Swiss federal election 2023

[Georg Ebner]

Tomorrow will happen runOffs for 7 seats in 4 cantons for the Swiss Senate ("StändeRat"). The more interesting races (Zurich aso.) will follow next sunDay.
In Fribourg/Freiburg an unknown SPS-woMan has little chances to unseat the 2 female inCumbents:

In Vaud the new, yet prominent FDPer should easily hold the seat for his party:

In Valais/Wallis TheMid will - despite all trends away from the old CVP - keep both:

Geneve could be the only closer race - the Greeny will be reelected, but the relatively popular Poggia of MCG could unseat the SPS-inCumbent (contrary to UDC=SVP MCG has traditionally been economically socialistic, so if the rightLiberals of PLR=FDP hold their nose and some leftPopulists turn over, a surprise will still be unlikely, but not impossible):

[Georg Ebner]

VS & VD & FR as expected (but in FR the PLR=FDP-inCumbent was only narrowly reelected).
In Geneve Poggia was indeed elected, but it was not even close and - second surprise - the PSS=SPS-inc. landed ahead of the inCumbent from TheGreens.

[rcronald]

Nov 11, 2023 21:50:54 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Tomorrow will happen runOffs for 7 seats in 4 cantons for the Swiss Senate ("StändeRat"). The more interesting races (Zurich aso.) will follow next sunDay.
In Fribourg/Freiburg an unknown SPS-woMan has little chances to unseat the 2 female inCumbents:

In Vaud the new, yet prominent FDPer should easily hold the seat for his party:

In Valais/Wallis TheMid will - despite all trends away from the old CVP - keep both:

Geneve could be the only closer race - the Greeny will be reelected, but the relatively popular Poggia of MCG could unseat the SPS-inCumbent (contrary to UDC=SVP MCG has traditionally been economically socialistic, so if the rightLiberals of PLR=FDP hold their nose and some leftPopulists turn over, a surprise will still be unlikely, but not impossible):

I’m not sure when it happened, but Salzmann-SVP (I), and Wasserfallen-SP won in Bern.

Edit: The 2nd round was uncontested…

[Georg Ebner]

Nov 12, 2023 16:14:44 GMT rcronald said:

Nov 11, 2023 21:50:54 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Tomorrow will happen runOffs for 7 seats in 4 cantons for the Swiss Senate ("StändeRat"). The more interesting races (Zurich aso.) will follow next sunDay.
In Fribourg/Freiburg an unknown SPS-woMan has little chances to unseat the 2 female inCumbents:
In Vaud the new, yet prominent FDPer should easily hold the seat for his party:
In Valais/Wallis TheMid will - despite all trends away from the old CVP - keep both:
Geneve could be the only closer race - the Greeny will be reelected, but the relatively popular Poggia of MCG could unseat the SPS-inCumbent (contrary to UDC=SVP MCG has traditionally been economically socialistic, so if the rightLiberals of PLR=FDP hold their nose and some leftPopulists turn over, a surprise will still be unlikely, but not impossible):

I’m not sure when it happened, but Salzmann-SVP (I), and Wasserfallen-SP won in Bern.

Edit: The 2nd round was uncontested…

Yes, it was a "silent election", i.e. unopposed. The "bourgeois" parties had before some hope to get both senators, but the result for Mrs. Wasserfallen was just too good for having a real chance. With the very left city plus subUrbs like Köniz and then Biel/Bienne the canton votes despite its conservative image actually to the left of CH as a whole (which is still enough for "bourgeois" majorities, though).

[Georg Ebner]

Results of toDay's runOffs (thankfully taken from de.wikipedia):
Fribourg/Freiburg:

Geneve:

Vaud:

Valais/Wallis:

[Georg Ebner]

Historical overView (senators since 1848):

[Georg Ebner]

Not uninteresting to break down the results in the 2 cantons, which have a certain german minority.
Valais/Wallis:



Fribourg/Freiburg:




Even within Fribourg's bilingual district See/Lac (in the canton's NE) there are sharp differences between the languageGroups. And this, although the german part has certainly more commuters (BernCity!).

[Georg Ebner]

Tomorrow will be for the Senate ("StändeRat") 6 runOffs in 5 cantons. Here the senators since 1848:





And the results in round I:





With the Ind. in Schaffhausen sitting in the SVP-faction SVP runs in all 5, but only their partyPresident is in Ticino safe. The mentioned Ind. will probably lose against the SPS, the same in Solothurn (but both seem to be close). In Zurich the GreenLiberals are highly favoured to win against a prominent (=polemical) SVPer (as in 2007), because TheMid is neutral and even the FDP is split (their woMen don't endorse him). In AarGau, which is per se SVP-friendly, they nominated a too young candidate. In Ticino the GPS-woMan won't be able to defend the SPS-seat, FDP has also little chances, TheMid will quite certainly regain the seat lost last time. Likely outCome:
- Ticino: SVP (inc.) + TheMid (gain from SPS)
- Solothurn: SPS (no change) ?
- SchaffHausen: SPS (gain from SVP-Ind.) ?
- AarGau: TheMid (regaining from SVP a senator lost 28 years ago)
- Zurich: GreenLiberals (regaining a seat lost 8 years ago; first time ever, FDP-ZH won't be represented in the Senate)

[Georg Ebner]

The runOffs turned out in the expected way: With 4/5 candidates not elected and thus 2 seats lost, SVP's storm on the "Stöckli" (=Senate) failed once more.

[mrpastelito]

Well done, Georg.

[Georg Ebner]

Participation in cantons:

%-deViations,
- canton minus CH-average:

- canton divided by CH-average:

[Georg Ebner]

Party-%:

%-changes:

[Georg Ebner]

Right-minus-Left:

[Georg Ebner]

Participation:

[Georg Ebner]

Settlements,
- old classification:
-- rural:

-- urban:

- new classification:

[Georg Ebner]

LanguageGroups: