Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,813
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Feb 28, 2021 14:43:28 GMT
Wales could be the glimmer of hope that labours needs come may potentially I have some major quibbles about this poll. On the constituency element, the Others poll 9% and on the regional list element they poll 11%, that in my experience is WAY too high and suggests that the Others are probably Abolish 2%, Brexit 2%, Green 4% on the constituency and Brexit 3%, Green 5% and Lib Dem 3% on the regional list. Using those numbers I come up with no change on the constituencies (Lab 27, Con 6, Plaid 6, Lib Dem 1) and on the regional list Lab 3, Plaid 9, Con 7, Brexit 1 (which is out of kilter with the YouGov polls of late) so I am calling this an outlier poll.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Mar 1, 2021 9:50:46 GMT
Second Welsh poll out today, this time from YouGov.
Lab...33% Con..28% PC...22% LD....4% Other.5%
I assume they’re the constituency figures.
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Post by hullenedge on Mar 1, 2021 10:03:52 GMT
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 1, 2021 11:20:52 GMT
Lib Dems in 7th place
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,527
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Post by johng on Mar 1, 2021 11:53:19 GMT
Pretty big difference between ICM's 15 point Labour lead and Yougov's 5 point one. ICM's fieldwork took place over a really long period starting weeks earlier than Yougov, but it overlapped with Yougov's. Yougov uses online polling and ICM phone, though I am not sure what difference that makes. More data from the ICM poll out as well. Has dealt with the pandemic fairly well/ very well: Welsh government - 70% UK government - 41% www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-56194879
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Mar 1, 2021 13:15:05 GMT
Lib Dems in 7th place "Switch bar charts to landscape".
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Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
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Post by Richard Allen on Mar 1, 2021 14:17:39 GMT
Lib Dems in 7th place At this rate they poll rating will once again be an asterisk.
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Post by carlton43 on Mar 1, 2021 15:25:02 GMT
Wales could be the glimmer of hope that labours needs come may potentially What the photo of a badly managed building site there for?
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kefin
Non-Aligned
Posts: 258
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Post by kefin on Mar 1, 2021 22:59:42 GMT
Wales could be the glimmer of hope that labours needs come may potentially What the photo of a badly managed building site there for? It's hanging isn't it? The wood roof panels are looking awful dying for a varnish and the slate steps and wall outside is looking really manky ( no doubt the designer and supporters will call it a natural patina) Anyway what do you expect on a budget....The budget in question actually being 6 times over budget in this case. Without even the faintest sense of irony it was described as being designed and built to represent openness. This from an organisation that I've lost count of the number of Foi's they've refused to disclose on any number of topics. Anyway, BBC Wales surpassed themselves tonight on national UK wide news. Announcing that just a miserly 14% of people surveyed wanted Welsh Independence they then went on to feature the comments of 3 people in favour and just the one against in their report. They've no shame have they?
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ian48
Non-Aligned
Posts: 55
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Post by ian48 on Mar 2, 2021 9:59:42 GMT
What the photo of a badly managed building site there for? It's hanging isn't it? The wood roof panels are looking awful dying for a varnish and the slate steps and wall outside is looking really manky ( no doubt the designer and supporters will call it a natural patina) Anyway what do you expect on a budget....The budget in question actually being 6 times over budget in this case. Without even the faintest sense of irony it was described as being designed and built to represent openness. This from an organisation that I've lost count of the number of Foi's they've refused to disclose on any number of topics. Anyway, BBC Wales surpassed themselves tonight on national UK wide news. Announcing that just a miserly 14% of people surveyed wanted Welsh Independence they then went on to feature the comments of 3 people in favour and just the one against in their report. They've no shame have they? I really noticed that too. I saw it on the BBC national news and thought it was really odd how they found several people who were either pro-independence or indie-curious and only one very opposed (who was from an organisation against independence anyway). They could have gone to any street and found dozens of everyday people who don't want independence. But no... that would be impossible for the BBC to ever feature. If you watched that feature you would have thought support was overwhelming, until you saw the actual figures which showed support at 15%, actually beaten by the numbers of people who want to abolish the parliament. Crazy. You see things like that and you realise the BBC have no idea how out of touch they are when it comes to fighting for the licence fee. But they don't realise that because people with views in tune with the vast majority of people in Wales never get jobs at BBC Wales. They don't see what they don't understand.
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kefin
Non-Aligned
Posts: 258
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Post by kefin on Mar 2, 2021 12:08:42 GMT
It's hanging isn't it? The wood roof panels are looking awful dying for a varnish and the slate steps and wall outside is looking really manky ( no doubt the designer and supporters will call it a natural patina) Anyway what do you expect on a budget....The budget in question actually being 6 times over budget in this case. Without even the faintest sense of irony it was described as being designed and built to represent openness. This from an organisation that I've lost count of the number of Foi's they've refused to disclose on any number of topics. Anyway, BBC Wales surpassed themselves tonight on national UK wide news. Announcing that just a miserly 14% of people surveyed wanted Welsh Independence they then went on to feature the comments of 3 people in favour and just the one against in their report. They've no shame have they? I really noticed that too. I saw it on the BBC national news and thought it was really odd how they found several people who were either pro-independence or indie-curious and only one very opposed (who was from an organisation against independence anyway). They could have gone to any street and found dozens of everyday people who don't want independence. But no... that would be impossible for the BBC to ever feature. If you watched that feature you would have thought support was overwhelming, until you saw the actual figures which showed support at 15%, actually beaten by the numbers of people who want to abolish the parliament. Crazy. You see things like that and you realise the BBC have no idea how out of touch they are when it comes to fighting for the licence fee. But they don't realise that because people with views in tune with the vast majority of people in Wales never get jobs at BBC Wales. They don't see what they don't understand. 14%...... 15% actually want to abolish in the the survey ( Nearer 90 odd % from the people that I speak to around my way) The reporting of BBC Wales on this UK broadcast piece are actually even more blatant when you consider that the 4 people featured weren't just random people stopped in the street but had been picked and contacted by them days before interview so they knew exactly the make up of their 'Vox pop' before starting filming and that it didn't reflect any known demographic. It's what they do. ITV Wales did a similar piece on their news bulletin and did a random stop in the street up the Rhondda and the three people they stopped all said that they were against Independence. And then they had two next door neighbours standing next to each other in their respective doorways who said that Independence was something to think about. Much more balanced I would say as an ad hoc street stop for opinions. And tells you everything that you need to know about BBC media presentation in Wales.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,729
Member is Online
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 2, 2021 12:11:01 GMT
BBC vox pops are unbalanced and unrepresentative, you say?? Film at eleven
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,527
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Post by johng on Mar 2, 2021 14:54:44 GMT
I really noticed that too. I saw it on the BBC national news and thought it was really odd how they found several people who were either pro-independence or indie-curious and only one very opposed (who was from an organisation against independence anyway). They could have gone to any street and found dozens of everyday people who don't want independence. But no... that would be impossible for the BBC to ever feature. If you watched that feature you would have thought support was overwhelming, until you saw the actual figures which showed support at 15%, actually beaten by the numbers of people who want to abolish the parliament. Crazy. You see things like that and you realise the BBC have no idea how out of touch they are when it comes to fighting for the licence fee. But they don't realise that because people with views in tune with the vast majority of people in Wales never get jobs at BBC Wales. They don't see what they don't understand. 14%...... 15% actually want to abolish in the the survey ( Nearer 90 odd % from the people that I speak to around my way)The reporting of BBC Wales on this UK broadcast piece are actually even more blatant when you consider that the 4 people featured weren't just random people stopped in the street but had been picked and contacted by them days before interview so they knew exactly the make up of their 'Vox pop' before starting filming and that it didn't reflect any known demographic. It's what they do. And tells you everything that you need to know about BBC media presentation in Wales.
BBC vox pops have always been completely unbalanced. You were fine when before Brexit they always went up north somewhere and almost everyone they spoke to supported it. Now you don't like it. Some of us have always said they are biased and essentially pointless.
And 90% want it abolished!? Come on! You know that's complete nonsense. A fair number (more than 10%) wouldn't care if we were ruled by Martians. Yet you claim to represent 'real ordinary people'. Totally laughable
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kefin
Non-Aligned
Posts: 258
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Post by kefin on Mar 2, 2021 16:01:25 GMT
Well a bit of an incoherent piece to reply to which I must confess I'm struggling to make head or tail of but here goes.
1) I'm not entirely sure how you are able to contradict my own experiences in regards talking to acquaintences or individuals in my area or circle of friends, that's a quite feat to be honest, have you considered a career in showbiz in psychic predictions and readings. Let me make myself clear just in case there is any confusion. At least 90% at a guess of the expressed views from people that I have spoken to in the last couple of years in the area that I live have been expressions that they would like to get rid of the Welsh Assembly.
If your experiences in your area or your own circles are different then feel free to say so.
2) Not sure what you're on about with me apparently being fine with BBC Vox pops 'oop North' I don't ever remember having a conversation with you in regards such matters, in fact I do seem to recall many Brexiteers complain bitterly about BBC bias when referring to the disgraceful disparity in Remainer/ Brexiteer guests on BBC's flagship Question Time programme as evidenced by the written evidence produced, quantifying guests political allegiances.
You really need to let this Brexit stuff go now, Its over, desite the tories continued attempts to wreck it.
We're going to have to start calling you ...'The Donald'......... if you refuse to accept the reality of life in this matter.
3) Theres clearly a big difference in a Vox Pop stopping people at random in the street and one that sets up a sample of contributors in advance that deliberately distorts the % displayed in the survey being commented on...although to be fair many will say that's what the BBC does best.
I've often thought that TV regulators should propose legislation that makes broadcasters show soundbites from people stopped in the street in direct proportion to the number of people stopped that expressed a particular view on a subject. Thus ending biased intentional or unintentional slants on such supposedly random news items.
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,527
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Post by johng on Mar 3, 2021 23:34:01 GMT
ICM have now released the full tables. www.icmunlimited.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ICM-Poll-for-BBC-Wales-St.-Davids-Day-2021-Tables-23-02-21.xlsxOn the constitution, my comments above still stand. Independence - 14% (+3%) More Powers - 35% (-8%) Same Powers - 27% (+2%) Fewer Powers - 3% (+1%) Abolish - 15% (+1%) DK - 5% (+2%)
Some notable things were the pretty big disparities on who supported things on either end (table results) There was a big age disparity:
Independence and Age = 16-34 - 23%. 35-54 - 16%. 55-64 - 6%. 65+ - 8%. Abolish and Age = 16-34 - 4%. 35-54 - 15%. 55-64 - 18%. 65+ - 26%. An unexpectedly large gender one:
Men have 37% on either end (19% for independence and 18% for abolish) versus 23% for women (10% for independence and 13% for abolish) And more expected party one:
Independence and Party (2019 vote) = Plaid - 50%. Labour - 13%. Conservative - 3%. Abolish and Party (2019 vote) = Conservative - 34%. Labour - 5%. Plaid - 2%.
On the handling of Covid 19. Pretty big advantage still for the Welsh Government. The real question is whether Labour will be able to translate this to votes in May.
| Welsh Gov
| UK Gov
| Very Well
| 20% | 8% | Fairly Well
| 50% | 33% | Not Particularly Well
| 19% | 31% | Not Well At All
| 10% | 26% | Don't Know
| 1% | 1% | Total Well
| 70% | 41% | Total Not Well
| 29% | 57% | Rating
| +41
| -16
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kefin - Of course I don't know your friends or acquaintances. If you read what I said, I was trying to suggest that you live in an echo chamber bubble. Maybe I should have made that more apparent. I, OTOH, do actually know several who would like the Senedd abolished. They are all of a certain generation though. I was using a broad brush which was, perhaps, a little unfair.
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Post by syorkssocialist on Mar 4, 2021 0:39:41 GMT
Plaid Cymru are saying there's a new poll commissioned by ITV showing 39% support for Welsh independence but I can't find the details anywhere. Anyone have more info?
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Post by syorkssocialist on Mar 4, 2021 0:43:41 GMT
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European Lefty
Labour
Can be bribed with salted liquorice
Posts: 5,627
Member is Online
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Post by European Lefty on Mar 4, 2021 3:33:02 GMT
So 39% would vote for independence while only 14% actually support it. OK so they're different polls by different companies but that does rather suggest that as well as independence being a long way from winning a referendum, the "yes" vote is relatively soft
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Post by Penddu on Mar 4, 2021 4:17:03 GMT
A lot depends on the way that the question is put and agreed thst support is still soft.
But momentum is clear - every poll is going the same way.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Mar 4, 2021 6:28:48 GMT
ICM have now released the full tables. www.icmunlimited.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ICM-Poll-for-BBC-Wales-St.-Davids-Day-2021-Tables-23-02-21.xlsxOn the constitution, my comments above still stand. Independence - 14% (+3%) More Powers - 35% (-8%) Same Powers - 27% (+2%) Fewer Powers - 3% (+1%) Abolish - 15% (+1%) DK - 5% (+2%)
Some notable things were the pretty big disparities on who supported things on either end (table results) There was a big age disparity:
Independence and Age = 16-34 - 23%. 35-54 - 16%. 55-64 - 6%. 65+ - 8%. Abolish and Age = 16-34 - 4%. 35-54 - 15%. 55-64 - 18%. 65+ - 26%. An unexpectedly large gender one:
Men have 37% on either end (19% for independence and 18% for abolish) versus 23% for women (10% for independence and 13% for abolish) And more expected party one:
Independence and Party (2019 vote) = Plaid - 50%. Labour - 13%. Conservative - 3%. Abolish and Party (2019 vote) = Conservative - 34%. Labour - 5%. Plaid - 2%.
On the handling of Covid 19. Pretty big advantage still for the Welsh Government. The real question is whether Labour will be able to translate this to votes in May.
| Welsh Gov
| UK Gov
| Very Well
| 20% | 8% | Fairly Well
| 50% | 33% | Not Particularly Well
| 19% | 31% | Not Well At All
| 10% | 26% | Don't Know
| 1% | 1% | Total Well
| 70% | 41% | Total Not Well
| 29% | 57% | Rating
| +41
| -16
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kefin - Of course I don't know your friends or acquaintances. If you read what I said, I was trying to suggest that you live in an echo chamber bubble. Maybe I should have made that more apparent. I, OTOH, do actually know several who would like the Senedd abolished. They are all of a certain generation though. I was using a broad brush which was, perhaps, a little unfair. Only 50% of Plaid voters actually wanting independence? OK I wasn't expecting 100%, but 50?
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