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Post by AdminSTB on Nov 1, 2020 23:57:18 GMT
Figured I might as well post my predictions for both the Presidential and the Senate contests:  Presidential Election Senate ElectionWe shall see how wrong I am in a few days...  |
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Post by manchesterman on Nov 2, 2020 0:33:42 GMT
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Post by manchesterman on Nov 2, 2020 0:35:06 GMT
Just imagine if my prediction came true and it turns out the Dems win the election on the basis of winning (a CD) in Nebraska!!  |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 2, 2020 0:40:22 GMT
Just imagine if my prediction came true and it turns out the Dems win the election on the basis of winning (a CD) in Nebraska!! By a single vote after 15 recounts and 4 court cases, with the final decision coming the day before inauguration |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Nov 2, 2020 0:41:08 GMT
Updated.  |
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,137 
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Post by Foggy on Nov 2, 2020 1:09:27 GMT
Just imagine if my prediction came true and it turns out the Dems win the election on the basis of winning (a CD) in Nebraska!! Is that preferable to winning a cassette or a vinyl record? |
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Post by manchesterman on Nov 2, 2020 1:19:23 GMT
Could be a CD by "Swing (state) Out Sister" |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Nov 2, 2020 8:00:53 GMT
Just imagine if my prediction came true and it turns out the Dems win the election on the basis of winning (a CD) in Nebraska!! Is that preferable to winning a cassette or a vinyl record? It'd give the Dems A Reason To Believe. Maybe their Boss will get into that Mansion On The (Capitol) Hill? The count will be Open All Night - let's hope the State Troopers aren't needed. |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Nov 2, 2020 8:01:15 GMT
Could be a CD by "Swing (state) Out Sister"
That made me think of this song by Shakespears Sister, I wonder if Trump is singing this?
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Post by jm on Nov 2, 2020 10:36:45 GMT
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,913
Member is Online
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Post by YL on Nov 2, 2020 13:24:00 GMT
Not very different from a lot of others:  Unless there's a substantial polling error Michigan and Wisconsin are flipping back, and I don't see anything to be very alarmed about about Minnesota, Nevada or New Hampshire. I've put NE-2 in this category as well based on suggestions of suburban swing and some polling evidence. Pennsylvania looks slightly closer, and may be critical. Polls suggest Biden is ahead in Arizona, and less convincingly in North Carolina and Georgia. I don't trust Florida, but the polling evidence suggests it's in this category too. Polling evidence, and a suspicion AV is a mild help, make me put ME-2 in this category. Ohio and Iowa seem to have moved more away from the Democrats and polling suggests Trump is slightly ahead in these. I'm indecisive about Texas, but I decided to go for the cautious prediction. Then there are the long shots for Biden. Indiana went for Obama in 2008, but there's not much sign that's going to be repeated. Alaska could be unpredictable but it hasn't voted Democrat since 1964. Kansas and Montana might be close but again they're surely tough for Biden to actually win. Utah's Mormons may not be that keen on Trump but there's not much evidence they'll actually vote Democrat in big enough numbers. South Carolina is probably too racially polarised to have a big swing. I put NE-1 in this category basically because of lack of polling, but it's not that different from Kansas demographically. |
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,850
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Post by johng on Nov 2, 2020 13:44:09 GMT
I'm still pretty happy with my map the day before the election. The only change I'd like to make is Iowa as lean Trump rather than lean Biden.
Other changes I would be tempted to make, but won't, are Michigan and Wisconsin from likely to lean Biden, and New Hampshire from safe Biden to likely Biden (Nothing's changed, but maybe I am being too bullish). I also might have been tempted to change Texas from lean Trump to tilt Trump if there'd be one more decent pollster in the state this week showing it within a few points..
My final prediction is Biden 351 - Trump 187.
There are a few tough really races to call. I feel we are about here at the moment though.
My senate prediction: In some regards, this is even more difficult than the presidential one. There are a lot of close races and the GOP retaining control or the Democrats winning 54/55 seats are all quite possible. So many new/ additional voters will mean a lot more straight ticket voting, though some candidate will still have very strong personal votes. My prediction is 51-49, but several states are close.
The most likely to change, for me, are IA from tilt D to tilt R and the two Georgia seats from tilt R to tilt D.
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Post by seanryanj on Nov 2, 2020 13:55:57 GMT
Biden 305 trump 233
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Post by gwynthegriff on Nov 2, 2020 14:05:51 GMT
I don't usually indulge in predictions, but . . .
Biden to win his bankers and likelies - Colorado, N Hants, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Pennsylvania (which gives him 272 and a victory)
PLUS
Nevada, Arizona and Florida - giving him 318 (Trump 220).
Being a pessimist I see the rest staying with Trump, but Biden could well also pick up the Nebraska District, Maine-2 and N Carolina giving 335-203.
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Nov 2, 2020 19:04:10 GMT
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Post by No Offence Alan on Nov 2, 2020 19:11:28 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 2, 2020 19:16:52 GMT
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nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Nov 2, 2020 19:34:29 GMT
I'll just say Biden and leave electoral college numbers to everyone else
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mondialito
Labour
Everything is horribly, brutally possible.
Posts: 4,961
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Post by mondialito on Nov 2, 2020 20:29:56 GMT
I'd say Vermont or Maine. |
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cj
Socialist
These fragments I have shored against my ruins
Posts: 3,285
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Post by cj on Nov 2, 2020 21:59:03 GMT
If Joe Biden wins, windmill cancer will censor traditional values apparently
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