cibwr
Plaid Cymru
Posts: 3,558
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Post by cibwr on Apr 21, 2023 8:09:10 GMT
This is much more in line with what we would expect from the independence question. Would be interesting to see what the results projected on a 96 seat Senedd would be.
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Post by Penddu on Apr 21, 2023 16:49:18 GMT
This is much more in line with what we would expect from the independence question. Would be interesting to see what the results projected on a 96 seat Senedd would be. I saw a Tweet earlier which had Labour on 51 seats - Plaid on I think 18, Con 16.. I think. But with lots of assumptions about voting system etc
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
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Post by clyde1998 on Apr 21, 2023 18:18:51 GMT
This is much more in line with what we would expect from the independence question. Would be interesting to see what the results projected on a 96 seat Senedd would be. I saw a Tweet earlier which had Labour on 51 seats - Plaid on I think 18, Con 16.. I think. But with lots of assumptions about voting system etc I guess they're assuming the transfers if the 2026 election is held via STV, as there's no sign of a second preference question in the poll.
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myth11
Non-Aligned
too busy at work!
Posts: 2,745
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Post by myth11 on Apr 21, 2023 18:55:08 GMT
This is much more in line with what we would expect from the independence question. Would be interesting to see what the results projected on a 96 seat Senedd would be. There is 9 point gap between labour,s Constituency and list polls which is important as 40% under the current vote divide will get you roughly 3 to 4 seats per Constituency under the proposed system while 30% is likely to get you 2 seats. In very simple terms. lab 41/20.5/13.67 con 21/10.5 PC 20 The last seat likely decided by not a lot. lab 32/16 pc 23/11.5 con 22/11
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
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Post by clyde1998 on Apr 21, 2023 19:18:31 GMT
This is much more in line with what we would expect from the independence question. Would be interesting to see what the results projected on a 96 seat Senedd would be. There is 9 point gap between labour,s Constituency and list polls which is important as 40% under the current vote divide will get you roughly 3 to 4 seats per Constituency under the proposed system while 30% is likely to get you 2 seats. In very simple terms. lab 41/20.5/13.67 con 21/10.5 PC 20 The last seat likely decided by not a lot. lab 32/16 pc 23/11.5 con 22/11 Is there a proposed list of combined constituencies that would be used yet?
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Apr 21, 2023 19:41:40 GMT
Is there a proposed list of combined constituencies that would be used yet? Nothing yet. It’ll be very interesting when the pairings get proposed/announced.
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Post by Penddu on Apr 24, 2023 7:30:24 GMT
There is 9 point gap between labour,s Constituency and list polls which is important as 40% under the current vote divide will get you roughly 3 to 4 seats per Constituency under the proposed system while 30% is likely to get you 2 seats. In very simple terms. lab 41/20.5/13.67 con 21/10.5 PC 20 The last seat likely decided by not a lot. lab 32/16 pc 23/11.5 con 22/11 Is there a proposed list of combined constituencies that would be used yet? No - but it is not difficult to work out likely pairings - starting in the north, there are 8 seats (inc new Mongomeryshire Glyndwr). Option A is join Ynys Mon with Gwynedd - then circle around pairing as you go. Option B is join Ynys Mon with Bangor Aberconwy then repeat. Option A looks more likely. Dyfed has 4 seats which pair up naturally. The south depends on what you do with Brecon Cwm Tawe - if it goes with Monmouthshire then everything pairs one way.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Apr 26, 2023 9:42:04 GMT
I’ve been looking at the map too. There’ll never be a perfect pairing of seats, but I’ve done my best to have a stab and this avoids pairing a largely urban seat with a rural seat – this does of course mean pairing two rural seats together making some truly gigantic geographical seats (but avoiding the extremes), but still smaller than the current Mid and West Region. I started by paring Ynys Mon (32) with Bangor Aberconwy (3) as the best starting point in my view, I would then pair Clwyd North (15) with Clwyd East (14) meaning that Alyn and Deeside (2) and Wrexham (31) would need to be paired. Should you choose to amend this and pair Ynys Mon (32) with Dwyfor Meirionnydd (16) you’ll be forced to pair Wrexham with Montgomeryshire Glyndwr or Clwyd East, both which I think would be unenviable.
Moving south into mid Wales I would suggest: Dwyfor Meirionnydd (16) and Montgomeryshire Glyndwr (22) Ceredigion Preseli (13) and Mid and South Pembrokeshire (20) Carmarthen (7) and Llanelli (18)
Which leaves… Brecon, Radnor and Cwm-tawe (5) with Neath and Swansea East (23) – This is by far the one I’m most uncomfortable with, but I think there is merit given the geographical direction the old/current B&R Seat has been expanded. There really is no pretty way of pairing this seat up. If you went North you’d get a seat touching Neath in the south and Wrexham in the North, if you paired it with Monmouth you’d have a new seat/pair of seats that included both Chepstow and Pontardawe which isn’t ideal either.By pairing 5 and 23 that neatly leaves Gower and Swansea West (17) and Swansea Central and North (28) being matched. Pairing 5 and 32 together, makes the rest of south Wales easier (although of course there are plenty of other possibilities): Aberfan Porthcawl (1) and Bridgend (6) Merthyr Tydfil and Upper Cynon (19) and Rhondda (27) Pontypridd (26) and Vale of Glamorgan (30), again not ideal, but where else does the Vale go?Cardiff West (12) and Cardiff South & Penarth (11) Cardiff North (10) and Cardiff East (9) (I was keen to match the four Cardiff seats into 2 pairs, but this isn’t essential)Caerphilly (8) and Newport West and Islwyn (28) Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney (4) and Torfaen (29) Monmouthshire (21) and Newport East (24)
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 26, 2023 16:55:06 GMT
The Brecon & Radnor?neath seat is awful but I agree the alternatives are probably worse and its the only one that is. Could you not avoid splitting Newport though? (have 24/25; 21/29; 4/8) ?
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Post by Penddu on Apr 27, 2023 15:39:46 GMT
However you pair Brecon it is going to be awful. My personal preference (least awful alternative) is with Monmouth.
The only saving grace is this will be for one electoral cycle only following which the Westminster constituency will be dropped and we can restore some sanity.
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Post by Penddu on May 17, 2023 17:57:30 GMT
Labour leads by 15% in constituency VI for a Senedd election.
Senedd Constituency VI (14-15 May): Redfield & Wilton
Labour 38% (-3) Conservative 23% (+2) Plaid Cymru 20% (–) Reform UK 7% (-1) Liberal Democrat 7% (+2) Green 3% (-1) Other 2% (–)
Changes +/- 15-17
Labour leads by 6% in regional list VI for a Senedd election.
Senedd Regional VI (14-15 May):
Labour 30% (-2) Plaid Cymru 24% (+1) Conservative 21% (-1) Liberal Democrat 10% (+2) Reform UK 8% (+1) Green 4% (-3) Other 4% (+2)
Changes +/- 15-17 April
'No' leads by 26 points.
Welsh Independence Referendum Voting Intention (14-15 May): No, against Independence: 58% (-2) Yes, for Independence: 32% (+3) Don't Know: 11% (–)
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,814
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Post by Harry Hayfield on May 18, 2023 18:13:52 GMT
Labour leads by 15% in constituency VI for a Senedd election. Senedd Constituency VI (14-15 May): Redfield & Wilton Labour 38% (-3) Conservative 23% (+2) Plaid Cymru 20% (–) Reform UK 7% (-1) Liberal Democrat 7% (+2) Green 3% (-1) Other 2% (–) Changes +/- 15-17 Labour leads by 6% in regional list VI for a Senedd election. Senedd Regional VI (14-15 May): Labour 30% (-2) Plaid Cymru 24% (+1) Conservative 21% (-1) Liberal Democrat 10% (+2) Reform UK 8% (+1) Green 4% (-3) Other 4% (+2) Forecast on Current Senedd size and boundariesConstituencies: Lab 28 (+1), Con 7 (-1), Plaid 5 (unchanged) Regional List: Plaid 9 (+1), Con 8 (unchanged), Lab 2 (-1), Lib Dem 1 (unchanged) Overall: Lab 30 (unchanged), Con 15 (-1), Plaid 14 (+1), Lib Dem 1 (unchanged)
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Post by Penddu on May 19, 2023 3:22:30 GMT
I didnt copy the seat forecast because the next election will see a completely different election method - with 96 seats elected from 16 unconfirmed pairs of constituencies under a not fully defined voting system.
I have a model but there are so many assumptions it is largely guesswork.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on May 21, 2023 14:36:21 GMT
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Post by Penddu on May 21, 2023 16:52:40 GMT
Very poor for Conservatives - not good for Plaid but assuming this is a short term blip due to their current leadership woes, then they should recover in the summer.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jun 21, 2023 16:09:18 GMT
Absolutely no way this Reform figure is true
Westminster VI
Lab - 43 (-) Con - 22 (-1) Ref - 12 (+3) PC -10 (-1) LD - 8 (-1) Gr - 4 (-) Other -1 (-)
(Changes from 14-15 May)
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,529
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Post by johng on Jun 21, 2023 16:34:36 GMT
Absolutely no way this Reform figure is true
Absolutely not. There's no reason at all for the party to be doing better than current UK polls.
There seems to be a small, but consistent, issue with right-wing parties doing well in Welsh polls and not meeting those expectations in reality.
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Post by finsobruce on Jun 21, 2023 18:00:27 GMT
Absolutely no way this Reform figure is true
Absolutely not. There's no reason at all for the party to be doing better than current UK polls.
There seems to be a small, but consistent, issue with right-wing parties doing well in Welsh polls and not meeting those expectations in reality. What might this issue be do you think? *
*genuine question, as the kids say.
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Sg1
Conservative
Posts: 834
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Post by Sg1 on Jun 21, 2023 21:57:05 GMT
I also doubt that Labour are only up 2 percent on 2019 in Wales. Take 9% from Reform and give it to Labour and that seems about right.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jun 22, 2023 8:15:44 GMT
Absolutely not. There's no reason at all for the party to be doing better than current UK polls.
There seems to be a small, but consistent, issue with right-wing parties doing well in Welsh polls and not meeting those expectations in reality. What might this issue be do you think? * *genuine question, as the kids say.
I honestly don't know. Shy Tories wanting to admit to something more palatable that voting Conservative? Reform are always high in YouGov's Welsh polls and I always put it down to YouGov prompting the name, but it is indeed odd that two pollsters have now picked this up. FWIW Reform have no ground game in Wales, no media presence and to the best of my knowledge no candidates. In 2021 they managed to finish behind UKIP on the regional vote (the only true comparison has they both had a full quota of candidates), although they did beat UKIP in the total FPTP vote due to candidate numbers. These pols might prompt the party to field candidates in all 32 which could see them get an average of (sticks finger in the air) 4-5% across the nation.
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