Swiss federal election 2023

[Georg Ebner]

Still 3 years to wait for the next GeneralElection (and the CH-system doesn't need EarlyElections), but 1 year after the last one the first OpinionPoll is out:

sotomo.ch/site/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/SRG-SSR-Wahlbarometer-11.2020.pdf

The - on the SurFace respectable - number of 19.620 participants is caused by SOTOMO relying on OnLine-polling: On the forums of SOTOMO and PublicBroadcaster SRF everyone can opt-in to take part; these numbers get weighted then, of course - but nerds are certainly able to participate several times from different addresses with wrong profiles. So caution is needed.

[Georg Ebner]

Sotomo came out with a new opinionPoll:

% since 2007:

Whether FDP or TheMid will be third will interest per se noBody (at least outside CH); but in CH's arguably only thrilling elections - those of the federal ministers - it could mean, that FDP will lose its 2nd seat (and thus SVP&FDP its by vote&seat-share undeserved 4/7-majority) not to TheGreens - but to TheMid! Especially, as the latter has often more StändeRäte (UpperHouse). Not, what was expected in the recent past.

[Georg Ebner]

Until September the parties can make joint lists in order to get more seats.
RedGreen cooperates as usual basically everywhere:

...and partly also with the GreenLiberals:

TheMid has chosen GLP or FDP:

The coalitions of SVP&FDP are so far less dense, but have nonetheless been exploding from the just 3 of last time:

The reason is clear: In order to rescue its 2nd minister FDP has to stay also by seats ahead of TheMid and must hope to get with SVP (close to) 124/246 MPs. In 2019 SVP alone lost several seats - often narrowly - due to the lack of partners.

[aargauer]

Im still struggling to understand why Die Mitte exist, never mind why they are in a close three way fight for second place.

Is that a SVP/FDP/Mitte joint list in Genf?

I Wonder if greenchristian would like the EVP - Protestant economic left social conservatives

[greenchristian]

Aug 6, 2023 16:07:28 GMT aargauer said:

I Wonder if greenchristian would like the EVP - Protestant economic left social conservatives

I'm instinctively sceptical of political parties who label themselves as Christian, since they seem to be implying that God backs their political agenda (the reality is that Christians can legitimately take a wide range of political views). But economic left and moderately socially conservative (relative to 21st century Western society) would be pretty much my ideal mix, dependent on the details and their stance on environmental issues.

So based on your minimalist description of them there's a decent chance that I'd have a positive opinion of them.

[aargauer]

Aug 7, 2023 6:27:48 GMT greenchristian said:

Aug 6, 2023 16:07:28 GMT aargauer said:

I Wonder if greenchristian would like the EVP - Protestant economic left social conservatives

I'm instinctively sceptical of political parties who label themselves as Christian, since they seem to be implying that God backs their political agenda (the reality is that Christians can legitimately take a wide range of political views). But economic left and moderately socially conservative (relative to 21st century Western society) would be pretty much my ideal mix, dependent on the details and their stance on environmental issues.

So based on your minimalist description of them there's a decent chance that I'd have a positive opinion of them.

Well its fairly hard social conservative on abortion, gay marriage, but decidedly progressive on immigration and the environment. On economics its anything between left and centre depending on the issue and candidate - overall more centre-left than left. 

You'd also have the green party and the green liberal (likely to be too right wing for you - some representatives are outright right wing on economics) to choose from. 

[right]

Aug 7, 2023 6:27:48 GMT greenchristian said:

Aug 6, 2023 16:07:28 GMT aargauer said:

I Wonder if greenchristian would like the EVP - Protestant economic left social conservatives

I'm instinctively sceptical of political parties who label themselves as Christian, since they seem to be implying that God backs their political agenda (the reality is that Christians can legitimately take a wide range of political views). But economic left and moderately socially conservative (relative to 21st century Western society) would be pretty much my ideal mix, dependent on the details and their stance on environmental issues.

So based on your minimalist description of them there's a decent chance that I'd have a positive opinion of them.

And your name is?

[aargauer]

Aug 8, 2023 16:49:32 GMT right said:

Aug 7, 2023 6:27:48 GMT greenchristian said:

I'm instinctively sceptical of political parties who label themselves as Christian, since they seem to be implying that God backs their political agenda (the reality is that Christians can legitimately take a wide range of political views). But economic left and moderately socially conservative (relative to 21st century Western society) would be pretty much my ideal mix, dependent on the details and their stance on environmental issues.

So based on your minimalist description of them there's a decent chance that I'd have a positive opinion of them.

And your name is?

He is claiming to be green and Christian separately I think rather than attaching religions name to the Green Party.

[Georg Ebner]

SwitzerLand will elect both chambers tomorrow. As usual there has been incredibly much inStability and drama and nailBiting going on:

The pollster will doubtlessly be far off, just as in 2019:

At least, the only exciting federal election - the indirect one of the ministers in December - will be influenced by tomorrow: If TheMid will pass FDP - what would be "historic": their preDeCessors, the Cath.Cons., had never been able to achieve that -, they could get FDP's second minister. (TheMid's partyPresident Pfister ruled out to deselect sitting ministers, but he is on the party's right fringe and the left would surely offer support.) Personally i assume, that TheMid will succeed, because it has recently had the momentum and there has been a variety of themes during the campaign, but not FDP's favourite issue ("It's the economy, stupid!").
SVP topping the record since the introDuction of PR in 1919 - its 29.4% received 2015 - is possible, yet unlikely.
Whoever suffers from inSomnia should watch public broadCaster SRF's coverage, starting already at 12.00 MET. (The vast majority votes per post, some pollingStations open for just half an hour...)

[Georg Ebner]

More exciting are allWays the elections to the Senate ("StändeRat"), which is anyWay the more powerful chamber.
Here is a historical overView since demoCratization 1848 of
- parties:


- ideological blocs:


The writing denotes the party/bloc, the backGround-colour the faction/caucus someone was sitting in.

[Georg Ebner]

Hard to get an overView, of course, but so far the SVP-gains and GPS-losses have been severer than anticipated (at least by me).

LiveTicker of the publicBroadCaster:

www.srf.ch/news/schweiz/wahlen-2023/liveticker-wahlen-2023-svp-gewinnt-auf-breiter-front-gruene-verlieren-massiv

[Devil Wincarnate]

Mouvement citoyen genevois (hard-right) are back. They were turfed out in 2019.

[Georg Ebner]

Some proJections saw initially a plus for SVP of 6% (!), which fell to +4% (29.9%) at 14:30. Due to low gains for them in the more urban parts of Zurich/...
Contrary to my expectations TheMid will end clearly behind FDP.

Soon the first official proJection of GfS.Bern will be announced.

[Georg Ebner]

ProJection at 14.30:

29.9% (+4.3%) SVP; gains especially in the inner West (BS-JU-NE-FR-VS)
17.4% (+0.6%) SPS; gains especially in the outer West (GE-VD-NE)
14.8% (-0.2%) FDP
13.7% (-0.1%) TheMid
09.1% (-4.1%) GPS; losses especially in subUrban areas (BL, VD, ZH, GE)
06.8% (-1.0%) GreenLiberals
08.3% others

[Georg Ebner]

GfS.Bern came out with its first official proJection:

29.0% (+3.4%) SVP
17.2% (+0.4%) SPS
14.7% (+0.9%) TheMid
14.6% (-0.5%) FDP
09.1% (-4.1%) GPS
07.1% (-0.7%) GLP
02.0% (-0.1%) EVP
01.3% (+0.3%) EDU
00.8% (-0.2%) Sol./PT
00.5% (-0.3%) LT
03.7% (+0.9%) others

Suddenly TheMid is minimally ahead of FDP.

[Devil Wincarnate]

SVP take a seat from SP in Graubünden. But it was a Mitte figure, Martin Candinas, who topped the poll.

Candinas is the president of the Nationalrat and a native Romansh speaker.

[Georg Ebner]

2nd proGnosis of BfS.Bern has little changes.
So out of nowhere a sharper shift to the right than expected (~1.5% more).
SVP&FDP<&MCG&EDU won't receive the record-high 101/200 of 2015 (shortly after the massImMigration of asylumSeekers), but ~95.
Partly really strong showings of SVP - in (sure: non-urban) AarGau its 16 candidates seem to have got more preFerence-votes than all others.

[rcronald]

Oct 22, 2023 16:40:43 GMT Georg Ebner said:

2nd proGnosis of BfS.Bern has little changes.
So out of nowhere a sharper shift to the right than expected (~1.5% more).
SVP&FDP<&MCG&EDU won't receive the record-high 101/200 of 2015 (shortly after the massImMigration of asylumSeekers), but ~95.
Partly really strong showings of SVP - in (sure: non-urban) AarGau its 16 candidates seem to have got more preFerence-votes than all others.

Die Mitte and FDP are also winning a (slightly) higher vote share than what the polls said they would. (Especially the FDP, who were clearly losing votes in poll after poll)

[Georg Ebner]

Oct 22, 2023 16:49:43 GMT rcronald said:

Oct 22, 2023 16:40:43 GMT Georg Ebner said:

2nd proGnosis of BfS.Bern has little changes.
So out of nowhere a sharper shift to the right than expected (~1.5% more).
SVP&FDP<&MCG&EDU won't receive the record-high 101/200 of 2015 (shortly after the massImMigration of asylumSeekers), but ~95.
Partly really strong showings of SVP - in (sure: non-urban) AarGau its 16 candidates seem to have got more preFerence-votes than all others.

Die Mitte and FDP are also winning a (slightly) higher vote share than what the polls said they would. (Especially the FDP, who were clearly losing votes in poll after poll)

Indeed. Here the misses in the few opinionPolls conducted since 2019:

[rcronald]

Looks like the clearly right-of-centre parties (SVP+FDP+EDU+MCG+LEGA) received 95 seats, up 11 from 2019.