Welsh polls

[East Anglian Lefty]

Dec 14, 2013 12:18:24 GMT cibwr said:

I of two minds on the change of methodology, I am not sure that the regional list vote is accurate, I think it inflates the Labour vote and depresses the Plaid vote. I suspect in the real world people are waking up to tactical voting for the list - and that will depress the Labour vote as the electorate work out how the electoral system works.

Not really, no. It makes a difference of 3% to the Plaid vote. There effect is much more significant for the LD and UKIP votes. Which suggests that Plaid may not even be the favoured second choice of most Labour voters.

[cibwr]

Actually there is considerable evidence that Plaid is the preferred second choice by a very high proportion of Labour voters, blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2013/11/15/stv-in-wales-a-follow-up-post/


Of those indicating that the Conservatives would have received their first preference vote, second preferences were allocated as follows:

4.2% Labour

23.5% Liberal Democrats

13.9% Plaid

6.9% Greens

30.5% UKIP



For Labour first preference voters, second preferences were:

3.6% Conservatives

10.3% Liberal Democrats

44.9% Plaid

9.0% Greens

4.7% UKIP



For Liberal Democrat first preference supporters, second preferences were:

23.5% Conservatives

26.9% Labour

15.1% Plaid

21.0% Greens

3.4% UKIP



For Plaid Cymru supporters, second preferences were allocated:

1.6% Conservatives

30.9% Labour

21.6% Liberal Democrats

15.4% Greens

1.6% UKIP



For the (small number of) Greens, the proportions of second preferences were:

2.6% Conservatives

30.8% Labour

17.9% Liberal Democrats

17.9% Plaid

0% UKIP



Finally, for UKIP supporters, the profile of second preferences was:

37.8% Conservatives

13.5% Labour

5.4% Liberal Democrats

5.4% Plaid Cymru

4.1% Greens



So what can we make of these numbers? Overall, I think they reinforce what I said in my previous post. To do well in a preferential voting system, a party first of all needs to win lots of first preferences. But it also need to be fairly attractive to supporters of other parties to pick up vote transfers. The data suggests that while the Conservatives would do reasonably under STV in terms of first preferences, they would struggle to win many vote transfers. (I’ve only shown second preferences here, but things don’t get any better for them when you look at third or even fourth preferences). On second preferences, the Tories are not even the plurality choice among the diminished ranks of their Liberal Democrat coalition allies. They are only the most popular choice among (the then fairly small number of) UKIP supporters.

Labour would seem to do well out of STV. Not only does it gather a large number of first preferences; it is also the most popular second preference choice for Liberal Democrats and Plaid Cymru supporters, as well as among small number of Greens.

Plaid would also seem to do quite well out of STV: certainly, they are much the most popular second preference choice among the large pool of Labour supporters. However, this finding also re-emphasises a point I have made previously: there were lots of voters in 2011 who felt quite sympathetic to both Labour and Plaid, but Plaid was very poor at getting many of them to make it their first choice.

[No Offence Alan]

That European poll would mean Labour 3 MEPs, Conservatives 1 !

[libfozzy]

Which would be extremely bad news for UKIP and Plaid..... That's a lot of funding Plaid would lose......

[cibwr]

it would indeed mean 3 Labour MEPs, which would not be my choice, though on that poll finding it would be close.

[gwynthegriff]

Mar 4, 2013 20:15:52 GMT Sibboleth said:

How is 'foreigner' defined?

Birth? In which case Dafydd Wigley is a foreigner and Saunders Lewis was one. Ancestry? Danger: entering extremely dodgy territory...

Sorry, only just spotted this one.

Isn't it like pornography? Impossible to define, but you know it when you see it.

[libfozzy]

Dec 15, 2013 11:54:29 GMT cibwr said:

it would indeed mean 3 Labour MEPs, which would not be my choice, though on that poll finding it would be close.

Indeed. If it was close, given the National climate, it seems likely UKIP (god help us) would pick up a 4th seat should Labour drop to 2.

[Deleted]

Since cefin has drawn some attention towards Plaid Cymru elsewhere, I was reminded that we don't hear very much about how they - or the other parties in Wales - are faring in the VI polls. These are the latest figures - from YouGov - that were published on 17th February (changes were from the previous polls on 11 December).

Westminster VI: CON 22%(+1), LAB 47%(+1), LD 7%(-1), Plaid 11%(-1), UKIP 9%(-1)
Welsh Assembly (Const): CON 21%(+2), LAB 42%(-1), LD 9%(nc), Plaid 19%(-1), UKIP 5%(-2)
Welsh Assembly (Reg): CON 19%(nc), LAB 39%(-1), LD 9%(nc), Plaid 17%(+2), UKIP 10%(nc)
European: CON 17%(-3), LAB 39%(-2), LDEM 7%(-1), Plaid 12%(-1), UKIP 18%(+5)

[cibwr]

Hopefully the situation with Welsh polling is improving - we should see greater regularity.

[Sibboleth]

oh here we go

[marksenior]

It appears ICM did a Welsh VI poll for BBC Wales at then end of February . Not seen any publication of the results before but the data tables are on the ICM website .

Westminster VI are Lab 42 Con 24 Plaid 14 Lib Dem 9 UKIP 7

[LDCaerdydd]

We asked about voting intentions for Westminster, the National Assembly, and the forthcoming European Parliament election. First, Westminster. The voting intention figures (with changes on the last YouGov poll, the February Welsh Political Barometer, in brackets) were:

Labour: 45% (-2)

Conservative: 24% (+2)

LibDems: 7% (no change)

Plaid Cymru: 11% (no change)

UKIP: 10% (+1)

Others: 3% (-1)

Applying these figures across Wales (and assuming, as per usual, uniform swings from the last general election), this yields the following projected result:


Labour: 31 (holding the 26 seats won in 2010, plus gaining: Arfon, Cardiff Central, Cardiff North, Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire, and the Vale of Glamorgan)

Conservative: 6 (losing Cardiff North, Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire, and the Vale of Glamorgan to Labour, but gaining Brecon and Radnor from the Liberal Democrats)

LibDems: 1 (holding Ceredigion, but losing Brecon and Radnor to the Conservatives and Cardiff Central to Labour)

Plaid: 2 (holding Dwyfor Meirionydd and Carmarthen East & Dinefwr, but losing Arfon to Labour)


For the National Assembly, we see the following figures (with changes on the February Welsh Political Barometer, again in brackets):


Constituency Vote

Labour: 41% (-1)

Conservative: 21% (no change)

LibDems: 8% (-1)

Plaid Cymru: 20% (+1)

UKIP: 7% (+2)

Others: 2% (-1)


List Vote

Labour: 37% (-2)

Conservative: 21% (+2)

LibDems: 7% (-2)

Plaid Cymru: 19% (+2)

UKIP: 10% (no change)

Others: 2% (-1)


Again applying these figures across Wales and assuming uniform swings from the last Assembly election, we see the following constituency results:

Labour: 27 (holding all the seats won in 2011 except for Llanelli)

Conservative: 6 (unchanged from 2011)

LibDems: 1 (holding Brecon and Radnor)

Plaid: 6 (holding all seats won in 2011, and gaining Llanelli)

And these results for the regional list seats:

North: 2 Conservative, 1 UKIP, 1 Plaid

Mid & West: 2 Labour, 1 Liberal Democrat, 1 UKIP

South West: 2 Conservative, 1 Plaid, 1 UKIP

South Central: 2 Conservative, 1 Plaid, 1 UKIP

South East: 2 Plaid, 1 Conservative, 1 UKIP

Producing the following final overall outcome (Constituency + List = 2017 prediction) - (2011 Constituency + List = 2011 total)


Labour.....27.....2....29 - 28...2...30
Con..........6.......7....13 - 6....8....14
Lib Dem..1.......1.....2 - 1....4.....5
Plaid........6.......5.....11 - 5....6......11
UKIP.......0.......5.....5 - 0....0.....0

Finally, what about the European Parliament election in May? This was the level of support for the parties (with changes from the February Welsh Political Barometer again in brackets):

Labour: 39% (no change)

Conservative: 18% (+1)

LibDems: 7% (no change)

Plaid Cymru: 11% (-1)

UKIP: 20% (+2)

Others: 6% (-1)



If these levels of support were repeated in next month’s election, Wales would elect two Labour MEPs, one UKIP representative and one Conservative, with Plaid Cymru’s Jill Evans losing her seat.


More = blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2014/04/24/a-new-voting-intention-poll-in-wales/

[LDCaerdydd]

A new Welsh Poll:

We asked about voting intentions for Westminster, the National Assembly, and the forthcoming European Parliament election. First, Westminster. The voting intention figures (with changes on the last YouGov poll, the February Welsh Political Barometer, in brackets) were:

Labour: 45% (-2)

Conservative: 24% (+2)

LibDems: 7% (no change)

Plaid Cymru: 11% (no change)

UKIP: 10% (+1)

Others: 3% (-1)

Applying these figures across Wales (and assuming, as per usual, uniform swings from the last general election), this yields the following projected result:


Labour: 31 (holding the 26 seats won in 2010, plus gaining: Arfon, Cardiff Central, Cardiff North, Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire, and the Vale of Glamorgan)

Conservative: 6 (losing Cardiff North, Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire, and the Vale of Glamorgan to Labour, but gaining Brecon and Radnor from the Liberal Democrats)

LibDems: 1 (holding Ceredigion, but losing Brecon and Radnor to the Conservatives and Cardiff Central to Labour)

Plaid: 2 (holding Dwyfor Meirionydd and Carmarthen East & Dinefwr, but losing Arfon to Labour)


For the National Assembly, we see the following figures (with changes on the February Welsh Political Barometer, again in brackets):


Constituency Vote

Labour: 41% (-1)

Conservative: 21% (no change)

LibDems: 8% (-1)

Plaid Cymru: 20% (+1)

UKIP: 7% (+2)

Others: 2% (-1)


List Vote

Labour: 37% (-2)

Conservative: 21% (+2)

LibDems: 7% (-2)

Plaid Cymru: 19% (+2)

UKIP: 10% (no change)

Others: 2% (-1)


Again applying these figures across Wales and assuming uniform swings from the last Assembly election, we see the following constituency results:

Labour: 27 (holding all the seats won in 2011 except for Llanelli)

Conservative: 6 (unchanged from 2011)

LibDems: 1 (holding Brecon and Radnor)

Plaid: 6 (holding all seats won in 2011, and gaining Llanelli)

And these results for the regional list seats:

North: 2 Conservative, 1 UKIP, 1 Plaid

Mid & West: 2 Labour, 1 Liberal Democrat, 1 UKIP

South West: 2 Conservative, 1 Plaid, 1 UKIP

South Central: 2 Conservative, 1 Plaid, 1 UKIP

South East: 2 Plaid, 1 Conservative, 1 UKIP

Producing the following final overall outcome (Constituency + List = 2017 prediction) - (2011 Constituency + List = 2011 total)


Labour.....27.....2....29 - 28...2...30
Con..........6.......7....13 - 6....8....14
Lib Dem..1.......1.....2 - 1....4.....5
Plaid........6.......5.....11 - 5....6......11
UKIP.......0.......5.....5 - 0....0.....0

Finally, what about the European Parliament election in May? This was the level of support for the parties (with changes from the February Welsh Political Barometer again in brackets):

Labour: 39% (no change)

Conservative: 18% (+1)

LibDems: 7% (no change)

Plaid Cymru: 11% (-1)

UKIP: 20% (+2)

Others: 6% (-1)



If these levels of support were repeated in next month’s election, Wales would elect two Labour MEPs, one UKIP representative and one Conservative, with Plaid Cymru’s Jill Evans losing her seat.


More = blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2014/04/24/a-new-voting-intention-poll-in-wales/

[iolo]

Mar 4, 2013 20:15:52 GMT Sibboleth said:

How is 'foreigner' defined? Birth? In which case Dafydd Wigley is a foreigner and Saunders Lewis was one. Ancestry? Danger: entering extremely dodgy territory...

Whether you are part of the country or a squalid intruder, I suppose. The Somalis are a lot better than the Home Counties shits, for instance, in that respect. Family is the main thing, and the desire to be part of a people.

[johng]

New Yougov poll for Wales

EU
Labour 33% (-6)
UKIP 23% (+5)
Conservatives 16% (-1)
Plaid Cymru 15% (+3%)
Lib Dems 7% (-+)
Other 8% (+1)

Of those who say they will 'definitely vote':
Labour 32%
UKIP 22%
Plaid Cymru 17%
Conservative 16%
Liberal Democrats 7%
Others 5%

With these results Labour and UKIP would safely get a seat. The final two seats will be a game of musical-chairs between Labour, Conservatives and Plaid.


In an EU 'in/out' referendum the poll says
In- 44% Out- 33%


Other Polls
Westminster
Labour 43% (-4)
Conservative 22% (no change)
Plaid Cymru 11% (no change)
UKIP 13% (+4)
Liberal Democrats 7% (no change)
Others 4% (no change)

Assembly Constituency Vote (and total projected seats)
Labour 39% (-3) (29 (-1))
Conservative 20% (-1) (12 (-2))
Plaid Cymru 19% (no change) (10 (-1))
Liberal Democrats 8% (-1) (1 (-4))
UKIP 10% (+5) (8 (+8))
Others 3%

[cibwr]

New ICM poll. ICM Research interviewed a random sample of 1004 adults aged 18+ by telephone between 22nd May- 1 June, 2014. Interviews were conducted across Wales and the results have been weighted to the profile of all Welsh adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

Regional list: 38% Labour, 22% Plaid Cymru, 21% Conservative, 10% UKIP and 4% Liberal Democrats.

Constituency: Labour, 36% Plaid Cymru 24%, the Conservatives at 19%, UKIP on 13% and the Liberal Democrats on 5%.

Analysis suggests Labour would win 28 seats - down two - and Plaid Cymru 14.

It gives the Conservatives 11 seats, UKIP five and the Lib Dems just two.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-27811064

[cibwr]

blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/ for some analysis of the poll results.

The constituency seats to change hands would be: Aberconwy and Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire (gained by Plaid Cymru from the Conservatives), Llanelli (gained by Plaid Cymru from Labour), and Cardiff Central (gained by the Liberal Democrats from Labour).

Changes on the regional lists would be: Conservatives - 1, Liberal Democrats -5, UKIP +5.

[cibwr]

Latest popularity poll for party leaders in Wales....

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-28057489

The leaders received the following average scores out of ten, compared to July 2013:

Carwyn Jones 4.6 (down 0.5) Leader of the Labour Party in the National Assembly (not sure we can use the phrase Welsh leader)

Leanne Wood 4 (up 0.5) Plaid Cymru Leader

Kirsty Williams 3.9 (up 0.4) Leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats

Ed Miliband 3.7 (down 0.7)

Nigel Farage 3.5 (up 0.4)

David Cameron 3.4 (up 0.4)

Andrew RT Davies 3.2 (up 0.2) Leader of the Conservatives in the National Assembly for Wales

Nick Clegg 2.7 (down 0.2)

[cibwr]

July Welsh Political Barometer figures published!

blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2014/07/02/july-welsh-political-barometer-figures-published/

So, what were the findings for Westminster? We got the following results for general election vote intention (with changes from the May Barometer poll in brackets):

Labour 41% (-2)
Conservative 25% (+3)
Plaid Cymru 11% (no change)
UKIP 14% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 5% (-2)
Others 5% (+1)

If the changes since the 2010 general election implied by these figures were repeated uniformly across Wales, this would produce the following outcome in terms of seats (with changes from the 2010 election outcome indicated in brackets):

Labour: 28 seats (+2)
Conservatives: 8 seats (no change)
Plaid Cymru: 3 seats (no change)
Liberal Democrats: 1 seat (-2)

What about the National Assembly? For the constituency vote, the results of our new poll were (with changes from May’s Barometer poll in brackets):

Labour 37% (-2)
Conservative 21% (+1)
Plaid Cymru 20% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 5% (-3)
UKIP 13% (+3)
Others 4% (+1)

For the regional list vote, we saw the following results (with changes from the May Barometer poll again indicated):

Labour 34% (-1)
Conservative 21% (+2)
Plaid Cymru 18% (+1)
UKIP 16% (+2)
Liberal Democrats 5% (-2)
Others 7% (-1)

Taking into account both the constituency and list results, this produces the following projected seat outcome for a National Assembly election (with aggregate changes from 2011 indicated in brackets):

Labour: 29 (-1); 27 constituency AMs, 2 list AMs
Conservative: 12 (-2); 6 constituency AMs, 6 list AMs
Plaid Cymru: 10 (-1); 6 constituency AMs, 4 list AMs
UKIP 8 (+8); all 8 would be list AMs
Liberal Democrats: 1 (-4); 1 constituency AM

[cibwr]

Polling evidence of attitudes to Political parties in Wales.

blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2014/07/07/public-attitudes-to-the-political-parties/

Looks like Labour are most popular - with people next least disliking Plaid - while UKIP sharply polarises people