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Post by Penddu on Jan 25, 2021 1:26:03 GMT
I dont have a problem with being called a Separatist - it is accurate even though Unionists think that it has some magical negative connotation which justifies their view point - no matter how bigotted they may be.
There used to be a few posters around before who used to constantly refer to Nationalists as NATS - as if capitalisation made the cause unpalatable.
The independence cause is growing strongly and is being challenged by Unionists in a largely negative way. 'Wales is too small - too poor - too stupid' etc. These negative arguments can easily be countered - and the counter arguments are turning neutrals into Indycurious and the Indycurious into Indyconfident.
There is very little in the way of postive argument coming from the Unionists - they are relying mainly on inertia and imperial nostalgia. This has some impact with older generations but offers little to the younger generations which means time is on our side.
If Gordon Brown is the Unionist answer then you are clearly asking the wrong question.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jan 25, 2021 15:33:48 GMT
The independence cause is growing strongly and is being challenged by Unionists in a largely negative way. 'Wales is too small - too poor - too stupid' etc. Who says that? Honestly if I had a tenner every time an independence supporter said that I'd be rich. I honestly can't recall a unionist ever saying "Wales is too small, poor or stupid"
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Post by jollyroger93 on Jan 25, 2021 16:07:24 GMT
I dont have a problem with being called a Separatist - it is accurate even though Unionists think that it has some magical negative connotation which justifies their view point - no matter how bigotted they may be. There used to be a few posters around before who used to constantly refer to Nationalists as NATS - as if capitalisation made the cause unpalatable. The independence cause is growing strongly and is being challenged by Unionists in a largely negative way. 'Wales is too small - too poor - too stupid' etc. These negative arguments can easily be countered - and the counter arguments are turning neutrals into Indycurious and the Indycurious into Indyconfident. There is very little in the way of postive argument coming from the Unionists - they are relying mainly on inertia and imperial nostalgia. This has some impact with older generations but offers little to the younger generations which means time is on our side. If Gordon Brown is the Unionist answer then you are clearly asking the wrong question. . You are DELUDED.
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Post by Penddu on Jan 26, 2021 4:44:47 GMT
The independence cause is growing strongly and is being challenged by Unionists in a largely negative way. 'Wales is too small - too poor - too stupid' etc. Who says that? Honestly if I had a tenner every time an independence supporter said that I'd be rich. I honestly can't recall a unionist ever saying "Wales is too small, poor or stupid" The third point was a bit of an exaggeration but the first two are almost universal arguments. Every argument used by Brexiteers re Europe can by used by us 'Separatists' against the UK. Think about it...
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jan 26, 2021 10:37:17 GMT
Who says that? Honestly if I had a tenner every time an independence supporter said that I'd be rich. I honestly can't recall a unionist ever saying "Wales is too small, poor or stupid" The third point was a bit of an exaggeration but the first two are almost universal arguments. Every argument used by Brexiteers re Europe can by used by us 'Separatists' against the UK. Think about it... Oh I'm aware, I'm in favour of Wales being in the UK and voted to remain in the EU. I genuinely struggle in my mind to understand Plaid (for example) who say they don't want t be run/rules by London but are fine to be run/ruled by Brussels)
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Post by hullenedge on Jan 27, 2021 15:43:10 GMT
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Post by jollyroger93 on Jan 27, 2021 15:59:22 GMT
Interesting... this maybe due to the perceived slow rollout of the vaccine.
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Post by Penddu on Feb 12, 2021 14:09:30 GMT
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kefin
Non-Aligned
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Post by kefin on Feb 24, 2021 13:12:59 GMT
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Post by Penddu on Feb 24, 2021 17:27:24 GMT
But next poll should be out on Monday.... BBC Wales St Davids Day poll.
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kefin
Non-Aligned
Posts: 258
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Post by kefin on Feb 24, 2021 18:20:20 GMT
But next poll should be out on Monday.... BBC Wales St Davids Day poll. You're quite correct, along with a programme on the subject of Welsh independence. You know all those claims by over excitable nats recently about 40% - 50% now wish to see independence in Wales and that there is an unstoppable charge towards independence? Well, I have already started to form a support group for yourself and other Welsh nats from amongst concerned forum members for when you glimpse the polling. You have to remember it's only a poll and just a snapshot in time, and remember polls can also be wrong of course and one isolated poll is no reason why Gwlad should pack it all in and abandon the cause. I don't want you getting too depressed and to bear in mind that we're all here for you if needed just a post or a phone call away. Don't be too proud to call out for help, we're here for you always.
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,493
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Post by johng on Feb 25, 2021 17:01:34 GMT
It has to be remembered that ICM (if they are doing the poll again) tend to show a more pessimistic picture for independence supporters than Yougov. It's probably due to how the question is presented. Welsh independence has few strong supporters and those who are sympathetic towards it might be inclined to pick more powers when presented with a range of options whereas they might have picked independence if presented with a straight question. All the data on powers from the last decade is on this page - www.icmunlimited.com/our-work/bbc-wales-st-davids-day-poll-2020/ My prediction is less in the middle and more on the extremes.
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kefin
Non-Aligned
Posts: 258
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Post by kefin on Feb 26, 2021 2:16:08 GMT
It has to be remembered that ICM (if they are doing the poll again) tend to show a more pessimistic picture for independence supporters than Yougov. It's probably due to how the question is presented. Welsh independence has few strong supporters and those who are sympathetic towards it might be inclined to pick more powers when presented with a range of options whereas they might have picked independence if presented with a straight question. All the data on powers from the last decade is on this page - www.icmunlimited.com/our-work/bbc-wales-st-davids-day-poll-2020/ My prediction is less in the middle and more on the extremes. My prediction is a low independence figure.
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Post by Penddu on Feb 26, 2021 4:19:22 GMT
I predict the poll will show Independence at 15-20% - the same as Abolition. But with Increased Powers (including Independence) around 55% - compared to Reduced Powers (including Abolition) around 25%.
Lets see...
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kefin
Non-Aligned
Posts: 258
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Post by kefin on Feb 26, 2021 10:43:27 GMT
I predict the poll will show Independence at 15-20% - the same as Abolition. But with Increased Powers (including Independence) around 55% - compared to Reduced Powers (including Abolition) around 25%. Lets see... Marginally lower than 15% Abolish will be marginally higher
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Feb 27, 2021 23:34:30 GMT
Some figures out from the St David’s Day poll. Worth remembering the BBC stick to a set of questions used for numerous years, which are different to the regular YouGov/Barometer polls. These seem to be constituency figures: Lab: 39% Con 24% PC: 24% LD: 4% UKIP: 4% Abolish: 4% Projected seats: Labour 30 PC 15 Con 13 LD 1 UKIP 1 (LOL at the UKIP prediction) In the ridiculous multi option: what next for Wales question: Indi: 14% More powers: 35% Abolish the Senedd: 15% Story: Voting attitudes and Senedd powers quizzed in poll for BBC Wales www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-56194878
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on Feb 28, 2021 1:28:07 GMT
Some figures out from the St David’s Day poll. Worth remembering the BBC stick to a set of questions used for numerous years, which are different to the regular YouGov/Barometer polls.
Data is around what I had expected. May's election will almost certainly bring a Labour government - whether it's with a small majority or just below 30.
It's most difficult to see what will happen with the bottom-feeder parties. Even a small increase in the UKIP or Abolish vote may garner them several seats - but they may well end up with none.
On that constitution question, I was broadly right that we'd see more on the extremes. Though I did think abolish (and possibly independence too) would be slightly higher. Overall, though, the figures don't show any big changes compared to the last few years.
Independence - 14% (+3%). Highest in last decade. Triple the figures seen in the middle of the decade but still a VERY long way from independence.
More Powers - 35% (-8%). Lowest since 2011's poll, but not out of line with what was seen throughout the early 2010s.
Same Power - ? Fewer Powers - ? -> Combined might be +4% dependent on DKs. If DKs are 5%, the total would be 31% which is up on last year, but about average over the last decade.
Abolish - 15% (+1%) Highest since 2014, but before this several polls had abolish at above 20%. The lowest it's ever been was 12% so the idea isn't exactly surging.
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Post by jollyroger93 on Feb 28, 2021 13:38:43 GMT
Wales could be the glimmer of hope that labours needs come may potentially
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,493
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Post by johng on Feb 28, 2021 14:02:12 GMT
Wales could be the glimmer of hope that labours needs come may potentially TBF those changes figures are from when Labour was very low in UK polls down 15-20 points vs the Conservatives. Over the period this poll was taken the average was just a couple of points behind.
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,493
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Post by johng on Feb 28, 2021 14:10:50 GMT
Projection on these numbers using Deryn. I'd expect the Lib Dems to be -1 and Conservatives +1 due to B&R. Not sure if there'd be a list consequential as there are no Tory seats to lose and the Lib Dem vote has really collapsed in Montgomeryshire and Ceredigion over the last few elections. Otherwise this looks like a reasonable map. As I said above though, small changes in the regional vote for Abolish and Brexit might have a big effect.
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