Welsh polls

[thirdchill]

Dec 9, 2014 18:08:28 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

It definitely surprises me that no hard left party have really managed to get any traction in Wales.

Labour in wales are a bit to the left of the party generally. There's also a massive generational voting habit in south wales for labour. Along with this, Plaid have enough policies that appeal to these people and they seem to be more interested in socialism and devolution than independence these days.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Dec 9, 2014 18:33:47 GMT thirdchill said:

Dec 9, 2014 18:08:28 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

It definitely surprises me that no hard left party have really managed to get any traction in Wales.

 they seem to be more interested in socialism and devolution than independence these days.

I wonder if that's why this Cymuned lot have appeared.

[Deleted]

The UKIP growth here is interesting and quite heartening if you're a small-c conservative. ~42% in Westminster VI saying Tory or UKIP..

[Sibboleth]

Usual caveats about Welsh polling and why sometimes it should not be taken terribly seriously etc.

[Sibboleth]

Dec 9, 2014 12:05:16 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Which, when you compare it to the recent travails of their Scottish counterparts, makes you wonder how it is that Welsh Labour manage to hold at bay the attrition that we so often see happen to governing parties.

Mostly because the people that vote for them are not the same people who grumble about them (it was always thus). Besides it isn't as though Welsh Labour is immune to losing votes (seats sometimes) to protest votes, though it does seem to be unusually good at getting them back as soon as possible (which is probably more a reflection of the strength of the Labour brand than anything else).

[Deleted]

Dec 10, 2014 1:16:13 GMT Sibboleth said:

Usual caveats about Welsh polling and why sometimes it should not be taken terribly seriously etc.

Have a look at section 2 - blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/opinion-polls/ - the polls aren't actually that far off recent election results. 

[Deleted]

My recent experience is that Welsh polls are not that far off the mark, particularly now that they are becoming a little bit more frequent.

[cibwr]

The frequency has certainly improved accuracy but never under estimate local circumstances.

[Deleted]

Also any potential changes to the number of AMs could significantly alter seat allocations.

[neilm]

Dec 10, 2014 1:20:11 GMT Sibboleth said:

Dec 9, 2014 12:05:16 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Which, when you compare it to the recent travails of their Scottish counterparts, makes you wonder how it is that Welsh Labour manage to hold at bay the attrition that we so often see happen to governing parties.

Mostly because the people that vote for them are not the same people who grumble about them (it was always thus). Besides it isn't as though Welsh Labour is immune to losing votes (seats sometimes) to protest votes, though it does seem to be unusually good at getting them back as soon as possible (which is probably more a reflection of the strength of the Labour brand than anything else).

Also because the WA had fewer powers until recently, so less stuff to mess up/carry the can on.

[Devonian]

YouGov poll for ITV Wales and Wales Governance Centre

Lab 37% (+1)
Con 23% (nc)
UKIP 16% (-2)
Plaid 10% (-1)
Green 8% (+3)
Lib Dem 6% (+1)
Others 1% (-1)

[wallington]

Jan 27, 2015 8:04:46 GMT Devonian said:

YouGov poll for ITV Wales and Wales Governance Centre

Lab 37% (+1)
Con 23% (nc)
UKIP 16% (-2)
Plaid 10% (-1)
Green 8% (+3)
Lib Dem 6% (+1)
Others 1% (-1)

I'm really surprised to see The Greens on 8% in Wales, it really is one of our weaker areas in the Britain. Maybe they've been getting their act together? Or maybe just a rogue poll...

[Tony Otim]

Jan 27, 2015 8:18:35 GMT wallington said:

Jan 27, 2015 8:04:46 GMT Devonian said:

YouGov poll for ITV Wales and Wales Governance Centre

Lab 37% (+1)
Con 23% (nc)
UKIP 16% (-2)
Plaid 10% (-1)
Green 8% (+3)
Lib Dem 6% (+1)
Others 1% (-1)

I'm really surprised to see The Greens on 8% in Wales, it really is one of our weaker areas in the Britain. Maybe they've been getting their act together? Or maybe just a rogue poll...

I don't know about getting their act together, but they're doing relatively well in candidate selection - they've already got about 75% in place - which is encouraging. Still could be a rogue though

[Deleted]

From blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/

National Assembly - Constituency (changes on December poll)

Labour 34% (-1%)
Conservative 21% (-1%)
Plaid Cymru 18% (-1%)
UKIP 13% (+1%)
Liberal Democrats 7% (+1%)
Greens 6% (+1%)
Others 1% (no change)

National Assembly - Regional

Labour 32% (+1%)
Conservative 20% (no change)
Plaid Cymru 15% (-4%)
UKIP 16% (+1%)
Liberal Democrats 8% (+2%)
Greens 8% (+1%)
Others 2% (no change)

His projection of the Assembly:

Labour: 28 (-2): 26 constituency AMs, 2 list AMs
Conservative: 10 (-4); 6 constituency AMs, 4 list AMs
Plaid Cymru: 9 (-2); 6 constituency AMs, 3 list AMs
UKIP: 8 (+8): all list AMs
Greens: 3 (+3): a list AMs
Liberal Democrats: 2 (-3); 2 constituency AMs

[LDCaerdydd]

Obviously this is on a universal swing so, we need to talk it with caution.

I can see UKIP possibly picking up one seat in each of the five regions, if their vote holds up, but to gain two seats in a region (let alone in three regions) they'll need to beat the Conservatives on the list in raw figures and do it in a region where there are no Conservative FFTP seats which is likely be South Wales West and South Wales Central, which I'm not sure of. So I would revise the UKIP figure down three and prob the Tory list figure up by 2 or 3.

[LDCaerdydd]

Back to the general election polling. Again usual caveats about universal swing granted, it suggests only three seats will change hands: Cardiff North, Cardiff Central and Brecon & Radnor.

Could Wales in 2015 be almost as dull as 2001, where two seats swapped hands?

[Tony Otim]

Jan 27, 2015 16:51:26 GMT LDCaerdydd said:

Could Wales in 2015 be almost as dull as 2001, where two seats swapped hands?

Both of which are positively thrilling compared to Scotland in 2010

[Deleted]

Jan 27, 2015 16:51:26 GMT LDCaerdydd said:

Back to the general election polling. Again usual caveats about universal swing granted, it suggests only three seats will change hands: Cardiff North, Cardiff Central and Brecon & Radnor.

Could Wales in 2015 be almost as dull as 2001, where two seats swapped hands?

If so, it would be taking turns with Scotland which had a very dull election in 2010 and promises to be more than spectacular this year. 2001 was dull almost everywhere in the UK in terms of seats changing hands and the lamentable fall in turnout.

[Deleted]

Jan 27, 2015 16:50:01 GMT LDCaerdydd said:

Obviously this is on a universal swing so, we need to talk it with caution.

I can see UKIP possibly picking up one seat in each of the five regions, if their vote holds up, but to gain two seats in a region (let alone in three regions) they'll need to beat the Conservatives on the list in raw figures and do it in a region where there are no Conservative FFTP seats which is likely be South Wales West and South Wales Central, which I'm not sure of. So I would revise the UKIP figure down three and prob the Tory list figure up by 2 or 3.

Who knows.. although he does say.

We should note, though, that with so many different parties in the mix, several of the list seats are projected to be won by tiny margins. In South Wales West, the final list seat was allocated to UKIP over the Conservatives in a calculation that went to the third decimal place – equivalent to about two votes!

[cefin]

Must be quite galling for plaid cymru that after 90 years of trying hard but achieving diddly squat they appear to have less Wales wide support than UKIP if current opinion polls and the recent Euro elections are anything to go by.