Swiss federal election 2023

[rcronald]

The 2nd round in Geneva is going to be very interesting.

[Georg Ebner]

%-changes 2019-vs.-2023:
SVP:

SPS:

TheMid (yes, they ended ahead of FDP [by 0.2%]):

FDP:

GPS:

GLP:

[Devil Wincarnate]

Oct 22, 2023 18:53:31 GMT rcronald said:

The 2nd round in Geneva is going to be very interesting.

MCG ended up with 2 seats. A pretty successful night for them.

I love the fact that Ticino is so right-wing that the SVP are outflanked from the right.

[Georg Ebner]

Oct 22, 2023 22:26:25 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Oct 22, 2023 18:53:31 GMT rcronald said:

The 2nd round in Geneva is going to be very interesting.

MCG ended up with 2 seats. A pretty successful night for them.

I love the fact that Ticino is so right-wing that the SVP are outflanked from the right.

In the recent past SVP-TI has gained a lot of traction - because it has outflanked LT from the right!

[Georg Ebner]

Pollster-perFormances:

Yes, they have only 2 regular pollsters and not more have been released in the last 4 years.
(Mid)left was over-, (mid)right under-polled by ~1% respectively. Still with deViations of 0.3%-0.6% per polled party precise as a Swiss watch.

[rcronald]

I’m saddened by Die Mitte’s success over the FDP.

[ibfc]

Oct 23, 2023 3:23:20 GMT rcronald said:

I’m saddened by Die Mitte’s success over the FDP.

Any idea why it happened?

[rcronald]

Oct 23, 2023 3:37:15 GMT ibfc said:

Oct 23, 2023 3:23:20 GMT rcronald said:

I’m saddened by Die Mitte’s success over the FDP.

Any idea why it happened?

Seems to me like the SVP ate into their vote in the French speaking Cantons.
(But I’m not an expert on Swiss politics to say the least)

[Georg Ebner]

Oct 23, 2023 3:23:20 GMT rcronald said:

I’m saddened by Die Mitte’s success over the FDP.

Having in mind, how criminally the Radicals behaved around 1846, broke the laws and suppressed the Cath.Cons., i cannot be without some joy. But that's tempi passati - i know, that TheMid is not even against abOrtion/... (and it's exactly those ex"Christ"democrats, who have been ruining the Church by adapting it to the secular world). 

[rcronald]

Oct 23, 2023 3:52:09 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Oct 23, 2023 3:23:20 GMT rcronald said:

I’m saddened by Die Mitte’s success over the FDP.

Having in mind, how criminally the Radicals behaved around 1846, broke the laws and suppressed the Cath.Cons., i cannot be without some joy. But that's tempi passati - i know, that TheMid is not even against abOrtion/... (and it's exactly those ex"Christ"democrats, who have been ruining the Church by adapting it to the secular world). 

Most “Christian Democratic” parties today are a joke.

[Georg Ebner]

Oct 23, 2023 3:37:15 GMT ibfc said:

Oct 23, 2023 3:23:20 GMT rcronald said:

I’m saddened by Die Mitte’s success over the FDP.

Any idea why it happened?

The opinionPolls had forecast a narrow race. FDP has been hurt by the CreditSuisse-bankRuptcy, the exploding costs for health-inSurance and, that the ecoNomy runs well (for now).

[rcronald]

Oct 23, 2023 3:56:06 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Oct 23, 2023 3:37:15 GMT ibfc said:

Any idea why it happened?

The opinionPolls had forecast a narrow race. FDP has been hurt by the CreditSuisse-bankRuptcy, the exploding costs for health-inSurance and, that the ecoNomy runs well (for now).

The FDP actually performed slightly better than the last opinion polls showed they would.

[rcronald]

Btw, where did the new Die Mitte votes come from? Because based on the Cantonial results, they didn't come from the FDP or the SVP.

[Georg Ebner]

Oct 23, 2023 3:48:12 GMT rcronald said:

Oct 23, 2023 3:37:15 GMT ibfc said:

Any idea why it happened?

Seems to me like the SVP ate into their vote in the French speaking Cantons.
(But I’m not an expert on Swiss politics to say the least)

We do unfortunately not have maps of turnOut(change).
My guess is, that the vast bulk of SVP-gains comes from increased participation on the land, where it had imploded last time (when farmers&families were not so excited by climateChance causing misHarvests). And that it was mainly direct moves from FDP to TheMid, which were small, but decisive. The pollsters recorded these, at least immediately after the CS-debacle.

[Georg Ebner]

Oct 23, 2023 4:05:30 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Oct 23, 2023 3:48:12 GMT rcronald said:

Seems to me like the SVP ate into their vote in the French speaking Cantons.
(But I’m not an expert on Swiss politics to say the least)

We do unfortunately not have maps of turnOut(change).
My guess is, that the vast bulk of SVP-gains comes from increased participation on the land, where it had imploded last time (when farmers&families were not so excited by climateChance causing misHarvests). And that it was mainly direct moves from FDP to TheMid, which were small, but decisive. The pollsters recorded these, at least immediately after the CS-debacle.

We must remember, that CH is - like the other old liberal democracy: the USA - a country with just 50% turnOut. So certain groups becoming more/less active plays a bigger role than elsewhere.

[Georg Ebner]

Oct 23, 2023 4:05:30 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Oct 23, 2023 3:48:12 GMT rcronald said:

Seems to me like the SVP ate into their vote in the French speaking Cantons.
(But I’m not an expert on Swiss politics to say the least)

it was mainly direct moves from FDP to TheMid, which were small, but decisive. The pollsters recorded these, at least immediately after the CS-debacle.

The thing is, that journalists love to speak of a monolithic right bloc (=SVP&FDP) versus the others -  yet, the reality has been different; cf. the positions of factions in the big chamber according to specialists:

...or, how the NationalRat-candidates answered questionnaires (though the picture is misleading, as they labelled the opPosition to "Konservativ" with "Liberal" instead of "Progressiv"):



Of course: In WestEurope the politicians are usually hyper-PoliticallyCorrect and their voters act less so, cf. this survey (unfortunately ending 2015):



From voteTransfers of former elections we know, that in exCalvinistic cantons FDP-voters tend more to SVP, in exCatholic ones more to CVP (what is ironic, as in the latter the FDP had traditionally been more radical/antiClerical...). In sum i would guess, that 50-60% of FDP-voters would prefer going to SVP than to TheMid or GLP. But the others, who would defect to TheMid, do also exist.

[rcronald]

Oct 23, 2023 5:11:30 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Oct 23, 2023 4:05:30 GMT Georg Ebner said:

it was mainly direct moves from FDP to TheMid, which were small, but decisive. The pollsters recorded these, at least immediately after the CS-debacle.

The thing is, that journalists love to speak of a monolithic right bloc (=SVP&FDP) versus the others -  yet, the reality has been different; cf. the positions of factions in the big chamber according to specialists:

...or, how the NationalRat-candidates answered questionnaires (though the picture is misleading, as they labelled the opPosition to "Konservativ" with "Liberal" instead of "Progressiv"):



Of course: In WestEurope the politicians are usually hyper-PoliticallyCorrect and their voters act less so, cf. this survey (unfortunately ending 2015):



From voteTransfers of former elections we know, that in exCalvinistic cantons FDP-voters tend more to SVP, in exCatholic ones more to CVP (what is ironic, as in the latter the FDP had traditionally been more radical/antiClerical...). In sum i would guess, that 50-60% of FDP-voters would prefer going to SVP than to TheMid or GLP. But the others, who would defect to TheMid, do also exist.

Die Mitte is also more right-leaning in Catholic Cantons, so it makes sense that FDP voters feel more comfortable with them in Catholic Cantons.

Btw, what's LDP?

[Georg Ebner]

Oct 23, 2023 5:22:50 GMT rcronald said:

Oct 23, 2023 5:11:30 GMT Georg Ebner said:

The thing is, that journalists love to speak of a monolithic right bloc (=SVP&FDP) versus the others -  yet, the reality has been different; cf. the positions of factions in the big chamber according to specialists:
...or, how the NationalRat-candidates answered questionnaires (though the picture is misleading, as they labelled the opPosition to "Konservativ" with "Liberal" instead of "Progressiv"):

Of course: In WestEurope the politicians are usually hyper-PoliticallyCorrect and their voters act less so, cf. this survey (unfortunately ending 2015):

From voteTransfers of former elections we know, that in exCalvinistic cantons FDP-voters tend more to SVP, in exCatholic ones more to CVP (what is ironic, as in the latter the FDP had traditionally been more radical/antiClerical...). In sum i would guess, that 50-60% of FDP-voters would prefer going to SVP than to TheMid or GLP. But the others, who would defect to TheMid, do also exist.

Die Mitte is also more right-leaning in Catholic Cantons, so it makes sense that FDP voters feel more comfortable with them in Catholic Cantons.

Btw, what's LDP?

Yes, TheMid is there more conservativ than in the diaSpora. But with the lack of more radical movements (socialists&communists) in the catholic mountainCantons the FDP was there their hated archEnemy: "The Radicals", "The Reds" (has partly been FDP's colour until recently!).
LDP is nowadays only in BasleCity alive and is the only relict of the LiberalParty (LPS), which was initially the party of the antidemocratic liberal-conservative patricians in the calvinistic cities of the west (apart from Basle ["Daig"] only in the Romandie: Geneve, NeuChatel, Vaud). With the educated establishment's move to the left, they ended before the fusion with FDP clearly to the latter's left (not necessarily economically, but they were strictly antiBlocher, proEU aso.). The exact title of FDP is in reMiniscence to them "FDP.DieLiberalen".

[Georg Ebner]

Oct 23, 2023 5:11:30 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Oct 23, 2023 4:05:30 GMT Georg Ebner said:

it was mainly direct moves from FDP to TheMid, which were small, but decisive. The pollsters recorded these, at least immediately after the CS-debacle.

The thing is, that journalists love to speak of a monolithic right bloc (=SVP&FDP) versus the others -  yet, the reality has been different; cf. the positions of factions in the big chamber according to specialists:
...or, how the NationalRat-candidates answered questionnaires (though the picture is misleading, as they labelled the opPosition to "Konservativ" with "Liberal" instead of "Progressiv"):
Of course: In WestEurope the politicians are usually hyper-PoliticallyCorrect and their voters act less so, cf. this survey (unfortunately ending 2015):



From voteTransfers of former elections we know, that in exCalvinistic cantons FDP-voters tend more to SVP, in exCatholic ones more to CVP (what is ironic, as in the latter the FDP had traditionally been more radical/antiClerical...). In sum i would guess, that 50-60% of FDP-voters would prefer going to SVP than to TheMid or GLP. But the others, who would defect to TheMid, do also exist.

Found on this topic something from 2011 (polled by Sotomo):

So at least the FDP-leadership (dark dot) has been very close to CVP/TheMid and far away from SVP.

[rcronald]

Oct 23, 2023 5:50:48 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Oct 23, 2023 5:11:30 GMT Georg Ebner said:

The thing is, that journalists love to speak of a monolithic right bloc (=SVP&FDP) versus the others -  yet, the reality has been different; cf. the positions of factions in the big chamber according to specialists:
...or, how the NationalRat-candidates answered questionnaires (though the picture is misleading, as they labelled the opPosition to "Konservativ" with "Liberal" instead of "Progressiv"):
Of course: In WestEurope the politicians are usually hyper-PoliticallyCorrect and their voters act less so, cf. this survey (unfortunately ending 2015):



From voteTransfers of former elections we know, that in exCalvinistic cantons FDP-voters tend more to SVP, in exCatholic ones more to CVP (what is ironic, as in the latter the FDP had traditionally been more radical/antiClerical...). In sum i would guess, that 50-60% of FDP-voters would prefer going to SVP than to TheMid or GLP. But the others, who would defect to TheMid, do also exist.

Found on this topic something from 2011 (polled by Sotomo):

So at least the FDP-leadership (dark dot) has been very close to CVP/TheMid and far away from SVP.

I love how Switzerland has 2 Green parties, one for the loony left and one for liberals.