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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Apr 20, 2021 10:40:57 GMT
Welsh polling has always been difficult and it's quite possible that these changes vary by region. Labour's path to a majority or single-party government depends on winning a lot of marginal constituencies and they are clustered in North Wales - which does not always move in line with South Wales.
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Post by justin124 on Apr 20, 2021 10:41:24 GMT
ICM had a similar healthy Labour lead though, its YouGov that is the odd one out there. And a decent position for Labour is compatible with Drakeford's good personal ratings. They are also much more in line with changes in national GB vote share since the 2019 GE.
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johng
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Post by johng on Apr 20, 2021 11:06:43 GMT
Opinium poll for Sky News. Constituency Labour - 40% Conservatives - 30% Plaid Cymru - 19% Lib Dems - 4% Regional Labour - 38% Conservative - 27% Plaid Cymru - 19% Green - 5%
Lib Dems - 4% UKIP - 2% Other (Including Reform UK and AWAP) - 5% They asked about independence too.
And I can't help but agree with this.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Apr 20, 2021 11:29:18 GMT
Opinion seat forecast is Lab 29, C 19, PC 10, L Dem 1, UKIP 1.
That would make the Conservatives the largest opposition party in its history and the first time the Assembly looked something like the 'two and a half party system' the UK has had since the 1960s. But just two seats changing hands could make this look very different and the electoral system is very sensitive.
(Specifically I'm not sure about awarding a seat to UKIP as it seems likely their vote will split between Reform and Abolish the Welsh Assembly; also I am far from confident the Lib Dems will retain their seat)
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Penddu
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Post by Penddu on Apr 20, 2021 11:31:06 GMT
They dont seem right to me - simply because the Senedd constituency figures are too similar to the Westminster figures - which doesnt smell right.
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johng
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Post by johng on Apr 20, 2021 13:43:19 GMT
Welsh polling has always been difficult and it's quite possible that these changes vary by region. Labour's path to a majority or single-party government depends on winning a lot of marginal constituencies and they are clustered in North Wales - which does not always move in line with South Wales. It's true that the north and south can vote differently, but our marginal seats aren't particularly clustered in the north.
Our most marginal held seats by numeric majority are: Llanelli - 382 Blaenau Gwent - 650 Vale of Clwyd - 768 Cardiff Central - 817
Vale of Glamorgan - 777 Cardiff West - 1,176 Wrexham - 1,325 Caerphilly - 1,575
Gower - 1,829 That's seven in the south and two in the north.
Though clearly some of them like Blaenau Gwent and Cardiff West will be safe Labour holds. Then there are some the Tories gained in 2019 which are at risk, but where we hold pretty decent majorities (Delyn - 3,582 or Clwyd South - 3,016). Basically our marginals are quite geographically mixed.
Realistically, our only two possible pick-ups are Aberconwy where we came 1,607 behind the Tories, but third place behind Plaid, and the Rhondda where Leanne Wood holds a 3,459 majority. One in the north and one the south.
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Post by michaelarden on Apr 20, 2021 14:08:05 GMT
Opinion seat forecast is Lab 29, C 19, PC 10, L Dem 1, UKIP 1. That would make the Conservatives the largest opposition party in its history and the first time the Assembly looked something like the 'two and a half party system' the UK has had since the 1960s. But just two seats changing hands could make this look very different and the electoral system is very sensitive. (Specifically I'm not sure about awarding a seat to UKIP as it seems likely their vote will split between Reform and Abolish the Welsh Assembly; also I am far from confident the Lib Dems will retain their seat) With UKIP at 2% on the list and the Greens at 5% - how do UKIP get a seat and the Greens don't? The 1 Lib Dem seat is I assume a constituency?
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Apr 20, 2021 15:02:34 GMT
Opinion seat forecast is Lab 29, C 19, PC 10, L Dem 1, UKIP 1. That would make the Conservatives the largest opposition party in its history and the first time the Assembly looked something like the 'two and a half party system' the UK has had since the 1960s. But just two seats changing hands could make this look very different and the electoral system is very sensitive. (Specifically I'm not sure about awarding a seat to UKIP as it seems likely their vote will split between Reform and Abolish the Welsh Assembly; also I am far from confident the Lib Dems will retain their seat) With UKIP at 2% on the list and the Greens at 5% - how do UKIP get a seat and the Greens don't? The 1 Lib Dem seat is I assume a constituency? I assume its because the Greens vote distribution across different regions was much flatter than UKIPs or the Lib Dems last time and so the increase leaves them short on every region, whereas UKIP, even with an 11% drop would still just scape one in South Wales East and the Lib Dems in Mid and West even if they lose B&R. In reality, the chances of UKIP holding a list seat with 2% nationally are much smaller, but that's universal swing models for you.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Apr 20, 2021 15:17:15 GMT
You'll forgive me if I choose to ignore any poll that puts puts UKIP on 1 seat and Abolish on 0.
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johng
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Post by johng on Apr 20, 2021 15:32:32 GMT
You'll forgive me if I choose to ignore any poll that puts puts UKIP on 1 seat and Abolish on 0. Clearly it was a big mistake not to prompt for AWAP and ReformUK. AWAP look certain to gain at least a couple of seats, but not being prompted in the poll obviously means that isn't shown in these figures.
ICM also had UKIP on one seat which is why Hamilton changed from Mid and West Wales to South Wales East where that poll showed they would win.
However, there's lots that seems right with the poll. The Westminster figures are reasonable given UK polling which seems to be averaging Conservatives flat and Labour up a couple of points on 2019. The independence figure as pretty much in the middle of recent Yougov and Savanta numbers.
One of the problems we have is that Yougov is the only frequent Welsh pollster. They are also currently Labour's bad pollster/ AWAP's good pollster. We know that they are currently showing Labour lower nationally than any other pollster.
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Post by Penddu on Apr 20, 2021 17:28:53 GMT
AWAP are only standing in half the seats - so actual voters will only be 'prompted' in the polling booth in half the seats. Most voters still dont split their vote so I expect that actual AWAP vote will be around half their best 'prompted' opinion poll. So maybe 4% = zero seats.
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Apr 20, 2021 17:42:40 GMT
AWAP are only standing in half the seats - so actual voters will only be 'prompted' in the polling booth in half the seats. Most voters still dont split their vote so I expect that actual AWAP vote will be around half their best 'prompted' opinion poll. So maybe 4% = zero seats. They got almost 4.5% last time without standing in any constituencies so I'm not sure that line of argument really holds up...
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Apr 20, 2021 17:43:21 GMT
AWAP are only standing in half the seats - so actual voters will only be 'prompted' in the polling booth in half the seats. Most voters still dont split their vote so I expect that actual AWAP vote will be around half their best 'prompted' opinion poll. So maybe 4% = zero seats. Abolish got 4.4% on the list last time when they didn't stand in any constituencies and that was with UKIP flying high on 13%. I would be very surprised if the combined Abolish / UKIP / Reform / Freedom vote isn't at least 15%. The obvious danger is that they split the vote in such a horrendous manner that they all end up empty handed but this does seem very unlikely to me.
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Post by Penddu on Apr 20, 2021 18:34:16 GMT
AWAP are only standing in half the seats - so actual voters will only be 'prompted' in the polling booth in half the seats. Most voters still dont split their vote so I expect that actual AWAP vote will be around half their best 'prompted' opinion poll. So maybe 4% = zero seats. Abolish got 4.4% on the list last time when they didn't stand in any constituencies and that was with UKIP flying high on 13%. I would be very surprised if the combined Abolish / UKIP / Reform / Freedom vote isn't at least 15%. The obvious danger is that they split the vote in such a horrendous manner that they all end up empty handed but this does seem very unlikely to me. 15% total 'gammon' vote sounds about right which could be worth 5 to 10 list seats. But if split equally they will all achieve zero seats. In the last elections where UKIP and then Brexit have had this ground to themselves then they have benefitted from a single focus. But this time round they seem likely to largely cancel each other out.
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Post by finsobruce on Apr 20, 2021 18:36:14 GMT
AWAP are only standing in half the seats - so actual voters will only be 'prompted' in the polling booth in half the seats. Most voters still dont split their vote so I expect that actual AWAP vote will be around half their best 'prompted' opinion poll. So maybe 4% = zero seats. Abolish got 4.4% on the list last time when they didn't stand in any constituencies and that was with UKIP flying high on 13%. I would be very surprised if the combined Abolish / UKIP / Reform / Freedom vote isn't at least 15%. The obvious danger is that they split the vote in such a horrendous manner that they all end up empty handed but this does seem very unlikely to me. So how do you think they might end up in terms of seats?
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Apr 20, 2021 18:40:53 GMT
Abolish got 4.4% on the list last time when they didn't stand in any constituencies and that was with UKIP flying high on 13%. I would be very surprised if the combined Abolish / UKIP / Reform / Freedom vote isn't at least 15%. The obvious danger is that they split the vote in such a horrendous manner that they all end up empty handed but this does seem very unlikely to me. So how do you think they might end up in terms of seats? I don't really know but my gut feeling is that Abolish will do the best of these parties and will win a seat in most if not all regions. Unlike UKIP and Reform they have a clear message that is relevant to this election and unlike the Freedom Alliance they are fairly well established.
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Post by jamie on Apr 20, 2021 18:48:18 GMT
However, there's lots that seems right with the poll. The Westminster figures are reasonable given UK polling which seems to be averaging Conservatives flat and Labour up a couple of points on 2019. The independence figure as pretty much in the middle of recent Yougov and Savanta numbers. One of the problems we have is that Yougov is the only frequent Welsh pollster. They are also currently Labour's bad pollster/ AWAP's good pollster. We know that they are currently showing Labour lower nationally than any other pollster.
This point does need emphasising more often. A large part of the current narrative about Labour’s woes in Wales (along with the surge for independence) are based on a single polling company. The rare non-YouGov polls that show a different picture are largely ignored. YouGov may well be proven right, but without knowing the actual result it does seem like there has been too much weight placed on their polls.
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johng
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Post by johng on Apr 20, 2021 19:31:42 GMT
So how do you think they might end up in terms of seats? I don't really know but my gut feeling is that Abolish will do the best of these parties and will win a seat in most if not all regions. Unlike UKIP and Reform they have a clear message that is relevant to this election and unlike the Freedom Alliance they are fairly well established. It's incredibly difficult to tell because it is highly dependent on how other parties do and how much those three parties split each other's vote. A single point here or there can be the difference between none or several seats. I posted in the Welsh Politics thread (https://vote-2012.proboards.com/post/1085495) about polling for the 'abolish vote'.
My feeling is AWAP are almost certainly going to get a seat in South Wales East, South Wales Central and North Wales, they are pretty likely in South Wales West and it's possible in Mid and West Wales. Their best chance of a second seat is South Wales East and then North Wales.
Two polls have shown UKIP winning one seat with South Wales East being most likely, but I'd lean to two AWAP before one AWAP and one UKIP. ReformUK don't seem to be gaining any traction in Welsh or UK polls so it seems unlikely they'll get anything but, decisively, could split enough of the vote to prevent AWAP gaining a seat/ second seat in some regions. UKIP are campaigning heavily on abolishing the Senedd and I have had a Royal Mail delivered leaflet, several Facebook ads to this effect as well as Hamilton's TV appearances so I think their messaging is pretty clear. ReformUK seem to be more anti-lockdown from the limited things I have seen.
This point does need emphasising more often. A large part of the current narrative about Labour’s woes in Wales (along with the surge for independence) are based on a single polling company. The rare non-YouGov polls that show a different picture are largely ignored. YouGov may well be proven right, but without knowing the actual result it does seem like there has been too much weight placed on their polls. Labour's supposed electoral woes in Wales are entirely down to Yougov. ICM and Opinium have had us doing pretty well. What gives me hope is that Yougov is Labour's worst pollster in a UK context. They may be right of course, but they are certainly not in line with the average.
However, on independence Yougov are a pretty poor pollster for yes supporters. Savanta and Opinium have given yes higher figures. ICM ask a completely different question which isn't really comparable to anything asking a straight yes or no - though even they have independence doubling in strength compared to a couple of years ago.
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johng
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Post by johng on Apr 21, 2021 13:57:45 GMT
Roger Scully confirms there's a ITV Wales/ Cardiff University Yougov poll coming tomorrow. As usual for him, it's 'quite a poll...' which probably means not too different to the last one... Though, knowing Yougov, it'll probably put the Tories in front. For reference, their last poll from late March was Lab 32, Con 30, PC 23 and LD 5.
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Post by finsobruce on Apr 21, 2021 14:06:15 GMT
Roger Scully confirms there's a ITV Wales/ Cardiff University Yougov poll coming tomorrow. As usual for him, it's 'quite a poll...' which probably means not too different to the last one... Though, knowing Yougov, it'll probably put the Tories in front. For reference, their last poll from late March was Lab 32, Con 30, PC 23 and LD 5. I do wish Mulder could get Scully into some sort of order.
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