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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jun 1, 2020 16:32:53 GMT
It promises to be the most historic poll since the last one. He is a genuine gold-plated pratt, isn't he The satire this forum has been waiting for:
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Post by finsobruce on Jun 1, 2020 16:36:28 GMT
He is a genuine gold-plated pratt, isn't he The satire this forum has been waiting for: "This could be a case for Mulder and Scully"
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 1, 2020 17:59:43 GMT
What really would blow your mind. Tories over 50%? Labour over 60%? Combined total at 90%? Plaid at 30%? Lib Dems at 20%? If it's none of these then he is talking shit
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 1, 2020 18:03:42 GMT
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Post by curiousliberal on Jun 1, 2020 18:22:24 GMT
*Outside of Westminster elections.
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Post by Penddu on Jun 2, 2020 18:20:30 GMT
We do have another Scully poll on the way...arriving Thursday. No hyping....yet!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 2, 2020 23:12:06 GMT
We do have another Scully poll on the way...arriving Thursday. No hyping....yet! He is a genuine gold-plated pratt, isn't he The satire this forum has been waiting for:
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 4, 2020 10:29:03 GMT
I know it is genuinely hard to tell the difference, but that really *was* satire.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 4, 2020 11:12:22 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jun 4, 2020 11:12:40 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 4, 2020 11:15:38 GMT
Didn't knock my fucking socks off but 3 interesting points:
A) Tories perhaps unsurprisingly doing worse in Wales B) their vote in pretty split between Labour and Plaid. Given the conservative nationalist sentiment in North Wales unsurprising C) Abolish may get some representation. Most interesting even if its not all tgat surprising either
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 4, 2020 11:17:18 GMT
Didn't knock my fucking socks off but 3 interesting points: A) Tories perhaps unsurprisingly doing worse in Wales B) their vote in pretty split between Labour and Plaid. Given the conservative nationalist sentiment in North Wales unsurprising C) Abolish may get some representation. Most interesting even if its not all tgat surprising either though unlike the rest of uk Labour would lose MPs on these numbers
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Post by justin124 on Jun 4, 2020 11:30:27 GMT
Didn't knock my fucking socks off but 3 interesting points: A) Tories perhaps unsurprisingly doing worse in Wales B) their vote in pretty split between Labour and Plaid. Given the conservative nationalist sentiment in North Wales unsurprising C) Abolish may get some representation. Most interesting even if its not all tgat surprising either though unlike the rest of uk Labour would lose MPs on these numbers In the past Sully's polls have tended to underestimate Labour's position - though not by a great deal.
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Rural Radical
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Now living in a Labour held ward at Borough level for the first time in many years
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Post by Rural Radical on Jun 4, 2020 11:59:45 GMT
Didn't knock my fucking socks off but 3 interesting points: A) Tories perhaps unsurprisingly doing worse in Wales B) their vote in pretty split between Labour and Plaid. Given the conservative nationalist sentiment in North Wales unsurprising C) Abolish may get some representation. Most interesting even if its not all tgat surprising either though unlike the rest of uk Labour would lose MPs on these numbers Only 1 seat (Alyn & Desside) and only just
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 4, 2020 12:29:31 GMT
The Tories have come on leaps and bounds in Wales in the last 15 years. You could argue the same about them in the North but significantly more groundwork was put into Wales by Cameron. Labour did make up ground in opposition but has tended to throw it away at election time.
Alyn & Desside by any rights should have been a tory gain in December but Brexit party and a candidate with foreign sounding name helped Labour get through the middle
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Post by justin124 on Jun 4, 2020 13:01:17 GMT
The Tories have come on leaps and bounds in Wales in the last 15 years. You could argue the same about them in the North but significantly more groundwork was put into Wales by Cameron. Labour did make up ground in opposition but has tended to throw it away at election time. Alyn & Desside by any rights should have been a tory gain in December but Brexit party and a candidate with foreign sounding name helped Labour get through the middle In Wales the Brexit and Ukip parties appear to have taken former Labour votes disproportionately. In 2017 the withdrawal of UKIP candidate helped Labour win back Vale of Clwyd.
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Post by andrewp on Jun 4, 2020 13:20:56 GMT
The Tories have come on leaps and bounds in Wales in the last 15 years. You could argue the same about them in the North but significantly more groundwork was put into Wales by Cameron. Labour did make up ground in opposition but has tended to throw it away at election time. Alyn & Desside by any rights should have been a tory gain in December but Brexit party and a candidate with foreign sounding name helped Labour get through the middle Wales has gradually been moving towards the Conservatives for a while. In 1959, they got a national majority of 100 and only won 8 seats in Wales. The 34% they got in Wales in December was higher than in 1983 or 1987, when they won bigger national majorities. Alyn and Deeside, I suspect, was one of a couple of sears that the Conservatives would have gained with a different candidate, although the swing in Alyn at 5.6% was similar the 5.8% achieved in gaining nearby Wrexham.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Jun 4, 2020 13:40:35 GMT
Alyn & Desside by any rights should have been a tory gain in December but Brexit party and a candidate with foreign sounding name helped Labour get through the middle In Wales the Brexit and Ukip parties appear to have taken former Labour votes disproportionately. In 2017 the withdrawal of UKIP candidate helped Labour win back Vale of Clwyd. I suspect that’s confusing correlation with causation. National polling showed the UKIP vote went very disproportionately to the Conservatives in 2017, with the Labour gains coming from the Conservatives (mainly remainers) as well as the Greens, non-voters etc.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 4, 2020 14:23:23 GMT
The Tories have come on leaps and bounds in Wales in the last 15 years. You could argue the same about them in the North but significantly more groundwork was put into Wales by Cameron. Labour did make up ground in opposition but has tended to throw it away at election time. Alyn & Desside by any rights should have been a tory gain in December but Brexit party and a candidate with foreign sounding name helped Labour get through the middle In Wales the Brexit and Ukip parties appear to have taken former Labour votes disproportionately. In 2017 the withdrawal of UKIP candidate helped Labour win back Vale of Clwyd. same thing happened in Canterbury
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Post by justin124 on Jun 4, 2020 14:26:01 GMT
The Tories have come on leaps and bounds in Wales in the last 15 years. You could argue the same about them in the North but significantly more groundwork was put into Wales by Cameron. Labour did make up ground in opposition but has tended to throw it away at election time. Alyn & Desside by any rights should have been a tory gain in December but Brexit party and a candidate with foreign sounding name helped Labour get through the middle Wales has gradually been moving towards the Conservatives for a while. In 1959, they got a national majority of 100 and only won 8 seats in Wales. The 34% they got in Wales in December was higher than in 1983 or 1987, when they won bigger national majorities. Alyn and Deeside, I suspect, was one of a couple of sears that the Conservatives would have gained with a different candidate, although the swing in Alyn at 5.6% was similar the 5.8% achieved in gaining nearby Wrexham. The predecessor seat - East Flint - very nearly fell to the Tories in 1959 when the GB vote share lead was just 4.2%.
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