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Post by greenchristian on Aug 28, 2022 19:32:34 GMT
YouGov (16-19 August) - docs.cdn.yougov.com/7lxb647ksn/SundayTimes_StateOfTheUnion_220819%20%28Wales%29.pdfShould Wales be an independent country?
Standard question - Yes 25; No 53; WNV 7, DK 12, Ref 3 (Yes 29; No 62; DK 8 without non-voters/refusers & Yes 32; No 68 without don't knows) Johnson remains PM - Yes 31; No 49; WNV 7; DK 11; Ref 3 (Yes 36; No 56; DK 8 without non-voters/refusers & Yes 39; No 61 without don't knows) Sunak becomes PM - Yes 28; No 49; WNV 8; DK 13; Ref 3 (Yes 33; No 58; DK 9 without non-voters/refusers & Yes 36; No 64 without don't knows) Truss becomes PM - Yes 30; No 48; WNV 7; DK 13; Ref 3 (Yes 35; No 56; DK 8 without non-voters/refusers & Yes 38; No 62 without don't knows) That is interesting...all of the potential Tory PMs would significantly increase the prospects for Independence. I can only assume that the 'Standard' question assumes a Labour pm ?.. No, the "standard question" is the question asked by itself. As with all hypothetical voting intention questions, the answers are an indication of the strength of approval or disapproval of the hypothetical, rather than an indication that it would actually change peoples' vote.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Sept 25, 2022 7:49:48 GMT
Welsh Westminster VI
Conservative - 23% (-3) Labour - 46% (+5) Liberal Democrats - 5% (-2) Plaid Cymru - 15% (-1) Reform - 5% (+1) Green - 3% (-1) Others - 3% (+1)
Welsh Parliament VI
Conservative - 20% (- 4) Labour - 40% (+ 3) Liberal Democrats - 6% (NC) Plaid Cymru - 22% (+ 1) Reform - 5% (NC) Green - 4% (-2) Others - 3%
There seems to have only been one question for the Senedd Q, possibly anticipating a change of voting system.
Poll of 1,104 Welsh Voters between September 20-22
Thread:
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Post by Penddu on Sept 25, 2022 8:35:36 GMT
Welsh Westminster VI Conservative - 23% (-3) Labour - 46% (+5) Liberal Democrats - 5% (-2) Plaid Cymru - 15% (-1) Reform - 5% (+1) Green - 3% (-1) Others - 3% (+1) Welsh Parliament VI Conservative - 20% (- 4) Labour - 40% (+ 3) Liberal Democrats - 6% (NC) Plaid Cymru - 22% (+ 1) Reform - 5% (NC) Green - 4% (-2) Others - 3% There seems to have only been one question for the Senedd Q, possibly anticipating a change of voting system. Poll of 1,104 Welsh Voters between September 20-22 Thread: Noting this was taken before Fridays Special Budgetary Operation I assume Conservatives are now even lower....
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Post by andrewp on Sept 25, 2022 9:01:23 GMT
Close to electoral wipeout for the Conservatives in Wales is a bit of a sensationalist term but the bare minimum for Labour to form a government is probably not far short of that.
Obviously in the big Labour majorities in the past electoral wipeout for the Conservatives in Wales is what has happened.
Labour would probably need to gain 7 of the 14 as an absolute minimum to form a government. On a uniform swing, To win a majority of 2, they would gain everything ( excluding Brecon and Montgomery) including Monmouth
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Post by mattbewilson on Sept 25, 2022 9:22:20 GMT
Pretty great numbers for Mark Drakeford
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Post by finsobruce on Sept 25, 2022 10:24:36 GMT
Pretty great numbers for Mark Drakeford And the Labour party under Keir Starmer.
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Post by batman on Sept 25, 2022 10:53:16 GMT
If Britain-wide polls were correct, Labour would also pick up W Carmarthen & S Pembrokeshire, and according to most current polls Monmouth too, in a Westminster general election, leaving the Tories only with the 2 Powys seats. One or two polls also show them potentially losing Brecon & Radnorshire to the LDs. Most national polling also tends to imply a potential Labour gain from Plaid in Arfon. Plaid however always do better in Senedd elections than in Westminster general elections.
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Post by aargauer on Sept 25, 2022 11:00:39 GMT
Close to electoral wipeout for the Conservatives in Wales is a bit of a sensationalist term but the bare minimum for Labour to form a government is probably not far short of that. Obviously in the big Labour majorities in the past electoral wipeout for the Conservatives in Wales is what has happened. Labour would probably need to gain 7 of the 14 as an absolute minimum to form a government. On a uniform swing, To win a majority of 2, they would gain everything ( excluding Brecon and Montgomery) including Monmouth I think Monmouth will be one of those seats that's harder than it looks on paper. I'll believe it when I see it.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,552
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 25, 2022 11:03:06 GMT
Close to electoral wipeout for the Conservatives in Wales is a bit of a sensationalist term but the bare minimum for Labour to form a government is probably not far short of that. Obviously in the big Labour majorities in the past electoral wipeout for the Conservatives in Wales is what has happened. Labour would probably need to gain 7 of the 14 as an absolute minimum to form a government. On a uniform swing, To win a majority of 2, they would gain everything ( excluding Brecon and Montgomery) including Monmouth I think Monmouth will be one of those seats that's harder than it looks on paper. I'll believe it when I see it. I don't disagree, but there will be seats on the other side of the ledger. Basically am of the view that a 10 point Labour lead next time (not that I am expecting one that big, even now) will get them an overall majority whatever UNS says.
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Post by mattbewilson on Sept 25, 2022 11:16:39 GMT
Pretty great numbers for Mark Drakeford And the Labour party under Keir Starmer. I didn't see any personal numbers on Labour or Starmer, if I've missed them please point me to them
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Post by finsobruce on Sept 25, 2022 11:18:08 GMT
And the Labour party under Keir Starmer. I didn't see any personal numbers on Labour or Starmer, if I've missed them please point me to them No personal numbers for Labour.... interesting take. Is it a presidential election?
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Post by mattbewilson on Sept 25, 2022 11:18:27 GMT
Does seem amazing that we can gain Monmouth which we last held when we had a labour majority
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Post by mattbewilson on Sept 25, 2022 11:20:22 GMT
I didn't see any personal numbers on Labour or Starmer, if I've missed them please point me to them No personal numbers for Labour.... interesting take. Is it a presidential election? sometimes pollsters ask for net favourable ratings, as in 20 say they like labour 30 say they don't; net rating is -10
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,552
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 25, 2022 11:21:36 GMT
No personal numbers for Labour.... interesting take. Is it a presidential election? sometimes pollsters ask for net favourable ratings, as in 20 say they like labour 30 say they don't; net rating is -10 Yes, but they're still not "personal" numbers
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Post by mattbewilson on Sept 25, 2022 11:23:16 GMT
sometimes pollsters ask for net favourable ratings, as in 20 say they like labour 30 say they don't; net rating is -10 Yes, but they're still not "personal" numbers I'm sorry if I used the wrong term
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,552
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 25, 2022 11:24:07 GMT
No problem
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Post by BossMan on Sept 25, 2022 11:35:39 GMT
Does seem amazing that we can gain Monmouth which we last held when we had a labour majority Didn't the Conservatives win Monmouth in 2005? A GE that was otherwise won by Labour.
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Post by mattbewilson on Sept 25, 2022 11:36:44 GMT
Does seem amazing that we can gain Monmouth which we last held when we had a labour majority Didn't the Conservatives win Monmouth in 2005? A GE that was otherwise won by Labour. I couldn't quite remember. Even more extraordinary then. Peterborough 17' vibes
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Post by andrewp on Sept 25, 2022 11:51:45 GMT
Didn't the Conservatives win Monmouth in 2005? A GE that was otherwise won by Labour. I couldn't quite remember. Even more extraordinary then. Peterborough 17' vibes Monmouth has historically lowish swings so would be a more unlikely Labour gain than safer seats on paper like Scarborough or Kingswood or Telford or Erewash.
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Post by mattbewilson on Sept 25, 2022 12:48:26 GMT
I couldn't quite remember. Even more extraordinary then. Peterborough 17' vibes Monmouth has historically lowish swings so would be a more unlikely Labour gain than safer seats on paper like Scarborough or Kingswood or Telford or Erewash. they would be equally impressive, maybe not Telford as we held that in 2010
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