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Post by Penddu on Jun 11, 2020 11:16:41 GMT
Welsh Parliament polling only I think.
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,524
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Post by johng on Jun 11, 2020 13:40:57 GMT
Welsh General Election voting intention. More results: centrefor.wales/2020/06/11/cws-and-survation-polling-part-2/ Constituency (%) Labour - 40 Conservatives - 26 Plaid - 18 BXP - 8 LD - 7 Regional List (%) Labour - 36 Conservatives - 23 Plaid - 22 BXP - 10 LD - 7 Something about these results is off. Labour is up quite a bit and the Tories and Plaid down several points on Yougov's poll. And there's no way the Brexit party is polling 10% when they are around 1-2% in UK polls and got 3% in the Yougov poll when the fieldwork was done over broadly the same period. I'm not saying Yougov is right and this is definitely worng, but Yougov have conducted lots of Welsh polls and have proved fairly accurate in previous elections.
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Post by IceAgeComing on Jun 11, 2020 14:10:49 GMT
The only thing I can think is that they prompted the Brexit Party and yougov don't and that does affect responses but, like, it also has a habit of inflating minor party share of the vote. Makes me suspicious about the whole thing though.
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Post by Penddu on Jun 11, 2020 15:27:50 GMT
Scully was scathing of the way the questions were asked...said that the Constituency question was ok - but the regional vote asked for your 'second' vote...implying a second choice which would distort the response.
So he believes the Brexit Party vote in particular is way off
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Post by manchesterman on Jun 11, 2020 17:32:57 GMT
Well Farage has more time to devote to the Brexit Party ltd now. I wonder what he did with all that money he got from his "members"??
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Post by IceAgeComing on Jun 11, 2020 18:47:47 GMT
Scully was scathing of the way the questions were asked...said that the Constituency question was ok - but the regional vote asked for your 'second' vote...implying a second choice which would distort the response. So he believes the Brexit Party vote in particular is way off If this was the only issue then the Brexit Party wouldn't be on 8% for the constituency vote and there would be more differences between the two - that isn't an issue with this poll: with the data they have there the differences (Labour and Tories slightly down, Plaid and Brexit Party slightly up) are reasonable, although the Lib Dems holding steady would be a surprise. The error is different to that: either there's a strong Brexit Party preference in Wales that, well, everyone is missing other than them or sometimes is fundamentally up with the sample they had in this poll.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jun 11, 2020 21:55:41 GMT
Looking at it with changes from last welsh assembly elections makes ot look a little more plausible but even then Labour still look very high given those were decent results for Labour in 2016 and Brexit aint going that high
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jun 11, 2020 22:10:19 GMT
If you redistribute Brexit party votes by 2019 vote you get a Labour lead of 12 on constituency and 8 on the list
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,812
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Jun 12, 2020 7:46:08 GMT
Welsh General Election voting intention. More results: centrefor.wales/2020/06/11/cws-and-survation-polling-part-2/ Constituency (%) Labour - 40 Conservatives - 26 Plaid - 18 BXP - 8 LD - 7 Regional List (%) Labour - 36 Conservatives - 23 Plaid - 22 BXP - 10 LD - 7 Something about these results is off. Labour is up quite a bit and the Tories and Plaid down several points on Yougov's poll. And there's no way the Brexit party is polling 10% when they are around 1-2% in UK polls and got 3% in the Yougov poll when the fieldwork was done over broadly the same period. I'm not saying Yougov is right and this is definitely worng, but Yougov have conducted lots of Welsh polls and have proved fairly accurate in previous elections. And where are the Greens eh? The Greens who polled 3% on the regional list?
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,681
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 12, 2020 10:53:22 GMT
Welsh General Election voting intention. More results: centrefor.wales/2020/06/11/cws-and-survation-polling-part-2/ Constituency (%) Labour - 40 Conservatives - 26 Plaid - 18 BXP - 8 LD - 7 Regional List (%) Labour - 36 Conservatives - 23 Plaid - 22 BXP - 10 LD - 7 Something about these results is off. Labour is up quite a bit and the Tories and Plaid down several points on Yougov's poll. And there's no way the Brexit party is polling 10% when they are around 1-2% in UK polls and got 3% in the Yougov poll when the fieldwork was done over broadly the same period. I'm not saying Yougov is right and this is definitely worng, but Yougov have conducted lots of Welsh polls and have proved fairly accurate in previous elections. This poll does look a bit odd, but YouGov's Welsh surveys do seem to have Labour on the low side a bit.
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neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
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Post by neilm on Jun 12, 2020 13:30:27 GMT
Not the same story for his comrade Vaughan Gethen who has dropped about 6 points unsurprisingly given the slating he's taken over breaking social distancinge Let's be honest here. Gething is really annoying. He dresses like a spiv and won't go down well in most of Wales. He's very marmite- not as much as Leighton Andrews, and although he's not quite reached the up-his-own-backside qualities of Andrews it is surely only a matter of time.
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 12, 2020 14:00:56 GMT
Drakeford is an interesting character as he was actually quite a prominent academic in social policy. It's typical of Labour academics who enter politics that they either don't like it much (Stuart Holland) or end up doing the committee and scrutiny route (Tony Wright).
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
Posts: 3,558
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Post by cibwr on Jun 14, 2020 8:08:29 GMT
Not the same story for his comrade Vaughan Gethen who has dropped about 6 points unsurprisingly given the slating he's taken over breaking social distancinge Let's be honest here. Gething is really annoying. He dresses like a spiv and won't go down well in most of Wales. He's very marmite- not as much as Leighton Andrews, and although he's not quite reached the up-his-own-backside qualities of Andrews it is surely only a matter of time. Vaughan is likely to be the next Welsh Labour Leader.... I had a run in with him when he stood for council in Butetown and am not a fan.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jun 14, 2020 8:31:06 GMT
Let's be honest here. Gething is really annoying. He dresses like a spiv and won't go down well in most of Wales. He's very marmite- not as much as Leighton Andrews, and although he's not quite reached the up-his-own-backside qualities of Andrews it is surely only a matter of time. Vaughan is likely to be the next Welsh Labour Leader.... I had a run in with him when he stood for council in Butetown and am not a fan. surely that depends on the outcome of the next election. If Drakford gets back in on numbers like this he won't be going anywhere
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Post by finsobruce on Jun 14, 2020 8:40:28 GMT
Vaughan is likely to be the next Welsh Labour Leader.... I had a run in with him when he stood for council in Butetown and am not a fan. surely that depends on the outcome of the next election. If Drakford gets back in on numbers like this he won't be going anywhere You never can tell. Ken Livingstone became leader of the GLC when Andrew McIntosh had lead Labour into the election victory.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jun 14, 2020 8:46:34 GMT
surely that depends on the outcome of the next election. If Drakford gets back in on numbers like this he won't be going anywhere You never can tell. Ken Livingstone became leader of the GLC when Andrew McIntosh had lead Labour into the election victory. though that was a very different. Leader of GLC wasnt elected by membership and Labour's victory in GLC elections saw a swathe of new members join the left caucus. The leader of GLC wasn't a national figure that's gained popularity in how they've manged the pandemic
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Post by finsobruce on Jun 14, 2020 8:53:00 GMT
You never can tell. Ken Livingstone became leader of the GLC when Andrew McIntosh had lead Labour into the election victory. though that was a very different. Leader of GLC wasnt elected by membership and Labour's victory in GLC elections saw a swathe of new members join the left caucus. The leader of GLC wasn't a national figure that's gained popularity in how they've manged the pandemic Just for clarification I am not making a prediction. . All situations are different. The point is that you can't tell in advance. And Livingstone became a national figure (most leaders of the GLC had been pretty well known before that too apart from possibly the first).
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,681
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 14, 2020 9:11:27 GMT
Let's be honest here. Gething is really annoying. He dresses like a spiv and won't go down well in most of Wales. He's very marmite- not as much as Leighton Andrews, and although he's not quite reached the up-his-own-backside qualities of Andrews it is surely only a matter of time. Vaughan is likely to be the next Welsh Labour Leader.... I had a run in with him when he stood for council in Butetown and am not a fan. Hmmm, didn't quite a few think that last time too?
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jun 14, 2020 9:17:00 GMT
though that was a very different. Leader of GLC wasnt elected by membership and Labour's victory in GLC elections saw a swathe of new members join the left caucus. The leader of GLC wasn't a national figure that's gained popularity in how they've manged the pandemic Just for clarification I am not making a prediction. . All situations are different. The point is that you can't tell in advance. And Livingstone became a national figure (most leaders of the GLC had been pretty well known before that too apart from possibly the first). I didn't think you were I'm going tbh the only other leader i can remember is Herbert Morrison
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Post by finsobruce on Jun 14, 2020 9:22:50 GMT
Just for clarification I am not making a prediction. . All situations are different. The point is that you can't tell in advance. And Livingstone became a national figure (most leaders of the GLC had been pretty well known before that too apart from possibly the first). I didn't think you were I'm going tbh the only other leader i can remember is Herbert MorrisonHe was leader of the LCC , the forerunner of the GLC. GLC leaders were Bill Fiske, (Lord) Desmond Plummer, Reg Goodwin and Horace Cutler.
Bill Fiske was the Labour candidate in Hornsey in 1945, who was kiboshed by the very large Communist vote. After losing control in 1967 he was made head of the Decimal currency board, so maybe on second thoughts he was probably better known nationally than Goodwin.
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