cibwr
Plaid Cymru
Posts: 3,559
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Post by cibwr on Mar 6, 2021 8:19:22 GMT
David Melding is an interesting person in the Conservative Party, and has been squeezed out by the current leadership, best described as semi detached.
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,535
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Post by johng on Mar 6, 2021 13:08:39 GMT
The independence cause is growing strongly and is being challenged by Unionists in a largely negative way. ' Wales is too small - too poor - too stupid' etc. Who says that? Honestly if I had a tenner every time an independence supporter said that I'd be rich. I honestly can't recall a unionist ever saying "Wales is too small, poor or stupid" It is up to the unionists to make the case for the union, they don't seem to be doing that. Every argument deployed by them cease to be relevant if Wales had the same mechanisms and powers that Westminster has. Too poor, well being part of the union hasn't helped us there; too small - many smaller countries than us and they do well; too stupid - that is just insulting - and just look at the Westminster leadership! The only people who say Wales is too small, too stupid or too poor are Nationalists who seek to talk unionists down. To be fair, just read the comments. In the main the comments are either anti-Drakeford or saying Wales is too poor. Of course this is the Daily Mail and polls have consistently shown much greater satisfaction with the Welsh government vs the UK one. www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9332883/The-UK-Welsh-Minister-Mark-Drakeford-claims-Union-not-sustainable.html
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 6, 2021 13:31:07 GMT
The reaction to a supposed 'too poor' complaint is typical nationalist sleight of hand.
No nation is 'too poor' to be independent. The point is that if Wales, or Scotland, was to separate from the UK, it would be materially less prosperous than it is as part of the UK. Nationalists can still argue that there may be non-financial advantages in separating from the UK if they want to.
But honest nationalists should make it clear that independence is not a route to prosperity, it's very much the reverse. And unfortunately the mendacious fight over things like GERS in Scotland has shown that there are precious few honest nationalists out there.
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Post by greenchristian on Mar 6, 2021 15:41:18 GMT
David Melding is one of the very few Welsh Conservatives that is worth listening to. He makes two interesting points: 1. The support for independence is dependent on the question and the solid support is somewhere between the soft high of 39% and the low floor of 14%. For sake of argument lets say it is 25%. 2. Following Scottish independence this will double - ie reaching the 50% threshold. We are not there yet - but we are on the way Point 2 is incredibly speculative. If and when Scotland becomes independent that will most definitely affect support for independence in Wales. But the idea that it will double it is pure speculation with no evidence. If Scottish independence is perceived (by the Welsh) to have gone badly It is possible that it will actually reduce support within Wales and even if it is seen as a complete success story, that doesn't necessarily mean support will double.
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Post by Penddu on Mar 6, 2021 17:40:46 GMT
I wasnt intending to be too 'mathematical' about the doubling - the point is that support is definitley increasing and is likely to surge again following Scottish independence - which means there is a realistic scenario that could take us over the finishing line.
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Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
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Post by Richard Allen on Mar 6, 2021 18:20:45 GMT
I wasnt intending to be too 'mathematical' about the doubling - the point is that support is definitley increasing and is likely to surge again following Scottish independence - which means there is a realistic scenario that could take us over the finishing line. But even if support is rising what will be the trigger for a referendum. In Scotland it was the SNP majority at Holyrood that paved the way for a referendum but there doesn't seem to be any indication of Plaid even coming close to achieving a majority.
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Post by Penddu on Mar 6, 2021 18:58:47 GMT
I wasnt intending to be too 'mathematical' about the doubling - the point is that support is definitley increasing and is likely to surge again following Scottish independence - which means there is a realistic scenario that could take us over the finishing line. But even if support is rising what will be the trigger for a referendum. In Scotland it was the SNP majority at Holyrood that paved the way for a referendum but there doesn't seem to be any indication of Plaid even coming close to achieving a majority. 2026 election seems to be key. And not reliant on a Plaid Cymru majority - expect a cross party campaign including major shift in Welsh Labour position and/or a break away from UK party.
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,324
Member is Online
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Post by CatholicLeft on Mar 6, 2021 20:51:44 GMT
But even if support is rising what will be the trigger for a referendum. In Scotland it was the SNP majority at Holyrood that paved the way for a referendum but there doesn't seem to be any indication of Plaid even coming close to achieving a majority. 2026 election seems to be key. And not reliant on a Plaid Cymru majority - expect a cross party campaign including major shift in Welsh Labour position and/or a break away from UK party. One would expect nothing of the kind. As with your comment on support doubling, this is mere wishful thinking. Nothing wrong with that, but nonetheless unlikely.
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Post by london(ex)tory on Mar 6, 2021 21:00:46 GMT
Please can you take this increasingly tedious discussion somewhere else and leave this thread (and the wider section of the forum) clear for news of actual new polls?
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spqr
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,781
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Post by spqr on Mar 7, 2021 0:13:47 GMT
David Melding is one of the very few Welsh Conservatives that is worth listening to. He makes two interesting points: 1. The support for independence is dependent on the question and the solid support is somewhere between the soft high of 39% and the low floor of 14%. For sake of argument lets say it is 25%. 2. Following Scottish independence this will double - ie reaching the 50% threshold. We are not there yet - but we are on the way Point 2 is incredibly speculative. If and when Scotland becomes independent that will most definitely affect support for independence in Wales. But the idea that it will double it is pure speculation with no evidence. If Scottish independence is perceived (by the Welsh) to have gone badly It is possible that it will actually reduce support within Wales and even if it is seen as a complete success story, that doesn't necessarily mean support will double. Penddu's comment is a good example of the teleology that dominates the romantic nationalist perspective, which illustrates why so many of them view self-realisation (through "independence") as irreversible destiny. It's both a strength and a weakness.
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Post by Penddu on Mar 7, 2021 18:06:49 GMT
Please can you take this increasingly tedious discussion somewhere else and leave this thread (and the wider section of the forum) clear for news of actual new polls? The discussion related directly to the polls. So no.
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Post by Penddu on Mar 22, 2021 14:39:09 GMT
New Welsh Political Barometer polling due these evening. No sign of any Scully surge..
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,535
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Post by johng on Mar 22, 2021 19:26:24 GMT
This simply isn't going to happen. A lot of the Plaid vote in 2016 was related to Neil McEvoy. I expect a big fall in their vote there and they certainly won't be second again. An increased Labour majority actually seems very likely. Still, this doesn't look like it's going to be a good poll for us.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Mar 22, 2021 20:12:12 GMT
This simply isn't going to happen. A lot of the Plaid vote in 2016 was related to Neil McEvoy. I expect a big fall in their vote there and they certainly won't be second again. An increased Labour majority actually seems very likely. Still, this doesn't look like it's going to be a good poll for us. Using the universal swing I’m sure Plaid *would* win Cardiff West. Anyone with half an ounce of common sense knows how dangerous it it use universal swing at the best of times but especially in Cardiff West between 2016 and 2021. Personally I can’t see any big rises for Plaid tonight. Possible covid bounce for the tories? Narrowing the gap with Labour maybe but nothing major.
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,824
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Mar 22, 2021 20:25:07 GMT
New Welsh Political Barometer polling due these evening. No sign of any Scully surge.. To be announced during the Sharp End on ITV Wales which starts at 10.45pm, headline numbers on his website tomorrow and data tables to be published 14 days after the end of fieldwork on YouGov website.
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,324
Member is Online
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Post by CatholicLeft on Mar 22, 2021 21:36:48 GMT
This simply isn't going to happen. A lot of the Plaid vote in 2016 was related to Neil McEvoy. I expect a big fall in their vote there and they certainly won't be second again. An increased Labour majority actually seems very likely. Still, this doesn't look like it's going to be a good poll for us. I will pawn the TV to bet against that happening
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Mar 22, 2021 22:06:55 GMT
This simply isn't going to happen. A lot of the Plaid vote in 2016 was related to Neil McEvoy. I expect a big fall in their vote there and they certainly won't be second again. An increased Labour majority actually seems very likely. Still, this doesn't look like it's going to be a good poll for us. I will pawn the TV to bet against that happening Pawn mine as well
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Mar 22, 2021 22:16:41 GMT
Senedd Constituency:
Labour: 32% (-2) Conservatives: 30% (+4) Plaid Cymru: 23% (+1) Lib Dem: 5% (+1) Reform: 3% (-2) Green: 2% (-4) Others: 5% (+1)
Regional Lists:
Labour: 31% (+1) Conservatives: 28% (+3) Plaid Cymru: 22% (-1) Abolish the Assembly: 7% (NC) Lib Dem: 4% (NC) Green: 3% (-2) Others: 4% (-2)
Westminster:
Labour: 35% (-1) Conservatives: 35% (+2) Plaid Cymru: 17% (NC) Lib Dem: 4% (+1) Green: 3% (-1) Reform: 2% (-3) Others: 3% (+1)
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European Lefty
Labour
Can be bribed with salted liquorice
Posts: 5,666
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Post by European Lefty on Mar 22, 2021 22:47:03 GMT
Westminster: Labour: 35% (-1) Conservatives: 35% (+2) Plaid Cymru: 17% (NC) Lib Dem: 4% (+1) Green: 3% (-1) Reform: 2% (-3) Others: 3% (+1) Really?
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Post by justin124 on Mar 22, 2021 22:51:30 GMT
Westminster: Labour: 35% (-1) Conservatives: 35% (+2) Plaid Cymru: 17% (NC) Lib Dem: 4% (+1) Green: 3% (-1) Reform: 2% (-3) Others: 3% (+1) Really? These are clearly good figures for the Tories. My only reservation re- their credibility is that recently Yougov has been producing higher GB Tory leads of 13% and 9%. Might there be a similar skew here?
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