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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jul 23, 2013 12:26:18 GMT
YouGov Welsh Poll
Fieldwork was undertaken between 18-22 July 2013
UK General Election Voting Intention
Labour: 48% (+12%)
Conservative: 23% (-3%)
Lib-Dems: 8% (-12%)
Plaid Cymru: 9% (-2%)
UKIP: 8% (+6%)
Others: 4%
National Assembly Election Voting Intention (Constituency Vote)
Labour: 46% (+4%)
Conservative: 19% (-6%)
Lib-Dems: 8% (-3%)
Plaid Cymru: 17% (-2%)
UKIP: 6% (+6%)
Others: 3%
National Assembly Election Voting Intention (Regional List Vote)
Labour: 25% (-12%)
Conservative: 12% (-11%)
Lib-Dems: 9% (+1)
Plaid Cymru: 23% (+5%)
UKIP: 16% (+11%)
Others: 14% (+6%)
Changes are from the 2010/11 elections
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 23, 2013 12:48:25 GMT
Are those changes from the resepctive elections or from some previous poll? If the latter when was that poll taken?
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,009
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 23, 2013 13:04:28 GMT
Pretty sure they are changes from the previous elections.
IIRC this huge gulf between constituency and list Assembly figures was in a previous survey(s) - hard to see it ever happening in a real election, though.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jul 23, 2013 13:12:34 GMT
Pretty sure they are changes from the previous elections. IIRC this huge gulf between constituency and list Assembly figures was in a previous survey(s) - hard to see it ever happening in a real election, though. Up in Scotland the highest difference we've seen is about -6% on the list for Labour in 1999/2011 and +7% for the Greens in 2003. Regional VI polls for the Assembly do seem to have been rather wacky since the election |
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Post by marksenior on Jul 23, 2013 13:53:02 GMT
YouGov Welsh Poll Fieldwork was undertaken between 18-22 July 2013 UK General Election Voting Intention Labour: 48% (-3%) Conservative: 23% (+1%) Lib-Dems: 8% (-1%) Plaid Cymru: 9% (-1%) UKIP: 8% (+1%) Others: 4%(+3%) National Assembly Election Voting Intention (Constituency Vote) Labour: 46% (N/C) Conservative: 19% (-2%) Lib-Dems: 8% (-2%) Plaid Cymru: 17% (N/C) UKIP: 6% (+1%) Others: 3%(+2%) National Assembly Election Voting Intention (Regional List Vote) Labour: 25% (-1%) Conservative: 12% (-2%) Lib-Dems: 9% (-2%) Plaid Cymru: 23% (-3%) UKIP: 16% (+3%) Others: 14% (+4%) The last yougov Wales poll was February . I have repeated the above post but with changes from that poll . |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jul 23, 2013 14:50:08 GMT
Regional VI polls for the Assembly do seem to have been rather wacky since the election Indeed. I think when it's explained people are prepared to split their vote, but in reality at the ballott box they revert to type. |
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
Posts: 3,598 
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Post by cibwr on Jul 23, 2013 21:24:36 GMT
It might be that they are realising that a vote for Labour in most of the regions on the list is a waste.
Incidentally I was one the the people polled... any links to any regional breakdown?
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
Posts: 3,598
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Post by cibwr on Jul 24, 2013 7:24:17 GMT
blogs.cf.ac.uk/electionsinwales/For more info: Headline is that the National Assembly would be made up as follows: Constituency seats Labour: 31 (+3) Conservative: 3 (-3) Lib-Dems: 1 (no change) Plaid Cymru: 5 (no change) The seats to change hands would be: Aberconwy (LAB gain from CON) Carmarthen West and South Pembs (LAB gain from CON) Preseli Pembrokeshire (Lab gain from CON) Regional List Labour: 0 Conservatives: 3 (1 each in North, Mid & West, and South Central) Lib-Dems: 1 (South West) Plaid Cymru: 8 (1 each in North and Mid & West; 2 in each of South West, South Central and South East) UKIP: 8 (1 each in South West and South Central; 2 each in North, Mid & West, and South East) Overall Labour: 31 seats Conservative: 6 seats Lib-Dems: 2 seats Plaid Cymru: 13 seats UKIP: 8 seats
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jul 24, 2013 10:00:03 GMT
Pretty sure they are changes from the previous elections. IIRC this huge gulf between constituency and list Assembly figures was in a previous survey(s) - hard to see it ever happening in a real election, though. Labour got 42.3% in the constituencies in 2011 and 36.9% on the list, so there is some distinction, presumably stemming from the realisation that Labour can't get list seats anywhere bar Mid and West Wales. But the extent of the gap is a little hard to believe. |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jul 24, 2013 10:25:13 GMT
It might be that they are realising that a vote for Labour in most of the regions on the list is a waste. Indeed, I think this is linked to the wording of the question - do you remember if the voting system was explained? As much as I'd like to think that the public will be switched on to realise that a Labour vote on the list is a largely wasted one, I think we'll still see Labour top the polls in the three South Wales Regions next time and by quiet some way. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jul 24, 2013 10:36:39 GMT
Lack of understanding is part of it, probably the greater part. But it's also worth remembering that in South Wales Labour can nominate an absolute dog of a candidate and still get 25%+ without knocking on a door. The proportion of voters who could never countenance voting for anybody else is particularly high there.
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
Posts: 3,598
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Post by cibwr on Jul 25, 2013 7:05:26 GMT
It might be that they are realising that a vote for Labour in most of the regions on the list is a waste. Indeed, I think this is linked to the wording of the question - do you remember if the voting system was explained? No it wasn't it asked how you would vote in the constituencies and on the list. |
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Post by greenchristian on Jul 25, 2013 18:59:49 GMT
National Assembly Election Voting Intention (Regional List Vote) Labour: 25% (-12%) Conservative: 12% (-11%) Lib-Dems: 9% (+1) Plaid Cymru: 23% (+5%) UKIP: 16% (+11%) Others: 14% (+6%) Changes are from the 2010/11 elections That's quite a high Others figure. Do we have any idea how it breaks down? |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jul 25, 2013 19:18:12 GMT
National Assembly Election Voting Intention (Regional List Vote) Labour: 25% (-12%) Conservative: 12% (-11%) Lib-Dems: 9% (+1) Plaid Cymru: 23% (+5%) UKIP: 16% (+11%) Others: 14% (+6%) Changes are from the 2010/11 elections That's quite a high Others figure. Do we have any idea how it breaks down? All for the Green Party, obviously  I hope the Welsh Greens are going back to their constituencies to prepare for government... |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jul 25, 2013 21:26:37 GMT
That's quite a high Others figure. Do we have any idea how it breaks down? All for the Green Party, obviously I hope the Welsh Greens are going back to their constituencies to prepare for government... Green, BNP, Soc Lab, Christian = 9% in 2011, so looks a wee bit high, but we'll get the tables soon enough I think. He also said for future polls they'll include other parties in headline |
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iolo
Non-Aligned
Posts: 287
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Post by iolo on Sept 15, 2013 14:51:33 GMT
How is 'foreigner' defined? Birth? In which case Dafydd Wigley is a foreigner and Saunders Lewis was one. Ancestry? Danger: entering extremely dodgy territory... No - by being loud, oafish and offensive and voting tory or whatever that other English Party is - Empire anti-Europeans or something, I think. Anti-National Front, was it? |
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Post by kevinlarkin on Dec 11, 2013 10:24:35 GMT
www.itv.com/news/wales/2013-12-10/new-poll-tracks-welsh-voters/Westminster (change on 2010): Labour 46% (+10%) Conservative 21% (-5%) Plaid Cymru 12% (+1%) UKIP 10% (+8%) Liberal Democrats 8% (-12%) Others 4% (no change) Assembly Constituency (change on 2011): Labour 43% (+1%) Conservative 19% (-6%) Plaid Cymru 20% (+1%) Liberal Democrats 9% (-2%) UKIP 7% (+7%) Others 3% (no change) Assembly List (change on 2011): Labour 40% (+3%) Conservative 19% (-3.5%) Plaid Cymru 15% (-3%) UKIP 10% (+5%) Liberal Democrats 9% (+1%) Others 7% (-3%) European Parliament: Labour 41% Conservative 20% Plaid Cymru 13% UKIP 13% Liberal Democrats 8% Others 5%
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Dec 11, 2013 11:14:26 GMT
It's also worth posting Anthony Wells recent contribution on polling for the list in Wales - essentially the recent figures should be junked, because they mostly reflect second preferences rather than list voting intentions: ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/8524 |
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
Posts: 3,598
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Post by cibwr on Dec 14, 2013 12:18:24 GMT
I of two minds on the change of methodology, I am not sure that the regional list vote is accurate, I think it inflates the Labour vote and depresses the Plaid vote. I suspect in the real world people are waking up to tactical voting for the list - and that will depress the Labour vote as the electorate work out how the electoral system works.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,044
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Post by Sibboleth on Dec 14, 2013 12:26:05 GMT
I suspect in the real world people are waking up to tactical voting for the list There's basically no evidence to support this view. |
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I hope the Welsh Greens are going back to their constituencies to prepare for government...
