The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 22, 2023 10:14:54 GMT
This poll suggests Labour are basically doing no better in Wales than in England, that alone makes it suspect.
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Post by grahammurray on Jun 22, 2023 14:08:13 GMT
This poll suggests Labour are basically doing no better in Wales than in England, that alone makes it suspect. The alternative is that this poll shows Labour doing no worse in England than in Wales so the national ones are suspect.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jun 22, 2023 18:42:45 GMT
Senedd figures from the same poll
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,729
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 23, 2023 11:00:26 GMT
This poll suggests Labour are basically doing no better in Wales than in England, that alone makes it suspect. The alternative is that this poll shows Labour doing no worse in England than in Wales so the national ones are suspect. You can believe that if you want, but like most "alternative" explanations it has the vast bulk of the actual evidence against it. Not unlike "Russia is decisively winning in Ukraine" really
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Post by grahammurray on Jun 23, 2023 12:30:08 GMT
The alternative is that this poll shows Labour doing no worse in England than in Wales so the national ones are suspect. You can believe that if you want, but like most "alternative" explanations it has the vast bulk of the actual evidence against it. Not unlike "Russia is decisively winning in Ukraine" really I didn't say I believed it just that it's an alternative explanation. Allthough it probably holds slightly more water than people who dismiss a poll because they don't like the findings
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 23, 2023 13:09:10 GMT
But that wasn't what happened, as opposed to a totally valid observation it doesn't fit with not just GB-wide surveys but *other Welsh polling*?
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maxque
Non-Aligned
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Post by maxque on Jun 23, 2023 14:59:26 GMT
You can believe that if you want, but like most "alternative" explanations it has the vast bulk of the actual evidence against it. Not unlike "Russia is decisively winning in Ukraine" really I didn't say I believed it just that it's an alternative explanation. Allthough it probably holds slightly more water than people who dismiss a poll because they don't like the findings There is generalised overpolling of Reform/UKIP in Welsh polling. Last Senedd election, Reform got 1.6%. Every single poll had them higher than that.
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
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Post by cibwr on Jul 20, 2023 18:24:01 GMT
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Post by swanarcadian on Aug 16, 2023 16:27:19 GMT
Westminster, Redfield & Wilton, 13-14 August
Lab 41 -5 Con 24 = PC 13 +3 Reform 11 +1 LD 7 = Green 4 +1
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Post by swanarcadian on Aug 16, 2023 16:36:42 GMT
Senedd - constituencies
Lab 37 -5 Con 21 -1 PC 20 +4 Reform 9 +2 LD 6 = Green 3 =
Senedd - regions
Lab 31 -2 PC 22 +3 Con 19 -1 LD 10 = Reform 10 +2 Green 6 =
13-14 August, Redfield & Wilton
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Post by Penddu on Aug 17, 2023 4:24:19 GMT
From the same poll, support for Independence is 33%; 56% against. If dont knows are excluded this is 38.4% for which is one of the highest figures recorded and consistent with steadily increasing support.
The Welsh tortoise is catching the Scottish hare
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Post by Penddu on Aug 17, 2023 4:26:46 GMT
But this also shows that not all indy minded voters are willing to vote Plaid - and are probably voting 'Welsh' Labour instead.
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Aug 17, 2023 7:21:23 GMT
Westminster, Redfield & Wilton, 13-14 August Lab 41 -5 Con 24 = PC 13 +3 Reform 11 +1 LD 7 = Green 4 +1 Forecast Seats on unoffical notionals: Lab 24 (+6), Con 4 (-8), Plaid 4 (+2) Conservatives HOLD Mid and South Pembrokeshire (3% over Lab), Monmouthshire (4% over Lab), Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr (17% over Lab) and Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe (5% over Lib Dems)
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,814
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Aug 17, 2023 7:28:49 GMT
Senedd - constituencies Lab 37 -5 Con 21 -1 PC 20 +4 Reform 9 +2 LD 6 = Green 3 = Senedd - regions Lab 31 -2 PC 22 +3 Con 19 -1 LD 10 = Reform 10 +2 Green 6 = 13-14 August, Redfield & Wilton On the understanding that this electoral method will be abolished by 2026 Constituencies: Lab 28 (+1), Con 7 (-1), Plaid 5 (unchanged) Regionals: Lab 1, Plaid 6, Lib Dem 4, Con 4, Reform 5 Totals: Lab 29, Plaid 11, Con 11, Reform 5, Lib Dem 4
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Post by Penddu on Aug 17, 2023 17:35:52 GMT
There is no way that Reform will get 10%ish - probably nearer 3-4%. The only question is whether they will vote in Senedd election or whether they will vote someone else.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Aug 17, 2023 18:54:44 GMT
It is fairly clear that Redfield & Wilton do not know what they are doing and should cease polling Wales.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 18, 2023 9:38:09 GMT
There must have been at least a bit of a temptation not to add the word "Wales" there.
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Post by batman on Aug 18, 2023 10:16:57 GMT
Welsh polls often paint a picture of Labour doing worse than actually eventuates in elections, though not in 2019. I must say I rarely pay that much attention to them; most UK-wide polls seem to have a rather better track record.
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Sept 13, 2023 17:44:11 GMT
Welsh Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 50% (+1) CON: 19% (=) PLC: 12% (+2) RFM: 8% (-1) LDM: 5% (-3) GRN: 5% (+1)
Via @yougov, 1-6 Sep. Changes w/ 12-17 May.
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Post by london(ex)tory on Sept 14, 2023 8:47:26 GMT
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