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Post by Penddu on Jan 19, 2021 10:41:06 GMT
But overall, it looks like a Labour Plaid coalition. In which case expect a Plaid FM - just not neccesarily Adam Price. If Plaid finish in third, ten seats behind Labour how exactly will there be a Plaid FM? I know Adam Price saying “I’ll be FM plays” well with their vote (obviously) but Labour aren’t just going to say, sure why not you have a go. Labour can only govern in coalition - I understand that Plaid and Labour are already in talks. Plaid have already said they wont support another Labour FM and selecting someone like Kirsty Williams would have been a good compromise candidate. As Drakeford is standing down...and without a clear successor i think they will agree to share the post - first two years for Plaid then remainder for Labour.
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Post by jollyroger93 on Jan 19, 2021 10:44:17 GMT
If Plaid finish in third, ten seats behind Labour how exactly will there be a Plaid FM? I know Adam Price saying “I’ll be FM plays” well with their vote (obviously) but Labour aren’t just going to say, sure why not you have a go. Labour can only govern in coalition - I understand that Plaid and Labour are already in talks. Plaid have already said they wont support another Labour FM and selecting someone like Kirsty Williams would have been a good compromise candidate. As Drakeford is standing down...and without a clear successor i think they will agree to share the post - first two years for Plaid then remainder for Labour. Oh aye because proping up Labour went well last time, and your delusional if you think Labour will ever share the spot of FM.
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on Jan 19, 2021 11:31:36 GMT
Penddu - I don't know if you've slipped something in your tea this morning, but the next first minister will be a Labour first minister. A Labour-PC coalition is a real possibility, but a PC first minister is just not happening. Don't forget this is a bad poll for Labour and good for Plaid and Labour are still 11 seats ahead. On whether this is a bad sample, a new Yougov UK poll has been released covering a slightly shorter period but over the same date range and shows the below. Hard to imagine Labour are flat across the UK but down 7 in Wales. LAB: 39% (-) CON: 38% (-1) GRN: 6% (-1) LDEM: 5% (-1) REFUK: 3% (-)
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 19, 2021 11:53:59 GMT
Yes the figures for the Senedd are believable (Drakeford has had a few squalls to negotiate recently) but its the Westminster scores that raise doubts about the whole thing.
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Post by No Offence Alan on Jan 19, 2021 12:06:56 GMT
Penddu - I don't know if you've slipped something in your tea this morning, but the next first minister will be a Labour first minister. A Labour-PC coalition is a real possibility, but a PC first minister is just not happening. Don't forget this is a bad poll for Labour and good for Plaid and Labour are still 11 seats ahead. On whether this is a bad sample, a new Yougov UK poll has been released covering a slightly shorter period but over the same date range and shows the below. Hard to imagine Labour are flat across the UK but down 7 in Wales. LAB: 39% (-) CON: 38% (-1) GRN: 6% (-1) LDEM: 5% (-1) REFUK: 3% (-) On the contrary, I think there is plenty of evidence that Drakeford is viewed more negatively than Labour generally.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 19, 2021 12:42:18 GMT
That may be the case right now, but until recently he had higher ratings than either the Welsh or GB-wide party.
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Post by Penddu on Jan 19, 2021 12:42:54 GMT
Penddu - I don't know if you've slipped something in your tea this morning, but the next first minister will be a Labour first minister. A Labour-PC coalition is a real possibility, but a PC first minister is just not happening. Don't forget this is a bad poll for Labour and good for Plaid and Labour are still 11 seats ahead. On whether this is a bad sample, a new Yougov UK poll has been released covering a slightly shorter period but over the same date range and shows the below. Hard to imagine Labour are flat across the UK but down 7 in Wales. LAB: 39% (-) CON: 38% (-1) GRN: 6% (-1) LDEM: 5% (-1) REFUK: 3% (-) I am not saying it will happen - I am saying it is a credible scenario....
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Harry Hayfield
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Jan 19, 2021 15:38:54 GMT
If Plaid finish in third, ten seats behind Labour how exactly will there be a Plaid FM? I know Adam Price saying “I’ll be FM plays” well with their vote (obviously) but Labour aren’t just going to say, sure why not you have a go. Labour can only govern in coalition - I understand that Plaid and Labour are already in talks. Plaid have already said they wont support another Labour FM and selecting someone like Kirsty Williams would have been a good compromise candidate. As Drakeford is standing down...and without a clear successor i think they will agree to share the post - first two years for Plaid then remainder for Labour. Is he?
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
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Post by cibwr on Jan 19, 2021 16:15:44 GMT
[quote author=" Harry Hayfield" source="/post/1049380/thread" timestamp="1611070734Is he?[/quote] He has said as much
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Post by Penddu on Jan 19, 2021 18:01:43 GMT
i think he has said that he will stand down in his next term - but not before the election. But in the event of a poor election he may go immediately.
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
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Post by cibwr on Jan 19, 2021 18:59:10 GMT
I think you may be right Penddu, the plan was to go roughly half way through the term, but if they do very badly then expect him to go sooner
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on Jan 24, 2021 0:59:03 GMT
More data from the Yougov poll. On independence: Yes - 22% (-1 on Oct's poll) No - 53% (-) Don't know - 25% With DKs removed, that would be 71-29 against independence. So much for that supposed poll showing 37% for independence Penddu - but I guess it's not *that* far off. When looking at the numbers generally, there has been a 20 point fall in support for the union and 10 point increase in support of independence over the 5+ years. A definite worry for any unionist. On abolishing the Senedd: Yes - 26% (-1) No - 45% (-3) Don't know - 30% I think this continues to show the growing polarization between those who support independence and those who support direct rule from Westminster. The advantage in Assembly elections is that the latter are much less likely to turnout than the former. On national identity when asked to give main: Welsh - 45% British - 41% English - 6% Other - 5% DK - 3% These numbers are not in line with the 2011 census. www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/bulletins/2011censuskeystatisticsforwales/2012-12-11Honestly, the more I look at these numbers, something feels to be very slightly off with them. www.itv.com/news/wales/2021-01-20/poll-finds-that-wales-would-vote-to-rejoin-the-european-union
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johng
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Post by johng on Jan 24, 2021 11:48:33 GMT
Like buses, you wait months for a poll and two come along at once. This one is also by Yougov for the Sunday Times polled 18-21/1. The interesting take from these figures for me is that stated support for the union in Wales is barely above stated support for it in Scotland and NI. Though support for independence is much lower.
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Jan 24, 2021 12:20:28 GMT
That mostly tells you that it isn't an active issue. Which it isn't.
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on Jan 24, 2021 13:22:16 GMT
That mostly tells you that it isn't an active issue. Which it isn't. Yes and no. It isn't an active issue, but why has stated support for the union fallen 20 points over the last couple of years and why do 40% of people (with DKs removed) support holding a referendum in the next five years? It could very well be the case that some regret this complacency in the coming years.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jan 24, 2021 13:30:48 GMT
That mostly tells you that it isn't an active issue. Which it isn't. Yes and no. It isn't an active issue, but why has stated support for the union fallen 20 points over the last couple of years and why do 40% of people (with DKs removed) support holding a referendum in the next five years? It could very well be the case that some regret this complacency in the coming years. It could also become a live issue if Scotland and Northern Ireland leave the Union, especially if they both do. Neither of which will make an independent Wales any more viable, but they will put Wales into an odd situation relative to England.
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on Jan 24, 2021 17:40:52 GMT
That mostly tells you that it isn't an active issue. Which it isn't. Haven't seen the tables, but according to the article in the Sunday Times Labour supporters split 38% for independence and 39% against. You only have to look north of the border to see what happens when our party ignores its supporters...
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jan 24, 2021 18:49:40 GMT
That mostly tells you that it isn't an active issue. Which it isn't. Haven't seen the tables, but according to the article in the Sunday Times Labour supporters split 38% for independence and 39% against. You only have to look north of the border to see what happens when our party ignores its supporters... Or allows a bunch of separatists to control and set the narrative without any or little challenge to their claims of sunshine and roses for all.
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on Jan 24, 2021 19:20:26 GMT
Haven't seen the tables, but according to the article in the Sunday Times Labour supporters split 38% for independence and 39% against. You only have to look north of the border to see what happens when our party ignores its supporters... Or allows a bunch of separatists to control and set the narrative without any or little challenge to their claims of sunshine and roses for all.
I imagine that the number of people who think independence would be good for the Welsh economy isn't that much larger than the number who attend a Welsh Lib Dem conference. However, as we see in this poll and saw in the Brexit vote, economic arguments don't seem to cut as much mustard as they should.
I think your phraseology also leaves a lot to be desired as well. The term separatist is divisive and unnecessary. Are you really a proponent of the Bozo Johnson strategy of sticking your fingers in your ears and pretending this doesn't exist?
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jan 24, 2021 22:03:39 GMT
Or allows a bunch of separatists to control and set the narrative without any or little challenge to their claims of sunshine and roses for all. I imagine that the number of people who think independence would be good for the Welsh economy isn't that much larger than the number who attend a Welsh Lib Dem conference. However, as we see in this poll and saw in the Brexit vote, economic arguments don't seem to cut as much mustard as they should. I think your phraseology also leaves a lot to be desired as well. The term separatist is divisive and unnecessary. Are you really a proponent of the Bozo Johnson strategy of sticking your fingers in your ears and pretending this doesn't exist?
I’m happy to call the YesCymru lot separatists as that’s what they are and that’s what they want and they will take advantage of any situation to achieve it.
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