Unless there's a substantial polling error Michigan and Wisconsin are flipping back, and I don't see anything to be very alarmed about about Minnesota, Nevada or New Hampshire. I've put NE-2 in this category as well based on suggestions of suburban swing and some polling evidence.
Pennsylvania looks slightly closer, and may be critical. Polls suggest Biden is ahead in Arizona, and less convincingly in North Carolina and Georgia. I don't trust Florida, but the polling evidence suggests it's in this category too. Polling evidence, and a suspicion AV is a mild help, make me put ME-2 in this category.
Ohio and Iowa seem to have moved more away from the Democrats and polling suggests Trump is slightly ahead in these. I'm indecisive about Texas, but I decided to go for the cautious prediction.
Then there are the long shots for Biden. Indiana went for Obama in 2008, but there's not much sign that's going to be repeated. Alaska could be unpredictable but it hasn't voted Democrat since 1964. Kansas and Montana might be close but again they're surely tough for Biden to actually win. Utah's Mormons may not be that keen on Trump but there's not much evidence they'll actually vote Democrat in big enough numbers. South Carolina is probably too racially polarised to have a big swing. I put NE-1 in this category basically because of lack of polling, but it's not that different from Kansas demographically.
I'm still pretty happy with my map the day before the election.
The only change I'd like to make is Iowa as lean Trump rather than lean Biden.
Other changes I would be tempted to make, but won't, are Michigan and Wisconsin from likely to lean Biden, and New Hampshire from safe Biden to likely Biden (Nothing's changed, but maybe I am being too bullish). I also might have been tempted to change Texas from lean Trump to tilt Trump if there'd be one more decent pollster in the state this week showing it within a few points..
There are a few tough really races to call. I feel we are about here at the moment though.
My senate prediction:
In some regards, this is even more difficult than the presidential one. There are a lot of close races and the GOP retaining control or the Democrats winning 54/55 seats are all quite possible. So many new/ additional voters will mean a lot more straight ticket voting, though some candidate will still have very strong personal votes. My prediction is 51-49, but several states are close.
The most likely to change, for me, are IA from tilt D to tilt R and the two Georgia seats from tilt R to tilt D.