|
Post by LDCaerdydd on Mar 23, 2021 0:21:39 GMT
Suffice to say the Welsh Nationalists/Plaid on Twitter are not taking this well.
|
|
|
Post by Penddu on Mar 23, 2021 3:59:39 GMT
FWIW I expect Plaid to improve on this vote prediction simply because they will get more publicity during the election campaign. But they will not win Cardiff West, where they will finish 3rd or possibly 4th. Neil NcEvoy (Propel) will challenge strongly but not strongly enough. I cant see Blaenau Gwent or Llanelli being won either - but do believe that Delyth Jewell will win in Caerffili. The only other possible Plaid gain might be Neath.
Plaid have too many insipid candidates and cliques to be taken seriously. They have a good leader in Adam Price but he is not visible enough.
This will be a very mediocre election for Plaid.
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,656
|
Post by The Bishop on Mar 23, 2021 11:48:20 GMT
This one doesn't quite pass the smell test tbh, it would certainly be good to have some more Welsh polling by others than YouGov.
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Mar 23, 2021 13:25:21 GMT
This one doesn't quite pass the smell test tbh, it would certainly be good to have some more Welsh polling by others than YouGov. Agreed. But it's always fun to see Plaid slide down a ramp they built themselves.
|
|
johng
Labour
Posts: 4,523
Member is Online
|
Post by johng on Mar 23, 2021 14:16:29 GMT
This one doesn't quite pass the smell test tbh, it would certainly be good to have some more Welsh polling by others than YouGov. This.
When ICM and Yougov polled in February, ICM had Labour with a 15 point lead and Yougov a 4 point one.
Haven't heard of any other pollster doing a poll though.
|
|
johng
Labour
Posts: 4,523
Member is Online
|
Post by johng on Apr 7, 2021 21:35:03 GMT
Beaufort Research has realsed a poll (for the Western Mail?) on whether people want the Senedd abolished or not.
I don't think Beaufort have publicly polled Wales before. There are no tables I can see, but the Western Mail says '* Fieldwork was carried out by Beaufort Research between March 2 and March 9. A total of 1,000 interviews were completed and analysed. The sample was designed to be representative of the adult population of Wales aged 16 and over'. It's odd that they decided to sit on the poll for a month after fieldwork finished.
To be honest, I find the figures quite strange as they are a bit out-of-line with ICM have found this year. ICM found 16% wanted to abolish the Senedd whilst 68% wanted to keep it in some form and 15% wanted independence. In that poll only 5% didn't know compared to 19% in this one.
Headline figures with DKs removed are: Retain - 75% Abolish - 25%
|
|
|
Post by LDCaerdydd on Apr 7, 2021 22:16:22 GMT
If it was conducted between 2 and 9 *March* why the hell has it only just been announced?
|
|
|
Post by Penddu on Apr 8, 2021 2:00:32 GMT
20% = maximum gammon (ATWA & UKIP & Reform & right wing Conservatives)
|
|
|
Post by Penddu on Apr 8, 2021 2:03:41 GMT
IIRC Beaufort Research have previously (but not recently) polled Wales - maybe for ITV ??
|
|
johng
Labour
Posts: 4,523
Member is Online
|
Post by johng on Apr 8, 2021 9:58:58 GMT
Very strange they sat on it for a month. The link below may explain why it was done in March, but not why it wasn't released. IIRC Beaufort Research have previously (but not recently) polled Wales - maybe for ITV ?? Yougov has been the pollster for the ITV Wales/ Cardiff University polls for a long time and that's the only frequent poll. As far as I can see, only Yougov, ICM, Survation and Savanta ComRes have done political polls in Wales in the last five years.
Beaufort appears to do a face-to-face omnibus poll in Wales four times a year. It says polls are done in peoples' homes. I imagine they surveys could be quite long and talk about a very broad range of things which may explain why there are so many don't knows. beaufortresearch.co.uk/omnibus-surveys/wales-omnibus/
|
|
johng
Labour
Posts: 4,523
Member is Online
|
Post by johng on Apr 9, 2021 18:43:44 GMT
During the 2016 campaign, we saw two more polls from this point on. They were both Yougov polls commissioned by ITV Wales/ Cardiff University, and they came out in mid April and late April.
Does anyone know if we are to expect the same this time around or, indeed, if any other pollsters are going to poll?
|
|
nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
Posts: 4,061
|
Post by nodealbrexiteer on Apr 9, 2021 19:38:29 GMT
|
|
johng
Labour
Posts: 4,523
Member is Online
|
Post by johng on Apr 9, 2021 21:57:55 GMT
Totally forgot about that poll.
I think it's quite possible they will commission another given the results will not starting trickling out until lunchtime on Friday.
Interesting to see that Yougov's on the day poll was actually pretty damn accurate. They slightly underestimated Labour and Plaid Cymru, overestimated the Conservatives and UKIP and were accurate for the Lib Dems. They were all within the MOE too.
On seats, they predicted:
Labour: 27 seats (25 constituency + 2 list) - Actually 29 seats (27 + 2) Conservative: 11 seats (7 constituency + 4 list) - Actually 11 (6 + 5) Plaid Cymru: 12 seats (6 constituency + 6 list) - Actually 12 (6 + 6) UKIP: 8 seats (8 list seats) - Actually 7 (0 + 7) Lib-Dems: 2 seats (2 constituency seats) - Actually 1 (1 + 0)
I think a lot of use will be hoping for similar this time around with the Cons and the abolitionists overestimated and Labour underestimated.
|
|
nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
Posts: 4,061
|
Post by nodealbrexiteer on Apr 10, 2021 10:14:00 GMT
Totally forgot about that poll.
I think it's quite possible they will commission another given the results will not starting trickling out until lunchtime on Friday.
Interesting to see that Yougov's on the day poll was actually pretty damn accurate. They slightly underestimated Labour and Plaid Cymru, overestimated the Conservatives and UKIP and were accurate for the Lib Dems. They were all within the MOE too.
On seats, they predicted:
Labour: 27 seats (25 constituency + 2 list) - Actually 29 seats (27 + 2) Conservative: 11 seats (7 constituency + 4 list) - Actually 11 (6 + 5) Plaid Cymru: 12 seats (6 constituency + 6 list) - Actually 12 (6 + 6) UKIP: 8 seats (8 list seats) - Actually 7 (0 + 7) Lib-Dems: 2 seats (2 constituency seats) - Actually 1 (1 + 0)
I think a lot of use will be hoping for similar this time around with the Cons and the abolitionists overestimated and Labour underestimated.
I may have said in another thread the TV channels are more inconsistent in the use of on the day polls post the initial 1999 Scottish Parliament/Welsh Assembly elections so I wouldn't bet on one!
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,656
|
Post by The Bishop on Apr 10, 2021 12:15:37 GMT
During the 2016 campaign, we saw two more polls from this point on. They were both Yougov polls commissioned by ITV Wales/ Cardiff University, and they came out in mid April and late April. Does anyone know if we are to expect the same this time around or, indeed, if any other pollsters are going to poll? Fairly sure that someone from Opinium tweeted the other day they had some Welsh polling in the works, may be misremembering though.
|
|
johng
Labour
Posts: 4,523
Member is Online
|
Post by johng on Apr 20, 2021 10:23:58 GMT
This was not expected.
|
|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Apr 20, 2021 10:25:01 GMT
Changes on 2016:
Labour up 5 Conservatives up 9 Plaid down 2 Lib Dems down 4 UKIP down lots
|
|
johng
Labour
Posts: 4,523
Member is Online
|
Post by johng on Apr 20, 2021 10:30:09 GMT
Opinium poll for Sky News (9/4-19/4)
Constituency Labour - 40% Conservatives - 30% Plaid Cymru - 19% Lib Dems - 4% Regional Labour - 38% Conservative - 27% Plaid Cymru - 19% Green - 5%
Lib Dems - 4% UKIP - 2% Other (Including Reform UK and AWAP) - 5% Seats Labour - 29 Conservatives - 19 Plaid Cymru - 10 Lib Dems - 1 UKIP - 1
Westminster Election Figures (Changes on 2019 election)
Labour - 42% (+1)
Conservative - 33% (-3) Plaid Cymru - 14% (+4) Lib Dems - 3% (-3) Green - 3% (+2)
Independence Yes - 28%
No - 52% DK/Wouldn't Vote - 19% Labour voters split 45-39 no.
These numbers are quite different to what Yougov, and to a lesser extent ICM, have found this year. Opinium doesn't have any history with public political polling of Wales so I'm not sure if a pinch of salt is needed. However, they are very good for the Labour party versus Yougov's figures. I think it was wrong of them to not prompt for AWAP and ReformUK as well when Yougov shows them doing better than UKIP or the Greens.
|
|
|
Post by pragmaticidealist on Apr 20, 2021 10:31:30 GMT
Seems implausible. Lib Dems as high as 4%? Come on.
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,656
|
Post by The Bishop on Apr 20, 2021 10:37:22 GMT
ICM had a similar healthy Labour lead though, its YouGov that is the odd one out there.
And a decent position for Labour is compatible with Drakeford's good personal ratings.
|
|