jamie
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Post by jamie on Mar 11, 2022 0:57:18 GMT
I think it’d fair to say Reform are not being underpolled, and given their limited exposure it may be wise not to prompt for them given there seems to be little underlying support come the elections since 2019.
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,277
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Post by johng on Mar 14, 2022 13:51:05 GMT
Yougov polls lower than other 'recent' pollsters, but I still think this us about right.
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,332
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Post by clyde1998 on Mar 14, 2022 17:23:04 GMT
Yougov polls lower than other 'recent' pollsters, but I still think this us about right. That looks about right. A significant percentage undecided makes sense: there may be a lot of people who want it in principle but the practical matters are holding them back and others who simply haven't thought much about it at all. The fact support is even as high as ~20% interesting, support is significantly higher than it was pre-2016; independence wasn't on anyone's radar back then. |
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on Mar 14, 2022 18:31:36 GMT
Yougov polls lower than other 'recent' pollsters, but I still think this us about right. That looks about right. A significant percentage undecided makes sense: there may be a lot of people who want it in principle but the practical matters are holding them back and others who simply haven't thought much about it at all. The fact support is even as high as ~20% interesting, support is significantly higher than it was pre-2016; independence wasn't on anyone's radar back then. Savanta 'recently' polled 27% and 30% for independence and Opinium polled 28%. 'Recently' in that this question is rarely asked so all are from 2021. There were also a few Savanta outliers which nobody took too seriously I think. Yougov have polled as high as 26%, but fairly consistently are lower than other pollsters when they poll.
You're right about 2016. Independence regularly polled around the 10% mark before then. I think 20-25% is a fair percentage.
Welsh Labour has the same issue as Scottish Labour (well... had). Many of our supporters are also supporters of independence/ devomax. In this poll it's 29-43 for independence with a whopping 25% undecided. For 2019 Labour voters it's even closer at 32-40. Luckily our party is far less dogmatic than the one north of the border.
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on Jun 21, 2022 10:55:02 GMT
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Post by greenchristian on Jun 23, 2022 23:33:10 GMT
Any idea what the breakdown of the 10% others is? |
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 10,628
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Post by J.G.Harston on Jun 24, 2022 0:02:51 GMT
Any idea what the breakdown of the 10% others is? Cockwomble 4% Nincompoop 3% Gonzo 2% Microcephalous pinhead: 1% |
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,277
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Post by johng on Jun 24, 2022 0:04:43 GMT
Any idea what the breakdown of the 10% others is? Haven't seen the tables released yet.
That's not totally unusual for Welsh polls since Roger Scully stopped blogging about them (though the poll is still jointly commissioned by ITV Wales and Cardiff University). I am sure they'll turn up eventually.
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,332
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Post by clyde1998 on Jun 24, 2022 0:23:30 GMT
Changes compared to 25 Feb-1 Mar poll. Westminster VI:Lab 41 (nc) Con 26 (nc) PC 16 (+3) LDm 7 (nc) RUK 4 (-2) Grn 4 (nc) Oth 2 (-1) Senedd Constituency VI:Lab 37 (-1) Con 24 (nc) PC 21 (nc) LDm 6 (nc) RUK 5 (nc) Grn 5 (+2) Oth 3 (-1) Senedd List VI:Lab 31 (-3) PC 24 (+4) Con 21 (-2) AWA 6 (nc) Grn 6 (+2) LDm 5 (-1) RUK 3 (nc) UKIP 2 (+1) Gwlad 1 (nc) Propel 0 (nc) Oth 1 (nc) Welsh Independence VI:Yes 25 (+4) No 50 (-3) WNV 8 (nc) DK 14 (-2) Ref 1 (-1) |
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,277
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Post by johng on Jun 24, 2022 0:36:47 GMT
Changes compared to 25 Feb-1 Mar poll. Welsh Independence VI:Yes 25 (+4) No 50 (-3) WNV 8 (nc) DK 14 (-2) Ref 1 (-1)
Thanks for sharing these. Do you have a link to the tables?
Strong showing for independence by Yougov standards. Weakest ever no vote in a poll (apart from that ridiculous Savanta one from April 2021)
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,332
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Post by clyde1998 on Jun 24, 2022 0:50:48 GMT
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
Posts: 3,460
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Post by cibwr on Jun 28, 2022 12:55:00 GMT
Any one done any break down on what that would give in terms of seats for the Senedd and the Westminster Parliament?
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