clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
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Post by clyde1998 on Sept 28, 2022 8:39:54 GMT
Welsh Westminster VI Conservative - 23% (-3) Labour - 46% (+5) Liberal Democrats - 5% (-2) Plaid Cymru - 15% (-1) Reform - 5% (+1) Green - 3% (-1) Others - 3% (+1) Welsh Parliament VI Conservative - 20% (- 4) Labour - 40% (+ 3) Liberal Democrats - 6% (NC) Plaid Cymru - 22% (+ 1) Reform - 5% (NC) Green - 4% (-2) Others - 3% There seems to have only been one question for the Senedd Q, possibly anticipating a change of voting system. There is a list question: Lab 37 (+6 on June) PC 21 (-3) Con 18 (-3) AWA 7 (+1) Grn 5 (-1) LDm 5 (nc) RUK 4 (+1) UKIP 2 (nc) Gwlad 0 (-1) Propel 0 (nc) Oth 1 (nc) Independence: Yes 24 (-1); No 52 (+2) Abolish the Senedd: Yes 26 (+1), No 46 (-2)
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Post by willpower3 on Sept 28, 2022 8:58:01 GMT
If AWA were of any use or competence it would be polling three or four times what it currently is.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,309
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 28, 2022 10:19:51 GMT
Why?
For all that people grumble about the assembly, support for its abolition is confined to a hard core of (mostly) right wingers.
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nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
Posts: 4,004
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Sept 28, 2022 11:15:32 GMT
Why? For all that people grumble about the assembly, support for its abolition is confined to a hard core of (mostly) right wingers, I used to support it no longer
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,484
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Post by johng on Sept 29, 2022 4:21:20 GMT
If AWA were of any use or competence it would be polling three or four times what it currently is. I have to say, I am skeptical on Yougov's polling for AWAP. Their eve of the 21 election poll had them on 7%. Every YG poll in the 6 months before that election had them on 7-9% and ahead of both the Greens and Lib Dems.
In reality, they got 3.7% and came in sixth place.
The limited post-election polling has basically given the same numbers to those three parties. Now, their support could have, of course, increased. However, there is no reason I can see for AWAP's vote to go above the 3.7% they got back in May 21. This poll was conducted pre-budget remember.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Sept 29, 2022 9:05:15 GMT
I have to say, I am skeptical on Yougov's polling for AWAP. Likewise for Reform.
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,484
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Post by johng on Sept 29, 2022 9:38:42 GMT
I have to say, I am skeptical on Yougov's polling for AWAP. Likewise for Reform. Yes. Every poll in the six months before the election gave them double what they actually got and a couple of post-election ones have seen their polling numbers increase. Whilst, in reality, ReformUK is basically dead at the moment. They are not getting 7% and beating the Greens and Lib Dems as one poll suggested.
Sadly, Yougov is the only pollster who regularly does Welsh polls. We were lucky in 2021 to get a couple of Savantas and an Opinium, but that is not normal. Even ICM's annual poll for BBC Wales seems to have stopped after over a decade with there being no 2022 edition.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Dec 4, 2022 15:11:49 GMT
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Post by batman on Dec 4, 2022 17:45:49 GMT
Comes as something of a surprise that Arfon stays Plaid, but it is correct, as Plaid's vote is up on 2019 as well as Labour's & the swing from the former to the latter is slightly smaller than that needed to win Arfon.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,233
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Post by Sibboleth on Dec 4, 2022 18:02:13 GMT
That would equate to no seats for the Conservatives on the proposed new map.
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
Posts: 3,557
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Post by cibwr on Dec 9, 2022 11:35:35 GMT
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jan 11, 2023 10:54:06 GMT
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
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Post by clyde1998 on Jan 12, 2023 10:01:04 GMT
Full tables: linkWestminster (25 Nov-1 Dec 2022)Lab 51 (+5 on 20-22 Sep) Con 18 (-5) Plaid 13 (-2) RUK 8 (+3) LDm 4 (-1) Grn 4 (+1) Oth 2 (-1) Senedd ConstituencyLab 44 (+4) Plaid 20 (-2) Con 17 (-3) RUK 7 (+2) LDm 6 (nc) Grn 3 (nc) Oth 4 (nc) Senedd ListLab 38 (+1) Plaid 23 (+2) Con 16 (-2) AWA 8 (+1) Grn 5 (nc) LDm 4 (-1) RUK 4 (nc) UKIP 2 (nc) Gwlad 1 (+1) Propel 0 (nc) Oth 1 (nc)
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Post by andrewp on Feb 13, 2023 13:42:07 GMT
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Post by Clark on Feb 13, 2023 14:17:00 GMT
Why do people think the Scottish working class largely abandoned Labour for the SNP but the same phenomenon didn't happen in Wales with PC?
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Post by carlton43 on Feb 13, 2023 14:25:54 GMT
Why do people think the Scottish working class largely abandoned Labour for the SNP but the same phenomenon didn't happen in Wales with PC? Lack of clarity, precision and focus with objectives. A nagging internal doubt that an independent country could succeed. A nagging doubt that they could actually run a country at all. Rather poor quality MPs most of the time.
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pl
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,561
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Post by pl on Feb 13, 2023 14:57:35 GMT
Why do people think the Scottish working class largely abandoned Labour for the SNP but the same phenomenon didn't happen in Wales with PC? 1. Scotland has always been more distinct from England than Wales is from England (despite the language issue). Wales and England share a legal system, education system, banknotes etc 2. The working class in North Wales has far stronger links with England (Liverpool and Manchester predominantly) than their Scottish counterparts 3. Plaid got caught up in the language issue, which makes them less accessible to the English speaking working class than the SNP is to the Scottish working class 4. The SNP has a mission, a raison d'etre (independence) which Plaid is lacking. This allows the SNP to become populists in a way that Plaid never could 5. Pure political chance. The SNP caught the zeitgeist, Plaid didn't
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Post by aargauer on Feb 13, 2023 15:00:19 GMT
Language too. Non-Welsh speakers feeling that PC is a Welsh language speakers party.
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Post by swanseaoptimist on Feb 13, 2023 15:20:00 GMT
Language too. Non-Welsh speakers feeling that PC is a Welsh language speakers party. Yes. Plaid dominate in Welsh-language areas but struggle in English-speaking areas.
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Post by batman on Feb 13, 2023 15:42:02 GMT
Why do people think the Scottish working class largely abandoned Labour for the SNP but the same phenomenon didn't happen in Wales with PC? Lack of clarity, precision and focus with objectives. A nagging internal doubt that an independent country could succeed. A nagging doubt that they could actually run a country at all. Rather poor quality MPs most of the time. that's basically mostly true. There is also perhaps a doubt as to what Plaid really are after. At least the SNP are open in calling for independence. There seems to be a reluctance on the part of Plaid to say what their constitutional objectives are, and that possibly doesn't help them. But also, whereas the SNP has never been regarded as a Gaelic-speaking fringe party, Plaid Cymru has always been regarded as the party most specifically of Welsh-speakers; and that doesn't help in the areas where Labour is strongest, with the almost sole exception of the Llanelli constituency, and even there Plaid is not currently challenging for the Westminster seat. Their change of party name to be bilingual (Plaid Cymru - the Party of Wales) may help a bit, but that's surely the perception they have, that they're the party mostly campaigning on Welsh language issues which matter little to voters in the Valleys & the largest cities, which is where the great majority of Welsh voters actually live.
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