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Post by LDCaerdydd on Sept 15, 2020 13:47:42 GMT
Plaid have repeatedly said they won't work with the Conservatives, but have worded things differently with regards to Labour. Plaid it looks like would be happy to work with Labour if they were the senior (or potentially equal) partner. It's very much a "I'll play football, but only if I'm the captain" mentality. Plaid it seems have calculated that if Labour have fewer or an equal number of seats Labour would support a Plaid First Minister rather than work in opposition with the Conservatives. Plaid secretly want to end the election with 21 seats to Labour's 20. The last time Plaid were projected to finish in second place on seats was July 2019.
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Post by MeirionGwril on Oct 31, 2020 9:42:03 GMT
Roger Awan Scully teasingly hints in tweet at 'highest ever' support for *something* in next Monday's Welsh Political Barometer poll ...
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Post by greenchristian on Oct 31, 2020 9:46:50 GMT
Roger Awan Scully teasingly hints in tweet at 'highest ever' support for *something* in next Monday's Welsh Political Barometer poll ... Highest ever support for a Roger Scully poll ramping?
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,483
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 31, 2020 10:10:57 GMT
Roger Awan Scully teasingly hints in tweet at 'highest ever' support for *something* in next Monday's Welsh Political Barometer poll ... Independence, fairly obviously.
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Oct 31, 2020 10:13:25 GMT
Roger Awan Scully teasingly hints in tweet at 'highest ever' support for *something* in next Monday's Welsh Political Barometer poll ... Highest ever support for a Roger Scully poll ramping? I'd be surprised if even 0.1% ever supported something so futile.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Oct 31, 2020 10:38:11 GMT
Roger Awan Scully teasingly hints in tweet at 'highest ever' support for *something* in next Monday's Welsh Political Barometer poll ... Independence, fairly obviously. Do his polls poll independence? I thought only party support and leader approval. Far more chance of it being the highest support for Abolish their highest so far is 4% (eight weeks ago) so it's not beyond possible they've reached 5/6 given the Welsh Govt's ban on non essential items etc.
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,491
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Post by johng on Oct 31, 2020 12:47:15 GMT
Independence, fairly obviously. Do his polls poll independence? I thought only party support and leader approval. Far more chance of it being the highest support for Abolish their highest so far is 4% (eight weeks ago) so it's not beyond possible they've reached 5/6 given the Welsh Govt's ban on non essential items etc. That would be my guess. Enough to get a list seat somewhere.
It could also be recognition/ approval of the first minister as well (Which would be a very good thing for accountability - anonymity it one of the greatest flaws in our system of government in this country).
They have asked about independence before. I'm sure their last poll had support for it at 25% which was their highest ever. It could be this, but I'm not sure. I can see how people might be getting more polarised though with more support for independence and more support for abolishing the assembly/ senedd.
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mondialito
Labour
Everything is horribly, brutally possible.
Posts: 4,924
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Post by mondialito on Oct 31, 2020 13:08:00 GMT
Independence, fairly obviously. Do his polls poll independence? I thought only party support and leader approval. IIRC, recent polls have asked about independence as well as devolution (reverse it, extend it, or keep things as they are).
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Post by manchesterman on Oct 31, 2020 13:52:21 GMT
Arent votes for PC, by default, a vote in favour of independence? Maybe it's a particularly good poll for PC?
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,491
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Post by johng on Oct 31, 2020 14:00:09 GMT
Arent votes for PC, by default, a vote in favour of independence? Maybe it's a particularly good poll for PC? No, not according to the opinion polls anyway. The last Yougov poll had.
Support for Independence (Yes / No) More yes than no:
Plaid Cymru - 45 / 33 Labour - 39 / 37
More no than yes: Lib Dem - 25 / 52 Conservative - 8 / 86
The real interesting detail to me is the sheer number of 'don't knows' among Labour and Plaid supporters (21% each of their supporters). Tory voters seem a lot clearer on being against it.
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Post by manchesterman on Oct 31, 2020 14:12:29 GMT
I maybe didnt make my point as well as I might.
What I meant was everyone (or 90%+) of those who vote for PC are in favour of independence, right? So maybe this new poll will be about an upturn in support for PC, as someobe suggested earlier that he dosent do polls about independence.. was just musing aloud.
Btw does anyone know what the highest ever support for PC has been??
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,491
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Post by johng on Oct 31, 2020 14:24:34 GMT
I maybe didnt make my point as well as I might. What I meant was everyone (or 90%+) of those who vote for PC are in favour of independence, right? So maybe this new poll will be about an upturn in support for PC, as someobe suggested earlier that he dosent do polls about independence.. was just musing aloud. Btw does anyone know what the highest ever support for PC has been?? ?
Maybe I don't understand what you're trying to say, but I already answered that in my previous post.
No, 'everyone' who votes for Plaid Cymru is not in favour of independence.
The last Yougov poll showed that Plaid Cymru supporters were split: Yes to Independence - 45 %
No to Independence - 33% Don't know: 21%
The support for independence by Plaid supporters isn't actually that much different to Labour supporters.
Labour supporters split: Yes to Independence - 39 % No to Independence - 37% Don't know: 21%
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Post by manchesterman on Oct 31, 2020 14:34:53 GMT
Well that is a bit weird then. The whole ethos of PC is about Welsh independence, why would anyone vote for them who was against independence? Bit like someone voting for the Brexit party but wanting to remain in the EU!
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Oct 31, 2020 14:35:33 GMT
In the Senedd Plaid's highest poll rating was 27% in Feb 2019, in Scully's poll the highest so far has been 24% around the time of the Euros last year.
In Westminister Plaid have hit 15% a few times.
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,491
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Post by johng on Oct 31, 2020 14:54:37 GMT
ICM always seem to give Plaid an extra point or two over Yougov. The Feb 2019 poll link LDCaerdydd mentioned: www.icmunlimited.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/st-davids-day-2019-bpc2-1.pdfFor Yougov, Plaid have hit 24% a few times, including when they led July last year. And there are many reasons some might vote for Plaid Cymru when they don't support independence. It could be a protest vote, they like/ know/ have heard of the candidate, better than the alternative, saw Leanne Wood on TV and thought she was hot, only party to have knocked on my door this time, just picked at random, have always voted for that party and many other reasons.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Oct 31, 2020 14:55:38 GMT
Well that is a bit weird then. The whole ethos of PC is about Welsh independence, why would anyone vote for them who was against independence? Bit like someone voting for the Brexit party but wanting to remain in the EU! Plaid do a very good job of not talking about independence and positioning themselves as the protest party (and I’m a Lib Dem saying that!)
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Post by manchesterman on Oct 31, 2020 15:10:16 GMT
ah ok, I bow to your far greater knowledge of welsh politics than mine
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,491
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Post by johng on Oct 31, 2020 16:52:10 GMT
Well that is a bit weird then. The whole ethos of PC is about Welsh independence, why would anyone vote for them who was against independence? Bit like someone voting for the Brexit party but wanting to remain in the EU! Plaid do a very good job of not talking about independence and positioning themselves as the protest party (and I’m a Lib Dem saying that!)
They've had a bit of success running as lefter than left in South Wales. Even they were shocked by their success in the first assembly elections. In 2016, they won the Rhondda and were actually, I thought, very unlucky with some near misses (Cardiff West/ Blaenau Gwent). In rural west and north Wales they seem to run as a cultural/ language-orientated agrarian party. That gives them baggage in the rest of Wales which makes it extremely difficult for them to replicate the SNP's success.
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Post by greenchristian on Oct 31, 2020 19:37:21 GMT
Well that is a bit weird then. The whole ethos of PC is about Welsh independence, why would anyone vote for them who was against independence? Bit like someone voting for the Brexit party but wanting to remain in the EU! In addition to what's already been said about people voting for parties for reasons not related to their policies, Plaid Cymru are seen more as the party of the Welsh language than they are as the party for Welsh independence.
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European Lefty
Labour
Can be bribed with salted liquorice
Posts: 5,491
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Post by European Lefty on Nov 1, 2020 0:36:00 GMT
Arent votes for PC, by default, a vote in favour of independence? Maybe it's a particularly good poll for PC? No, not according to the opinion polls anyway. The last Yougov poll had.
Support for Independence (Yes / No) More yes than no:
Plaid Cymru - 45 / 33 Labour - 39 / 37
More no than yes: Lib Dem - 25 / 52 Conservative - 8 / 86
The real interesting detail to me is the sheer number of 'don't knows' among Labour and Plaid supporters (21% each of their supporters). Tory voters seem a lot clearer on being against it.
That surprises me
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