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Post by LDCaerdydd on Aug 28, 2020 13:39:12 GMT
Keep an eye out for Neil McEvoy's no-name yet party. He has a very strong local following and could make a significant impact in SE Wales. But having an official name and party registration would help... A pint/fiver to a charity of your choice says he’s looses his seat in May.
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Post by london(ex)tory on Aug 28, 2020 14:53:59 GMT
The real risk here is a nationalist party that isn't tied to the language and rural west/ north Wales. There's absolutely no reason why that type of party couldn't get SNP Glasgow margins in the South Wales Valleys and certain parts of north and west Wales. Welsh Labour would crumble like a house of cards. It's not going to happen for the foreseeable though.
Oh I know and that's pleasing in my view. You could almost say how gwlad you are.
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Post by Penddu on Aug 28, 2020 17:18:38 GMT
Keep an eye out for Neil McEvoy's no-name yet party. He has a very strong local following and could make a significant impact in SE Wales. But having an official name and party registration would help... A pint/fiver to a charity of your choice says he’s looses his seat in May. I think he will struggle to unseat Drakeford now - but will keep his regional seat - so bet accepted.
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Post by Penddu on Aug 28, 2020 17:19:06 GMT
Oh I know and that's pleasing in my view. You could almost say how gwlad you are. Gwlad all over..
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Aug 28, 2020 17:52:40 GMT
A pint/fiver to a charity of your choice says he’s looses his seat in May. I think he will struggle to unseat Drakeford now - but will keep his regional seat - so bet accepted. Deal
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Post by Penddu on Sept 12, 2020 19:26:16 GMT
New Welsh Barometer poll out on Monday....
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Post by london(ex)tory on Sept 13, 2020 8:06:01 GMT
New Welsh Barometer poll out on Monday.... Has Awan-Scully done a "golly gosh" tweet yet?
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Post by Penddu on Sept 13, 2020 17:32:37 GMT
He has been very restrained....has he learned his lesson?
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Sept 14, 2020 17:07:26 GMT
Poll taken 28 Aug - 4 Sept.
Obviously I hope this is an outlier as all the recent UK polling has been +1-2% for the LDs.
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 8,151
Member is Online
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Post by cogload on Sept 14, 2020 17:14:36 GMT
We have an awfully long road ahead. Let us be honest.
The poll is 10 days old but that is not grounds for dismissal.
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Post by manchesterman on Sept 14, 2020 18:01:19 GMT
Wow. When is the last time the LDs were as low as 2% in a national poll!?!
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Sept 14, 2020 19:40:32 GMT
Wow. When is the last time the LDs were as low as 2% in a national poll!?! You probably need to head back to the early Ashdown days and the famous asterisk.
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Post by manchesterman on Sept 14, 2020 20:06:43 GMT
I'd eat my hat if the LDs were as low as 2% under Ashdown
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,498
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Post by johng on Sept 14, 2020 20:24:41 GMT
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Post by london(ex)tory on Sept 14, 2020 21:32:23 GMT
Wow. When is the last time the LDs were as low as 2% in a national poll!?! This is not a national poll. Wales is not a nation.
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Post by manchesterman on Sept 14, 2020 21:34:39 GMT
Before you get mauled by the Welsh members, I was distinguishing from a regional or constituency poll
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Sept 15, 2020 9:36:52 GMT
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,764
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Sept 15, 2020 10:41:59 GMT
The calculations that poll produces is Labour short of an overall majority by six. Assuming that Kirsty wants her Education portfolio back (grumble: Join Labour and get it that way, don't stand as a Lib Dem in Brecon), then Labour need five more members from somewhere. Personally speaking I cannot see that happening and therefore the question has to be asked "Multiple elections for First Minister, or a anti Labour governing coalition"?
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,607
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 15, 2020 10:43:39 GMT
Yes, but is Plaid and the Tories getting together any more feasible now than it was after 2007?
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,312
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Post by Sibboleth on Sept 15, 2020 12:38:29 GMT
Yes, but is Plaid and the Tories getting together any more feasible now than it was after 2007? Considerably less likely. Plaid's membership would only wear it if they were the senior member, and the gap between the two parties on constitutional matters has increased considerably since then: Price is a harder nationalist than IWJ and the Conservatives have shifted to a cooler stance on devolution as a concept as well - though I'm sure this would change at once if they were out of power at Westminster!
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