jamie
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Post by jamie on Mar 11, 2022 0:57:18 GMT
I think it’d fair to say Reform are not being underpolled, and given their limited exposure it may be wise not to prompt for them given there seems to be little underlying support come the elections since 2019.
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on Mar 14, 2022 13:51:05 GMT
Yougov polls lower than other 'recent' pollsters, but I still think this us about right.
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clyde1998
SNP
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Post by clyde1998 on Mar 14, 2022 17:23:04 GMT
Yougov polls lower than other 'recent' pollsters, but I still think this us about right. That looks about right. A significant percentage undecided makes sense: there may be a lot of people who want it in principle but the practical matters are holding them back and others who simply haven't thought much about it at all. The fact support is even as high as ~20% interesting, support is significantly higher than it was pre-2016; independence wasn't on anyone's radar back then.
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on Mar 14, 2022 18:31:36 GMT
Yougov polls lower than other 'recent' pollsters, but I still think this us about right. That looks about right. A significant percentage undecided makes sense: there may be a lot of people who want it in principle but the practical matters are holding them back and others who simply haven't thought much about it at all. The fact support is even as high as ~20% interesting, support is significantly higher than it was pre-2016; independence wasn't on anyone's radar back then. Savanta 'recently' polled 27% and 30% for independence and Opinium polled 28%. 'Recently' in that this question is rarely asked so all are from 2021. There were also a few Savanta outliers which nobody took too seriously I think. Yougov have polled as high as 26%, but fairly consistently are lower than other pollsters when they poll.
You're right about 2016. Independence regularly polled around the 10% mark before then. I think 20-25% is a fair percentage.
Welsh Labour has the same issue as Scottish Labour (well... had). Many of our supporters are also supporters of independence/ devomax. In this poll it's 29-43 for independence with a whopping 25% undecided. For 2019 Labour voters it's even closer at 32-40. Luckily our party is far less dogmatic than the one north of the border.
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on Jun 21, 2022 10:55:02 GMT
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Post by greenchristian on Jun 23, 2022 23:33:10 GMT
Any idea what the breakdown of the 10% others is?
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
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Post by J.G.Harston on Jun 24, 2022 0:02:51 GMT
Any idea what the breakdown of the 10% others is? Cockwomble 4% Nincompoop 3% Gonzo 2% Microcephalous pinhead: 1%
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on Jun 24, 2022 0:04:43 GMT
Any idea what the breakdown of the 10% others is? Haven't seen the tables released yet.
That's not totally unusual for Welsh polls since Roger Scully stopped blogging about them (though the poll is still jointly commissioned by ITV Wales and Cardiff University). I am sure they'll turn up eventually.
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clyde1998
SNP
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Post by clyde1998 on Jun 24, 2022 0:23:30 GMT
Changes compared to 25 Feb-1 Mar poll. Westminster VI:Lab 41 (nc) Con 26 (nc) PC 16 (+3) LDm 7 (nc) RUK 4 (-2) Grn 4 (nc) Oth 2 (-1) Senedd Constituency VI:Lab 37 (-1) Con 24 (nc) PC 21 (nc) LDm 6 (nc) RUK 5 (nc) Grn 5 (+2) Oth 3 (-1) Senedd List VI:Lab 31 (-3) PC 24 (+4) Con 21 (-2) AWA 6 (nc) Grn 6 (+2) LDm 5 (-1) RUK 3 (nc) UKIP 2 (+1) Gwlad 1 (nc) Propel 0 (nc) Oth 1 (nc) Welsh Independence VI:Yes 25 (+4) No 50 (-3) WNV 8 (nc) DK 14 (-2) Ref 1 (-1)
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on Jun 24, 2022 0:36:47 GMT
Changes compared to 25 Feb-1 Mar poll. Welsh Independence VI:Yes 25 (+4) No 50 (-3) WNV 8 (nc) DK 14 (-2) Ref 1 (-1)
Thanks for sharing these. Do you have a link to the tables?
Strong showing for independence by Yougov standards. Weakest ever no vote in a poll (apart from that ridiculous Savanta one from April 2021)
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clyde1998
SNP
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Post by clyde1998 on Jun 24, 2022 0:50:48 GMT
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
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Post by cibwr on Jun 28, 2022 12:55:00 GMT
Any one done any break down on what that would give in terms of seats for the Senedd and the Westminster Parliament?
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clyde1998
SNP
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Post by clyde1998 on Jul 3, 2022 11:03:20 GMT
Any one done any break down on what that would give in terms of seats for the Senedd and the Westminster Parliament? Based on my calculations: Senedd: Lab 29 (-1), Con 15 (-1), PC 14 (+1), LDm 1, AWA 1 (+1) Westminster: Lab 29 (+7), Con 6 (-8), PC 5 (+1)
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
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Post by Tony Otim on Jul 3, 2022 12:38:14 GMT
Any one done any break down on what that would give in terms of seats for the Senedd and the Westminster Parliament? Based on my calculations: Senedd: Lab 29 (-1), Con 15 (-1), PC 14 (+1), LDm 1, AWA 1 (+1) Westminster: Lab 29 (+8), Con 6 (-7), PC 5 (+1) Westminster changes should be +7, -8, +1, shouldn't they?
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clyde1998
SNP
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Post by clyde1998 on Jul 3, 2022 12:40:46 GMT
Based on my calculations: Senedd: Lab 29 (-1), Con 15 (-1), PC 14 (+1), LDm 1, AWA 1 (+1) Westminster: Lab 29 (+8), Con 6 (-7), PC 5 (+1) Westminster changes should be +7, -8, +1, shouldn't they? They should, aye. I've fixed that now.
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Post by Penddu on Jul 5, 2022 13:07:48 GMT
Any one done any break down on what that would give in terms of seats for the Senedd and the Westminster Parliament? More importantly - what it would look like under the 90 seat PR system?
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jul 5, 2022 13:57:24 GMT
In terms of current seats on current polling, it looks fairly boring. The most marginal Welsh seats are: Vale of Clwyd | Conservative | 366 majority | 0.7% swing needed to loose | Carmarthen West | Conservative | 936 | 1.48% | Pesseli Pembrokeshire | Conservative
| 1,400 | 2.22% | Wrexham | Labour | 1,350 | 2.99% |
Those are all Lab/Con battlegrounds, there are no 'easy' targets for other parties. If Labour took back Vale of Clwyd, PC would win Labour's current list seat. If either of Carmarthen W / Presseli were lost to Labour, Labour would loose a list seat, to the Conservatives. They might loose both - could they win 3 FPTP and a list seat? In the unlikely event Labour lost Wrexham they could be within a chance of taking a list seat of the Conservatives in a straight forward swap.
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clyde1998
SNP
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Post by clyde1998 on Aug 26, 2022 14:54:12 GMT
YouGov (16-19 August) - docs.cdn.yougov.com/7lxb647ksn/SundayTimes_StateOfTheUnion_220819%20%28Wales%29.pdfShould Wales be an independent country?
Standard question - Yes 25; No 53; WNV 7, DK 12, Ref 3 (Yes 29; No 62; DK 8 without non-voters/refusers & Yes 32; No 68 without don't knows) Johnson remains PM - Yes 31; No 49; WNV 7; DK 11; Ref 3 (Yes 36; No 56; DK 8 without non-voters/refusers & Yes 39; No 61 without don't knows) Sunak becomes PM - Yes 28; No 49; WNV 8; DK 13; Ref 3 (Yes 33; No 58; DK 9 without non-voters/refusers & Yes 36; No 64 without don't knows) Truss becomes PM - Yes 30; No 48; WNV 7; DK 13; Ref 3 (Yes 35; No 56; DK 8 without non-voters/refusers & Yes 38; No 62 without don't knows) In principle, do you think there should [...] be a referendum on independence [...] in the next five years?Should 31 Should not 49 Don't know 20 Which, if any, of the following best describes the way you think of yourself?Welsh not British 21 More Welsh 15 Equal 24 More British 7 British not Welsh 20 Other 8 Don't know 4 If the 2016 referendum on UK membership of the European Union was being held now, how would you vote?Remain 51 Leave 32 Would not vote 7 Don't know 7 Refused 2 (Remain 57; Leave 36; DK 8 without non-voters/refusers & Remain 61; Leave 39 without don't knows) If there was a referendum now on whether the UK should or should not join the European Union, how would you vote?In favour of joining 47 Against joining 35 Would not vote 6 Don't know 9 Refused 3 (Join 53; Stay out 40; DK 7 without non-voters/refusers & Join 57; Stay out 43 without don't knows)
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Post by Penddu on Aug 27, 2022 3:55:34 GMT
YouGov (16-19 August) - docs.cdn.yougov.com/7lxb647ksn/SundayTimes_StateOfTheUnion_220819%20%28Wales%29.pdfShould Wales be an independent country?
Standard question - Yes 25; No 53; WNV 7, DK 12, Ref 3 (Yes 29; No 62; DK 8 without non-voters/refusers & Yes 32; No 68 without don't knows) Johnson remains PM - Yes 31; No 49; WNV 7; DK 11; Ref 3 (Yes 36; No 56; DK 8 without non-voters/refusers & Yes 39; No 61 without don't knows) Sunak becomes PM - Yes 28; No 49; WNV 8; DK 13; Ref 3 (Yes 33; No 58; DK 9 without non-voters/refusers & Yes 36; No 64 without don't knows) Truss becomes PM - Yes 30; No 48; WNV 7; DK 13; Ref 3 (Yes 35; No 56; DK 8 without non-voters/refusers & Yes 38; No 62 without don't knows) That is interesting...all of the potential Tory PMs would significantly increase the prospects for Independence. I can only assume that the 'Standard' question assumes a Labour pm ?..
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Aug 27, 2022 10:54:55 GMT
YouGov (16-19 August) - docs.cdn.yougov.com/7lxb647ksn/SundayTimes_StateOfTheUnion_220819%20%28Wales%29.pdfShould Wales be an independent country?
Standard question - Yes 25; No 53; WNV 7, DK 12, Ref 3 (Yes 29; No 62; DK 8 without non-voters/refusers & Yes 32; No 68 without don't knows) Johnson remains PM - Yes 31; No 49; WNV 7; DK 11; Ref 3 (Yes 36; No 56; DK 8 without non-voters/refusers & Yes 39; No 61 without don't knows) Sunak becomes PM - Yes 28; No 49; WNV 8; DK 13; Ref 3 (Yes 33; No 58; DK 9 without non-voters/refusers & Yes 36; No 64 without don't knows) Truss becomes PM - Yes 30; No 48; WNV 7; DK 13; Ref 3 (Yes 35; No 56; DK 8 without non-voters/refusers & Yes 38; No 62 without don't knows) That is interesting...all of the potential Tory PMs would significantly increase the prospects for Independence. I can only assume that the 'Standard' question assumes a Labour pm ?.. No, if you remind people of something they dislike by including it in the question then people are more likely to say the opposite. For example, a poll in America a few years split their sample into 4 sections. Half the Democrats were told Obama supported universal healthcare and consequently they nearly all backed in. However, the half that were told Trump supported in were less unanimous. On the other side, Republicans told that Obama backed universal healthcare were strongly opposed, while telling the other Republicans that Trump backed it led half of them to support it as well. I wouldn’t read too much into the non-standard questions.
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