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Post by batman on Feb 13, 2023 15:42:34 GMT
Sorry argauer I just saw your comment, you've said what I said mostly
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Feb 13, 2023 17:32:46 GMT
The relative lack of a Welsh Media (compared to Scotland and Northern Ireland) doesn’t help either.
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Sibboleth
Labour
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Post by Sibboleth on Feb 13, 2023 17:38:30 GMT
Why do people think the Scottish working class largely abandoned Labour for the SNP but the same phenomenon didn't happen in Wales with PC? Wales isn't Scotland but smaller. People seem to struggle to understand this, but it's true, believe me, it's true.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Feb 13, 2023 20:34:45 GMT
And Plaid just aren’t good at campaigning. You might disagree with the SNP and the independence movement but they know what they’re doing when it comes to Comms/Message and their GOTV opps.
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maxque
Non-Aligned
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Post by maxque on Feb 14, 2023 0:14:15 GMT
Could the Clear Red Water (and the distance between Welsh Labour and Blair Labour) have anything to do with it?
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Feb 14, 2023 0:42:47 GMT
Could the Clear Red Water (and the distance between Welsh Labour and Blair Labour) have anything to do with it? The left right scale has nothing to do with it, but yes, Welsh Labour’s distinctive identity clearly stunts potential Plaid growth. Somewhat ironically, I think part of Labour’s success here has been in the lack of success of their MPs. No doubt someone will be along with a glaringly obvious example, but I really struggle (somewhat incredibly given the historical pedigree) to think of a single notable Welsh Labour MP in the post devolution era. That allowed the party space to create its own brand, whereas creating a distinctive Scottish brand was always going to be pretty tough when the national party was led by Gordon Brown, Robin Cook, Alistair Darling, etc, etc.
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Post by batman on Feb 14, 2023 8:23:43 GMT
Owen Smith was high-profile, albeit not for long.
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Post by london(ex)tory on Feb 14, 2023 10:39:23 GMT
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 14, 2023 11:20:01 GMT
Could the Clear Red Water (and the distance between Welsh Labour and Blair Labour) have anything to do with it? It is very possibly a minor factor, but no more than that. Let's not forget a Labour party that was very much left wing still got slaughtered in Scotland come 2019.
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Feb 14, 2023 11:40:24 GMT
Owen Smith was high-profile, albeit not for long. I'm not convinced he was terribly high profile to be honest - but in any case, it was in opposition to the leadership, which adds to my point.
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Post by Penddu on Feb 28, 2023 2:44:52 GMT
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Feb 28, 2023 5:19:01 GMT
Westminster:
Labour: 53% Conservative: 19% Plaid Cymru: 12% Reform UK: 8% Lib Dem: 4% Green: 3% Other: 1%
On current boundaries it gives Labour 35 seats, Plaid 3 and Conservatives 2.
No Senedd numbers (yet)
The WalesOnline/YouGov poll used a sample size of 1,083 of adults in Wales (16+) who were questioned between February 17-23, 2023. Results weighted by likelihood to vote, excluding those who would not vote, don't know, or refused, and excluding 16-17 year olds this week.
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Post by Penddu on Feb 28, 2023 10:24:54 GMT
In the article it says that further poll data will be released later this week - presumably Senedd voting & Indy.
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clyde1998
SNP
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Post by clyde1998 on Mar 1, 2023 2:54:56 GMT
Westminster: Labour: 53% Conservative: 19% Plaid Cymru: 12% Reform UK: 8% Lib Dem: 4% Green: 3% Other: 1% On current boundaries it gives Labour 35 seats, Plaid 3 and Conservatives 2. No Senedd numbers (yet) The WalesOnline/YouGov poll used a sample size of 1,083 of adults in Wales (16+) who were questioned between February 17-23, 2023. Results weighted by likelihood to vote, excluding those who would not vote, don't know, or refused, and excluding 16-17 year olds this week. Looking at the crosstabs, a full 28% of 2019 Plaid voters say they'll vote Labour, while 19% of Conservative voters are switching to Labour (12% to Reform).
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Mar 1, 2023 8:56:24 GMT
Welsh independence headline figures:
Should Wales be an independent country?
Yes: 18% No: 55% D/K: 27%
1,083 adults in Wales (16+), February 17-23, 2023.
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clyde1998
SNP
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Post by clyde1998 on Mar 1, 2023 19:09:12 GMT
Welsh independence headline figures: Should Wales be an independent country? Yes: 18% No: 55% D/K: 27% 1,083 adults in Wales (16+), February 17-23, 2023. The lowest level of support in a single YouGov poll since December 2019, I believe. Will be interesting to see if this is an outlier or the start of a trend.
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Post by Penddu on Mar 2, 2023 3:09:07 GMT
Welsh independence headline figures: Should Wales be an independent country? Yes: 18% No: 55% D/K: 27% 1,083 adults in Wales (16+), February 17-23, 2023. The lowest level of support in a single YouGov poll since December 2019, I believe. Will be interesting to see if this is an outlier or the start of a trend. I think the answer is both - This poll does seem to be a bit out of line on voting intention generally. I believe that the Indy support has fallen back from its peak during the covid period , and the lunacy of Boris and Truss - and is now somewhere around 25-30%. This is still a huge improvement on the 5-10% range of a few years ago, and even in this poll the No figure of 55% is hardly a ringing endorsement of the Union. I expect the Yes vote to consolidate around 25-30% for a few years but more importantly this support to become more embedded. Future events will push this level back up again...but we will have to wait for SNP situation to stabilise first.
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Post by london(ex)tory on Mar 6, 2023 17:01:23 GMT
Any sign of senedd vi figures from this poll yet?
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Apr 20, 2023 16:07:03 GMT
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clyde1998
SNP
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Post by clyde1998 on Apr 20, 2023 16:16:14 GMT
Senedd Constituency
Lab 41 (+1 on 2021)
Con 21 (-5)
PC 20 (n/c)
RUK 8 (+6)
LDm 5 (n/c)
Grn 4 (+2)
Oth 2 (-4)
Senedd List Lab 32 (-4 on 2021)
PC 23 (+3)
Con 22 (-3)
LDm 8 (+4)
RUK 7 (+6)
Grn 7 (+3)
Oth 2 (-6)
Lab 30 (nc) PC 13 (nc) Con 12 (-4)
LDm 2 (+1) Grn 2 (+2) RUK 1 (+1)
Should there be a Welsh Parliament? Yes 63 (72 without DKs)
No 25 (28)
Should Wales be an independent country? Yes 29 (33 without DKs)
No 60 (67)
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