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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 4, 2021 9:10:28 GMT
Unlike the SNP, Plaid Cymru wasn't set up as a party seeking independence. It's always been a position held by the party's hardliners only.
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Post by carlton43 on Mar 4, 2021 13:03:00 GMT
So 39% would vote for independence while only 14% actually support it. OK so they're different polls by different companies but that does rather suggest that as well as independence being a long way from winning a referendum, the "yes" vote is relatively soft It is all in the mode of approach by the polling organization as to both methodology of question formation and of delivering the introduction and preamble to such questions. That psychology can frame the responses that are received and lead to such apparent anomolies.
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,536
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Post by johng on Mar 4, 2021 14:17:59 GMT
The question really is everything. The ICM/BBC poll question will always have independence support lower as it presents a range of options rather than a straight yes/no question. I haven't seen the new question, but it must be a yes/ no one. You can also boost the independence number by phrasing the question 'if Scotland became independent...' In reality, I think strong support for independence is high single digits to low double digits and with soft support from the low 20s to a third.
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Post by afleitch on Mar 4, 2021 14:33:10 GMT
Fantastic poll.
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Post by jollyroger93 on Mar 4, 2021 14:43:25 GMT
Utter bollocks poll.
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,536
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Post by johng on Mar 4, 2021 15:00:25 GMT
Why is it utter bollocks?
Just because you don't like the answer, doesn't mean it's wrong.
Yougov polled over the same period gave 33-67 (for the Western Mail). This one gives 39-61. Hardly worlds apart given that this question isn't polled heavily and with differing methodology..
I've been saying for some time that unionists need to work harder if we want to save the union. TBH I look less at those who say that want independence and more at the number who say they don't want it - Those numbers have plummeted over the last five or so years. Too many on this forum and in government are dismissive when talking about saving the union when it comes to actually doing something. Boris Johnson can't put his fingers in his ears forever and expect it to go away. Momentum in both Scotland and Wales remains with those who want to break up the union.
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
Posts: 3,559
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Post by cibwr on Mar 4, 2021 15:11:53 GMT
It is up to the unionists to make the case for the union, they don't seem to be doing that. Every argument deployed by them cease to be relevant if Wales had the same mechanisms and powers that Westminster has. Too poor, well being part of the union hasn't helped us there; too small - many smaller countries than us and they do well; too stupid - that is just insulting - and just look at the Westminster leadership! Polls, they are snapshots and of limited use but do show direction of movement. We may get some hardening of abolish the Senedd (though many of their supporters seem to want to just relegate Wales to a geographical description) position as the support for independence grows, and a consequential shrinking of support for the other options. The question though for the people of Wales is what happens when Scotland leaves the Union? The United Kingdom of England and Wales (and Northern Ireland semi detached)? I suspect many in Labour would have to re evaluate their support for the union in those circumstances.
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kefin
Non-Aligned
Posts: 258
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Post by kefin on Mar 4, 2021 21:05:39 GMT
The question really is everything. The ICM/BBC poll question will always have independence support lower as it presents a range of options rather than a straight yes/no question. I haven't seen the new question, but it must be a yes/ no one. You can also boost the independence number by phrasing the question 'if Scotland became independent...' In reality, I think strong support for independence is high single digits to low double digits and with soft support from the low 20s to a third. Well its astonishing because its simply rubbish by a large degree.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Mar 4, 2021 21:59:25 GMT
The independence cause is growing strongly and is being challenged by Unionists in a largely negative way. ' Wales is too small - too poor - too stupid' etc. Who says that? Honestly if I had a tenner every time an independence supporter said that I'd be rich. I honestly can't recall a unionist ever saying "Wales is too small, poor or stupid" It is up to the unionists to make the case for the union, they don't seem to be doing that. Every argument deployed by them cease to be relevant if Wales had the same mechanisms and powers that Westminster has. Too poor, well being part of the union hasn't helped us there; too small - many smaller countries than us and they do well; too stupid - that is just insulting - and just look at the Westminster leadership! The only people who say Wales is too small, too stupid or too poor are Nationalists who seek to talk unionists down.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Mar 4, 2021 22:09:50 GMT
An independent Wales... It'll be funny to see the Cheshire Set trying to flog their chalets on the Llyn.
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,536
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Post by johng on Mar 4, 2021 22:28:34 GMT
kefin again thinking because nobody in his little bubble supports independence, nobody does. An independent Wales... It'll be funny to see the Cheshire Set trying to flog their chalets on the Llyn. Are we setting up a list on the positives of independence?
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Post by gwynthegriff on Mar 4, 2021 22:37:18 GMT
kefin again thinking because nobody in his little bubble supports independence, nobody does. An independent Wales... It'll be funny to see the Cheshire Set trying to flog their chalets on the Llyn. Are we setting up a list on the positives of independence? Abersock will be empty! Though it might mean Abersoch reappears.
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kefin
Non-Aligned
Posts: 258
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Post by kefin on Mar 4, 2021 22:59:36 GMT
kefin again thinking because nobody in his little bubble supports independence, nobody does. An independent Wales... It'll be funny to see the Cheshire Set trying to flog their chalets on the Llyn. Are we setting up a list on the positives of independence? To be fair it was talking to the ordinary man and woman in my own little bubble for a number of years that continued to let me know that the Welsh public by and large were in favour of leaving the EU. Whilst of course the great and good with their noses in the trough down the Bay of Plenty insisted through all media outlets over and over that they would fight for Wales to remain in the EU if the English voted out because Wales was staunchly in favour of the EU. Oh how I laughed at their spoilt scrunched up little faces the day after the vote
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European Lefty
Labour
Can be bribed with salted liquorice
Posts: 5,666
Member is Online
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Post by European Lefty on Mar 4, 2021 23:01:30 GMT
kefin again thinking because nobody in his little bubble supports independence, nobody does. Are we setting up a list on the positives of independence? the Bay of Plenty That joke wasn't funny the first time.....
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on Mar 5, 2021 0:52:06 GMT
They've primarily weighted on 2016 referendum vote. Brexit voters were surprisingly pro-independence as I would have thought they would be very pro-union given their demographics.
- | Voted For Brexit
| Voted Against Brexit
| Didn't Vote
| Total
| Yes to Independence
| 22% | 34% | 46%
| 35%
| No to Independence | 69% | 55% | 40% | 54%
| Don't Know
| 9%
| 11% | 14% | 11%
|
An interesting question from the survey was shared values. I'm surprised at the sum of results for do not share values with other parts of the UK. I'm also a bit amused that more think we share values with the EU than with Northern Ireland. Is Romania really less foreign than NI !? -
| England
| Scotland | Northern Ireland
| EU | Share Values
| 28% | 32% | 24% | 25% | In the Middle
| 34% | 39% | 38% | 30% | Don't Share Values
| 35% | 25% | 32% | 40% |
To be fair it was talking to the ordinary man and woman in my own little bubble for a number of years that continued to let me know that the Welsh public by and large were in favour of leaving the EU. Whilst of course the great and good with their noses in the trough down the Bay of Plenty insisted through all media outlets over and over that they would fight for Wales to remain in the EU if the English voted out because Wales was staunchly in favour of the EU. Oh how I laughed at their spoilt scrunched up little faces the day after the vote
Wales voted 52.5% for Brexit. Is that 'by and large'? I'd say it's pretty evenly split. From what you write, you would think Wales voted 70/80/90% for it. Your 'ordinary man and woman' obviously aren't the ordinary man and woman in Wales.
Oh, and the poster above is right, that has never been funny.
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
Posts: 3,559
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Post by cibwr on Mar 5, 2021 7:53:10 GMT
The independence cause is growing strongly and is being challenged by Unionists in a largely negative way. ' Wales is too small - too poor - too stupid' etc. Who says that? Honestly if I had a tenner every time an independence supporter said that I'd be rich. I honestly can't recall a unionist ever saying "Wales is too small, poor or stupid" It is up to the unionists to make the case for the union, they don't seem to be doing that. Every argument deployed by them cease to be relevant if Wales had the same mechanisms and powers that Westminster has. Too poor, well being part of the union hasn't helped us there; too small - many smaller countries than us and they do well; too stupid - that is just insulting - and just look at the Westminster leadership! The only people who say Wales is too small, too stupid or too poor are Nationalists who seek to talk unionists down. That is simply untrue, its a constant refrain from people - especially too poor. Indeed that is the narrative pushed post covid, that Wales could not afford to furlough people, that its resources are too small to finance its self etc.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Mar 5, 2021 13:00:51 GMT
Reference the 39% I think this tweet sums it up
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Mar 5, 2021 14:12:31 GMT
I had to look up the Triple Crown reference.
I only know it is Six Nations time when a Welsh or Scottish colleague tries to mockingly ask me about rugby. I tend to answer along the lines of "yeah, can't believe we lost to Wakefield, but there you go".
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,536
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Post by johng on Mar 5, 2021 17:03:29 GMT
Reference the 39% I think this tweet sums it up Not an unfair analysis. A lot of truth in it actually.
For clarity, though, the poll was conducted the week before Wales played England.
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Post by Penddu on Mar 6, 2021 4:43:24 GMT
David Melding is one of the very few Welsh Conservatives that is worth listening to. He makes two interesting points: 1. The support for independence is dependent on the question and the solid support is somewhere between the soft high of 39% and the low floor of 14%. For sake of argument lets say it is 25%. 2. Following Scottish independence this will double - ie reaching the 50% threshold.
We are not there yet - but we are on the way
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