Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,372
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Post by Sibboleth on Feb 17, 2016 16:52:46 GMT
In no seat at the GE did they poll more than 20% so that question isn't really one that can be answered.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Feb 29, 2016 11:15:10 GMT
All of UKIPs seats will be list seats.
I can't see them not getting one in each region. Their weakest region in South Wales Central.
South Wales East and North Wales should be the obvious seats for them to potentially pick up two, but Mid and West could easily go 2 Labour and 2 UKIP as it's the only region where the Conservatives, Plaid and the Lib Dems could pick up FPTP seats.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Mar 22, 2016 10:20:50 GMT
YouGov Constituency: (Change from Feb) Labour: 34% (no change) Conservatives: 22% (no change) Plaid Cymru: 21% (+2%) UKIP: 15% (-3%) Liberal Democrats: 6% (+1%) Others: 3% (+1%) List: (change from Feb) Labour: 31% (no change) Conservatives: 22% (no change) Plaid Cymru: 22% (+3%) UKIP: 14% (-4%) Liberal Democrats: 5% (+1%) Greens: 4% (+1%) Others: 3% (no change) Giving the following: North Wales: 2 UKIP, 1 Conservative, 1 Plaid Cymru Mid & West Wales: 2 Labour, 2 UKIP South Wales West: 2 Plaid Cymru, 1 Conservative, 1UKIP South Wales Central: 2 Plaid Cymru, 1 Conservative, 1UKIP South Wales East: 2 Plaid Cymru, 1 Conservative, 1 UKIP Seat totals: Labour: 27 seats (25 constituency seats + 2 list seats) Plaid Cymru: 13 seats (6 constituency seats + 7 list seats) Conservatives: 11 seats (7 constituency seats + 4 list seats) UKIP: 7 seats (7 list seats) Liberal Democrats: 2 seats (2 constituency seats) The poll also shows 41% / 36% Stay/Leave in the EU referendum, with 24% unsure www.itv.com/news/wales/2016-03-22/poll-shows-majority-in-wales-now-back-eu-membership/
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
Posts: 3,559
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Post by cibwr on Mar 22, 2016 10:44:33 GMT
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Post by Penddu on Apr 11, 2016 6:09:24 GMT
I have been doing some number crunching on UKIP prospects in Wales, and they should win a first list seat on 7-8% of the vote, and win 5 first list seats in each region with around 8% of the vote. But they will find it much harder to win a second list seat - they will need around 14% to win seat 6, 15% seat 7, 17% seat 8, 19% seat 9 and 20% seat 10.
I cant see them getting more than 15% and predict that they will get 6 or 7 seats with second list seats in North and/or South East
I dont see them coming remotely close to a constituency seat.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Apr 11, 2016 17:46:31 GMT
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,372
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Post by Sibboleth on Apr 12, 2016 15:53:33 GMT
Obviously the Tories aren't coming to come fourth, but it's striking how quickly the wheels have come off - given the weird overconfidence of late last year - isn't it?
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Apr 12, 2016 21:26:03 GMT
I'm still fairly sure the Conservatives will beat Plaid. Come Fri 6th May...
Labour will be happy that they're still in power. Conservatives and UKIP will celebrate moving forward. Plaid wil be muted Lib Dems will be even more muted...but only because most of us see what's coming.
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Tom
Unionist
Posts: 1,998
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Post by Tom on Apr 13, 2016 19:18:01 GMT
Haven't the polls consistently understated the Conservative vote in both Assembly and Westminster elections?
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Post by Penddu on Apr 15, 2016 8:53:34 GMT
Obviously the Tories aren't coming to come fourth, but it's striking how quickly the wheels have come off - given the weird overconfidence of late last year - isn't it? They wont come 4th in terms of seats but it is not inconceivable that they could come 4th in terms of vote...just look at the latest polling data (but i dont think they will)
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Apr 25, 2016 8:32:13 GMT
www.itv.com/news/wales/2016-04-25/labour-ahead-as-battle-hots-up-for-second-place/Constituency (with change on last month): Labour: 33% (-2%) Plaid Cymru: 21% (no change) Conservatives: 19% (no change) UKIP: 15% (-2%) Liberal Democrats: 8% (+2%) Others: 3% (no change) List/Region: Labour: 29% (-2%) Plaid Cymru: 22% (+2%) Conservatives: 19% (-1%) UKIP: 15% (-1%) Liberal Democrats: 8% (+3%) Greens: 4% (no change) Others: 4% (+1%)
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 10,823
Member is Online
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Post by iain on Apr 25, 2016 8:44:51 GMT
That's our best Welsh poll for ages
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Apr 25, 2016 8:48:01 GMT
It is. Still need to squeeze another couple of percent...
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Post by Penddu on Apr 25, 2016 8:49:43 GMT
Small steps in the right direction for Plaid and LD, and in the wrong direction for Labour, Cons and UKIP, but could just be background noise..very little real movement in polls and not many constituency seats will change hands.
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Post by jollyroger93 on Apr 25, 2016 8:57:20 GMT
I suspect the Conservatives will get around about the same share of the vote as last time but might get a couple of more percentage points due to a 45% or lower turnout. i hear things are going very well for use in the vale of clwyd and the vale of glamorgan ;)good poll for the lib dems, Kirsty Williams i must say does come across rather well and the blood bath expected for them might be adverted. I doubt ukip will get 15% of the vote i reckon around 11 or 12% is where they'll end up on the night.Plaid need to keep up the pressure in the valleys if labour get 33% of the constituency vote i could see rhondda falling.
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Post by robert1 on Apr 25, 2016 13:26:54 GMT
For comparison, it is probably worth looking at the actual percentages last time round and how they compare with this poll.
Below I have set out the regional figures for 2011 and the latest poll results:-
2011 2016
Lab 37 29 -8 Con 23 19 -4 PC 18 22 +4 LD 8 8 NC Grn 3 4 +1 UKIP 5 15 +10
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Apr 25, 2016 13:49:27 GMT
Worth remembering too that these are just the list vote figures.
I've already seen Plaid members on Twitter celebrating getting the Labour lead down to 7% on the list and saying somewhat optimistically that they only need a 4% swing to elect Leanne Wood as First Minister.
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Post by Penddu on Apr 25, 2016 13:53:54 GMT
Remind me what happened to the LD 31 seat claim of a few years ago..?
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Apr 25, 2016 14:22:19 GMT
Remind me what happened to the LD 31 seat claim of a few years ago..? Kirsty very sensibly never put a time frame on that Unlike Adam Price of course who predicted a Plaid-led government with just 21 seats in 2011 and again this year. Nothing wrong with being ambitious and aiming for more seats (for your party or mine), but for the Plaid yoof many of whom have never done a days campaigning in their life until this election to claim on twitter that Plaid need a 4% swing to make Leanne Wood to become First Minister is both factually inaccurate and utter rubbish and reminds me somewhat of UKIP 's armchair generals having a meltdown on Twitter when they realised that Nigel Farrage wouldn't be walking into Downing Street last May.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,372
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Post by Sibboleth on Apr 25, 2016 15:18:08 GMT
Pretty clear by this point that most of the movement between polls for the past year or so has been statistical noise. Doesn't help that we've basically only seen things from one company actually.
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