pl
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,568
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Post by pl on Jun 4, 2020 15:08:09 GMT
In Wales the Brexit and Ukip parties appear to have taken former Labour votes disproportionately. In 2017 the withdrawal of UKIP candidate helped Labour win back Vale of Clwyd. I suspect that’s confusing correlation with causation. National polling showed the UKIP vote went very disproportionately to the Conservatives in 2017, with the Labour gains coming from the Conservatives (mainly remainers) as well as the Greens, non-voters etc. The Vale of Clywd of course has now had three head to heads between Dr James Davies and Chris Ruane. I would be as bold to say that nobody other than James Davies would have won it for the Conservatives in 2015 given his local links and strong background in health (an important issue in the seat at the time), while nobody other than Chris Ruane could have won it back for Labour in 2017 given his strong name recognition. I'm guessing Chris Ruane retires now.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jun 4, 2020 21:09:35 GMT
Mark Drakford is actually doing quite well. The number of people who didn't know who he was droped by 16 since April and his favorability numbers have jumped up by a similar amount. Not the same story for his comrade Vaughan Gethen who has dropped about 6 points unsurprisingly given the slating he's taken over breaking social distancing
However, no where near the collapse Boris and Matt Hancock have had. Down 54 points and 46 respectively. Rishi only down by 13 in comparison but he isn't the PM or Health sec tbf his time may come
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jun 4, 2020 22:01:44 GMT
The satire this forum has been waiting for: He’s fucking trolling us now... Btw, Results tomorrow on Independence, more powers, status quo, abolition of Assembly/Senedd etc.
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Post by Penddu on Jun 5, 2020 7:38:57 GMT
He has already stated poll will show highest ever support for independence.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jun 5, 2020 8:57:18 GMT
The next poll should ask "Do you think Roger Awan-Scully's dinosaur shirt was a good idea?"
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Post by Yaffles on Jun 5, 2020 9:28:34 GMT
The next poll should ask "Do you think Roger Awan-Scully's dinosaur shirt was a good idea?" I absolutely love it - top shirt work
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jun 5, 2020 9:32:55 GMT
He has already stated poll will show highest ever support for independence. 24%. Exactly the same proportion as who would scrap the Senedd/Parliament (Assembly)
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,813
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 5, 2020 11:44:03 GMT
Highest ever in a YouGov survey perhaps, but I'm sure its scored better with another pollster?
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
Posts: 3,559
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Post by cibwr on Jun 5, 2020 11:44:20 GMT
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,536
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Post by johng on Jun 5, 2020 13:54:37 GMT
Full tables here: docs.cdn.yougov.com/wkgo1h4rcp/Results_WelshBarometer_MayJune2020_W.pdfSome interesting things for me: - The poll is a little confusing in parts. Only 16% want independence but 25% would vote for it if there were a referendum tomorrow. I suppose something for both sides of the argument there. - People seem to becoming more polarized. There used to be a hefty margin of people who wanted to the same or more powers for the Assembly. Now numbers seem to be slowly drifting to either abolish or independence. - It surprised me how close the independence vs no devolution question was. Still a strong margin for the union, but 45% vs 33% is hardly a ringing endorsement of the union. -Mark Drakeford has had a good pandemic. A lot more people know who he is and his popularity has increased and he's now the second most popular after Starmer. - People seem much more satisfied with how the Welsh government are doing than the UK one. 62% vs 34% thinking each is doing well respectively. Not quite as strong as the Scottish numbers, but I am sure it will make some happy. -Plaid Cymru voters are most likely to think the Welsh government is doing well and the UK one badly. It's odd too to see that Plaid Cymru voters trust Mark Drakeford more than Labour voters.
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
Posts: 3,559
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Post by cibwr on Jun 6, 2020 9:23:25 GMT
It is interesting, and I think that the fall in the number of people wanting less devolution is fairly matched by an increase in those that want it abolished, so I'd say yes there there is a clear polarisation effect here. Clearly people want a slower relaxation of lockdown and support the Welsh Government, who have been a lot clearer than the UK government in England. It hasn't helped with Welsh Tories constantly wanting Wales to match England exactly - swimming against the prevailing mood in Wales. Johnson's shambolic performance on TV contrasts with a clear message from Mark Drakeford and that has resonated here. I think that the interesting figures are the indicurious figures, suggesting a lot of winnable people for the argument - and in many ways Johnson is making the argument for the end of the Union. As Wales becomes more indiconfident Johnson replies by being more pro union, union flags on everything - not talking to senior figures in the devolved governments - freezing them out of meetings, giving preference to his advisers and letting them speak while only permitting devolved representatives as observers, not communicating major changes to the devolved administrations before announcing them etc... plus the remarkable scenes from Westminster, they can hardly inculcate respect for the union institutions.
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
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Post by clyde1998 on Jun 6, 2020 20:22:58 GMT
Full tables here: docs.cdn.yougov.com/wkgo1h4rcp/Results_WelshBarometer_MayJune2020_W.pdfSome interesting things for me: - The poll is a little confusing in parts. Only 16% want independence but 25% would vote for it if there were a referendum tomorrow. I suppose something for both sides of the argument there. - People seem to becoming more polarized. There used to be a hefty margin of people who wanted to the same or more powers for the Assembly. Now numbers seem to be slowly drifting to either abolish or independence. - It surprised me how close the independence vs no devolution question was. Still a strong margin for the union, but 45% vs 33% is hardly a ringing endorsement of the union. -Mark Drakeford has had a good pandemic. A lot more people know who he is and his popularity has increased and he's now the second most popular after Starmer. - People seem much more satisfied with how the Welsh government are doing than the UK one. 62% vs 34% thinking each is doing well respectively. Not quite as strong as the Scottish numbers, but I am sure it will make some happy. -Plaid Cymru voters are most likely to think the Welsh government is doing well and the UK one badly. It's odd too to see that Plaid Cymru voters trust Mark Drakeford more than Labour voters. On the first point, it was very common in Scotland to see that prior to the 2014 referendum campaign. A decent percentage of those who wanted more powers for the Parliament in a five-way question would vote for independence in a straight Yes-No contest; that might depend on the level of devolution the respondent wants. I imagine something very similar is happening here. It might also be that respondents think that more devolution is a step that needs to be taken to reach independence (ie. independence is the ultimate preference, but right now the respondent believe more devolution is required to reach 50%+ on a straight Yes-No question).
It's also worth nothing that a clear majority of those saying they'll vote Conservative at both Westminster and the Senedd [Constituency] (58%) want to abolish the Assembly. I wonder if part of that is because Labour have run the Assembly since 1999 and it's unlikely the Conservatives will be in power in the near future - even their 6%/8% lead in the last poll would've allowed a stable Lab-Plaid coalition to keep the Tories out of power. It's interesting that a similar trend to what you described (movement to the extremes) was happening in Scotland around 2004-06, before the SNP gained power - ~44% wanted devolution, ~15% wanted no devolution and around ~33% wanted independence (remainder undecided). It took a different government to try different things to get people to firmly establish the institution.
I would like to know how many people know what powers it has. I may have mentioned this before, but there was a poll in 2014 that showed that less than half of Welsh people knew health was devolved [ link]. Which of these levels of government do you think are mainly responsible for [x] in Wales? [ICM for BBC - May 2014] The NHS - UK govt 43%; Welsh govt 48% Education - UK govt 31%; Welsh govt 61% Policing - UK govt 50%; Welsh govt 42% I'd hope the NHS figure has improved substantially given the current situation, but the poor understanding of who controls what may be reflected within the 'what powers do think the Senedd should have?' question.
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,536
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Post by johng on Jun 6, 2020 22:52:28 GMT
I'm not really an expert on Scottish polling, but it's a pleasure to get some insights and comparisons.
It's always been the case that some who would like more powers would prefer independence rather than a reduction of powers, but it has never been this high before. Less than half saying they'll vote for the union is a little shocking.
I'm not sure whether it's the chicken or the egg that comes first with Conservative voters. Of course it's incredibly unlikely that they'll form any government in the Senedd, but their voters tend to be the type who would be anti-devolution even if the Conservatives were in power.
I'm guessing that question hasn't been asked for quite some time as I haven't seen it in any tables (though I haven't looked that thoroughly). Looking at the rating for Drakeford, a lot of people have taken more notice of what is going on in the Welsh government. There has never been such a clear divergence between Wales and England and it has led in the headlines of the UK news for day after day and week after week. But it is also an area of great confusion. I wonder if some people will think that policing is devolved due to the different levels of fines and rules on traveling for exercise daytrips. 42% already thought so in 2014.
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Post by Penddu on Jun 8, 2020 11:56:38 GMT
Consider that Wales rejected devolution in 1979 by 85% and came close to rejecting it in 1997 by almost 50% - the equivalent support today is now only around 25%.
At the same time support for full independence has grown from 5-10% to 25-30% in the same period. Independence has moved from a niche to the mainstream. Not yet a majority but now within striking distance.
I am very pleased with that poll - especially the trends in the 0-100% questioning.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jun 8, 2020 12:38:22 GMT
Independence does seem as popular as it was in Scotland before the referendum
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Post by afleitch on Jun 8, 2020 13:52:08 GMT
Independence does seem as popular as it was in Scotland before the referendum It's a demographically steeper hill to climb but it's a good base.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jun 10, 2020 9:28:08 GMT
A new Welsh poll comming tomorrow:
Not sure about the build up “quite interesting” Roger Scully I’m sure could do better.
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,536
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Post by johng on Jun 10, 2020 14:04:50 GMT
'Quite interesting' isn't on the Scully scale.
Great to see so many Welsh polls released though. Yougov has a bit of a monopoly on it so I wonder if Survation will show anything different.
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Post by Penddu on Jun 11, 2020 10:34:50 GMT
Well that is a new interpretation of 'interesting'....
Update - I see the interesting stuff is being released at 4pm.
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,536
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Post by johng on Jun 11, 2020 10:39:36 GMT
Initial results have been released. Nothing too surprising as most people (Net about 70-80%) would like to see businesses supported and income taxes reduced because of the virus and lockdown. Questions are quite leading as one would expect for a 'free-market' think tank. The only interesting question is that 52% think the Welsh government should choose its own path on 'getting the country back on its feet after lockdown' with 37% preferring a UK-wide approach and 11% stating they don't know. Voting intention votes at 4pm according to their Twitter.
Edit:
This is what the founder has posted. ''A very interesting set of results out today in our polling.
Support for tax cuts and acknowledgement that lockdown is severely damaging the Welsh economy. ''
Anyone would think he had a motive when thinking of the questions in this poll...
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