% (+3)
Lib Dem 4% (+1)
Green 3% (-1)
Other 0% (–)
Senedd Regional VI (18 Feb):
Labour 29% (-5)
Plaid 25% (+4)
Conservative 16% (-3)
Reform UK 10% (+3)
Liberal Democrat 8% (+2)
Abolish 7% (+1)
Green 4% (-2)
Other 1% (–)
Changes +/- 24-26 Jan
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
Posts: 3,598
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Post by cibwr on Feb 23, 2024 14:29:32 GMT
Not that elections will be held under the mixed member system, but what would the projected make up of a 60 member Senedd be from this poll?
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Post by timmullen on Mar 27, 2024 17:12:55 GMT
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Post by timmullen on Mar 27, 2024 17:16:31 GMT
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,850
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Post by johng on Mar 27, 2024 19:26:30 GMT
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Post by batman on Mar 27, 2024 20:13:57 GMT
That would be the lowest number of non-Labour MPs in Wales in living memory, although the number of seats will be greatly reduced, and thus it isn't necessarily a fair comparison. In 1966, Labour in Wales lost only Barry, West Flint & Denbigh, all to the Tories, and Montgomeryshire to the Liberals. (They lost Carmarthen to Plaid Cymru in a by-election only a few months later.)
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