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Post by hullenedge on Nov 8, 2024 19:26:37 GMT
Welsh Senedd Voting Intention: LAB: 30% (-6) PLC: 21% (=) REF: 20% (+19) CON: 17% (-8) LDM: 6% (+2) GRN: 5% (+1) (Survation) Poor performance from Plaid. Reform are taking votes from Labour that Plaid would hope for. Sorry that I can't locate but earlier today a Senedd forecast was posted on Twitter. Two coalitions passed 49 seats - Lab+PC or PC+Ref+Con (v.unlikely). |
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Nov 8, 2024 19:28:41 GMT
Welsh Senedd Voting Intention: LAB: 30% (-6) PLC: 21% (=) REF: 20% (+19) CON: 17% (-8) LDM: 6% (+2) GRN: 5% (+1) (Survation) Poor performance from Plaid. Reform are taking votes from Labour that Plaid would hope for. I think it's that Reform are actually doing a better job of identifying the values of traditional Labour voters in the South (outside middle-class parts of Cardiff and Swansea). Plaid Cymru inhabit Leanne Wood's old students' union rather too much, coming up with a brand of left-wing politics that is elitist and out-of-touch. Reform face an uphill battle, certainly, but Plaid Cymru really need to give their heads a wobble. |
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Post by Merseymike on Nov 8, 2024 19:34:29 GMT
Poor performance from Plaid. Reform are taking votes from Labour that Plaid would hope for. I think it's that Reform are actually doing a better job of identifying the values of traditional Labour voters in the South (outside middle-class parts of Cardiff and Swansea). Plaid Cymru inhabit Leanne Wood's old students' union rather too much, coming up with a brand of left-wing politics that is elitist and out-of-touch. Reform face an uphill battle, certainly, but Plaid Cymru really need to give their heads a wobble. "Traditional Labour Voters" = Right-wing |
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Post by Penddu on Nov 9, 2024 12:40:59 GMT
Plaid screwed up in the Valleys by trying to be more left wing than Labour. There is a large centre-right vote in the Valleys but who cannot bring themselves to vote Tory.
These voters have toyed with Plaid, Forward Wales, Brexit, UKIP and now Reform - even occasionally considering LDs but never Tories.
Plaid could pick up lots of these votes if they can distance themselves from Labour
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 10, 2024 10:52:22 GMT
Was a tad puzzled by the changes in the above poll, but they are actually with the last Senedd election in 2021. That could have been made a bit clearer.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Nov 10, 2024 14:43:36 GMT
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Post by hullenedge on Nov 16, 2024 17:07:50 GMT
SFL is quoting a Survation poll for Westminster elections:-
Lab 33 (-4)
Ref 21 (+4)
Con 18
PC 13 (-2)
LD. 9 (+3)
Green 5
Trust that this is a full poll and not sub.
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Post by Penddu on Dec 1, 2024 8:26:01 GMT
Latest Senedd polling apparently has Plaid in first place...followed by Labour,then Reform then Tories. I dont have detailed numbers ...yet...
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
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Post by cibwr on Dec 1, 2024 8:27:16 GMT
nation.cymru/news/plaid-cymru-leads-new-senedd-poll-with-conservatives-in-4th-place/A new Senedd voting intention poll puts Plaid Cymru in the lead for the first time since 2010, with Welsh Labour tying for second place with Reform UK. The latest Barn Cymru poll carried out by YouGov for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre, predicts Plaid Cymru would be ahead by one point with 24% of the vote, with Welsh Labour and Reform UK both on 23%. Senedd voting intention: Plaid Cymru – 24% (+1) Labour – 23% (-4) Reform UK – 23% (+5) Conservative – 19% (+1) Lib Dem – 5% (-1) Green – 6% (+1) Other – 1% (-2) Barn Cymru is a collaborative partnership between ITV Cymru Wales, the Wales Governance Centre at Cardiff University, and the leading polling agency YouGov. The new YouGov poll quizzed a representative sample of 1,121 Welsh voters, aged 16+, between November 25 – 29 for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University.
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Post by london(ex)tory on Dec 1, 2024 8:31:27 GMT
Remarkable!
Does it include Westminster VI figures as well?
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
Posts: 3,598
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Post by cibwr on Dec 1, 2024 8:52:21 GMT
Remarkable! Does it include Westminster VI figures as well? Not yet - though I gather they will be forthcoming eventually. |
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Post by Penddu on Dec 1, 2024 14:23:37 GMT
This would result in seats something like:
- Green 1+/-1
- LD 2+/-1
- Con 18 +/-2
- Ref 22 +/-2
- PC 24 +/-2
- Lab 26 +/-2
Difficult to see anything except a Lab/PC coalition...
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
Posts: 3,598
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Post by cibwr on Dec 1, 2024 14:31:53 GMT
Not sure how you get those figures, depends on the constituency breakdown, my guess is no Greens and two Lib Dems if they work hard on two constituencies. And a toss up on who comes first between Plaid and Labour depending on the vote spread.
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Post by Penddu on Dec 1, 2024 15:24:29 GMT
Not sure how you get those figures, depends on the constituency breakdown, my guess is no Greens and two Lib Dems if they work hard on two constituencies. And a toss up on who comes first between Plaid and Labour depending on the vote spread. I have a simple model - which I will refine once the constituencies are settled. The first 5 seats in each constituency should be reasonably clear - but the sixth seat is most difficult to predict... Because of the new voting system, and based on this poll... Conservatives and Reform should both get 16 seats minimum Plaid should get 20 seats minimum Labour 24 seats minimum After that it is a bun fight for remaining 20 seats - with LD and Green joining in |
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
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Post by cibwr on Dec 2, 2024 10:49:19 GMT
Some Reform people are saying this puts Reform on 30 seats and Plaid and Labour on 25. Not sure how they calculate that.
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pl
Non-Aligned
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Post by pl on Dec 2, 2024 11:08:15 GMT
Some Reform people are saying this puts Reform on 30 seats and Plaid and Labour on 25. Not sure how they calculate that. It must be nice to live in fantasy land.... |
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Post by johnloony on Dec 2, 2024 11:12:47 GMT
Some Reform people are saying this puts Reform on 30 seats and Plaid and Labour on 25. Not sure how they calculate that. It would be theoretically possible, with a very tightly-contrived distribution of votes in different constituencies, but it’s completely unrealistic in practice. e.g. If Reform had 1 vote more than Labour & PC in 5 constituencies, with that 1 vote being enough to make the difference between n+1 seats and n seats in each one, and then if Labour and PC have substantial leads over Reform in other constituencies which are not quite big enough to make the difference between n and n+1. |
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 2, 2024 11:20:55 GMT
Yes, is "some Reform people talk bollix" really a surprise?
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Post by Penddu on Dec 2, 2024 13:25:19 GMT
For sake of discussion, what if this poll results in say,
Plaid 25 seats
Labour 23 seats
Reform 24 seats
Conservative 21 seats
LDs 3 seats
We could have a Plaid-Lab coalition or a Reform-Conservative-LD coalition, or a Plaid-Ref or Con -LD coalition
Question - how much popcorn should I buy...
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Dec 2, 2024 14:00:26 GMT
For sake of discussion, what if this poll results in say, Plaid 25 seats Labour 23 seats Reform 24 seats Conservative 21 seats LDs 3 seats We could have a Plaid-Lab coalition or a Reform-Conservative-LD coalition, or a Plaid-Ref or Con -LD coalition Question - how much popcorn should I buy... Well the Lib Dems aren’t going to go into coalition with Reform so you can bash that one on the head, ditto the Conservatives in their current right wing state. I could possibly see the Lib Dems joining force with Labour and Plaid/Plaid and Labour in a “traffic light” coalition which would be an anyone but Con/Reform block. Question, will Plaid join a government if they’re not the largest party? |
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