The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,015
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 14, 2023 10:45:34 GMT
To state the obvious, a bit of a difference between this poll and recent Redfield/Wilton efforts.
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Post by andrewp on Sept 20, 2023 18:50:12 GMT
Redfield Wilton
Wales Westminster VI (16-17 September):
Labour 44% (+3)
Conservatives 22% (-2)
Plaid Cymru 10% (-3)
Liberal Democrat 9% (+2)
Reform UK 7% (-4)
Green 6% (+2)
Other 1% (+1)
Changes +/- 13-14 August
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Post by bigfatron on Sept 20, 2023 19:31:42 GMT
Redfield Wilton Wales Westminster VI (16-17 September): Labour 44% (+3) Conservatives 22% (-2) Plaid Cymru 10% (-3) Liberal Democrat 9% (+2) Reform UK 7% (-4) Green 6% (+2) Other 1% (+1) Changes +/- 13-14 August Lib Dems ahead of Reform in Wales and only 1% behind Plaid? I’ll take that but I’m not sure that I believe it! |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,015
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 21, 2023 12:30:07 GMT
Well at least those figures are a bit more realistic overall, even given the above caveat.
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Post by andrewp on Oct 18, 2023 16:52:44 GMT
These changes are a bit ‘odd’- Redfield Wilton
Wales Westminster VI (14-15 October):
Labour 46% (+2)
Conservatives 26% (+4)
Plaid Cymru 10% (–)
Reform UK 10% (+3)
Green 4% (-2)
Liberal Democrat 3% (-6)
Other 0% (-1)
Changes +/- 16-17 September
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Post by andrewp on Oct 18, 2023 16:54:47 GMT
A bit of a hit for the Welsh Government in all these numbers
Senedd Constituency VI (14-15 Oct)
Labour 37% (-2)
Conservative 27% (–)
Plaid 18% (–)
Reform UK 6% (+3)
Abolish 5% (+4)
Lib Dem 4% (-1)
Green 3% (-3)
Other 0% (-1)
Changes +/- 16-17 Sept
Senedd Regional VI (14-15 October):
Labour 31% (-4)
Plaid Cymru 24% (+6)
Conservative 21% (–)
Reform UK 8% (+3)
Abolish 7% (+5)
Liberal Democrat 5% (-7)
Green 4% (-2)
Other 0% (-1)
Which of the following do Welsh voters think would be the better First Minister? (14-15 October)
Andrew RT Davies 34% (+4)
Mark Drakeford 33% (-11)
Changes +/- 16-17 September
Welsh Independence Referendum Voting Intention (14-15 October):
No, against Independence: 59% (+6)
Yes, for Independence: 31% (-2)
Don't know: 9% (-5)
Changes +/- 13-14 August
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Post by batman on Oct 18, 2023 17:31:08 GMT
There's an excellent Facebook page called Welsh Bollocks. The Westminster poll seems to be appropriate to be grouped with it. Of course the LDs have not lost 2/3 of their vote in the period since the last poll.
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Clark
Forum Regular
Posts: 747
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Post by Clark on Oct 18, 2023 18:20:44 GMT
Can't believe the Welsh Government has introduced these 20mph zones.
Attacking the motorist is never a sensible idea and a policy like this is sure to go down like a lead balloon.
To be honest, I'd have expected a bigger drop in support than this poll shows
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Oct 18, 2023 18:39:23 GMT
Can't believe the Welsh Government has introduced these 20mph zones. Attacking the motorist is never a sensible idea and a policy like this is sure to go down like a lead balloon. To be honest, I'd have expected a bigger drop in support than this poll shows The poll is flash in the pan stuff. In 2020 there were people saying Drakeford and Labour were finished as a result of strict covid restrictions when England was reopening, 12 months later he has an amazing election, this is the same but with 20mph. As for the 20mph zone the reporting is really sloppy - see the general Welsh thread for details. It’s not a blanket ban by any stretch of the imagination. Plenty of roads that were 30 are still 30. As a rule 20 is only in residential areas and near schools etc, lots of which were 20 anyway. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,015
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 19, 2023 12:23:52 GMT
R&W are getting a bit of a reputation as something of a random number generator at this point.
Are they trying to do too much, with a resulting drop in the quality of their samples?
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922 
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Oct 19, 2023 13:17:33 GMT
I will be plain about why I think this poll is rubbish. Abolish stood in one ward at the local elections and polled 430 votes in the Rhoose ward on Vale of Glamorgan (which elected two Con and an Ind) and were beaten by Plaid Cymru above them. If they have managed to recover to such a degree they can get 4% of the constituency vote (+2% on Senedd 2021) and 7% on the regional list (+3% on Senedd 2021) then I shall do a Lord Ashdown.
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Post by batman on Oct 19, 2023 13:37:37 GMT
you mean you will neither eat your hat, nor will you NOT eat your hat - but something in between.
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Oct 23, 2023 12:23:58 GMT
R&W are getting a bit of a reputation as something of a random number generator at this point. Are they trying to do too much, with a resulting drop in the quality of their samples? Has their polling figures ever been tested? Survation was very much the odd-man-out at the 2017 election and yet their figures were pretty much spot-on. |
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Post by kevinf on Oct 23, 2023 14:02:20 GMT
A bit of a hit for the Welsh Government in all these numbers Senedd Constituency VI (14-15 Oct) Labour 37% (-2) Conservative 27% (–) Plaid 18% (–) Reform UK 6% (+3) Abolish 5% (+4) Lib Dem 4% (-1) Green 3% (-3) Other 0% (-1) Changes +/- 16-17 Sept Senedd Regional VI (14-15 October): Labour 31% (-4) Plaid Cymru 24% (+6) Conservative 21% (–) Reform UK 8% (+3) Abolish 7% (+5) Liberal Democrat 5% (-7) Green 4% (-2) Other 0% (-1) Which of the following do Welsh voters think would be the better First Minister? (14-15 October) Andrew RT Davies 34% (+4) Mark Drakeford 33% (-11) Changes +/- 16-17 September Welsh Independence Referendum Voting Intention (14-15 October): No, against Independence: 59% (+6) Yes, for Independence: 31% (-2) Don't know: 9% (-5) Changes +/- 13-14 August Well, as Mark Drakeford won’t be standing, that’s another pointless bit of polling… |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Oct 23, 2023 14:40:20 GMT
Well, as Mark Drakeford won’t be standing, that’s another pointless bit of polling… I'll also bet Andrew RT Davies won't be leader of the Welsh Conservatives come 2026. |
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stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,399
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Post by stb12 on Oct 23, 2023 16:38:25 GMT
Well, as Mark Drakeford won’t be standing, that’s another pointless bit of polling… I'll also bet Andrew RT Davies won't be leader of the Welsh Conservatives come 2026. Are there moves against him in the offing? |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Oct 23, 2023 20:11:38 GMT
I'll also bet Andrew RT Davies won't be leader of the Welsh Conservatives come 2026. Are there moves against him in the offing? He was only brought back temporarily in the run up to 2021 when Paul Davies (no relation) was forced out. He faced grumblings over his position on Brexit which was one of the reasons he went in the first place. He’s had a stay of execution as a result of the very good 2021 Senedd result (cause and causation noted here). There’s also a fair bit of fresh blood on the Conservative benches some of whom are very eager for a stab at the leadership, plus RT has had some health issues. |
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
Posts: 3,598
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Post by cibwr on Oct 24, 2023 13:32:19 GMT
Well, as Mark Drakeford won’t be standing, that’s another pointless bit of polling… I'll also bet Andrew RT Davies won't be leader of the Welsh Conservatives come 2026. Who do you think will take over from him? |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Oct 24, 2023 13:38:21 GMT
I'll also bet Andrew RT Davies won't be leader of the Welsh Conservatives come 2026. Who do you think will take over from him? I dread to think, they could become even more populist and reactionary than their Westminster cousins (especially if Labour win in the next UK election) under the likes of James Evans or Joel James. The most sensible one in my book would be Laura Anne Jones. |
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
Posts: 3,598
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Post by cibwr on Oct 25, 2023 8:58:48 GMT
Maybe we should start a thread on possible leadership election for the Conservatives in the Senedd
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