Jamie
Non-Aligned
Posts: 299 
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Post by Jamie on Nov 3, 2020 19:28:10 GMT
Did you also see the Quinnipiac poll of Florida I put in the main thread?
It said that Trump would win on-the-day voters 3 to 1 and still lose the election there.
And registration =/= who you vote. Hilary would have won Kentucky and West Virginia in 2016 if that was the case (she didn't!).
I think it really is impossible to say there whether the numbers are good for Trump or Biden. We'll find out in not too long though.
Hopefully you're right! I just get the feeling the Dems will run up the score in all the wrong places and just about lose the EC. No trump will never win. He’ll be lucky if he holds onto Texas and Georgia. |
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Post by greenchristian on Nov 4, 2020 0:47:21 GMT
If Joe Biden wins, windmill cancer will censor traditional values apparently
Black Lives Matter will vaccinate my religion.
So a Biden win will end the pandemic?  |
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Izzyeviel
Lib Dem
I stayed up for Hartlepools
Posts: 3,279
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Post by Izzyeviel on Nov 4, 2020 2:26:10 GMT
Told you so
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,824
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Post by Georg Ebner on Nov 4, 2020 9:43:18 GMT
At a first glance i would have guessed, that Trump would do much, much better than polled. Yet, it seems, that 50% have never been open to him. Thus:  At least my beginning was not so false... Even if the PopularVote-margin will end up at 2% as in 2016, that means, that most pollsters were - contrary to the harmless 1-2% last time - 5-10% off! What puts the whole PollingIndustry into question (except very few OutSiders, who predicted perhaps rather coincidentally correctly). And a sounding defeat for the ChattingClass - 4 years of hate&hysteria might have ended Trump's career narrowliest, but did not even reduce his VoteShare, let alone his total number of votes. |
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,772
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Post by J.G.Harston on Nov 4, 2020 9:57:34 GMT
And a sounding defeat for the ChattingClass - 4 years of hate&hysteria might have ended Trump's career narrowliest, but did not even reduce his VoteShare, let alone his total number of votes. "We screamed at people that they were bigots, we burned down their homes and businesses, we demanded anarchy, how have we lost, we don't understand, what more could we have done? ? ?" |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
Member is Online
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 4, 2020 11:08:50 GMT
Not looking impossible it could be the 2016 EV margin, but reversed. Anybody have that?
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Izzyeviel
Lib Dem
I stayed up for Hartlepools
Posts: 3,279
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Post by Izzyeviel on Nov 4, 2020 11:09:04 GMT
Looking at the data so far, i have a hunch the polls are fundamentally wrong. A narrow Trump win.  This was my final prediction map which I posted yesterday on another site, shortly before polls closed. Its the old school colours, Dems in red, Reps in blue. |
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Post by relique on Nov 4, 2020 11:30:51 GMT
New prediction, just for fun:
Trump win after a 5/4 ruling by the US Supreme Court dismissing some Pennsylvania ballots.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 4, 2020 11:32:25 GMT
Looking at the data so far, i have a hunch the polls are fundamentally wrong. A narrow Trump win. This was my final prediction map which I posted yesterday on another site, shortly before polls closed. Its the old school colours, Dems in red, Reps in blue. Please let Nevada go the other way |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Nov 4, 2020 11:33:53 GMT
Looking at the data so far, i have a hunch the polls are fundamentally wrong. A narrow Trump win. This was my final prediction map which I posted yesterday on another site, shortly before polls closed. Its the old school colours, Dems in red, Reps in blue. Nah, Nevada will be red. 269 - 269  |
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,435
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Post by iain on Nov 4, 2020 11:40:56 GMT
This was my final prediction map which I posted yesterday on another site, shortly before polls closed. Its the old school colours, Dems in red, Reps in blue. Please let Nevada go the other way NE-2 has already gone for Biden I’m afraid! |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 4, 2020 11:50:25 GMT
Please let Nevada go the other way NE-2 has already gone for Biden I’m afraid! There's still a narrow path to me winning £1.6k  |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
Member is Online
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 4, 2020 11:57:50 GMT
New prediction, just for fun: Trump win after a 5/4 ruling by the US Supreme Court dismissing some Pennsylvania ballots. Good luck with the consequences of that one  |
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Post by relique on Nov 4, 2020 11:59:48 GMT
New prediction, just for fun: Trump win after a 5/4 ruling by the US Supreme Court dismissing some Pennsylvania ballots. Good luck with the consequences of that one Well the 58th installation of the franchise "United States next President" might be "US next president: Civil War 2". |
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cj
Socialist
These fragments I have shored against my ruins
Posts: 3,285
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Post by cj on Nov 4, 2020 20:22:28 GMT
New prediction, just for fun: Trump win after a 5/4 ruling by the US Supreme Court dismissing some Pennsylvania ballots. Well why pack a court if you're not going to use it |
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Post by johnloony on Nov 5, 2020 21:43:40 GMT
I predict Biden 306 Trump 232
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Post by greenchristian on Nov 5, 2020 22:19:06 GMT
I predict a riot.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Nov 6, 2020 11:18:02 GMT
Biden to win 306 - 232. He'll ger PA, but not FL or GA Bump although it look like I got GA wrong |
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Post by thirdchill on Nov 6, 2020 13:02:49 GMT
Still on, if Biden wins PA, AZ, NV, GA and Trump wins NC. Did Maine's 2nd district go to Trump? |
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,435
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Post by iain on Nov 6, 2020 13:07:51 GMT
Still on, if Biden wins PA, AZ, NV, GA and Trump wins NC. Did Maine's 2nd district go to Trump? Not yet called, but yes - excellent prediction! |
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